UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev

[Danis_champ]

So play Jaime submission and you get possibly 200+ odds. Why do you only play ML?

+200 Jamie sub is also awful price. He couldn't even sub kickboxer Ziam who has worse ground game than MJ.

Jamie has only 3 sub wins in his career and generally MJ has good getups and gets submitted by good and high level black belts.

 

[Stat_Collector]

+200 Jamie sub is also awful price. He couldn't even sub kickboxer Ziam who has worse ground game than MJ.

Jamie has only 3 sub wins in his career and generally MJ has good getups and gets submitted by good and high level black belts.

Mario Bautista tapped Brian Kellerher who had only tapped to black belts recently and Bautista had only 3 sub wins. It doesn't mean much , I expect Jaime to rock Mj at one point and land some hard left hooks and exhaust Mj to the point where he gives off his back.

And you can look below 2013 fights where Mj got tapped by no names.

Michael "The Menace" Johnson MMA Stats, Pictures, News, Videos, Biography - Sherdog.com

I'm also giving an est, a sub prop can go for 350+ for all i know.

As far ZIam is concern, Ziam is a tall lengthy fighter who is athletic. Just because he is a striker doesn't mean he should tap easy. Uriah hall didn't tap to Muniz.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Mario Bautista tapped Brian Kellerher who had only tapped to black belts recently and Bautista had only 3 sub wins. It doesn't mean much , I expect Jaime to rock Mj at one point and land some hard left hooks and exhaust Mj to the point where he gives off his back.

And you can look below 2013 fights where Mj got tapped by no names.

Michael "The Menace" Johnson MMA Stats, Pictures, News, Videos, Biography - Sherdog.com

I'm also giving an est, a sub prop can go for 350+ for all i know.

As far ZIam is concern, Ziam is a tall lengthy fighter who is athletic. Just because he is a striker doesn't mean he should tap easy. Uriah hall didn't tap to Muniz.

I'm not touching this fight with a barge pole, but I think if you're looking at fights from 9 years ago, then that's reaching.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'm not touching this fight with a barge pole, but I think if you're looking at fights from 9 years ago, then that's reaching.

its relevant that he has a history of taping, being submitted this many times through out your career is an indication of lack improvement in that area or an unwillingness to survive someone who is trying to tap you. I'm not 100 on a sub here, i'll probably play ITD or tko, but a juicy sub prop at 350+ or 500+ against a guy with 9 sub losses is a good play.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

its relevant that he has a history of taping, being submitted this many times through out your career is an indication of lack improvement in that area or an unwillingness to survive someone who is trying to tap you. I'm not 100 on a sub here, i'll probably play ITD or tko, but a juicy sub prop at 350+ or 500+ against a guy with 9 sub losses is a good play.

Is it when Mullarkey's last sub win was about 7 years ago?

 

[Stat_Collector]

Is it when Mullarkey's last sub win was about 7 years ago?

He had brad riddell in a rnc position in the third round in their fight when he rocked riddell, its one of his go to moves against a durable guy, Mj has a more durable chin than a durable sub defense. He might opt to finish the fight this way because he might feel mj is to durable to get tko'd on the ground.

 

[Stat_Collector]

seen drilling takedown to Rnc. its obvious this is his plan.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

View attachment 930698

View attachment 930699

seen drilling takedown to Rnc. its obvious this is his plan.

Still not touching it lol, hope you win though.

 

[mkess101]

Green has better head defense than Rda, but Rda is a better thai boxer imo. His kicks take more damage and I think he is better than green when it comes to using all his tools, grappling, kicking, punching, clinch. Bobby Green aint going to decision with colby,usman, and i think Felder would beat him. I still think Rda has lots of spring to him, he is like a glober teixera type.


im not gonna pretend rda got it in the bag. I like Rda to anchor some of my parlays. End the evening with a bang, but I also like to play fiziev ko prop rnds 1-3 and insert him at the top of a new parlay that proceeds to the next card. That's my play, i wont throw more than a few hundred here, i think this is the best way to play Rda, bet a mild spread and value play this.

I think you're underrating Bobby Green a bit. Once he stopped being a dumbass that just wanted to yap in the cage rather than fight, he's pretty much outstruck everyone he's gone up against. Including maybe Fisiev--fight was basically even. The Islam loss...well Islam basically does that to everyone. I absolutely think Green would go the distance with Colby and Usman. They'd both grapplef*ck him like they did RDA...and Bobby would lose handily but he wouldn't get finished imo. Felder vs Green would be a good fight.

RDA at his best was probably a better overall offensive striker than Green. On that I agree. More ways to do damage, more diverse. But unlike Green he doesn't shoulder roll punches well, he has defensive holes that Bobby doesn't. Green not only has great head movement but also reads and understands distance better. It allows him to keep his hands low because only truly elite MMA boxers are able to touch him. Fisiev being one.

I do think RDA's grappling could be the difference though. Those betting RDA at dog odds I think have to be banking on him using his grappling at some point to win a round or 2. Which makes perfect sense. I just don't think RDA's striking at this point (esp defensively) is at a level where he wants to be going toe to toe with a guy like Fisiev for long stretches.

 

[jnes]

its relevant that he has a history of taping, being submitted this many times through out your career is an indication of lack improvement in that area or an unwillingness to survive someone who is trying to tap you. I'm not 100 on a sub here, i'll probably play ITD or tko, but a juicy sub prop at 350+ or 500+ against a guy with 9 sub losses is a good play.

If a sub line like that comes out I’ll ride it with you.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I think you're underrating Bobby Green a bit. Once he stopped being a dumbass that just wanted to yap in the cage rather than fight, he's pretty much outstruck everyone he's gone up against. Including maybe Fisiev--fight was basically even. The Islam loss...well Islam basically does that to everyone. I absolutely think Green would go the distance with Colby and Usman. They'd both grapplef*ck him like they did RDA...and Bobby would lose handily but he wouldn't get finished imo. Felder vs Green would be a good fight.

RDA at his best was probably a better overall offensive striker than Green. On that I agree. More ways to do damage, more diverse. But unlike Green he doesn't shoulder roll punches well, he has defensive holes that Bobby doesn't. Green not only has great head movement but also reads and understands distance better. It allows him to keep his hands low because only truly elite MMA boxers are able to touch him. Fisiev being one.

I do think RDA's grappling could be the difference though. Those betting RDA at dog odds I think have to be banking on him using his grappling at some point to win a round or 2. Which makes perfect sense. I just don't think RDA's striking at this point (esp defensively) is at a level where he wants to be going toe to toe with a guy like Fisiev for long stretches.

Green lost at 170 to Francisco, and gets in close fights with mid level guys, rda out landed Colby at 170lb, Green is not a top rank guy and hits his ceiling below top 15. Fiziev might just go in there and mike tyson Rda. But a ko finish for Fiziev is 2/6 in his ufc resume, and against 1 top rank (10-15) he has a finish and 1 below that. He's gone to 3 round ud with mid level guys. I think the odds are in favor that Rda survives the first three rounds. I think if you bet fiziev to win by ko you have maybe a 33% chance of that happening. Not exact math obviously.

 

[mkess101]

Green lost at 170 to Francisco, and gets in close fights with mid level guys, rda out landed Colby at 170lb, Green is not a top rank guy and hits his ceiling below top 15. Fiziev might just go in there and mike tyson Rda. But a ko finish for Fiziev is 2/6 in his ufc resume, and against 1 top rank (10-15) he has a finish and 1 below that. He's gone to 3 round ud with mid level guys. I think the odds are in favor that Rda survives the first three rounds. I think if you bet fiziev to win by ko you have maybe a 33% chance of that happening. Not exact math obviously.

Green does seem to sometimes fight to the level of his opponents, I'll grant you that. He probably should have won decisions in almost all his losses over the past 4 years but that's another discussion.

Fisiev has KO's in 2 of his last 3 and the other fight was with Green who's only been finished with standing strikes once in his whole career (by an all time great, Poirier). I'm not sure how I'd cap the odds of Fisiev finishing RDA here. I'd have to dig a bit more.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I think you're underrating Bobby Green a bit. Once he stopped being a dumbass that just wanted to yap in the cage rather than fight, he's pretty much outstruck everyone he's gone up against. Including maybe Fisiev--fight was basically even. The Islam loss...well Islam basically does that to everyone. I absolutely think Green would go the distance with Colby and Usman. They'd both grapplef*ck him like they did RDA...and Bobby would lose handily but he wouldn't get finished imo. Felder vs Green would be a good fight.

RDA at his best was probably a better overall offensive striker than Green. On that I agree. More ways to do damage, more diverse. But unlike Green he doesn't shoulder roll punches well, he has defensive holes that Bobby doesn't. Green not only has great head movement but also reads and understands distance better. It allows him to keep his hands low because only truly elite MMA boxers are able to touch him. Fisiev being one.

I do think RDA's grappling could be the difference though. Those betting RDA at dog odds I think have to be banking on him using his grappling at some point to win a round or 2. Which makes perfect sense. I just don't think RDA's striking at this point (esp defensively) is at a level where he wants to be going toe to toe with a guy like Fisiev for long stretches.

Green has the absolute best torso movement in MMA when it comes to defensive striking. I don't think anyone can really replicate what he does that well.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Green does seem to sometimes fight to the level of his opponents, I'll grant you that. He probably should have won decisions in almost all his losses over the past 4 years but that's another discussion.

Fisiev has KO's in 2 of his last 3 and the other fight was with Green who's only been finished with standing strikes once in his whole career (by an all time great, Poirier). I'm not sure how I'd cap the odds of Fisiev finishing RDA here. I'd have to dig a bit more.

what is 2/6 in %

he's 1/1 against a top 10-15
1/4 below top ranks

 

[Thesnake101]

Boys, what are the thoughts on the first two fights of the card? I lean towards Lawrence and Kennedy, but the chins will be tested there.

Roberson at 205 I'm not convinced by even if he's flashed power there before (the KO of Spann + hurting Glover pretty bad before getting choked), and Nzechukwu is durable more often than not. Maybe tap the over depending on odds.

Lawrence I think is pretty legit but he has a knack for slowing down and getting tagged late, and Saidyokub can't ever be counted out. Maybe I'll pass, undecided yet.

 

[mkess101]

what is 2/6 in %

he's 1/1 against a top 10-15
1/4 below top ranks

I'm confused. You're saying to cap upcoming fights you should just use the percentages of fights that have already happened? And only in the UFC? Maybe that's not what you're saying. I don't cap that way at all. The end results of previous fights for sure matter, but they're only one of a bunch of different pieces of information that I'd use to cap an upcoming fight.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Boys, what are the thoughts on the first two fights of the card? I lean towards Lawrence and Kennedy, but the chins will be tested there.

Roberson at 205 I'm not convinced by even if he's flashed power there before (the KO of Spann + hurting Glover pretty bad before getting choked), and Nzechukwu is durable more often than not. Maybe tap the over depending on odds.

Lawrence I think is pretty legit but he has a knack for slowing down and getting tagged late, and Saidyokub can't ever be counted out. Maybe I'll pass, undecided yet.

low exposure on lawence, he's faster and more aggressive, his style favors the judges because he's the aggressor. some value in Lawence dec. But Saidyokub striking looks solid and he is a decent grappler to go against Umar for three rounds and rise on his feet. Im not going big on that 1. too much risk there, odds are accurate.


i like kennedy, he's big for that division and has a nice size advantage. I thought he got robbed last fight, maybe the point deduction ruined it. Karl only koes guys from the clinch , his subs are average , Kennedy went a long time without getting subbed by Craig who is a top sub fighter. I think he was minutes from winning that fight with Craig. And looking at carlos ulberg last performance, that win has aged well.Karl has a speed advantage here and Kennedy needs watch those elbows, but the elbows usually happen to guys that shoot. I think Kennedy points him, a ko prop or dec prop based on which is juicier.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'm confused. You're saying to cap upcoming fights you should just use the percentages of fights that have already happened? And only in the UFC? Maybe that's not what you're saying. I don't cap that way at all. The end results of previous fights for sure matter, but they're only one of a bunch of different pieces of information that I'd use to cap an upcoming fight.

his most recent, take it with a grain a salt, its just providing the argument that Fiziev doesnt finish everyone. Just like i knew Muniz doesn't sub everyone he faces. that's how i was able to get muniz dec in my last event. Its not exact math, there are always many variables.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

low exposure on lawence, he's faster and more aggressive, his style favors the judges because he's the aggressor. some value in Lawence dec. But Saidyokub striking looks solid and he is a decent grappler to go against Umar for three rounds and rise on his feet. Im not going big on that 1. too much risk there, odds are accurate.


i like kennedy, he's big for that division and has a nice size advantage. I thought he got robbed last fight, maybe the point deduction ruined it. Karl only koes guys from the clinch , his subs are average , Kennedy went a long time without getting subbed by Craig who is a top sub fighter. I think he was minutes from winning that fight with Craig. And looking at carlos ulberg last performance, that win has aged well.Karl has a speed advantage here and Kennedy needs watch those elbows, but the elbows usually happen to guys that shoot. I think Kennedy points him, a ko prop or dec prop based on which is juicier.

I don't think Lawrence is more aggressive than Saidyokub. I don't feel like I have a good read on this fight but Saidyokub is a really aggressive fighter, especially if you watch his CFFC fights.



Nzechukwu Vs Roberson is a crapshoot, both these guys suck. Betfair sometimes offer odds on foul stoppages during a fight, so I'll probably bet that if it's decent odds since both guys like to stand and Kennedy's fingers are constantly extended.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I don't think Lawrence is more aggressive than Saidyokub. I don't feel like I have a good read on this fight but Saidyokub is a really aggressive fighter, especially if you watch his CFFC fights.



Nzechukwu Vs Roberson is a crapshoot, both these guys suck. Betfair sometimes offer odds on foul stoppages during a fight, so I'll probably bet that if it's decent odds since both guys like to stand and Kennedy's fingers are constantly extended.

Lawance td average is 9.15 , striking rise its even, but no way can you say Said is the aggressor

Id give Kennedy a minimum exposure. If your playing really tight, than he wont be your favor, but i'm searching for finishes in this card, prop betting parlays i need kos and subs and a few decisions, and he is one of the ones that can get a ko for sure.