UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus

[mkess101]

Latifi the guy who has landed 15 significant strikes (or so) in the past 2 fights that went all 30 minutes? that guy for TKO? seems wild to me

Fair point. But he wasn't fighting the closest thing in MMA to an actual statue either. This time he is.

 

[MrShady]

Chris Gutierrez and Marc Diakiese seem like great livebet spots after round 1 ? Both their opponents are strong starters and the odds reflect that. What happens in the second and third though?

Gutierrez crafty with the leg kicks and consistent volume to have a good chance of frustrating Batgerel after the first.

If Diakese throws in some takedowns with his kickboxing, Borshchev is going down. Great get up game but maybe that's enough for Diakese to steal the later rounds? Not to mention he went 3 rounds with Fiziev which is impressive.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Chris g. Should be the favorite.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Chris g. Should be the favorite.

Dunno, I bet him as a big favourite against Felipe Colares because I thought he was an absolute cert and he had me sweating and Colares is shit.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Maia at 4.33 is too wild for me not to play. This is a big step up for Fiorot, maybe she handles it, but I'm willing to play that she doesn't at those odds.

 

[Joonc]

Maia at 4.33 is too wild for me not to play. This is a big step up for Fiorot, maybe she handles it, but I'm willing to play that she doesn't at those odds.

What do you think her pathway to victory is? She is 100% getting pieced on the feet, she isn't much of a wrestler, and she is definitely the inferior athlete. You shouldn't assume that Fiorot is a bad grappler just because she mostly strikes, she has shown to even go for her own takedowns before against other grapplers and held her own. Maybe Fiorot's fight IQ isn't the greatest but she doesn't need to have one because her pathway to victory is so simple and has proven to be her natural way of fighting.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

What do you think her pathway to victory is? She is 100% getting pieced on the feet, she isn't much of a wrestler, and she is definitely the inferior athlete. You shouldn't assume that Fiorot is a bad grappler just because she mostly strikes, she has shown to even go for her own takedowns before against other grapplers and held her own. Maybe Fiorot's fight IQ isn't the greatest but she doesn't need to have one because her pathway to victory is so simple and has proven to be her natural way of fighting.

Takedown and stay on top, nobody has really pushed Fiorot in the wrestling so far.

I don't think Maia should be a favourite of anything but that line is too wide for a pretty untested girl fighting a top 5 opponent imo.

 

[Joonc]

Takedown and stay on top, nobody has really pushed Fiorot in the wrestling so far.

I don't think Maia should be a favourite of anything but that line is too wide for a pretty untested girl fighting a top 5 opponent imo.

I think you overestimate the talent in WMMA. Top 5 in the current WMMA roster doesn't mean much.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Dunno, I bet him as a big favourite against Felipe Colares because I thought he was an absolute cert and he had me sweating and Colares is shit.

styles, chris struggles with grapplers, when fighters shoot on him constant it throws off his game, but he won that fight decisively i don't know what that one judge saw.

But against strikers he always delivers . his body of work in mma is more impressive.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I think you overestimate the talent in WMMA. Top 5 in the current WMMA roster doesn't mean much.

this , Fiorot is much bigger than Maia and she looks like she is comfortable grappling back, she has a purple belt and is in top tier shape, she looks very strong for this division, i swear she looks like amanda nunes big. Add her outside striking acheivments in kick boxing and karate, her much better technique on the feet. i dont see Maia doing anything here. Fiorot's strikes are more fierce and explosive, she reminds me a little of Holly Holm with the karate side kicks, I think she is the biggest threat to Shevchenko than any other girl.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

styles, chris struggles with grapplers, when fighters shoot on him constant it throws off his game, but he won that fight decisively i don't know what that one judge saw.

But against strikers he always delivers . his body of work in mma is more impressive.

Not all strikers though are made equal. Batgerel has knocked three straight opponents out in the first round because he has pin-point precision and knows exactly where to aim.

Every single shot he throws is aimed square at the jaw or behind the ear; they are all kill shots. That is not a good stylistic matchup for a fighter like Chris Guttierez who has been hit a lot by far less powerful strikers and likes to place his feet so he can sit down on leg kicks.

Gutierez can obviously win, especially if he mixes in the level change early, but the line is accurate as is and no one should be surprised if Batgerel knocks Gutierrez out in the first round.

 

[BigSteve]

Let's try to break down this whole card in one go, shall we?
2c:

Saldana/Souza: Close fight. I think Saldana kicks the shit out of him early, with Souza potentially turning it on late. He can't bust a grape though so if I was hitting Souza it would be by dec. He constantly runs and looks to blitz and counter. If he does that here the fight could be like Sladans fight on contender where he still had energy for the finish in the third. To gass him you need to pressure and grapple actively. Saldana would be my pick but not sure about value at pick-em.

Dvorak/Nicolau: Tough fight to call, don't see much value. Dvorak has a very high IQ, he fights every fight differently. He turned on the aggression against the short notice opponent because he needed to make a statement. It's the same reason I think he will fight more reserved here, Nicolau has great boxing and power. I think a lot of the grappling and striking will cancel out, Nicolau backs up a lot already and I don't trust his chin. It's pretty much a pick 'em now so pass.

Fiorot/Maia: I think Fiorot has the style to stick and move on Maia for three rounds and even get easy takedowns. She was just falling over against Eye and gave up like 2/3 to Chook of all people. Fiorot got a bit tired in her last fight from kicking the shit out of Silva. Her output was great in that fight plus Silva was kicking her legs and body. Maia has pretty decent boxing and head movement but doesn't mix it up often enough and is pretty slow. Odds are shite but the overs are ok and Fiorot dec is decent considering she is now fighting the most durable fighter she has ever faced.

Khizriev/Denis: Denis is big, tough and hits hard enough for me to pass on these crazy odds on Khizriev. Denis does have a glaring hole when it comes to his takedown defense but he seems to have improved his getup game recently. Khizriev is a guy you don't want to be under, his gnp is savage and he hunts for the rear-naked pretty aggressively. This could go anywhere from a round 1 finish for Khizriev to a late finish to a dominant dec and maybe even a KO upset for Denis. Easy pass, let's see how the Wolf looks, he is pretty undersized for this weight class.

Danaa/Gutierrez: I like Danaa to crowd Guti and counter his kicks. He is an expert counter striker who was timing all of Guidos and Davis's strikes. When this guy counters it is with bombs, not jabs. You could see the fear in Guidos and Davis's eyes when they realized their timing was figured out so quickly. When Kevin N. tried pressuring he got countered beautifully on the back foot. Guti does throw a lot of hip faints and fakes but so does Danaa. Gutierrez constantly moving back, barely boxing, and not putting a stamp on rounds is going to cost him here. Against a really low level of competition that can't figure out the calf kick game Gutierrez looks like a beast, and even then his fights end up close. Danaa has improved a lot since going to Jacksons' after the Aletang fight, I think he will have the pressure and more eye-catching shots. Guti DEC easy hedge.

McMann/Rosa: Big step-up for Rosa. I watched all of her careers to try to get an idea on her bottom game and there really isn't much. She had some nice scrambles and get-ups against a young Pacheco but eventually got guillotined. Proccopio attempted the most takedowns on her so far but Proccopios entries and athletism are below average, plus she was up a class. McMann is getting a takedown early if she wants it, she's a beast. McMann puts all of her opponents in dangerous spots in round one. She subbed Davis which is very impressive, was pounding on Viera from the mount and from the crucifix on Renau. She was looking for a kimura on Lina and had Penas back. That's a very tough level of competition, and also if you want to beat McMann you need to make her quit. Hurt her, or put her in a rough position on the ground after gassing her out. I have now seen Rosa not finish any of the bottom-of-the-barrel opponents she has faced in the UFC, even though she is dominant in most. If you don't look to scramble up against Sarah and make her work you end up like Lina. Tough fight because I am getting tempted in losing money on McMann again, but there is a lot of questions about Rosa still and she is improving. Rosa could be a solid live bet unless she shows nothing off her back in the first.

Magny/Griffin: Don't have the greatest read on this fight, I hate taping Max fights. Worst case I see a typical 29-28 for Magny after Max maybe cracks him or calf kicks him a few times in the first. He will slow down like usual, his 3 fight win streak is overblown. He lost one round to Brahimaj on one judges scorecard, he was 1-1 with a retiring Condit and it wasn't looking the best before he cracked him late and got a takedown. The Rocco fight is worrying for Magny because I thought he lost that one and so did like 80% of the media members, but the important thing is that judges gave him a 30-27 lol. He just has that style where he looks like he is in a dominant position and he is for sure always throwing more. Magny DEC for the sake of it.

Diak/Slava: Got on Diaks early line, don't feel amazing about it but surely there is some value there. I faded Slava against Bush, and it didn't seem to be a bad play considering Bush had him wobbled a few times and ended up on his back. But if anything that fight raised my opinion on Slava. That is like the 4th I have seen him in trouble but he always recovers or gets out of bad positions and then turns it on the opponent. Diak doesn't fall apart like Bush but he does have flakey tendencies and hates pressure. He has horrendous optics when hit but he can take a lot of punishment. His gass-tank is not the best either. I think he needs the perfect fight here like when he turned his losing streak around. Get the calf kick going, stay on the outside and get takedowns if pressured. He can also crack + Slava has been wobbled a lot so an early finish would do him greatly as well. Why I think it needs to be a perfect game plan is because Diaks is not dangerous on the ground, he just grinds, and whenever Slava gets up he is going to pressure and unload combinations to the body and head to steal rounds. I will keep some of the play since I beat the line movement by a solid amount, but I also think we could be live for Slavas first DEC win.

Olenik/Latifi: I rushed to tape this fight due to the crazy line movement on Latifi. All I got from taping is that it's a clear pass to me. Low lvl HW shitshow. Latifi is a good dog but unplayable at this line. No output does nothing with the top time and bad cardio. Oleniks cardio is even worse and he will probably struggle to take Latifi down but at least he pressures and throws a lot of volume into the clinch. That alone could gass out Latifi more than anything. I thought about Latifi by DEC but don't want to be on the other side of a random Latifi meme bomb. Olenik had a very close fight with Spivak who is overall a much better MMA fighter. Latifi has the better wrestling but I trust Spivaks jits a lot more to survive the tough spots. In fact Olenik only lost that fight because he pulled guard in two different instances. I don't trust either guy easy pass.

Askarov/Kai: Kai KO or bust for me here. He is a decent scrambler and fights the hands well but gives his back to stand and I can see Askarov just sitting there for the majority of the fight and winning a dec. Askarov has been dropped twice by Moreno and seems to slow down a bit in the third if pushed. He was also eating some overhands from Benevidez who just wings them, Kai at least has a better trajectory behind his overhand right and he for sure has more reach. Kai has had close striking battles in the past so I don't see much of a chance to win a dec here with grappling involved.

Brown/Barbarena: Shitshow fight. Thought I would like nothing here but after tape, I will look to potentially live bet Barb. Brown is actually a lot more shot here which is saying something. He has about a round of cardio, after that, he is getting outwrestled by Condit. Barbarena doesn't seem to have the durability or the aggression that he used to, but he still has that one final push in the third round. I am waiting to live bet this due to it being in the Browns home town, he can come out looking for a finish with the crowd behind him or to actively wrestle and then we get an improved line.

Wood/Grasso: Got the 1.53 line on Grasso, no idea if I will keep it. It screams a close fight to me despite people thinking Wood is completely done. She can catch a kick and dump Grasso on the ground, or they could just box for all 3 with judges giving the round to whoever they feel like. I actually like a Grasso sub stab here. She doesn't have one yet but she was super close on Esparza with an armbar. She also got Barbers back after attempting the same armbar and sweeping. I can see the same scenario as the Maia fight, get a takedown and then get subbed.

Blaydes/Daukaus: I feel like this could be the fight we go back to Blaydes suplexing fools. Taping Lewis/Daukas, I remember feeling like Duakaus was fucked if he ended up on the bottom. There is no ground footage since 2015, but even his Zhu loss makes it seem like he doesn't have the best cardio or durability. 30 pounds is a lot, I am not sure how Daukaus is going to handle being under that for 5 rounds. I don't think he has the cardio to get up consistently without getting tiered like Volkov. He is obviously live for a finish early, that hand speed is insane even though Blaydes has an iron chin. I am thinking about hammering the finish line, I will need to tape some more to see if there is any chance in hell Blaydes can just coast for 5 rounds.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Not all strikers though are made equal. Batgerel has knocked three straight opponents out in the first round because he has pin-point precision and knows exactly where to aim.

Every single shot he throws is aimed square at the jaw or behind the ear; they are all kill shots. That is not a good stylistic matchup for a fighter like Chris Guttierez who has been hit a lot by far less powerful strikers and likes to place his feet so he can sit down on leg kicks.

Gutierez can obviously win, especially if he mixes in the level change early, but the line is accurate as is and no one should be surprised if Batgerel knocks Gutierrez out in the first round.

Its easy to look like tyson against a 40 year old, Kevin Navidad and a 10-9 fighter. I think Chris coming off sharper competitive fights favors him for the fact that he has had to train and beat fighters with more grit, it speaks to the notion of one playing a game with a higher difficulty level will be the sharper one. I don’t see a 1st round ko happening. Chris is elusive and throws his kicks cautiously. Watch his earlier fights with Timur, he has dealt with power punchers before I think he has the cage time advantage here. Danaa will be the one who will have to adjust to a newer style he hasn’t seen. It has a 50/50 chance tbh , but I always side with the dog here. Wont be a major loss for me, but i like the value I’m getting for a guy like Chris. I think the fight should be even in the odds tbf

 

[2020Tracked]

Maia at 4.33 is too wild for me not to play. This is a big step up for Fiorot, maybe she handles it, but I'm willing to play that she doesn't at those odds.

Have to keep in mind everyone in the division outside of maybe 3 people are equally as shit. I don't think Maia is any better than Silva, and Fiorot rolled

 

[Post 2 Decision]

Joanne really let me down and looked like shit last time out, do I make the same mistake and sprinkle a little something on her by decision at +450?! Trust her more than McMann, and I think Grasso is overrated by fans and books.

 

[Joonc]

With the odds at what they are now, I think there is a lot of value in hedging if you got in early on the big favorites this card.

Maia by sub or decision against Fiorot
Tiuliulin by KO against Khizriev
Griffin by Round 1 KO against Magny
KKF by KO against Askarov
Daukaus ITD rounds 1 or 2 against Blaydes

 

[Bakayoko]

With the odds at what they are now, I think there is a lot of value in hedging if you got in early on the big favorites this card. Maia by sub or decision against Fiorot / Tiuliulin by KO against Khizriev / Griffin by Round 1 KO against Magny / KKF by KO against Askarov / Daukaus ITD rounds 1 or 2 against Blaydes.

Khizriev is 1,10 now wow

 

[The Disasters]

Some of these prices are insane. Khizriev at -1000 is stupid. No MMA fighter should ever be -1000 and that includes Amanda Nunes pre-Pena. Blaydes at -460 is a bit much too. I didn't bet either fight but I'll keep an eye on the odds and might add some closer to the fights. I'm probably about to lose my ass this week since I'm banking on two inconsistent wmma fighters, a Factory X product, and a 44 yr. old.

Medium Bets:
Joanne Wood-If she wrestles, and she has pretty good wrestling, she can easily steal rounds. On the feet she'll yell and punch air while getting out-struck, but at +200 I have to take the risk that she'll fight the right style. Now that the honeymoon is over with her coach, literally, hopefully her head will be back in the game. I've won and lost a lot on her over the years so that's why this is medium instead of large. Wood by decision small too.

Aleksei Oleinik-I think Oleinik is smart enough to pace himself and use his jab as much as possible, then use his height to wear out Latifi in the clinch. On the ground Latifi does so little that as long as Oleinik doesn't gas bad, I don't see Latifi doing enough to win rounds. I added some Oleinik by sub small in case Latifi gasses and Oleinik ends up on top.

Sara McMann-Big test for Rosa here, and another one where the odds aren't justified imo. McMann has really strong wrestling, I think everyone will agree with that. It's really a matter of deciding if McMann can wrestle for 3 rounds or if she'll gas in the 3rd. I don't think Rosa has that finishing instinct yet, and I think McMann takes this. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see Rosa stuff a few takedowns and McMann slow down and lose a clear decision. Added by sub small in case Rosa gets frustrated and makes a mistake. I think Rosa has a bright future in the division, but at this point in their careers I think McMann has enough to take the first two rounds.

Chris Gutierrez-The posters who said a live bet is a great idea with Gutierrez are spot on. Unfortunately my live limits are minuscule so I have to bet before the fight. In the 1st round I'm going to be watching with my eyes closed, hoping he doesn't get knocked out. I'm also going to be hoping that Factory X hasn't given him the completely wrong game plan like they frequently do. My thesis is that Gutierrez can use movement and kicks to avoid the power shot, and that the kicks will slow Danaa down enough for him to win a decision. He also has average wrestling so adding some takedown feints, or even takedown attempts, should help keep Danaa off-balance. I added Gutierrez by decision small.

Small Bets:
Kara-France by TKO-I think Askarov is going to win another boring decision where he wears Kai down with constant takedowns and pressure. But, if the sudden power that he's shown is real and not just a fluke, his speed is enough to cause a lot of people problems. We've seen Askarov wobbled before, but he's great at using his wrestling to recover, and at this price it's worth a shot.

 

[Thesnake101]

Some of these prices are insane. Khizriev at -1000 is stupid. No MMA fighter should ever be -1000 and that includes Amanda Nunes pre-Pena. Blaydes at -460 is a bit much too. I didn't bet either fight but I'll keep an eye on the odds and might add some closer to the fights. I'm probably about to lose my ass this week since I'm banking on two inconsistent wmma fighters, a Factory X product, and a 44 yr. old.

Medium Bets:
Joanne Wood-If she wrestles, and she has pretty good wrestling, she can easily steal rounds. On the feet she'll yell and punch air while getting out-struck, but at +200 I have to take the risk that she'll fight the right style. Now that the honeymoon is over with her coach, literally, hopefully her head will be back in the game. I've won and lost a lot on her over the years so that's why this is medium instead of large. Wood by decision small too.

Aleksei Oleinik-I think Oleinik is smart enough to pace himself and use his jab as much as possible, then use his height to wear out Latifi in the clinch. On the ground Latifi does so little that as long as Oleinik doesn't gas bad, I don't see Latifi doing enough to win rounds. I added some Oleinik by sub small in case Latifi gasses and Oleinik ends up on top.

Sara McMann-Big test for Rosa here, and another one where the odds aren't justified imo. McMann has really strong wrestling, I think everyone will agree with that. It's really a matter of deciding if McMann can wrestle for 3 rounds or if she'll gas in the 3rd. I don't think Rosa has that finishing instinct yet, and I think McMann takes this. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see Rosa stuff a few takedowns and McMann slow down and lose a clear decision. Added by sub small in case Rosa gets frustrated and makes a mistake. I think Rosa has a bright future in the division, but at this point in their careers I think McMann has enough to take the first two rounds.

Chris Gutierrez-The posters who said a live bet is a great idea with Gutierrez are spot on. Unfortunately my live limits are minuscule so I have to bet before the fight. In the 1st round I'm going to be watching with my eyes closed, hoping he doesn't get knocked out. I'm also going to be hoping that Factory X hasn't given him the completely wrong game plan like they frequently do. My thesis is that Gutierrez can use movement and kicks to avoid the power shot, and that the kicks will slow Danaa down enough for him to win a decision. He also has average wrestling so adding some takedown feints, or even takedown attempts, should help keep Danaa off-balance. I added Gutierrez by decision small.

Small Bets:
Kara-France by TKO-I think Askarov is going to win another boring decision where he wears Kai down with constant takedowns and pressure. But, if the sudden power that he's shown is real and not just a fluke, his speed is enough to cause a lot of people problems. We've seen Askarov wobbled before, but he's great at using his wrestling to recover, and at this price it's worth a shot.

Does Oleyinik even know how to jab? I know he has orangutan arms, but he's usually just swinging haymakers with little care for anything else, I wouldn't count on his striking tbh.

 

[The Disasters]

Does Oleyinik even know how to jab? I know he has orangutan arms, but he's usually just swinging haymakers with little care for anything else, I wouldn't count on his striking tbh.

That's fair, and it's also why I'm getting such a good price. I'm just very down on Latifi.