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UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber

Yeah I was initially looking at Kurt but his poor takedown defence is a major concern.

On the feet I like him, he's tough, gritty, aggressive, all those superlatives you'd like in an underdog. He should be a level above Jordan. I bet Kurt against Hernandez mainly because I was hoping he'd be able to keep it on the feet, thought he'd be tough enough to take Alex's shots and walk through them to land his own at a more consistent rate while avoiding the takedown.

He mostly could, but the takedowns were his Achilles heel like it has been his entire career. He's stuffed shots in the past but I think I'm right in saying that in the UFC anyone who has tried to take him down has managed to do so and although his ground game is generally good enough to survive, he almost seems content to lay on his back and occasionally throw up a sub attempt that doesn't go anywhere and lose the round to control time.

Jordan could possibly sub him but I think it most likely goes how most Kurt fights go; he looks good on the feet, seems to be winning the round and taking over the fight then gets taken down on the first or second takedown attempt and loses the round and ultimately the fight, he looks frustrated after the fight and I'm frustrated by expecting him to improve a flaw in the twilight of his career that has plagued him his entire career.

I'll probably look at Jordan DEC, seems the most likely option followed (in no order) by Kurt KO, Leavitt sub and Kurt Dec. Not sure what that's looking like odds wise though.
 
Yeah I really need to watch Macy's fights to see how she operates on the mat. Some girls just use explosion and athleticism and power up (or out of bad spots). That can work a lot of the time, but not vs elite grapplers. In MMA these days, almost all highly ranked people with experience can survive on the mat without being subbed IF they focus on just defending. But like you said that's also conceding control time.

Standing, for sure Erin is gonna be at a massive disadvantage. Macy will beat her up. This is definitely the throwback "striker vs grappler" fight.
Ohhh, you meant to say Maycee (Barber), not Macy (Chiason), who is on the same card. That was a confusing read for me.
 
Spent the week thinking it was on tonight and found it bizarre that no prop bets were out, only just realised that it's next week.

Never been so disappointed that such a mediocre card wasn't on.
 
Spent the week thinking it was on tonight and found it bizarre that no prop bets were out, only just realised that it's next week.

Never been so disappointed that such a mediocre card wasn't on.
lock in
 
I still have a bet on Blachfield at -175. I see she's -250 so it seems I got in at a good time.

I am switching my bet out from Klein to Gamrot (-163) though. My logic is that even if Gamrot is in a bit of a decline he should still have a decent chin, and shouldn't be finished early. So even if he looks lost/isn't having success I should be able to hedge/cashout with a livebet in time since Klein is now +130 (and climbing).
To really cover my bases I might put a bet on Klein by stoppage or KO. Maybe even Klein Rd1 as a real insurance policy.

Honestly, I've been on a bit of a hot streak for MMA so my livebetting luck is bound to run up soon haha. Fortunately I've had lots of success in Hockey as well lately, and hopefully PSG can pull through and get me that Champions League win (+250). I've also got to bump up my unit size a couple of times, and it feels like I'm finally getting consistent enough returns to say "Yeah, I can actually do this successfully" haha.
 
Really like Jacoby here, will be shocked if he loses. Took his KO line at +165
 
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"Due to illness, MarQuel Mederos has been removed from his lightweight bout with Bolaji Oki. Replacing Mederos will be Dana White’s Contender Series veteran Michael Aswell." -- UFC.com

At least we still have 11 fights.
 
My bets for Sat

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also

20 eur Erin Blanfield by TKO or SUB, x 4.00

150 eur @ Chiasson ML at x 2.1 (got in it early, now it's around 1.85)

Won't deep my feet on anything else.
 
My bets for Sat

View attachment 1096791

also

20 eur Erin Blanfield by TKO or SUB, x 4.00

150 eur @ Chiasson ML at x 2.1 (got in it early, now it's around 1.85)

Won't deep my feet on anything else.

Betting on Chiasson and Viera? Good line on Macy but not on Ketlen...?
 
Jacoby ITD is +155 might as well take that just incase
Yeah ended up switching to that and increasing my bet a little, I'll have an egg on my face if Jacoby loses or goes the distance, but Lopes feels like a shittier Petrino with none of the athletic upside so I'm expecting Dustin to lamp him.
 
Just over +200 for that 3-team parlay is not good.

Is that the only sportsbook you're able to use?
I can use tons of sport books but odds are quite similar.

It's actually a system bet with Dos Santos as Bank, it's not a parlay. A straight parlay would be over 4.

I can can cash out live on the straight Chiasson bet so depending on how the fight goes I could make a little more from that. Overall it's quite conservative. I don't know much about the fighters on this night except Chiasson v Vieira and Blanchfield v Barber.

As a grappler myself (Judo Black, BJJ brown) I really like Blanchfield so I put her to win by sub.
 
I can use tons of sport books but odds are quite similar.

It's actually a system bet with Dos Santos as Bank, it's not a parlay. A straight parlay would be over 4.

I can can cash out live on the straight Chiasson bet so depending on how the fight goes I could make a little more from that. Overall it's quite conservative. I don't know much about the fighters on this night except Chiasson v Vieira and Blanchfield v Barber.

As a grappler myself (Judo Black, BJJ brown) I really like Blanchfield so I put her to win by sub.

Explain "system bet with Dos Santos as bank". Haven't heard of this, something new? I thought I knew every way the books offered haha!
 
Explain "system bet with Dos Santos as bank". Haven't heard of this, something new? I thought I knew every way the books offered haha!

Read here or anywhere else on google about system bets or just "systems".

The BOLD B means that that is my bank (some also call it banker, in other countries it's also called "standard"). Broadly speaking, It makes the system bet cheaper but overall odds are lower.

It's definitely not new, it's been used for hundreds of years at horse racing. I vaguely remember when I was teenager (20+ years ago), people using it for football (soccer).

Not all sportbooks have it for MMA.
 
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