UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber

[Stat_Collector]

UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber | MMA Event | Tapology

UFC Fight Night took place Saturday, May 31, 2025 with 9 fights at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. View fight card, video, results, predictions, and news.

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UFC for May 31 | Best Fight Odds

Compare betting odds for UFC on May 31, 2025. Find the best lines from top sportsbooks. UFC/MMA odds comparison service. Compare the latest UFC/MMA fight odds and betting lines from the top online sportsbooks

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[Stat_Collector]

Dogs worth deep retaping (will tape all anyways.)


Barber
Klein
Filho
Mederos
Hyun Ko


finishes that could happen based on numbers of finish losses/wins

Holobaugh sub (triangle) or Leavitt armbar
Rayanne sub low rating
Nascimento sub low rating
Gamrot sub
Lopes sub


Hyun or Goff (Goff closer based on numbers.) ko
Oban ko
Reese ko
Jacoby ko​

 

[Thesnake101]

Mederos' odds jump out a lot since Oki hasn't really been all that impressive since Contender Series.

If Allan didn't have such a long layoff due to injuries I'd be all over his line too, amazing BJJ which should keep him ahead of Filho every step of the way, but there's a chance he's degraded in his time away.

Goff I see as a live bet only deal, he usually gets hurt early before fighting his way back to score a finish.

Jacoby I like here, Lopes is chinny and slow. Not a particularly impressive fighter despite only having lost once.

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[mkess101]

My initial gut reaction was Barber at + odds, no doubt.

But seeing that Barber has been taken down 6 fights in a row gives me pause. To her credit she won all 6 fights. But none of those girls are at Blanchfield's level of grappling. If she gets Macy down, that's danger zone. Erin is arguably the third best submission fighter/bjj player in WMMA behind Dern and Amorim. Not a girl you want to be on your back against.

I need to tape to see why/how Macy is getting taken down in every fight, including 5 times by Andrea Lee 2 fights ago.

 

[Guld]

I gotta rewatch Gamrot and Klein's recent fights.
I feel like Gamrot peaked around the Arman fight (which I actually scored for Arman), so I'm kinda leaning Klein based on that, but I'll see what the tape tells me.

I like Elliot over Brahimaj as well, but I don't know about those odds.

 

[sonhow]

I need to tape to see why/how Macy is getting taken down in every fight, including 5 times by Andrea Lee 2 fights ago.

shes aggressive so it works both ways. On other hand it gives oppenings to her opponents, on other hand shes always the one pushing pace and looks good in that regard. If Erin manages to down her constantly shes obviously not winning the fight. Lazy mmath says she should based on what Maveric did to Barber and then what Erin did to Maveric. But it doesnt always work like that.

 

[mkess101]

shes aggressive so it works both ways. On other hand it gives oppenings to her opponents, on other hand shes always the one pushing pace and looks good in that regard. If Erin manages to down her constantly shes obviously not winning the fight. Lazy mmath says she should based on what Maveric did to Barber and then what Erin did to Maveric. But it doesnt always work like that.

IMO with Blanchfield the issue is that she may not need to "constantly" take her down. Blanchfield isn't any of the girls that have taken Macy down previously. She's a true grappling threat to advance and sub. Obviously that doesn't mean Macy can't survive a couple TD's, but the threat is way way different being taken down by Erin vs taken down by Lee or Maverick or Eye.

 

[sonhow]

IMO with Blanchfield the issue is that she may not need to "constantly" take her down. Blanchfield isn't any of the girls that have taken Macy down previously. She's a true grappling threat to advance and sub. Obviously that doesn't mean Macy can't survive a couple TD's, but the threat is way way different being taken down by Erin vs taken down by Lee or Maverick or Eye.

I think fresh Macy can survive early parts. Ive seen people call her a poor athlete but I disagree. I think she is super strong and would do good in lets say heptathlon. Her techique aint cleanest nor are her strikes most crisp but she tends to look stronger and in better shape than her opponent once the fight ends. In that sense she bit reminds me of DDP. But I agree on that Erin part.

 

[mkess101]

I think fresh Macy can survive early parts. Ive seen people call her a poor athlete but I disagree. I think she is super strong and would do good in lets say heptathlon. Her techique aint cleanest nor are her strikes most crisp but she tends to look stronger and in better shape than her opponent once the fight ends. In that sense she bit reminds me of DDP. But I agree on that Erin part.

I hope for her sake Macy has brought in some high level female bjj players for her camp. They aren't as easy to find as men, but she really needs females that have Blanchfield's level of grappling but without the inherent strength advantage that men have. She needs to most closely replicate what it will feel like being on the mat with Erin (and potentially in bad spots).

 

[Stat_Collector]

IMO with Blanchfield the issue is that she may not need to "constantly" take her down. Blanchfield isn't any of the girls that have taken Macy down previously. She's a true grappling threat to advance and sub. Obviously that doesn't mean Macy can't survive a couple TD's, but the threat is way way different being taken down by Erin vs taken down by Lee or Maverick or Eye.

I think it comes down to damage vs control. Erin has low sub numbers and she's subbed the two worst girls in the division and JJ( in terms of sub defense.) Erin is super hittable and walks headfirst into shots, like the 1st round of the Andrade fight or Fiorot. Its' like we'll see somewhere in the ball park of 8-10 minutes of control time, but how much damage can she take and not get stopped or lose a decision. I think Barber's hands is what separates her from Rose.

 

[mkess101]

I think it comes down to damage vs control. Erin has low sub numbers and she's subbed the two worst girls in the division and JJ( in terms of sub defense.) Erin is super hittable and walks headfirst into shots, like the 1st round of the Andrade fight or Fiorot. Its' like we'll see somewhere in the ball park of 8-10 minutes of control time, but how much damage can she take and not get stopped or lose a decision. I think Barber's hands is what separates her from Rose.

Yeah I really need to watch Macy's fights to see how she operates on the mat. Some girls just use explosion and athleticism and power up (or out of bad spots). That can work a lot of the time, but not vs elite grapplers. In MMA these days, almost all highly ranked people with experience can survive on the mat without being subbed IF they focus on just defending. But like you said that's also conceding control time.

Standing, for sure Erin is gonna be at a massive disadvantage. Macy will beat her up. This is definitely the throwback "striker vs grappler" fight.

 

[StewDogg11]

Blanchfield at -165 is a steal. So is Holobaugh at dog odds.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Mederos' odds jump out a lot since Oki hasn't really been all that impressive since Contender Series.

If Allan didn't have such a long layoff due to injuries I'd be all over his line too, amazing BJJ which should keep him ahead of Filho every step of the way, but there's a chance he's degraded in his time away.

Goff I see as a live bet only deal, he usually gets hurt early before fighting his way back to score a finish.

Jacoby I like here, Lopes is chinny and slow. Not a particularly impressive fighter despite only having lost once.

I'm doubling down on Filho, activity kills, and he just competed with Albazi in a bjj tournament and won. he's atleast being active between fights. And he has a power advantage, more kos and decent hooks, he displayed decent power in his dwcs bout. I think that one is an easy dog or pass. A ko line or decision line for Filho is the play whichever one is higher odds. Likely his ko line.

 

[trunksan]

Definitely gonna be putting money on Chiasson.
Blanchfield should easily win, probably by sub.

Haven't checked the rest of the card

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Tough card for betting.

 

[BigSteve]

Very early look. Feel like there will be spots.

 

[XociDe]

Why is Leavitt the betting favorite? And why do 78% of fans think he's going to win?

 

[Thesnake101]

Why is Leavitt the betting favorite? And why do 78% of fans think he's going to win?

Think it's because of Kurt's age and looking like a turtle on his back against Ogden. I lean towards him but he's shown he's not worth it a bet imo, nad fight IQ.

 

[PuertoRican]

Why is Leavitt the betting favorite? And why do 78% of fans think he's going to win?

It's due to his poor TDD.

He has good enough BJJ to hang with Leavitt on the ground and his striking is better, but he'll have a tough time dealing with multiple TD attempts.