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UFC Fight Night 81 - Dillashaw vs Cruz

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Oblivian, Jan 3, 2016.

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  1. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Am I the only one so confident in Cote I think him winning by KO is more likely than a decision win? Ben is so aggressive he's gonna give Cote no choice but to be more active with his offensive boxing, and everyone seems to have forgotten just how hard this dude hits.
     
  2. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Brown has nice straight kicks, but you are right in that's all he really does well technically. I just think he's a tougher guy than Mitrione. Hell even when AA stopped Browne he had to hit him with multiple bombs and Browne still didn't go down. I don't think Matt has that in him. Or at least we've seen the opposite of it so far. And Browne is a pretty good athlete so him finding a way to get Matt to the ground isn't that hard to see happening.

    I like Browne but I'm playing fight doesn't start rd 3 in some parlays too. If Matt catches him I have a bit of hedge built in.
     
  3. wigglestick pess de gward Platinum Member

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    I really want to go big on someone this event at evens, and im most confident in cote, just worried about him possibly getting taken down. Do you think ben can get him down?
     
  4. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Absolutely not. Saunder's jits is great but his wrestling is not. He won't get a take down, i'm more worried about him pulling guard and/or Cote scoring a takedown and not being able to pass guard to a better position with less danger.
     
  5. edole Brown Belt

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    Latifi vs O'Connell question:

    I haven't seen a lot of O'Connell, but I have seen plenty of Latifi.
    Seems like a squash match to me. O'Connell might be better suited at MW??

    I've seen some people ITT on O'Connell, and I am looking for a little clarification on his overall skill set.

    Latifi is a tank and looked phenomenal at weigh-ins. -255 seems tempting to me.

    Where is the value on this fight? Thanks,
     
  6. vkram Brown Belt

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    Whats the general consensus on Barroso/Mutapcic?
     
  7. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Ben is a tough guy with a good guard. Only been stopped 3 times. Cote has one stoppage win in his last 5 victories (granted it was his last fight).

    Would I be shocked if Cote stopped Ben? No. I think it's more likely he outboxes him to a decision and the odds definitely favor a bet that way imo since you get Cote by dec at +250.
     
  8. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Yup reasons you stated is why besides Mits ML I stabbed the +850 Mits by dec too. Browne is def tougher, and you always have to worry about Mits having a brainfart in there. I will say that I think Mits is without a doubt the better athlete of the two. Former NFL player, one of the lightest on the feet HWs there is. Browne is a lumbering giant who has more varied techniques thanks to his kicks, but idk if i'd really call him athletic.

    I hit Browne by sub when it was +1000 which the more I think about it is an amazing play. Hoping if he takes Mits down he doesn't ground and pound lol
     
  9. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    If you are gonna play Latifi, I think his KO/TKO line at +125 makes more sense. I don't see him winning by a decision or by sub.
     
  10. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Browne did play D1 college hoops. He's a better athlete than you'd think. I agree Matt still probably the better athlete but I still think Travis could get it to the mat potentially.
     
  11. edole Brown Belt

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    Unfortunately my book doesn't post MMA props
     
  12. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Playing the decision win (or just fight goes the distance) is definitely not a bad bet, I just don't see Ben surviving the boxing of Cote. Styles make fights, and my mind's eye sees Ben's skillset and aggressiveness forcing Cote to be more active with his boxing offense than the NCAA Cote of late has been. And after watching brawler Robertson arguably outstrike Ben, my prediction is Cote finishes this
     
  13. vkram Brown Belt

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    Which fights are expected to have live betting on bet365 tonight? Are we only going to get the last 4 fights because the rest are on Fight Pass?
     
  14. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Ahh. Well he should stop O'connell but not sure I'd pay the juice straight up.
     
  15. wack3d Silver Belt

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    hmm i think all those outcomes are just as likely as him getting a KO Connell is a tough sob
     
  16. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Didn't know that about hoops, but I just don't think Browne has really shown any significant athleticism in the cage. Very lumbering, very herky jerky in basically all of his fights. But really all Browne needs is the clinch, and hes more than likely either gonna hurt Mits there or drag him to the ground. Matt HAS to use his footwork and straight punches effectively to win this fight

    This is why I love this section. Was feeling more confident in Mits when I was thinking to myself, but now discussing this i'm back down to earth where a +130 ML isn't worth a significant play when I realize Mits doesn't have many different paths to victory lol
     
  17. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    The prelims are on FS1 right before the main card.
     
  18. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Another fight i've been thinking about, and while i'm already on the over i'm thinking of going harder on it. I don't see this getting finished by anything other than an Elvis KO which is at a line OK enough to hedge with.
     
  19. vkram Brown Belt

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    Cheers, for some reason I thought all of the prelims were on FP. I guess that means no live betting for the FP part of the card and everything else should be available.
     
  20. wack3d Silver Belt

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    only 5 fights on fightpass? we should get livebet on the rest
     
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