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UFC Fight Night 81 - Dillashaw vs Cruz

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Oblivian, Jan 3, 2016.

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  1. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Same drill as always - post bets, discuss bets/matchups, and other sports in spoilers.

    Singles
    Cruz: $10 to win $12
    Mendes: $7.50 to win $13.50
    Mitrione: $7.50 to win $10.50
    Bochniak/Rosa under 2.5: $7.50 to win $5.77
    Pettis (-3.5): $7.50 to win $4.69
    Wade/Baghdad ITD: $6.25 to win $8.75
    Blanco: $6.25 to win $5.21
    Mutapcic: $6.25 to win $3.91
    Gomez (scorecards = no action): $3.75 to win $6.79
    Poppie: $2.50 to win $4 $6.50

    Ben Smith: $2.50 to win $3.38 Loss
    Anderson: $2.50 to win $1.39 $3.89
    Mumma: $1.25 to win $1.88 Loss
    Riley: $1.25 to win $12.50 $13.75
    Gray: $1.25 to win $4.38 Loss
    Souza: $1.25 to win $1.19 $3.44
    Schuckman: $1.25 to win $4.18 Loss

    Risk of $76.25

    Parlays
    Field over Spieth (Hyundai) + Latifi: $10 to win $7.31 Loss

    Edilov + Mitrione/Browne ITD: $7.50 to win $1.68 (adjusted)
    Field over D. Johnson (Hyundai) + Pearson: $6.25 to win $5.29
    Field over Kisner (Sony) + O'Connell/Latifi ITD: $6.25 to win $3.73
    Field over Snedeker + Not Cote Dec: $6.25 to win $3.06
    Felder + Boetsch: $5 to win $6.29
    Freitas + Felix + Font/Gomez ITD: $2.50 to win $3.49 Loss

    Field over Z. Johnson (Sony) + Cyborg + Pa'Aluh + Brown: $1.25 to win $1.29 Loss
    Field over Snedeker (Sony) + Cyborg + Cruz/Dilla starts 2 + Browne/Mit ITD: $1.25 to win $1.32

    Risk of $46.25

    RISK OF $122.50

    TOTALS FOR 2016: Initial Risk was $97.50, Running total is $104.87, Running Profit = $7.37 (Approximate ROI for year 7.559%)
    TOTALS FOR 2015: Initial Risk was $95, Running total is $263.68 Running Profit: $168.68 Approximate ROI for year 3.901%)
    TOTALS FOR 2014: Initial Risk was $127.50 Running Total is $148.35 Running Profit = $20.85 (Approximate ROI for year 0.74%)
    TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $583.75 Running Profit = $351.25 (Approximate ROI for year: 9.34%)
    TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
    TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
    TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
    GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2014: $29 into $2721.56 Total Profit = $2702.56 (Approximate ROI: 12.8296%)
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2016
  2. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    I was absolutely obliterated last night in the wallet! Like I told a friend, that idiot judge Chris Lee owes my kids a college education

    I was literally on the wrong end of every break last night

    Brandao cost me 3 units when he was clearly up to rounds
    Noke decision 5 units
    Carlos Condit split decision 14 units


    But I just dropped by to say that was a hell of a fight and congrats on any of you who made out good! I saw EZ did! Last night was one of those events for me but everything goes wrong… I know that everyone has had one of those where it feels like the world is conspiring against you LOL
     
  3. wonderbread Stiff Member

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    Cruz
    Pettis
    Browne
    Pearson
    Cote
    Wade
    Felder
    Boetsch
    Hettis
    Latifi
    Font
    Barroso
     
  4. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    If it makes you feel better, I think Brandao was the right play at those odds. He was clearly two rounds up. Ortega got the finish and it wasn't exactly a hail mary as it was his best chance of winning, but way too close for comfort for laying the juice on him. That fight was dog or pass IMO.

    I think Condit was the right play too if you got him at + odds. Most had him winning, so it's hard to say he wasn't the right play if it was better than even.

    I didn't really understand your Noke play when you said Morono is about equal everywhere. Your analysis really wasn't off as you mentioned Noke being too big and the experience edge, but Noke was too heavily favored if they are similar in skillset. It was a surprising decision and definitely off, but I still think Noke was the wrong play there.
     
  5. bruthead Blue Belt

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    Brandao was definitely the right play pre-fight, feel bad for you guys who don't get live bet options, I took Ortega 2/1 +200 in play.
     
  6. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Feel your pain with Brandao. Livebet him after round 2 pretty hard.

    Think I was the only person in this entire thread that benefited from that horrendous Morono dec
     
  7. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    iGnp
    Been hammering SF moneyline on livebet after your tip on them. They've been playing a great game, shame that mistake cost them lead. Hopefully they keep playing strong
     
  8. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I bet Morono and didn't really regret it going into the decision before the scorecards. I waited until he was +220 or above.
     
  9. iGnP Silver Belt

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    fingers crossed man. im a rams fan and ive noticed they always play to their opposition, whether its up or down. sorry about the cardinals pick, i didnt think seattle would be so motivated to win here.
     
  10. KampSiver Green Belt

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    Yeah.. Brandao really screwed me.. He was up 2 rounds and 5 dimes had livebetting odds after round 2 at -115 both ways. that costed me $230. He fought conservative and smart for 2 full rounds, then went full retard at the start of the 3rd like he was round 1 Diego.. I did not see that coming for some reason... :(

    haha.. I had this god awful parlay that hit due to Moreno.. Kish was in there as well and I thought she lost her fight tbh. I had her losing round 1 and 2. I actually ended up betting $100 against her after round 2 to win $150.

    $30.00 to win $732.60 Win 4 Team Parlay
    Win 1/2/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Stipe Miocic -200* vs Andrei Arlovski
    Win 1/2/16 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1601 Alex Morono +310* vs Kyle Noke
    Win 1/2/16 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1701 Justine Kish -210* vs Nina Ansaroff
    Win 1/2/16 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1802 Drew Dober +180* vs Scott Holtzman
     
  11. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Kish was probably the most disappointing person on the card. I thought she looked absolutely awful.

    In retrospect, the best play on the card was probably Westcott. He made it look so easy.
     
  12. jerryisgood Green Belt

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    5dimes had Ortega at +100 going into round three and Diego was looking tired. Jumped to -115 before I got my [small] bet in. I wish I bet Ortega Rnd 3 pre-fight like I wanted to. Anyone know what the line was?
     
  13. jerryisgood Green Belt

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    Westcott and the +3.5's on all the close fights. They were close on paper, they were close on the cards.
     
  14. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    No big deal can't win em all. At this point, the only thing that matters for me is a SF win after going in on the moneyline. Even added more at +170 when they lost the lead lol

    Yeah I went large myself, him and Dober were my big livebet plays of the night. Learned my lesson doing that to Ortega, when dude needs a finish he is coming for it.
     
  15. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    yeah I hit that Ortega round 3 win it was +750
     
  16. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    You and I went back and forth on Ortega/Brandao, and I'll concede the juice might have been a bit too steep. I haven't seen judges scorecards, but I did think rd 2 might have been Ortega's. Brandao didn't completely gas himself out, that's for sure. But even with his more measured approach, he still throws everything he has into every punch and had noticeably slowed by early in rd 2. Ortega started landing shots, and while I'm not SURE he won rd 2 at all, he may well might have and of course that would have meant rd 3 decided it.

    I'll still say Ortega should have been favored, and I'm happy to take the win. But you were right, 2 to 1 was probably at least a little too steep. I think his value realistically probably ended around -150 to -160.
     
  17. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    hehe, yea. that can happen.. been there for sure!
     
  18. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    yea i got it at +1000, played both 2 and 3 at +500 and +1000 basically at equalized action
     
  19. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    i think ortega took it as much as diego giving it away.. and even if he didn't tap to that triangle, i really don't think he would've survived another 3.5 mins -- ortega was gonna get him, really think

    i saw signs of diego starting to do what diego does in the 2nd.. started getting emotional.. stopped throwing as hard, etc

    but i was like "even money after 2nd? man, screw you, 5d!"
     
  20. Medical Marijuana Man Buddah Buddah Buddah Banned

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    So far $20 on Cruz to win $25

    I might prop bet Alvarez via ud if the odds are high enough.

    Not sure about Mitrione and Browne, Travis could take down Matt and finish him on the ground imo just like he did to Schaub.
     
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