ufc fight night 127

Wiktoruspro said:
People like him here because he is a dog. If Jimi would be a dog than they would love him. If lobov would fight aldo than everyone here would bet lobov because of dog money. Strange logic
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Umm in a fight where people think the line should be really close they are jumping on the +180 dog and you think that's "strange"?

I'm not even sure how to respond...

If finding value is "strange", I want to be the biggest weirdo on this whole damn forum please.
 
Card said:
Anyone do a breakdown of Haqparast vs. Narimani?

Narimani is much higher ranked on Fightmatrix and on a 3 fight winstreak. Is he a wrestler / takedown type fighter?
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More like an overall bully. Strong and gritty, but not as talented as Haqparast.
 
This will be a tough card so I expect a lot of dogs to win and would suggest keeping parlaying to a minimum(Ankalaev ITD(KO) and Dowudo ML would be good examples of parlay material imo). Took Enkamp, Sobotta, Blachowicz, Ware and had Scott at +300
 
FlamingSamurai said:
Sosznowski or Godbeer?
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Mark Godbeer/Dmitriy Sosnovskiy Breakdown:

I watched tape on both fighters and here is what I came away with.

Sosnovskiy reminds me a lot of Todd Duffee, a real powerful physical specimen with a lot of muscle mass and very athletic and quick for a big man. The difference between the two is Duffee prefers to strike but Sosnovskiy prefers to take you down and ground and pound you. Sosnovskiy technique isn't perfect but really strong guy that will overpower you and if he gets on top of you in mount, it's essentially over.

Sosnovskiy is undefeated and this is his UFC debut and he has fought a lot of cans and his best win is over Aleksander Emelianko before he went to prison, so the competition is definitely not UFC caliber.

Mark Godbeer is definitely going to have the striking advantage going into this fight and training with Alistair Overeem in Thailand for this fight is only going to improve his striking, the thing that worries me is can Godbeer keep the fight standing. He has more or less got taken down in most of his fights but he has shown the ability to get back up but having someone as strong, powerful and big as Sosnovskiy on top of you is not a good idea.

The fights that Sosnovskiy went 3 rounds, he definitely slowed down and you could see his mouth was opening which are signs of gassing, not surprising with all his muscle mass too. If you are planning to bet Godbeer, I would livebet this fight to see if he can stop the takedowns in round 1 and if he can't, can he get up from the takedowns. He needs to drag Sosnovskiy into the latter rounds when he starts slowing down. As mentioned Godbeer will have the striking advantage, the question is can he keep the fight upright and standing.
 
MT6ix said:
Mark Godbeer/Dmitriy Sosnovskiy Breakdown:

I watched tape on both fighters and here is what I came away with.

Sosnovskiy reminds me a lot of Todd Duffee, a real powerful physical specimen with a lot of muscle mass and very athletic and quick for a big man. The difference between the two is Duffee prefers to strike but Sosnovskiy prefers to take you down and ground and pound you. Sosnovskiy technique isn't perfect but really strong guy that will overpower you and if he gets on top of you in mount, it's essentially over.

Sosnovskiy is undefeated and this is his UFC debut and he has fought a lot of cans and his best win is over Aleksander Emelianko before he went to prison, so the competition is definitely not UFC caliber.

Mark Godbeer is definitely going to have the striking advantage going into this fight and training with Alistair Overeem in Thailand for this fight is only going to improve his striking, the thing that worries me is can Godbeer keep the fight standing. He has more or less got taken down in most of his fights but he has shown the ability to get back up but having someone as strong, powerful and big as Sosnovskiy on top of you is not a good idea.

The fights that Sosnovskiy went 3 rounds, he definitely slowed down and you could see his mouth was opening which are signs of gassing, not surprising with all his muscle mass too. If you are planning to bet Godbeer, I would livebet this fight to see if he can stop the takedowns in round 1 and if he can't, can he get up from the takedowns. He needs to drag Sosnovskiy into the latter rounds when he starts slowing down. As mentioned Godbeer will have the striking advantage, the question is can he keep the fight upright and standing.
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LB only for main card.
 
fight pass card means no live betting for americans, fuckin bummer, just remembered.

enkamp +155? Enkamp is all striking, his wrestling is terrible, gets taken down at will, however his rubber guard is really good, so every time he gets taken down he basically just hold you in his guard until the ref stand you up. he's also really inefficient with his energy, throws tons of spinning kicks that are nowhere close, he also gets jammed up a lot throwing combos, like he throws a 1 2 followed by a kick, but Taleb would close the distance after the punches, and his kicks wouldn't land, leaving him open to takedowns and counters.

we've seen Roberts get picked apart by strikers before, Roberts loves to brawl, if he was fighting a good wrestler he would have no chance, pretty bad tdd, not too good at getting back to his feet.


feel like this is going to be a brawl, both are going to want to exchange, think Enkamp will win but might just end up betting the under or DNGTD.
 
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Short Notice:
- Nad Narimani (in for Alex Reyes) vs. Nasrat Haqparast [0 days notice]
- Dmitry Sosnovskiy (in for Dmitry Poberezhets) vs. Mark Godbeer [2 weeks]
- Tom Duquesnoy vs. Terrion Ware (announced 2 weeks ago)
- Stevie Ray (in for Rustam Khabilov) vs. Kajan Johnson [4 weeks]
- Fabricio Werdum vs. Alexander Volkov (annouced 5 weeks ago)

Ring Rust:
- Peter Sobotta 293 days
- John Phillips 539 days (two injuries vs. Anders and Rogério de Lima)
- Oliver Enkamp 293 days
- Hakeem Dawodu 364 days
- Dmitriy Sosnovskiy 1036 days (was supposed to fight Ledet in Feb and Sept)
- Nad Narimani 350 days

Returning from TKO loss:
- Jimi Manuwa (vs. Oezdemir in July)
- Danny Roberts (vs. Taleb in Dec)
- Paul Craig (vs. Rountree in July)
- Stevie Ray (vs. Felder in July)
- Mark Godbeer (vs. Harris in Nov)

UFC Debuts:
- John Phillips
- Charles Byrd (Contender Series twice)
- Hakeem Dawodu
- Magomed Ankalaev
- Dmitry Sosnovskiy
- Nad Narimani
 
Europe Fighters - Jimi Manuwa, Tom Duquesnoy, Leon Edwards, John Phillips, Danny Roberts & Oliver Enkamp, Danny Henry, Paul Craig, Stevie Ray, Mark Godbeer, Nasrat Haqparast & Nad Narimani
 
mkess101 said:
Umm in a fight where people think the line should be really close they are jumping on the +180 dog and you think that's "strange"?

I'm not even sure how to respond...

If finding value is "strange", I want to be the biggest weirdo on this whole damn forum please.
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I meant everything overall :) for example..first everybody was oh oh Marshman is dog +300 and after that everyone was like oh oh Brad is +300 so wtf ? . I like to bet on winners, thats what matters. You can throw out your dog money if your dog loses.
 
Wiktoruspro said:
I meant everything overall :) for example..first everybody was oh oh Marshman is dog +300 and after that everyone was like oh oh Brad is +300 so wtf ? . I like to bet on winners, thats what matters. You can throw out your dog money if your dog loses.
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The key concept that you seem to be missing is that it's all a numbers game. Marshman at +300 represents a 25% chance of winning, so if you think he can win this fight at least 1 out of 4 times it's a good bet. Then, if Scott is +300 the same logic applies. And it also doesn't have to be such an obvious discrepancy to be a solid bet --- if a fight is 50/50 in your eyes, pretty much anything at plus money is a value play.

Even if you think a fighter loses the fight 6 times out of 10, if you can get him at +200, representing 33% chance of winning, it's probably a line that you should be playing, since in your estimate he will win 40% of the time. Betting on a fighter you give less than a 50% chance to win is a hard concept for many people to grasp, but you have to get away from that single fight mentality and who you think "should" win tomorrow and look long-term. Spread it out over the course of 10 fights or even 100 fights and look for value. It's the only way to be profitable in the long run and the reason why parlaying huge favorites over and over doesn't make anybody rich.
 
chemmy said:
The key concept that you seem to be missing is that it's all a numbers game. Marshman at +300 represents a 25% chance of winning, so if you think he can win this fight at least 1 out of 4 times it's a good bet. Then, if Scott is +300 the same logic applies. And it also doesn't have to be such an obvious discrepancy to be a solid bet --- if a fight is 50/50 in your eyes, pretty much anything at plus money is a value play.

Even if you think a fighter loses the fight 6 times out of 10, if you can get him at +200, representing 33% chance of winning, it's probably a line that you should be playing, since in your estimate he will win 40% of the time. Betting on a fighter you give less than a 50% chance to win is a hard concept for many people to grasp, but you have to get away from that single fight mentality and who you think "should" win tomorrow and look long-term. Spread it out over the course of 10 fights or even 100 fights and look for value. It's the only way to be profitable in the long run and the reason why parlaying huge favorites over and over doesn't make anybody rich.
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thank you for answer mate, that makes sense
 
The over 1.5 Duq - Ware is already down to 1.28 on unibet lol
 
Fabricio Werdum down to -170 at 5D reduced, had to hit that to win 1u even though Volkov's boxing and Werdum's age is a bit of a concern.
 
Narimani looked thick, solid, tight
 
mkess101 said:
Holy shit I was about to add 2u. Then I looked and...nope.

Blachowitz NSC +250 is bananas though. I'm on that for 2u. I get that Jimi is a pretty big hitter for the weight class, but he's not Rumble. He's hit plenty of guys that haven't crumbled, JAN INCLUDED IN THAT!!
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Jimi tore his MCL in the first round of the first fight. It's silly to not take that into account if you wanna say ^^^
 
Wiktoruspro said:
I meant everything overall :) for example..first everybody was oh oh Marshman is dog +300 and after that everyone was like oh oh Brad is +300 so wtf ? . I like to bet on winners, thats what matters. You can throw out your dog money if your dog loses.
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not really

a lot of people bet dogs with the hopes of freerolling or hedging during live betting, especially if you are on the right side of line movements pre fight

but you should already know this if you gamble a lot
 
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