UFC Fight Island III: Benavidez v Figuereido II

[Tirimasuperman]

Lipski v Carolina line is weird. Carolina seems better at everything, plus younger so more potential to improve between fights. Very little defence, but she's Brazilian so same can be said for both of them really

 

[Tirimasuperman]

Do we think that Figuereido actually intended the headbutt against Joe B in the first fight? He bragged that he did, he came off way better from it than Joe B did, and tbh I'm not really seeing the cardio issues everyone else insists they do because he's generally pretty economical with his movements

Joe has said he wants to go out there and hurt Figueiredo after hearing about his headbutt bragging, which makes me wonder if we see him bullrush into either a fist or a repeat of Figureido v Pantoja

At the same time, Figuereido has A LOT of confidence in his chin and was starting to get stunned in the final 15 seconds of the Pantoja fight. Joe B R4 and R5 are both 34.0, so I do wonder

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Do we think that Figuereido actually intended the headbutt against Joe B in the first fight? He bragged that he did, he came off way better from it than Joe B did, and tbh I'm not really seeing the cardio issues everyone else insists they do because he's generally pretty economical with his movements

Joe has said he wants to go out there and hurt Figueiredo after hearing about his headbutt bragging, which makes me wonder if we see him bullrush into either a fist or a repeat of Figureido v Pantoja

At the same time, Figuereido has A LOT of confidence in his chin and was starting to get stunned in the final 15 seconds of the Pantoja fight. Joe B R4 and R5 are both 34.0, so I do wonder

Idk Joe B has hit headbutts like that a few times. Got rocked the same way vs Cejudo iirc.

 

[mkess101]

Did a little tape on Gastelum/Hermannson. Not seeing the Hermannson love as much as others here.

His striking is okay, he has good leg kicks. But his boxing isn't that slick, he mostly uses it to close distance to get his grappling game going. He's a good grappler, fundamentally sound and has a great guillotine. But he's not as good as Weidman was in his prime, and that's the only guy who's ever clearly out grappled Gastelum (I say clearly because Magny did at 170 but that was back and forth and not decisive, both had their moments). In addition, Weidman was a monstrous MW, just huge compared to Kelvin. Jack is more an average sized MW.

Kelvin's performance against Till was baffling, but in hindsight Till deserves a lot of credit for mixing things up and keeping Kelvin guessing. Rewatching that fight, Till did a lot of things well and didn't take stupid chances like he was prone to doing in the past. I think Till's slick boxing and ability to get his head off the center line surprised Kelvin. It's still concerning given it was Kelvin's last fight, but I don't want to put TOO much stock in it. I don't think Hermannson can replicate that style either, he's not the boxer that Till evidently is. (I called Till overrated for a long time but THAT version of Till impressed me a lot).

Kelvin is insanely durable, never finished by strikes and only once subbed (again, by Weidman who was a BEAST grappler and gigantic MW). Jack has been finished in 4 of his 5 losses (though yes, Cannonier and Santos are monsters at MW and huge punchers to be fair). Izzy had Kelvin hurt but Kelvin survived, he's just a super tough, durable kid. Can't see Jack hurting him with strikes and definitely can't see him finishing (or at least I think it's very unlikely). Kelvin meanwhile has some power, even as an undersized MW. Put away Belfort, Bisping, and Kennedy. Him hurting Jack with punches seems very possible to me if there are pocket exchanges.

I'm definitely playing Gastelum NSC at -150. Should be north of -200 imo, I think it's twice as likely Kelvin finishes as Jack does. I think I'll also take a stab at Kelvin dec +205 too. Admittedly, Kelvin's apparent indifference vs Till does concern me a little, but I think that's a one-off. I think it's likely this fight sees the cards and is pretty close. At over 2-1, I'm willing to take a small shot that Kelvin's superior boxing wins out over Hermannson's leg kicks and likely forward aggression.

 

[Broe.]

I like the Johns decision line at +500, I think its a nice hedge for betting jackson. I also like the +300 decision line on Askarov, even though I also favour Pantoja in that fight. Furthermore the Tsarukyan decision line at +100 is nice (way better than his moneyline, Ramos has never been finshed). I alos like the Gordon vs Albazi fight under 2.5 at +110, both guys are finishers and Gordon is kind of a madman who goes all out in the early rounds.

 

[mkess101]

I like the Johns decision line at +500, I think its a nice hedge for betting jackson. I also like the +300 decision line on Askarov, even though I also favour Pantoja in that fight. Furthermore the Tsarukyan decision line at +100 is nice (way better than his moneyline, Ramos has never been finshed). I alos like the Gordon vs Albazi fight under 2.5 at +110, both guys are finishers and Gordon is kind of a madman who goes all out in the early rounds.

Man I was JUST gonna post about Gordon/Albazi. For me it was PURE wikicapping and 5d doesn't have an o/u yet on the fight. But I'm playing -140 for FDNGD on this one for sure. Again, no tape and just looking at their records so for anyone reading PLEASE note this. But 28 combined fights and only FOUR have gone the distance?? I guess the only hesitation I have is that it's flyweight, but really your post makes me more confident that this has value.

 

[Martialbeef]

Horrible event for no distance

 

[Oblivian]

Honestly, I think Brett Johns is underrated. I think that fight is almost 50/50 as long as Johns keeps his activity level high. I'm sure he'll get stuffed a lot, but if he works along the fence and tries snagging the back, I don't see Jackson getting much offense in.

 

[Gugabe]

Did a little tape on Gastelum/Hermannson. Not seeing the Hermannson love as much as others here.

His striking is okay, he has good leg kicks. But his boxing isn't that slick, he mostly uses it to close distance to get his grappling game going. He's a good grappler, fundamentally sound and has a great guillotine. But he's not as good as Weidman was in his prime, and that's the only guy who's ever clearly out grappled Gastelum (I say clearly because Magny did at 170 but that was back and forth and not decisive, both had their moments). In addition, Weidman was a monstrous MW, just huge compared to Kelvin. Jack is more an average sized MW.

Kelvin's performance against Till was baffling, but in hindsight Till deserves a lot of credit for mixing things up and keeping Kelvin guessing. Rewatching that fight, Till did a lot of things well and didn't take stupid chances like he was prone to doing in the past. I think Till's slick boxing and ability to get his head off the center line surprised Kelvin. It's still concerning given it was Kelvin's last fight, but I don't want to put TOO much stock in it. I don't think Hermannson can replicate that style either, he's not the boxer that Till evidently is. (I called Till overrated for a long time but THAT version of Till impressed me a lot).

Kelvin is insanely durable, never finished by strikes and only once subbed (again, by Weidman who was a BEAST grappler and gigantic MW). Jack has been finished in 4 of his 5 losses (though yes, Cannonier and Santos are monsters at MW and huge punchers to be fair). Izzy had Kelvin hurt but Kelvin survived, he's just a super tough, durable kid. Can't see Jack hurting him with strikes and definitely can't see him finishing (or at least I think it's very unlikely). Kelvin meanwhile has some power, even as an undersized MW. Put away Belfort, Bisping, and Kennedy. Him hurting Jack with punches seems very possible to me if there are pocket exchanges.

I'm definitely playing Gastelum NSC at -150. Should be north of -200 imo, I think it's twice as likely Kelvin finishes as Jack does. I think I'll also take a stab at Kelvin dec +205 too. Admittedly, Kelvin's apparent indifference vs Till does concern me a little, but I think that's a one-off. I think it's likely this fight sees the cards and is pretty close. At over 2-1, I'm willing to take a small shot that Kelvin's superior boxing wins out over Hermannson's leg kicks and likely forward aggression.

Gastelum's getup strategy of turning the back and shifting onto his hands and knees puts him in a bad position when it comes to Herm's front-choke game. Most of Gastelum's TDD at MW has been 'I'll drop round 1 decisively and hope the other guy gasses out'. IMO the Herm sub's probably the most consistent way this finishes.

 

[Tirimasuperman]

Malcolm Gordon looks a live dog at 2.5 (+150). Dude has power in his hands, good enough wrestling, slick back takes and showed v Sherbatov he can weather a storm. Albazi showed in his Shorty Torres fight that his chin isn't amazing

Albazi also got the call last Wednesday and flew straight to Heathrow so hasn't had time to prep at all, and the last fight he was scheduled for was in April (which was cancelled due to Covid)

Albazi is probably a better grappler and in theory his stick and move is tricky for anyone to deal with in a large Octagon, but it's a strategy that relies on intense cardio and I can't see how he'd have that when he hasn't been prepping for the fight

 

[Black Paladin]

2 months ago, thats stupid

He's either dead or fine after two months. I vote for fine.

 

[Tirimasuperman]

If I'm saying too much in these threads let me know by the way - Just got my wisdom teeth out so there's fuck all else to do lmfao

 

[Black Paladin]

Nobody has disappointed me more than gastelum. I bet him vs Weidman till and magny and he disappointed in all 3. Blah

He is one of the most underperforming MMA athletes over the last five years or so. He is not very versatile in his skill set, but just being more professional and focused with what he does have would have been enough to reign over the division for a bit.

I like his chances in this. Don't bet the house on him, though.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Gastelum's getup strategy of turning the back and shifting onto his hands and knees puts him in a bad position when it comes to Herm's front-choke game. Most of Gastelum's TDD at MW has been 'I'll drop round 1 decisively and hope the other guy gasses out'. IMO the Herm sub's probably the most consistent way this finishes.

Isn't Gastelum your nemesis? I can't get a bead over the dude really. Constantly under and over performing in every phase.

 

[ill800]

Honestly, I think Brett Johns is underrated. I think that fight is almost 50/50 as long as Johns keeps his activity level high. I'm sure he'll get stuffed a lot, but if he works along the fence and tries snagging the back, I don't see Jackson getting much offense in.

I don’t think he can close the distance as well as Simon did. I don’t think he’s as quick or as athletic as Simon either but he does have better jiu jitsu and there is a chance for a back take

Jackson has shown incredible getups and good sub defense. It took many takedowns from Simon to get him to the point where he could establish any form of top control in the third round.

also you have the potential of the young Jackson improving from fight to fight. He was apparently training for the summer olympics before mma and his wrestling has looked good. That d’arce he snatched against kelleher was really nice

his striking is pretty good for as many fights as he’s had. He has a pretty good understanding of range and you can see that he has power and speed. He just doesn’t trust his striking as much as his wrestling.

Johns isn’t much of a striker. Fortunately for him he’s ultra tough and can take a lot of damage cause the guy gets punched in the face closing distance to grapple.

I initially liked johns too but after tape I figured the price was about right. I definitely dont see it as 50/50. Jackson is really talented and physically gifted. The Simon fight was also his ufc debut 2 years and four fights ago

 

[Card]

Everyone made weight.
Front facing pics - https://www.gettyimages.ca/photos/ufc?family=editorial&phrase=UFC&sort=newest#license

 

[DonQ94]

Did a little tape on Gastelum/Hermannson. Not seeing the Hermannson love as much as others here.

His striking is okay, he has good leg kicks. But his boxing isn't that slick, he mostly uses it to close distance to get his grappling game going. He's a good grappler, fundamentally sound and has a great guillotine. But he's not as good as Weidman was in his prime, and that's the only guy who's ever clearly out grappled Gastelum (I say clearly because Magny did at 170 but that was back and forth and not decisive, both had their moments). In addition, Weidman was a monstrous MW, just huge compared to Kelvin. Jack is more an average sized MW.

Kelvin's performance against Till was baffling, but in hindsight Till deserves a lot of credit for mixing things up and keeping Kelvin guessing. Rewatching that fight, Till did a lot of things well and didn't take stupid chances like he was prone to doing in the past. I think Till's slick boxing and ability to get his head off the center line surprised Kelvin. It's still concerning given it was Kelvin's last fight, but I don't want to put TOO much stock in it. I don't think Hermannson can replicate that style either, he's not the boxer that Till evidently is. (I called Till overrated for a long time but THAT version of Till impressed me a lot).

Kelvin is insanely durable, never finished by strikes and only once subbed (again, by Weidman who was a BEAST grappler and gigantic MW). Jack has been finished in 4 of his 5 losses (though yes, Cannonier and Santos are monsters at MW and huge punchers to be fair). Izzy had Kelvin hurt but Kelvin survived, he's just a super tough, durable kid. Can't see Jack hurting him with strikes and definitely can't see him finishing (or at least I think it's very unlikely). Kelvin meanwhile has some power, even as an undersized MW. Put away Belfort, Bisping, and Kennedy. Him hurting Jack with punches seems very possible to me if there are pocket exchanges.

I'm definitely playing Gastelum NSC at -150. Should be north of -200 imo, I think it's twice as likely Kelvin finishes as Jack does. I think I'll also take a stab at Kelvin dec +205 too. Admittedly, Kelvin's apparent indifference vs Till does concern me a little, but I think that's a one-off. I think it's likely this fight sees the cards and is pretty close. At over 2-1, I'm willing to take a small shot that Kelvin's superior boxing wins out over Hermannson's leg kicks and likely forward aggression.

I feel like he didn't just get manhandled by Weidman, but also in spurts by Jacare and Kennedy. Problem with the last two is that they gassed hard after round 1. I also feel like Weidman was already out of his prime by then and on the decline.

 

[DonQ94]

I don’t think he can close the distance as well as Simon did. I don’t think he’s as quick or as athletic as Simon either but he does have better jiu jitsu and there is a chance for a back take

Jackson has shown incredible getups and good sub defense. It took many takedowns from Simon to get him to the point where he could establish any form of top control in the third round.

also you have the potential of the young Jackson improving from fight to fight. He was apparently training for the summer olympics before mma and his wrestling has looked good. That d’arce he snatched against kelleher was really nice

his striking is pretty good for as many fights as he’s had. He has a pretty good understanding of range and you can see that he has power and speed. He just doesn’t trust his striking as much as his wrestling.

Johns isn’t much of a striker. Fortunately for him he’s ultra tough and can take a lot of damage cause the guy gets punched in the face closing distance to grapple.

I initially liked johns too but after tape I figured the price was about right. I definitely dont see it as 50/50. Jackson is really talented and physically gifted. The Simon fight was also his ufc debut 2 years and four fights ago

Yeah I pretty much felt the same way after watching tape. I think it's gonna look a lot like the aljo matchup. John's will be at a severe athletic disadvantage and Jackson will keep him at range with his punches (whereas Aljo used more kicks).

 

[mkess101]

Gastelum's getup strategy of turning the back and shifting onto his hands and knees puts him in a bad position when it comes to Herm's front-choke game. Most of Gastelum's TDD at MW has been 'I'll drop round 1 decisively and hope the other guy gasses out'. IMO the Herm sub's probably the most consistent way this finishes.

Would I be absolutely stunned if Jack subbed him? No. But I'd be pretty damn surprised.

You gotta look at who we're talking about at MW too. Weidman was an absolute beast grappler at that point. Kennedy too, until he gassed. Jacare prior to his big dropoff (which as I mentioned happened quickly).

 

[mkess101]

I feel like he didn't just get manhandled by Weidman, but also in spurts by Jacare and Kennedy. Problem with the last two is that they gassed hard after round 1. I also feel like Weidman was already out of his prime by then and on the decline.

Kennedy was a beast grappler and a giant at MW too, the guy outgrappled arguably the best pure grappler of all time in Roger Gracie FFS. Jacare at that point was still manhandling everyone in the grappling game at MW, the first time we saw him truly look like he was on a serious decline was vs Hermannson. Weidman's chin was definitely starting to go when he fought Kelvin, I agree there. And Kelvin actually clipped him and hurt him a bit iirc. But Weidman's grappling was still on point, he was a ridiculously good grappler still. Better overall than Hermannson.