UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2

[sonhow]

Does Finney have anything else to offer than his wrestling? All Ive ever seen him do was wrestling. Almost lost to Valentin despite outwrestling him for 15 min. In a very one sided fight tbh. Because thats all he does.

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[guesswhoseback]

This is basically a Fight Night card with a rematch in the main event that nobody asked for. 1/3 of the fighters are UFC debutants from Road to UFC.

My picks:

• Diego Lopes
• Benoit Saint Denis
• Mauricio Ruffy
• Tallison Teixeira
• Quillan Salkilld
• Billy Elekana
• Cameron Rowston
• Torrez Finney
• Oban Elliott

I literally agree with every fight

 

[Tebowned]

Does Finney have anything else to offer than his wrestling? All Ive ever seen him do was wrestling. Almost lost to Valentin despite outwrestling him for 15 min. In a very one sided fight tbh. Because thats all he does.

He does have a powerful overhand. Malkoun is a little chinny.

Malkoun is also coming back from an almost career ending injury:
"It’s been a long year since my last fight. For anyone wondering what’s going on, I have a bulging disc in my lower back that’s hitting the sciatic nerve bringing nerve pain down my right leg. I tried to push through the pain last camp but came to a point where I couldn’t walk after training. I’ve been dealing with it for a good year now, it’s a hard road because there is no time frame. Retiring was on my mind for abit, maybe never coming good was making me anxious, but I think this is all a test to show me how much I want to be the best in the world and when I recover the world will see.
Staying strong and keeping faith that my life is in GODS hands as he is always doing what’s needed to make us better people."

 

[sonhow]

He does have a powerful overhand. Malkoun is a little chinny.

Malkoun is also coming back from an almost career ending injury:
"It’s been a long year since my last fight. For anyone wondering what’s going on, I have a bulging disc in my lower back that’s hitting the sciatic nerve bringing nerve pain down my right leg. I tried to push through the pain last camp but came to a point where I couldn’t walk after training. I’ve been dealing with it for a good year now, it’s a hard road because there is no time frame. Retiring was on my mind for abit, maybe never coming good was making me anxious, but I think this is all a test to show me how much I want to be the best in the world and when I recover the world will see.
Staying strong and keeping faith that my life is in GODS hands as he is always doing what’s needed to make us better people."

Good info

 

[mkess101]

Rematches rarely go the same as the first fight. And I know plenty (me included) are on Lopes over Volk here for a number of reasons (that included). But even aside from just playing Lopes ML, I think we are likely to see him be much more aggressive tomorrow since that's his style and he was far too tentative the first time.

I think Lopes KO rd 1 at +1200 and Lopes rds 1-2 at +425 are both very live.

 

[StewDogg11]

Rematches rarely go the same as the first fight. And I know plenty (me included) are on Lopes over Volk here for a number of reasons (that included). But even aside from just playing Lopes ML, I think we are likely to see him be much more aggressive tomorrow since that's his style and he was far too tentative the first time.

I think Lopes KO rd 1 at +1200 and Lopes rds 1-2 at +425 are both very live.

I’m predicting some kind of highlight reel KO for Lopes. Something wild like a front kick to the face or a spinning back elbow or something.

 

[Guld]

I'm still leaning Volk, but I do agree that if Lopes wins it's likely due to finding a stoppage. So I might grab a hedge on that. Lemme check the odds...
Lopes by Stoppage +175
Yeah, that's a good way to hedge it IMO.

 

[mkess101]

Gun to my head I'll pick BSD over Hooker but these odds are getting stupid.

BSD is a really good grappler but he's not some sort of phenom like Islam or Khabib (or even Arman). His TD's are decent, not great. He's a savage with gnp but he has to get top position first.

Standing, BSD is ultra aggressive and obviously can do huge damage but he's also wild and not technically all that great.

Hooker stuffed Gamrot's TD's enough to survive and did enough damage standing to eek out a decision. We really think BSD is such an elite grappler that Hooker should be +300??

Nah, current odds I'll take a small stab on Dan. He's game, he can win a firefight. This isn't a squash match for BSD and odds are too wide.

 

[Oblivian]

Surprised at the round odds on Volk. I think this is very likely to go to decision or at least 3.

 

[JC615]

Gun to my head I'll pick BSD over Hooker but these odds are getting stupid.

BSD is a really good grappler but he's not some sort of phenom like Islam or Khabib (or even Arman). His TD's are decent, not great. He's a savage with gnp but he has to get top position first.

Standing, BSD is ultra aggressive and obviously can do huge damage but he's also wild and not technically all that great.

Hooker stuffed Gamrot's TD's enough to survive and did enough damage standing to eek out a decision. We really think BSD is such an elite grappler that Hooker should be +300??

Nah, current odds I'll take a small stab on Dan. He's game, he can win a firefight. This isn't a squash match for BSD and odds are too wide.

Agreed. Seeing St. Denis on various book boosts makes me that much more confident in Hooker.

 

[TrueAscension]

Sup OGs - Lopez by finish.
BOL

 

[Spath]

Gun to my head I'll pick BSD over Hooker but these odds are getting stupid.

BSD is a really good grappler but he's not some sort of phenom like Islam or Khabib (or even Arman). His TD's are decent, not great. He's a savage with gnp but he has to get top position first.

Standing, BSD is ultra aggressive and obviously can do huge damage but he's also wild and not technically all that great.

Hooker stuffed Gamrot's TD's enough to survive and did enough damage standing to eek out a decision. We really think BSD is such an elite grappler that Hooker should be +300??

Nah, current odds I'll take a small stab on Dan. He's game, he can win a firefight. This isn't a squash match for BSD and odds are too wide.

Yes!

Agreed. Seeing St. Denis on various book boosts makes me that much more confident in Hooker.

Seconded. Thirded? Something like that.

BSD is a savage who likes to push the pace and makes things dirty. He’s shown time and time again that he can get into firefights with anyone. His striking is good, not great and certainly not very pretty. Him being tough as nails and willing to go through fire make him a good opponent for Hooker!

Hooker has also shown that he can scrap with the best of them (his war with Poirier was one of the all time greats). His grappling isn’t elite, but very serviceable. I don’t think BSD can just roll him over with the grappling. BSD’s best bet is to mix it up like he did vs Ruffy.

So I’m thinking this turns into a good battle. Both guys will land good shots and there will be clinching, maybe some takedowns. When thinking about this kind of a fight I can’t put BSD that far ahead as a favorite. It’s a lot closer

 

[EndlessCritic]

moderate: hooker, fiziev, fan

small: lui, szalay, micallef, malkoun, rowston -3.5, mullarkey +3.5,

action: yizha -3.5, tafa, tuivasa

good luck y'all

 

[sonhow]

BSD will absolutely run through Hooker...or he will get ko'ed in the process.
Ends itd seem rather safe...Im actually a bit changing my mind on this I think that Gamrot fight reeked like a variance result for Dan. BSD once he gets that takedown will punish him worse than Gamrot did. I think he will get that stoppage on the floor.

Volk-Lopes 2 is such a different fight compared to first as long as Diego doesnt fight as passive as he did. Honestly the best gameplan for him would be balls to the walls brawl. He already displayed a granite chin. Anything Volk throws wont hurt him. Meanwhile Volk seemed particularily fragile in the first fight. But my gut feeling says Volk will again win the decision once again. Maybe Diego will be snake charmed into yet another passive fight

No idea on Ruffy-Fiziev. Pass. Good fight though. Fiziev probably if he wrestles tho I dont want to see that lol.

I think Tuivasa is a must play. Texeira already was exposed by Lewis. I thought he had potential but I dont think so anymore. Tuivasa been given so amny chances he needs to take this one. He should have been much better in Jair fight as well. It was a winnable fight yet he didnt do anything. But the fact that he didnt retire says to me he might have one more in him.

 

[Spath]

Volk-Lopes 2 is such a different fight compared to first as long as Diego doesnt fight as passive as he did. Honestly the best gameplan for him would be balls to the walls brawl. He already displayed a granite chin. Anything Volk throws wont hurt him. Meanwhile Volk seemed particularily fragile in the first fight. But my gut feeling says Volk will again win the decision once again. Maybe Diego will be snake charmed into yet another passive fight

I think Lopes being unusually passive was more about Volk being so good. The guy knows his shit. He moves so well and doesn’t get trapped, sees whats coming and gameplans around his strengths and opponents weaknesses well.

When you get beat to the punch pretty much every time it starts to eat away your confidence. Lopes has granite chin but you only can take so much and no one likes to get punched in the face. So Volk needs to get his hespect early on in the fight by getting some good shots in.

I think Lopes has better chances early in the fight. He can catch Volk, that’s for sure. Volk is also getting up there in the age and the weight cuts aren’t getting any easier…

Volk via dec or Lopes R1-2?

 

[sonhow]

I think Lopes being unusually passive was more about Volk being so good. The guy knows his shit. He moves so well and doesn’t get trapped, sees whats coming and gameplans around his strengths and opponents weaknesses well.

When you get beat to the punch pretty much every time it starts to eat away your confidence. Lopes has granite chin but you only can take so much and no one likes to get punched in the face. So Volk needs to get his hespect early on in the fight by getting some good shots in.

I think Lopes has better chances early in the fight. He can catch Volk, that’s for sure. Volk is also getting up there in the age and the weight cuts aren’t getting any easier…

Volk via dec or Lopes R1-2?

Yeah and obviously Volk wont engage him in a brawl and plays the matador game rather than something like a "Jean Silva madness" type of a fight. But I still think the more he takes the risks and plays it like he has to win inside those first two rounds the better his chances get. Volk is way too good for Diego to win an outside or "technique first" fight. Diego needs to take risks and Volk needs to dodge those risks.

So Id say "Volk via dec or Lopes R1-2?" sounds good.

 

[Tebowned]

Thanks for the extra context. Just finished watching Road to UFC 4.

155:
Dom Mar Fan and Kim both have some ugly striking but Mar Fan is relentless in his grappling and scrambles. Kim looks so physically strong though and his grappling doesn't seem bad. He doesn't seem to make the same mistakes that Park did to allow Mar Fan on top so I can see it being tight.
Fan in round 3 or decision at +160 will be a small play for me.

145:
I do like Nakamura here as a dog. I see it as a point fighting match because of their backgrounds and he's a little more dynamic/longer.
I know Nakamura has mostly finishes but I see this going late and maybe a close decision.

135:
I do like Lawrence Lui at +200ish as well. His chin is a little shaky and his he's pretty plodding but he should have the strength and wrestling advantage. He looks huge for 135.
His opponent is very young though so Sulangranbo may have improved his wrestling/ grappling in a short amount of time.
I wouldn't be shocked to see Sulangranbo calf kick him into the ground.

Capped them all pretty well but didn’t make any huge plays lol.
Nakamura didn’t wake up til that 3rd round though.

 

[Tebowned]

My early thoughts:
Volk -145 could be a steal in hindsight or trap. He was controlling 95% of the first fight on the road BUT got hurt bad in that 5%. Most had it 4 rounds to 1. This time he's home.
Cons: Age

BSD and DJ Shallid should roll but odds reflect it.
I liked Ruffy as a dog not so much as a fav. It should be a slow paced striking battle and he has the reach. Ruffy is a better striker than baha imo.
I like the over in the Tai fight and even Tai as a dog.
Billy by sub
Brundage upset maybe or live bet Rowston when he's losing early is the play. Rowston has horrible TDD but Brundage has horrible IQ.
Malkoun by late stoppage after Finney gasses or fight ends in the distance just in case he looks like shit after injury.
If Kaan's odds get wider, I'd take him. He's a tank.

No familiarity with RTUFC fighters but will look into it.

Damn should’ve bet Kaan even thought I thought he lost haha.