UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2

[Guld]

 

[Guld]

I personally like Ruffy. I got him at -105 a few days ago.
I like Volk as well, but father time has gotta be creeping up on him.
I really like Benoit as well, but I hate those odds. Maybe there will be some tempting props or livebets.

 

[sonhow]

If Hooker can get up like he did vs Gamrot he has a very good chance at replicating what Dustin did to BSD. I hope Im wrong since BSD is my boi and a win eventually gets Hooker nowhere else than where hes already been but tempted to play Hooker with this line. In the end BSD has absolutely horrendus striking defense and hes always playing the game off if he can do enough before his opponent can get to him.

 

[StewDogg11]

I played Volkanovski in the first fight but am playing Lopes here. The moment was too big for him then, it won’t be now.

 

[Trupsi]

I played Volkanovski in the first fight but am playing Lopes here. The moment was too big for him then, it won’t be now.

Same. Played Volk with confidence in the 1st, but in this one it'll be dog or pass for me.

I missed Ruffy when he was the dog and took him at 1.85, I feel like Fiziev already peaked while Mauricio is still improving. Rafa has more experience and a better resume but Ruffy will have a clear size/reach advantage and will be able to dictate the pace/distance that he likes. Fiziev can shoot some TD but his ground game sucks so Ruffy should be able to get up quickly.

BSD odds are shitty, I'll see if his ITD is playable.

 

[mkess101]

Same. Played Volk with confidence in the 1st, but in this one it'll be dog or pass for me.

I missed Ruffy when he was the dog and took him at 1.85, I feel like Fiziev already peaked while Mauricio is still improving. Rafa has more experience and a better resume but Ruffy will have a clear size/reach advantage and will be able to dictate the pace/distance that he likes. Fiziev can shoot some TD but his ground game sucks so Ruffy should be able to get up quickly.

BSD odds are shitty, I'll see if his ITD is playable.

I'll be on Fisiev. Ruffy is obviously a super athletic dude with huge finishing ability but he just hasn't beaten anyone close to Rafa's level. His one step up in competition he got absolutely clowned.
Fisiev isn't some amazing grappler but he times TD's well and given how utterly lost Ruffy looked on the mat vs BSD, he at the least may be wary of being taken down. Which makes him less likely to open up his offensive striking.
And Fisiev isn't exactly some bum standing either. Outside his debut, his 3 losses are 2 really close decisions vs freaking Gaethje and a fluke knee injury vs Gamrot.
Maybe Ruffy impresses here but no way I'm not playing Fisiev at dog odds vs a guy who's never come close to beating someone of his caliber.

 

[StewDogg11]

I'll be on Fisiev. Ruffy is obviously a super athletic dude with huge finishing ability but he just hasn't beaten anyone close to Rafa's level. His one step up in competition he got absolutely clowned.
Fisiev isn't some amazing grappler but he times TD's well and given how utterly lost Ruffy looked on the mat vs BSD, he at the least may be wary of being taken down. Which makes him less likely to open up his offensive striking.
And Fisiev isn't exactly some bum standing either. Outside his debut, his 3 losses are 2 really close decisions vs freaking Gaethje and a fluke knee injury vs Gamrot.
Maybe Ruffy impresses here but no way I'm not playing Fisiev at dog odds vs a guy who's never come close to beating someone of his caliber.

Agree. He was undervalued against Bahamondes as well and styled on him pretty easily.

 

[Tebowned]

My early thoughts:
Volk -145 could be a steal in hindsight or trap. He was controlling 95% of the first fight on the road BUT got hurt bad in that 5%. Most had it 4 rounds to 1. This time he's home.
Cons: Age

BSD and DJ Shallid should roll but odds reflect it.
I liked Ruffy as a dog not so much as a fav. It should be a slow paced striking battle and he has the reach. Ruffy is a better striker than baha imo.
I like the over in the Tai fight and even Tai as a dog.
Billy by sub
Brundage upset maybe or live bet Rowston when he's losing early is the play. Rowston has horrible TDD but Brundage has horrible IQ.
Malkoun by late stoppage after Finney gasses or fight ends in the distance just in case he looks like shit after injury.
If Kaan's odds get wider, I'd take him. He's a tank.

No familiarity with RTUFC fighters but will look into it.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Billy by sub

Billy has lost every fight where he has tried to wrestle (Compton, Guskov), it fatigues him greatly, so early the sub is live but if he wrestles and can't get it he will have nothing left later in the fight.

Also, Billy has fought most of his career at 185, whereas Tafa is one fight removed from fighting at HW. Tafa is a much bigger man and trying to wrestle him will drain Billy even faster than it has previously.

I could see Billy not wrestling whatsoever.

 

[EndlessCritic]

No familiarity with RTUFC fighters but will look into it.

Dom Mar Fan at -150 right now feels like the best play. He scored a huge upset in the opening round against Yuji Eophoeviga, and showcased strong grappling in his last fight as well. He's 8-2 and both of his losses are to top UFC contender Quillan Salkilld. (Edit: Didn't realize Ephoeviga just lost again.)

His opponent Sang Uk Kim is a fan favorite, and was a team captain on Netflix's Physical: 100. He's a great athlete in his own right, but when push comes to shove, he's just not a natural fighter.

Otherwise I'll happily play Lawrence Lui for value. I have no lean on that fight and Sulangrangbo -260 makes no sense.

Aaron Tau is a brawler who has no long term future in the UFC. Batbayar is finally getting respect after being the underdog in both of his other fights, and Batbayar destroyed both of his opponents. At +odds Tau is probably the right side.

Keiichiro Nakamura was probably the surprise standout of the season. A shockingly athletic shotokan karate style fighter. But his opponent has looked flawless. Nakamura probably deserves to be the underdog here. Definite no-play on this one.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

1
Tau,Lui,Szalay and Dom.

2
Finney, Elliot.

3
Elekana, Rowston, Fiziev.

 

[Tebowned]

Dom Mar Fan at -150 right now feels like the best play. He scored a huge upset in the opening round against Yuji Eophoeviga, and showcased strong grappling in his last fight as well. He's 8-2 and both of his losses are to top UFC contender Quillan Salkilld. (Edit: Didn't realize Ephoeviga just lost again.)

His opponent Sang Uk Kim is a fan favorite, and was a team captain on Netflix's Physical: 100. He's a great athlete in his own right, but when push comes to shove, he's just not a natural fighter.

Otherwise I'll happily play Lawrence Lui for value. I have no lean on that fight and Sulangrangbo -260 makes no sense.

Aaron Tau is a brawler who has no long term future in the UFC. Batbayar is finally getting respect after being the underdog in both of his other fights, and Batbayar destroyed both of his opponents. At +odds Tau is probably the right side.

Keiichiro Nakamura was probably the surprise standout of the season. A shockingly athletic shotokan karate style fighter. But his opponent has looked flawless. Nakamura probably deserves to be the underdog here. Definite no-play on this one.

Thanks for the extra context. Just finished watching Road to UFC 4.

155:
Dom Mar Fan and Kim both have some ugly striking but Mar Fan is relentless in his grappling and scrambles. Kim looks so physically strong though and his grappling doesn't seem bad. He doesn't seem to make the same mistakes that Park did to allow Mar Fan on top so I can see it being tight.
Fan in round 3 or decision at +160 will be a small play for me.

145:
I do like Nakamura here as a dog. I see it as a point fighting match because of their backgrounds and he's a little more dynamic/longer.
I know Nakamura has mostly finishes but I see this going late and maybe a close decision.

135:
I do like Lawrence Lui at +200ish as well. His chin is a little shaky and his he's pretty plodding but he should have the strength and wrestling advantage. He looks huge for 135.
His opponent is very young though so Sulangranbo may have improved his wrestling/ grappling in a short amount of time.
I wouldn't be shocked to see Sulangranbo calf kick him into the ground.

125:
Aaron Tau is so bad technically. I can not bet him unless he was like +200 also. He slowed down so bad his last fight, arguably lost, and gassing at 125 can't be good.
I do think he has a chance to win the first round and slow so I may look to live bet Batbayar.

 

[Dooze]

One think I do like for Fiz here is how good his kick defence is. He has fantastic distance control. Most leg kicks that do land he checks but he somehow seems to just dodge a lot of them entirely. His last fight is a great example of it, I can't remember if it was the first or second round but Ignacio threw about a dozen leg kicks in the round and Fiziev was able to just adjust his leg slightly and get out of the way of them entirely.

High kicks he's obviously great at avoiding too, very good reactions and his dexterity means has him dodging them like he's out of The Matrix.

I think it'll take away a lot of Ruffys success. He's a wild man and entertaining to watch but iirc he's very kick heavy, throws a lot of flashy high exertion stuff and I think Fiz will just block or avoid a lot of it. Fiz has great bodywork too, he mixes up his punches to the head and body well, next to no telegraph on his kicks and I think he'll go to that quite a lot early to deter Ruffy from advancing forward. Same with knees when Ruffy comes forward, I think Fiz just targets the body often with knees and kicks.

He's got power, hits hard and often and is very technical. He's not afraid to go for takedowns either which I like. I don't think he's good enough to ground Ruffy consistently and keep him there but I like that it's an option he'll lean on.

Genuinely think he's one of the best strikers in the division, probably only behind Ilia, Holloway and Gaethje (2 close fights with Justin as well). More than happy to take him as a pick em or underdog in what should be a stand up affair.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Batybar-sub(-130)
Sulang-dec(-255)
Szlaya-dec(+100)
Mar fan-dec(-170)
Zha yi-dec(-186)
Elliott-dec(+110)
Finney-dec(+115)
Rowston-dec(-350)
Elekna-ko(-230)
Salkilld-ko(-800)
Teixeria-ko(-260)
Ruffy-dec(-128)
Saint denis-sub(-330)
Loprz-dec(+127)

.not current lines these were the odds after i taped the fights

 

[Oblivian]

Fiz should outwork Ruffy IMO.

 

[EndlessCritic]

can't believe these lines are forcing me to put money on tuivasa and junior tafa.

 

[guidi]

Understand some people saying time may have caught up to Volk but I don't think Lopes is going to be the guy, at the end of the day Lopes has only 1 win since the loss and I feel like Volk still has the edge and knows the gameplan to execute again, also this is taking place in Australia as well and Volk will not lack motivation especially at home, Volk by Decision at +190 before dropping felt like a good line.

 

[Spath]

Understand some people saying time may have caught up to Volk but I don't think Lopes is going to be the guy, at the end of the day Lopes has only 1 win since the loss and I feel like Volk still has the edge and knows the gameplan to execute again, also this is taking place in Australia as well and Volk will not lack motivation especially at home, Volk by Decision at +190 before dropping felt like a good line.

Volk’s boxing is so much ahead of Lopes’ that I see Volk outlanding him and beating him to the punch most of the time. He did it last time and he’ll do it again. Volk also has better footwork and he can control the range to take away some of the threats Lopes poses.

Lopes has surprisingly bad straight right. He’s a good all-around fighter, he has a great chin, aggression, ground game and scrambles… What he doesn’t have, IMO, is a striking game to put Volkanovski away.

People forgot about Volkanovski because he lost to Islam and Topuria… He may have lost a step, but he’s still the guy that beat Max Holloway thrice. That guy doesn’t get run over by a well rounded wild man.