UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett

[EndlessCritic]

I'm not saying it's likely but Alexander Hernandez by sub at +1100 is worth looking at.

MJ has been subbed 9 times, most of those in the UFC, and is usually a turtle on his back.

Cons: Hernandez has no sub wins in the UFC and MJ has looked good lately albeit against strikers.

pulyaev by sub is +3300 on my book... jesus

 

[sonhow]

Gautier ko rd 1 is + odds

Too obvious of a result to happen? But does anything else keep the narrative intact?
Hmmmm

 

[SalvadorAllende]

I think Silva starches Allen. I like Allen but I don't think he is that good tbh.

Also why is Justin like +200? Kind of like that.
I mean.. Paddy has been looking good but in the las 3 years he fought 3 times against aging versions of Tony, Green and Chandler. Gaethje should be the best competition he's had so far.

 

[PuertoRican]

Watch the first 45 seconds. Wild shit.

----------

• Figgy looks terrible and kept walking in the wrong direction.
• Ateba Gautier looked bad.
• Umar looked bad but energetic.
• Bukauskas looked great and probably on the juice.
• Alex Perez looked bad.

- Perez 128.5 instead of 125
- Deiveson 138.5 instead of 135
- Smotherman vs. Turcios is canceled

 

[Dooze]

Just saw video of Smotherman. Hopefully he's okay and moves up in weight class next fight. Weight cutting is one of the worst parts of this sport, people putting their body under serious stress 24 hours before someone tries to put them unconscious is crazy, especially for shit like 12k show money from the supposed elite of the elite promotion.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Just saw video of Smotherman. Hopefully he's okay and moves up in weight class next fight.

He's too small to fight at 145 in the UFC he wouldn't be competitive.

 

[Tebowned]

Hernandez went from -215 at open to now -112.

Sharp action or not so secret injury?

 

[StewDogg11]

Hernandez went from -215 at open to now -112.

Sharp action or not so secret injury?

I don’t know but Hernandez at -215 was craziness. I got MJ at +138 and I thought even that was a good price.

 

[mkess101]

No surprise, but that faceplant by Smotherman got that fight canceled.

 

[TheMMAnalyst]

What do you guys think about playing the props against each other in the main event? I think Justin by KO/TKO is the best value, but was thinking about the insurance prop:

-Justin by KO/TKO seems by far the most likely way he will win @ +400
-Paddy by Submission seems by far the most likely way he will win @ +130

Was thinking I'd put 2 units on Gaethje by KO and 1.5 units on Paddy by Sub - if Paddy wins by Sub it's a push, if Justin gets a KO/TKO win 6.5 units net. Seems like a pretty solid "almost free-roll" since Paddy has poor striking defense and Justin has poor grappling defense, very unlikely to go to a decision with how both are so offense oriented/defensively lacking in areas.

Thoughts?

 

[Tebowned]

What do you guys think about playing the props against each other in the main event? I think Justin by KO/TKO is the best value, but was thinking about the insurance prop:

-Justin by KO/TKO seems by far the most likely way he will win @ +400
-Paddy by Submission seems by far the most likely way he will win @ +130

Was thinking I'd put 2 units on Gaethje by KO and 1.5 units on Paddy by Sub - if Paddy wins by Sub it's a push, if Justin gets a KO/TKO win 6.5 units net. Seems like a pretty solid "almost free-roll" since Paddy has poor striking defense and Justin has poor grappling defense, very unlikely to go to a decision with how both are so offense oriented/defensively lacking in areas.

Thoughts?

I think ITD sounds better to me. Just in case Paddy ground and pounds him. Only way it loses if it goes to the cards.

 

[TheMMAnalyst]

I think ITD sounds better to me. Just in case Paddy ground and pounds him. Only way it loses if it goes to the cards.

Justin is really good at scrambling into submissions - I don’t think he’ll let Paddy establish mount ever if it gets there, he’ll give his back or explode and end up in a triangle most likely.

There is definitely a chance though, so might be better off saying fuck the insurance and just take the risk. To me it’s a coin-flip fight, so to get Justin by KO at +400 when it should be like +250 seems like plenty of free equity.

 

[sonhow]

He's too small to fight at 145 in the UFC he wouldn't be competitive.

Better that than what ever the heck that was

He aint having much future at 135 either. Better to do it undersized unless he can stablize his weight cut but if I were ufc I wouldnt let him.

 

[mkess101]

What do you guys think about playing the props against each other in the main event? I think Justin by KO/TKO is the best value, but was thinking about the insurance prop:

-Justin by KO/TKO seems by far the most likely way he will win @ +400
-Paddy by Submission seems by far the most likely way he will win @ +130

Was thinking I'd put 2 units on Gaethje by KO and 1.5 units on Paddy by Sub - if Paddy wins by Sub it's a push, if Justin gets a KO/TKO win 6.5 units net. Seems like a pretty solid "almost free-roll" since Paddy has poor striking defense and Justin has poor grappling defense, very unlikely to go to a decision with how both are so offense oriented/defensively lacking in areas.

Thoughts?

At first glance seems fine...but honestly the more I think about this fight the more I think it's NOT a lock this ends itd. It **should**...but Whitman has a way of formulating a gameplan that always leans more tactical. He **might** decide that Justin's best ptv is sticking and moving and staying at distance. And given how plodding Paddy's striking is sometimes, Justin **might** be able to do it.

Not saying I this is my prediction or anything but it's more possible than I think we all believe.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Final hours to bet Song Yadong. Can't wait to come back tomorrow and tell you "I told you so." Keep burning money on Malley and Malley DEC.

Show bet slip expert

 

[MidgardSerpent]

They're introducing monetary incentives for finishes again, $25k. And, the usual(?) $100k for Performance of the night, and $100k for Fight of the night.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Pinnacle pulled the Hernandez/ Johnson fight and BetOnline have put a cap on how much you can bet on it.

I don't think this fight is fixed though

Edit: Fight now scrapped

 

[Tebowned]

Pinnacle pulled the Hernandez/ Johnson fight and BetOnline have put a cap on how much you can bet on it.

I don't think this fight is fixed though

Edit: Fight now scrapped

No reason for fight cancellation last I checked. Some sportsbooks didn’t even allow you to bet props on the fight.

 

[PuertoRican]

14 fights > 13 fights > 12 fights > now 11 fights left on the first-ever UFC card on Paramount+.

 

[sonhow]

14 fights > 13 fights > 12 fights > now 11 fights left on the first-ever UFC card on Paramount+.

Fight being fixed is a pretty good reason to cancel it imo