UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev

[svmr_db]

Murphy KO is +760 kinda crazy given how chinny Pico is.

Bruh that knee Borics landed on him would've taken out anybody lol.

 

[jnes]

Michal has been subbed a ton but its weird how this still feels stylistically good for him because he aint prone to gassing nor is Gerard a big, physical dude that will throw him around before snatching a sub. That leaves the Kevin Holland option of sub from back after knockdown but not sure if Gerard has that in him.

I dont blame for taking dog but Im kinda feeling Michal myself.

I think Gerald sub +400 is solid. He's not going to ko Michal and a decision probably favours Michal. Michal has been subbed by much lesser grapplers. I think Gerald snatches up a sub more than 20% of the time. Just a sprinkle of course, wouldn't be surprised if Michal flatlines him in round 1.

 

[Thesnake101]

Bruh that knee Borics landed on him would've taken out anybody lol.

We ignoring how he got iced by Corrales?

 

[PuertoRican]

The only good fighter from last night's DWCS is already fighting this Saturday. He's Khamzat Chimaev training partner.

Baisangur Susurkaev vs. Eric Nolan

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Everyone publicly is on Murphy, but his odds keep going out

That means all the sharps who make a living off betting on the sport are on him.

It's risky

 

[sonhow]

Everyone publicly is on Murphy, but his odds keep going out

That means all the sharps who make a living off betting on the sport are on him.

It's risky

Aaron Pico has charisma. Or something like that. Lets just say when he performs people pay attention. These types of fighters tend to do good in their big stage debuts if theres some pre fight hype or interest how the fighter does. MVP and Chandler and even Paddy and Conor come to mind. Then the quiet "no nonsense elite" fighter like Brooks, Mix and Hioki struggle because suddenly the attention is on them and the stage is much bigger.

Ive already played Murphy but it just adds to the theory if Pico gets the rd 1 stoppage for example.

 

[mkess101]

Khamzat getting steamed here fight week. I have him -185 to close 2 parlays. Seeing he's now -240 to -260. Interesting. Saw that line holding steady, didn't think there'd be much movement.

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[Dooze]

Shame, was looking forward to that fight.

 

[PuertoRican]

Down to 13 fights, which isn't bad, but my dick was getting hard seeing a 15-fight card in 2025.

 

[Oblivian]

I pretty much hold off on betting now until weigh ins. There is always so much shuffling.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Placed my bets early and sadly won't be able to watch the fights. Going for 5th winning event in a row good luck everyone

Idris morales-ov 2.5-140
Battle-152 might bet more on him later
Klose/Barbosa-ov 2.5 -152
Hooper/hermadez-ov 2.5-105
Godinez-145 might put more on her later
Susurkaev/nolan-ov 1.5+170
Meershit/oleksiejczuk-un 1.5-115
Elliot/askura-ov 2.5-135
Cannoier+175
Pirates/near un 2.5+111
Murphy+155
Du plesis/hazmat-ov 2.5+100


Best of luck to all

 

[XociDe]

The idea of Aaron Pico is definitely more impressive than Aaron Pico the fighter, but Murphy is on like 2 weeks notice which is probably why he's the dog. It's hard to trust short notice fighters because anything can happen. He could look amazing or gas after the first.

 

[Dooze]

Really excited for this DDP/Khamzat fight. I did think DDP would be noticeably bigger but Khamzat looks big.

Gun to my head I think Khamzat gets an early takedown or 2 and slaps on a choke, DDP either taps or sleeps. If DDP can get through it and get back to his feet though, man I think we could be in for a crazy fight. Big part of DDPs style is the chaos, and threatening almost everything. If he survives that initial takedown I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if he shoots on Khamzat. Not many people have done other than Gil and Usman who were unsuccessful, but it would be very interesting to see if DDP can and how Khamzat looks off of his back.

I'm tempted somewhat by Neal as a decent underdog too. I think with Prates he could win a decision but Neal is a solid striker and I think will make it a close fight. One of the main reasons for the odds is Prates KO threat but Neal has done well to avoid being KO'ed in his career - never been knocked out in the UFC and only once in his career against Holland in the 3rd. I actually think this fight hits the cards so might have a play on that at + odds. Neal Dec @ 6 and Neal +3.5 @ 2.25 jumps out at me too - Prates is obviously the bigger KO threat but I think Neal is quite defensively sound and don't think there's a huge gap or anything in terms of technical ability. Maybe I'm wrong and Prates blows through him but I think it ends up being quite close on the feet.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Chase Hooper by Submission – Winning Method
A. Hernandez vs Ch. Hooper — +185


Edson Barboza by KO/TKO/DQ – Winning Method
E. Barboza vs D. Klose — +300


Michael Page by Decision – Winning Method
J. Cannonier vs M. Page — +115


Michal Oleksiejczuk by KO/TKO/DQ – Winning Method
G. Meerschaert vs M. Oleksiejczuk — +100


N. Ruziboev – Winner
N. Ruziboev vs B. Battle — +140


(C) Dricus Du Plessis by Decision – Winning Method
D. Du Plessis vs K. Chimaev — +600


J. Andrade ML

 

[Aurelian]

Battle vs Ruzi is off. Battle missed weight by four pounds. Probably best thing for me since I bet Ruzi.

 

[Dooze]

That's twice in a row he's missed weight now. 175 in his previous fight at 170, 190 in this fight at 185.

Expecting a bit of punishment for this in some way. Maybe even force him to only fight at 205 since he's a fucking liability. Stupid for him too because he put together a solid run at 170 and wasn't far from a ranked fight, now he's never getting offered a fight there again.

 

[Bakayoko]

Murphy on short notice baked in it's still a wide line.Took Murphy +3,5 at 1.69

 

[dwightschrute111]

How on earth is Pico fav vs Murphy, Murphy KO or dec at worst

 

[PuertoRican]

Battle vs Ruzi is off. Battle missed weight by four pounds. Probably best thing for me since I bet Ruzi.

I blame @Oblivian.