UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic

[StewDogg11]

He took him down in the first and got 3 mins of control time. Got stuffed in the rest of his attempts.

Wasn’t that back control against the cage where he was mainly kneeing his thighs? I don’t remember Weidman having nearly any top control in that fight.

 

[GetSomeSuga]

Best parlay (-185):

Jones -650
Silva -300

Great pre bets/ live bets after round 1:

Oliveira -250
Jackson -185
Tybura -125
Anders -115
McGee -120
Gall -135

 

[GetSomeSuga]

JONES TKO
I think Jones wins early by ground and pound finish. The gloves are old so there is an option to poke in the eye. The UFC needs a clear GOAT of the sport and this is their opportunity to cement the organizations history.

OLIVEIRA SUB
Oliveira is a fighter of a much higher level than Chandler. If Michael doesnt win by KO in the 1st round, then I dont see many options for him. To me it seems like Charles has future goals in this sport. Rematch Holloway for the BMF belt or rematch Islam for the championship belt.

SILVA DEC
Araujo is clearly a level higher than all those with whom Silva fought before. And if you look at it this way, Silva had a difficult 3rd round with Lipski where she was missing punches and gassed out. If we watch Lipskis fight with Jasmine, she simply destroys her. I dont pick Araujo to win because shes almost 38 and her cardio isnt good.

MCGEE KO
McGee is a pressure fighter, doesnt pay attention to damage, and hits very hard. Against Martinez, this style can be very appropriate. I havent seen this guy knocked down and he looks pretty confident overall. If Martinez can constantly move, then as a matador he can drag this fight out. But Martinez isnt exactly a runner. McGee will push forward and not give Jonathan much time to think about his actions. Martinez has a better level of opposition but he has fallen in those fights. His gas tank and durability is in question.

ANDERS DEC
Anders is not a fighter who dominates his opponents so this may be a close fight where Chris can win one round. It’s clear that Chris is old but Anders is not a boy either, hes already 37. The fact that Eryk is a southpaw can certainly create problems for Weidman.

JACKSON DEC
Miller is a very experienced fighter but hes 41 years old and theres only a few fights left for him. Jackson is younger and bigger. For Jackson, the most important thing here will be to survive the first round because Miller clearly slows down after the first round.

TYBURA DEC
I cant say that Tybura wins confidently given the fact that new gloves are coming back. Its still possible to break through Tybura. If Lane and Williams are wrestling him then a grappler of Tyburas level can certaintly take him down and get a finish.

GALL DEC
Brahimaj has a chance to pull off a choke in the first round. The only problem is that Mickey has never lost by submission. Gall should clearly be better on the feet. As for Ramiz, if he doesn't succeed in the first, then he will get ran over.

HAFEZ DEC
Parsons has no power so there was no danger and as it turned out, Elliot wrestles better than Parsons. But Hafez has a punch and a wrestling base. Size dimensions are not on Oban's side either. Hafez at least managed to test himself with Maddalena. I don't see a huge gap in all aspects for Elliot to be such a big favorite.

 

[Brady12Gronk87]

Charles kinda went from a guy who folds when hurt to a guy who can get rocked but come back and finish. Plenty of those times where he folded were at 145 where he never should have been fighting so that's likely some of it. But looking at it he's been hit hard and stung by elite guys (Gaethje, Porier, Chandler) and came back to finish them all.

Somewhere along the line he flipped the script from "quitter" to a guy who will fight through adversity.

He’s mastered submissions to the point where as long as he is cognizant in scrambles and getting popped, he almost relishes those moments now

 

[Brady12Gronk87]

JONES TKO
I think Jones wins early by ground and pound finish. The gloves are old so there is an option to poke in the eye. The UFC needs a clear GOAT of the sport and this is their opportunity to cement the organizations history.

OLIVEIRA SUB
Oliveira is a fighter of a much higher level than Chandler. If Michael doesnt win by KO in the 1st round, then I dont see many options for him. To me it seems like Charles has future goals in this sport. Rematch Holloway for the BMF belt or rematch Islam for the championship belt.

SILVA DEC
Araujo is clearly a level higher than all those with whom Silva fought before. And if you look at it this way, Silva had a difficult 3rd round with Lipski where she was missing punches and gassed out. If we watch Lipskis fight with Jasmine, she simply destroys her. I dont pick Araujo to win because shes almost 38 and her cardio isnt good.

MCGEE KO
McGee is a pressure fighter, doesnt pay attention to damage, and hits very hard. Against Martinez, this style can be very appropriate. I havent seen this guy knocked down and he looks pretty confident overall. If Martinez can constantly move, then as a matador he can drag this fight out. But Martinez isnt exactly a runner. McGee will push forward and not give Jonathan much time to think about his actions. Martinez has a better level of opposition but he has fallen in those fights. His gas tank and durability is in question.

ANDERS DEC
Anders is not a fighter who dominates his opponents so this may be a close fight where Chris can win one round. It’s clear that Chris is old but Anders is not a boy either, hes already 37. The fact that Eryk is a southpaw can certainly create problems for Weidman.

JACKSON DEC
Miller is a very experienced fighter but hes 41 years old and theres only a few fights left for him. Jackson is younger and bigger. For Jackson, the most important thing here will be to survive the first round because Miller clearly slows down after the first round.

TYBURA DEC
I cant say that Tybura wins confidently given the fact that new gloves are coming back. Its still possible to break through Tybura. If Lane and Williams are wrestling him then a grappler of Tyburas level can certaintly take him down and get a finish.

GALL DEC
Brahimaj has a chance to pull off a choke in the first round. The only problem is that Mickey has never lost by submission. Gall should clearly be better on the feet. As for Ramiz, if he doesn't succeed in the first, then he will get ran over.

HAFEZ DEC
Parsons has no power so there was no danger and as it turned out, Elliot wrestles better than Parsons. But Hafez has a punch and a wrestling base. Size dimensions are not on Oban's side either. Hafez at least managed to test himself with Maddalena. I don't see a huge gap in all aspects for Elliot to be such a big favorite.

Oban was an underdog against parsons and I made good money on that one. Obans striking looked ELITE against Woodburn the fight before, and then he won that technical fight against high pressuring parsons

 

[sonhow]

That Kevin holland fight is jim miller in a nutshell. Swear hollands chin has improved over the years because miller hit some clean ones in rd 1. He got pieced after though. Think you’re spot on.

Kevin Holland or Bobbeh Green?

 

[mkess101]

Probably already mentioned but Jones 11 lbs lighter than vs Gane and didn't look to have that gut. Could mean nothing, but kinda makes me think he plans to strike more from the outside and not try to wrestle? We gonna see oblique kicks galore and Jones happy to try to coast to a decision win vs takedown and gnp?

 

[Stat_Collector]

JONES TKO
I think Jones wins early by ground and pound finish. The gloves are old so there is an option to poke in the eye. The UFC needs a clear GOAT of the sport and this is their opportunity to cement the organizations history.

OLIVEIRA SUB
Oliveira is a fighter of a much higher level than Chandler. If Michael doesnt win by KO in the 1st round, then I dont see many options for him. To me it seems like Charles has future goals in this sport. Rematch Holloway for the BMF belt or rematch Islam for the championship belt.

SILVA DEC
Araujo is clearly a level higher than all those with whom Silva fought before. And if you look at it this way, Silva had a difficult 3rd round with Lipski where she was missing punches and gassed out. If we watch Lipskis fight with Jasmine, she simply destroys her. I dont pick Araujo to win because shes almost 38 and her cardio isnt good.

MCGEE KO
McGee is a pressure fighter, doesnt pay attention to damage, and hits very hard. Against Martinez, this style can be very appropriate. I havent seen this guy knocked down and he looks pretty confident overall. If Martinez can constantly move, then as a matador he can drag this fight out. But Martinez isnt exactly a runner. McGee will push forward and not give Jonathan much time to think about his actions. Martinez has a better level of opposition but he has fallen in those fights. His gas tank and durability is in question.

ANDERS DEC
Anders is not a fighter who dominates his opponents so this may be a close fight where Chris can win one round. It’s clear that Chris is old but Anders is not a boy either, hes already 37. The fact that Eryk is a southpaw can certainly create problems for Weidman.

JACKSON DEC
Miller is a very experienced fighter but hes 41 years old and theres only a few fights left for him. Jackson is younger and bigger. For Jackson, the most important thing here will be to survive the first round because Miller clearly slows down after the first round.

TYBURA DEC
I cant say that Tybura wins confidently given the fact that new gloves are coming back. Its still possible to break through Tybura. If Lane and Williams are wrestling him then a grappler of Tyburas level can certaintly take him down and get a finish.

GALL DEC
Brahimaj has a chance to pull off a choke in the first round. The only problem is that Mickey has never lost by submission. Gall should clearly be better on the feet. As for Ramiz, if he doesn't succeed in the first, then he will get ran over.

HAFEZ DEC
Parsons has no power so there was no danger and as it turned out, Elliot wrestles better than Parsons. But Hafez has a punch and a wrestling base. Size dimensions are not on Oban's side either. Hafez at least managed to test himself with Maddalena. I don't see a huge gap in all aspects for Elliot to be such a big favorite.

Not bad picks but so many of these should be prop bets with finishes.

Tybura sub seems better than dec since he's got a large margin skill gap with grappling.

Gall also can sub here. Brahimaj had his back taken by Court Mghee and was put in an arm triangle, he's been put on his back by some regional bums in the past.

Silva sub as well. Araujo also is not just old but easily out grappled by Ribas, and Silva only has 1 dec win, her best prop at over 400+ odds for sub was an easy play for me.

Hafez Ko at 1000+ Oban was knocked down by low level can Val Woodburn. and his main method of losses was knockouts. He's obviously got chin issues. Hafez has 1 ko win, but this is because his prefer method of finishing fights are subs, he has very capable power to knock out Oban.

I know some of these wont hit, but why not get more bang for your buck? Dec lines usually bring in the less reward, and you may not even be picking the correct winner.

 

[mkess101]

He’s mastered submissions to the point where as long as he is cognizant in scrambles and getting popped, he almost relishes those moments now

He also clearly hits like a truck himself at LW. He's rocking elite guys with strikes almost every fight.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Submission is live if he can get him down. People seem to forget how good his jiu jitsu is.

Anders out bjj Daukus who is decent, idk how bad he'll be to get subbed. i can only see him winning a dec.

 

[mkess101]

Anders out bjj Daukus who is decent, idk how bad he'll be to get subbed. i can only see him winning a dec.

Weidman has had a weird career in terms of how little he's used offensive bjj given how good he is. The guy is a legit grappling savant. He was obviously a helluva wrestler but he went to Abu Dhabi after only 9 months of bjj training and gave Andre Galvao all he wanted. Which is absolutely insane. People were legit blown away at how quickly he became a world class grappler. But he's rarely cared to use it in MMA. At least in the UFC.

 

[sonhow]

I dont think Ive seen such confidence in main card favs in some time. Seems every one are picking these winners. Soooo should we just once again follow the theme of this year and pay all the juice on 5 fight parlay or is someone going to stumble? Only-time-will-tell!

 

[Stat_Collector]

Weidman has had a weird career in terms of how little he's used offensive bjj given how good he is. The guy is a legit grappling savant. He was obviously a helluva wrestler but he went to Abu Dhabi after only 9 months of bjj training and gave Andre Galvao all he wanted. Which is absolutely insane. People were legit blown away at how quickly he became a world class grappler. But he's rarely cared to use it in MMA. At least in the UFC.

yeah i dont think other than cage stalling , do i really see him putting on a grappling clinic here. Wrestling at his age has to be more exhausting. Maybe the occasional takedown to throw him off.

 

[mkess101]

yeah i dont think other than cage stalling , do i really see him putting on a grappling clinic here. Wrestling at his age has to be more exhausting. Maybe the occasional takedown to throw him off.

Yeah and it's not even just his age. Outside the Gastelum fight, I really can't remember a time in the UFC where he has wrecked someone using his grappling. Which is so damn weird given that the guy could have done it to most of the roster.

 

[mkess101]

I dont think Ive seen such confidence in main card favs in some time. Seems every one are picking these winners. Soooo should we just once again follow the theme of this year and pay all the juice on 5 fight parlay or is someone going to stumble? Only-time-will-tell!

Araujo and Chandler both live imo even though I do pick Charles and Silva.

Jones is also too juiced. Yes he probably wins and yes he should be a big favorite. Like...-300 or whatever. But why would anyone add him at this price to a parlay? How much more is it getting you? And we've only seen Jones at HW for a few minutes against a guy that clearly wanted to be ANYWHERE else than in that cage that night. Stipe may well be fully washed and a speed bump. He's old, ridiculous layoff, etc. But what IF the time off is what he needed and he comes out looking fresh and takes Jon by surprise? He's 10 lbs heavier, no huge size edge for Jones like all his LHW fights.
Again, of course I pick Jones. But -650? C'mon.

 

[sonhow]

Araujo and Chandler both live imo even though I do pick Charles and Silva.

Jones is also too juiced. Yes he probably wins and yes he should be a big favorite. Like...-300 or whatever. But why would anyone add him at this price to a parlay? How much more is it getting you? And we've only seen Jones at HW for a few minutes against a guy that clearly wanted to be ANYWHERE else than in that cage that night. Stipe may well be fully washed and a speed bump. He's old, ridiculous layoff, etc. But what IF the time off is what he needed and he comes out looking fresh and takes Jon by surprise? He's 10 lbs heavier, no huge size edge for Jones like all his LHW fights.
Again, of course I pick Jones. But -650? C'mon.

Tbf for entertainment sake I hope someone stumbles as long as its not Ruffy

 

[sonhow]

https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2024/11/ufc-309-eryk-anders-drug-abuse-alabama-football

The cards "new man" is apparently Eryk Anders

 

[Bradillac]

Araujo and Chandler both live imo even though I do pick Charles and Silva.

Jones is also too juiced. Yes he probably wins and yes he should be a big favorite. Like...-300 or whatever. But why would anyone add him at this price to a parlay? How much more is it getting you? And we've only seen Jones at HW for a few minutes against a guy that clearly wanted to be ANYWHERE else than in that cage that night. Stipe may well be fully washed and a speed bump. He's old, ridiculous layoff, etc. But what IF the time off is what he needed and he comes out looking fresh and takes Jon by surprise? He's 10 lbs heavier, no huge size edge for Jones like all his LHW fights.
Again, of course I pick Jones. But -650? C'mon.

This is what I don’t get about the confidence some people have in Jones. Both guys have massive question marks next to their names. Jones has had one fight in the last 4 years against a guy with a massive hole in his game that he could exploit. Beyond that fight, Jones has not looked great in over 5 years. He has also had tons of legal and drug issues to deal with over the past few years. We also still don’t really know how Jones will look with the extra weight at HW, but him coming in lighter than he was against Gane is probably a good thing for him. He looked super awkward at the start of that fight.

Stipe has obviously had a long layoff, and it’s anyone’s guess what condition/mindset he’s in right now, but I think a motivated and in-shape Stipe could be an awful matchup for the Jones we’ve seen over the past 5 years.

 

[mkess101]

This is what I don’t get about the confidence some people have in Jones. Both guys have massive question marks next to their names. Jones has had one fight in the last 4 years against a guy with a massive hole in his game that he could exploit. Beyond that fight, Jones has not looked great in over 5 years. He has also had tons of legal and drug issues to deal with over the past few years. We also still don’t really know how Jones will look with the extra weight at HW, but him coming in lighter than he was against Gane is probably a good thing for him. He looked super awkward at the start of that fight.

Stipe has obviously had a long layoff, and it’s anyone’s guess what condition/mindset he’s in right now, but I think a motivated and in-shape Stipe could be an awful matchup for the Jones we’ve seen over the past 5 years.

Yep. I get favoring Jones. I even get heavily favoring him. But 6 to 1? Who thinks that's a good bet?

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

12 PYRAMIDS - 8.33% on ticket
4 processes
1 Eduarda Moura to W 2.25

2 Jim Miller to W 2.40

3 Chris Weidman to W 2.00

4 Ruffy vs Llontop 1.5 rounds over and Oban Elliot to W 2.30

5 Karine Silva to W by DEC 2.05

6 Jones vs Miocic 2.5 rounds over 2.20

7 Tybura vs Diniz 1.5 rounds over and Oliveira to W 2.30

8 Nickal vs Craig 1.5 rounds over 2.55

9 McGhee and Jones to W 2.00

10 Ramiz Brahimaj to W 2.10

11 Hafez vs Elliot 2.5 rounds over and Jones vs Miocic 1.5 rounds over 2.05

12 Oliveira to W, Silva to W, Ruffy to W 2.10

RISKIEST PICK BRAHIMAJ TO W
First process

Small stake on Nickal by decision 10.00

Onama 1.5 rounds UNDER 2.05
Weidman vs Anders cancelled.