UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree

This has to be the public underdog of the year. Most Tapology users pick favorites. So if 80% of people are PICKING (not betting)
the underdog, u can only imagine how many sheep are betting Aldo at + money.

But yet the line only moved from -160 to -140 on average. That means the bookmakers don’t respect Aldo bettors. Those bettors are labeled as “square” in their system.

When I saw everybody betting Omalley and Merab closed as slight favorite, that gave me confidence
 
There aren’t a lot of good spots on this card unless your willing to take a leap of faith.
 
Stat_Collector said:
There aren’t a lot of good spots on this card unless your willing to take a leap of faith.
Click to expand...
Isn't that the meaning of gambling?

But for real, I didn't find anything on the prelims that was too compelling. Certain spots I could see myself playing, sure, but nothing to feel real confident about. On the other hand next card there's already a dog I really like, Argueta over Haddon at +160.
 
Tempted by Aldo at dog odds.

I like Bautista, he's an exciting good prospect who has passed most tests he's faced, but then the same could be said for Martinez.

Aldo despite his age and decline is still at an elite level in my eyes, maybe an elite gatekeeper? If you beat him, you're likely a fight away from a title shot. Mario isn't going to be able to take him down so it's reliant on Mario either KOing Aldo which I think is unlikely, or him being able to outstrike Aldo and I'm not sure if I see that happening.

Aldo obviously has killer leg kicks even if he doesn't always utilise them quite as much as I'd like. His boxing is still very sharp, he rips to the body like few fighters do. Mario could maybe win minutes with constant pressure, but I don't know. I don't know if he has the ability to neutralise Aldo.

I think it's one of those spots that have come up often with Aldo in recent years where he's up against an up and coming contender and he proves they're not at that level yet. I do think the level of competition is vastly different too. Mario has looked great on his run, but ultimately I think there's a big difference between outstriking Ricky Simon, Blackshear and Perrin and outstriking Jose Aldo.

I think on paper Martinez's wins were over better opponents that Bautista, and we saw him comfortably handle Martinez.

Some divisions are tighter than others, you can see guys 15-25th beating top 3-5 guys. Bantamweight is different though, I think often we see there are levels to it. It's so difficult to crack the top 10, even moreso at the top 5. Aldo can't beat the top 5 anymore but I think he beats almost any BW outside of that.

For Mario to beat him I think he'll have to prove he's at that elite of the elite level of Merab, Sean Corey, Umar etc and I just don't think he's there yet. If he is though, I'll be happy to see him take that next step. Instead I think we get an Aldo decision and a fun headliner of Aldo Vs Vera for a Fight Night card if he is willing to do 5 rounds (where I'm a bit more hesitant) or on the main card of a PPV in 3 rounds where I'm once again getting looking at Aldo at dog odds.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Isn't that the meaning of gambling?

But for real, I didn't find anything on the prelims that was too compelling. Certain spots I could see myself playing, sure, but nothing to feel real confident about. On the other hand next card there's already a dog I really like, Argueta over Haddon at +160.
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The common theme here is old vs youth

It’s either i eat crow for betting against a legend or for ignoring basic stats that 40 year olds lose more.

for props i need a big leap maybe i can get decent high odds finishes, i’m predicting a majority of these fights will end in decision.

I want some kos and subs but so many fighters in this card are solid durable and decent sub defense.

And the kos and subs that are obvious, are super juiced.

I would need to take a leap on some of these props:

Cesar/Ihor fgtd or Cesar dec 825+

Osp/Spann over 240+

Perreira ko 2-3

Buckley and Holland ko prop is around 400+ but their counter parts are durable.

Id have to really consider spamming dec multiple times and hope for a boring card.

I feel strongly the females have better spots than the boys. but i hate wmma.

You have any decent props?
 
Georges Hefner said:
Tail these picks 💯 you’ll be good

Rountree
Pennington
Holland
Buckley
OSP
Bautista
Hernandez
Click to expand...
Rountree is mid. He needs a lucky homerun shot to win it, there is levels to this. He loss to guys that Alex would never lose to. He has no major upside.

Pennington, her whole fighting style
is cagestalling, and a paper champ. why Pena is a dog when she beat Nunes makes no sense.

Holland only seems playable if i can get a ko out of him, he’s a known flake.

Buckley is on a streak but it’s not a streak Thompson could not do. You’re praying Wonderboy is washed here.

Osp is still washed, Spann is a better more explosive version of Kennedy . Osp only hope is a leg kick decision win.

Bautista could best Aldo, but that Aldo that beat Martinez shows up, he can take him. Id favor Martinez over Bautista.

Hernandez got out struck by Damon, he may very well be past it. Habbard is slightly better than Damon.
 
Yeah I'm totally passing on that Aldo fight. I don't get it. Love Aldo, but when you have an aging guy past his prime who's only fought once in 2 years, against an opponent who's pretty good, I see no reason to be confident.

I'll sprinkle some on Rountree though. Not confident, but why not, power is power with those odds.

Not loving this card for betting overall. Best I got is Almeida in 1 or 2 for evens. Potieria is easy fade material and he can't hang with a legit kickboxer.
 
Stat_Collector said:
The common theme here is old vs youth

It’s either i eat crow for betting against a legend or for ignoring basic stats that 40 year olds lose more.

for props i need a big leap maybe i can get decent high odds finishes, i’m predicting a majority of these fights will end in decision.

I want some kos and subs but so many fighters in this card are solid durable and decent sub defense.

And the kos and subs that are obvious, are super juiced.

I would need to take a leap on some of these props:

Cesar/Ihor fgtd or Cesar dec 825+

Osp/Spann over 240+

Perreira ko 2-3

Buckley and Holland ko prop is around 400+ but their counter parts are durable.

Id have to really consider spamming dec multiple times and hope for a boring card.

I feel strongly the females have better spots than the boys. but i hate wmma.

You have any decent props?
Click to expand...
No props I truly like, though I haven't looked at Kayla's itd. I did play u2.5 at +120 and feel good about it, so if her itd line is anywhere close to that I'd poke it.

Aldo KO/TKO at +550 I also played small, that's mostly because Mario got stopped by Trevin Jones (4 finished with strikes ever counting the Timur fight) and his path to victory would leave openings for Aldo to land something big, but I am just expecting Jose to get a decision win.

A friend played Dolidze sub at +1500, which is crazy odds, but Roman hasn't scored a sub since his first three pro fights despite being a good grappler.
 
I do think Hubbard is complete shit and a winnable fight for 155 Hernandez, don't see why Alex couldn't do what he did to Miller here. Austin got lucky in his last one and before it he got subbed by Kurt, which was not a good sign.

To me it looks like they're trying to keep Alex for a bit longer, and historically he's always been better at 155 than 145.
 
Thesnake101 said:
No props I truly like, though I haven't looked at Kayla's itd. I did play u2.5 at +120 and feel good about it, so if her itd line is anywhere close to that I'd poke it.

Aldo KO/TKO at +550 I also played small, that's mostly because Mario got stopped by Trevin Jones (4 finished with strikes ever counting the Timur fight) and his path to victory would leave openings for Aldo to land something big, but I am just expecting Jose to get a decision win.

A friend played Dolidze sub at +1500, which is crazy odds, but Roman hasn't scored a sub since his first three pro fights despite being a good grappler.
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Crazy at sounds i actually fancy Holland there, Dolidze had his arm in Imavov’s armbar. And Holland does well submitting guys that shoot like Chiesa.That was after a big knee in the clinch. Id like to think Roman would do the same because his default setting is to shoot as a wrestler does when they go to panic mode. Holland has more finishes too, Roman got dropped in round 1 by Imavov, but does that warrant a play? its me battling between footage and record capping.


I did flirt with the idea of a aldo ko, Bautista took that fight on short notice, idk how much better he is now, maybe i need to rewatch his last fight.

i’ll prolly tail the Kayla submission.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Crazy at sounds i actually fancy Holland there, Dolidze had his arm in Imavov’s armbar. And Holland does well submitting guys that shoot like Chiesa.That was after a big knee in the clinch. Id like to think Roman would do the same because his default setting is to shoot as a wrestler does when they go to panic mode. Holland has more finishes too, Roman got dropped in round 1 by Imavov, but does that warrant a play? its me battling between footage and record capping.
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Biggest issue Holland faces here is size. We know he doesn't cut to make 185, has been stalled before (once vs a chinny old guy in Brunson) and his output can go out the window at any point. Roman for his part is a former LHW, think he even fought at HW in the regional circuit, and is not above turning fights into a grind if it means getting a win.

I think the fight goes the distance, and might be contested mostly in the clinch with Dolidze in control of Holland there.

I don't know if I'd use the Chiesa fight as a good example, Mike has like 5 or 6 submission losses, most of them via D'arce I think, and doesn't seem all that invested in being a fighter anymore.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Rountree is mid. He needs a lucky homerun shot to win it, there is levels to this. He loss to guys that Alex would never lose to. He has no major upside.

Pennington, her whole fighting style
is cagestalling, and a paper champ. why Pena is a dog when she beat Nunes makes no sense.

Holland only seems playable if i can get a ko out of him, he’s a known flake.

Buckley is on a streak but it’s not a streak Thompson could not do. You’re praying Wonderboy is washed here.

Osp is still washed, Spann is a better more explosive version of Kennedy . Osp only hope is a leg kick decision win.

Bautista could best Aldo, but that Aldo that beat Martinez shows up, he can take him. Id favor Martinez over Bautista.

Hernandez got out struck by Damon, he may very well be past it. Habbard is slightly better than Damon.
Click to expand...
Khalil is 3-0 against Glory kickboxers. He beat Jacoby on damage and destroyed Saki with only 4 years of pro experience. This was before he moved to Bankgok and made improvements.

He’s the younger and fresher fighter. Alex turned 37 this year and reflexes is the first thing to go with aging strikers. Grapple-heavy fighters like Glover can achieve success at a later age.

Khalil is the most dangerous striker Pereira has faced in his MMA career. Adesanya is fundamentally better but Khalil is way more dangerous. He’s the most savage fighter in UFC because he fights like you owe him money. Khalil’s striking is better suited for MMA. Pereira started training at a late age like Benoit St Denis which is why his fundamentals are sloppy. He relies a lot on his power and size.

Styles make fights and Pereira was matched accordingly by matchmakers. Khalil had to learn on the job and pay his dues. He has way more experienced in MMA and UFC.

Hill was a small underdog even with the layoff and achilles injury. That’s because Pereira’s striking has flaws that Hill could’ve exploited. Jiri also was a small underdog despite already losing to Pereira and getting whooped by Rakic in the 1st round. Even with his horrible head/leg defense, people still thought Jiri could exploit Pereira. The oddsmakers didn’t see anything special in Pereira’s striking ability to make him such a big favorite.

Khalil is not scared of Pereira like Jiri, Hill, and Jan. He asked for this fight last year. He has nothing to lose and everything to gain. The pressure is all on Poatan. He said in the interview with Olivi that he’s in a great place mentally. The PED suspension only motivated him to win the title to clear up any dirt on his name. He also told Olivi that he was drilling a secret move that he told Rogan about. Think Aldo-McGregor, Jiri-Poatan 2, Askren-Maia, Usman-Edwards II. They all drilled a secret move before the fight. Rogan also invited him to his podcast after the Anders fight. Rogan doesn’t invite prelim fighters to his podcast unless they are a special talent.

Rountree told Olivi that he made a promise to his coach years ago that he would become a UFC champion. Nobody expected Rountree to ever be a title challenger. So maybe his destiny is written in the stars.

He told Olivi that he lost to Walker because he didn’t know Muay Thai at the time and wasn’t comfortable in the clinch. He lost to Prachnio because he was depressed and barely trained. All his other losses are to grapplers. He has never been KO’d with punches which is Pereira’s biggest weapon: the left hook.

UFC wants Khalil to win because it legitimatizes TUF. They did something similar with Forrest. This is why they gave him a title shot over Ankalaev who has a 10 fight win streak (not counting NC and draw). Ankalaev has Dagestani privilege which gets him special favors from the UFC. They instead rewarded the title shot to a fighter who failed a drug test and pulled out of a N1 contender matchup. The UFC wants an English speaking champion who can promote and sell fights. Pereira became a star because of Adesanya, not because of his personality.
 
Georges Hefner said:
Khalil is 3-0 against Glory kickboxers. He beat Jacoby on damage and destroyed Saki with only 4 years of pro experience. This was before he moved to Bankgok and made improvements.

He’s the younger and fresher fighter. Alex turned 37 this year and reflexes is the first thing to go with aging strikers. Grapple-heavy fighters like Glover can achieve success at a later age.

Khalil is the most dangerous striker Pereira has faced in his MMA career. Adesanya is fundamentally better but Khalil is way more dangerous. He’s the most savage fighter in UFC because he fights like you owe him money. Khalil’s striking is better suited for MMA. Pereira started training at a late age like Benoit St Denis which is why his fundamentals are sloppy. He relies a lot on his power and size.

Styles make fights and Pereira was matched accordingly by matchmakers. Khalil had to learn on the job and pay his dues. He has way more experienced in MMA and UFC.

Hill was a small underdog even with the layoff and achilles injury. That’s because Pereira’s striking has flaws that Hill could’ve exploited. Jiri also was a small underdog despite already losing to Pereira and getting whooped by Rakic in the 1st round. Even with his horrible head/leg defense, people still thought Jiri could exploit Pereira. The oddsmakers didn’t see anything special in Pereira’s striking ability to make him such a big favorite.

Khalil is not scared of Pereira like Jiri, Hill, and Jan. He asked for this fight last year. He has nothing to lose and everything to gain. The pressure is all on Poatan. He said in the interview with Olivi that he’s in a great place mentally. The PED suspension only motivated him to win the title to clear up any dirt on his name. He also told Olivi that he was drilling a secret move that he told Rogan about. Think Aldo-McGregor, Jiri-Poatan 2, Askren-Maia, Usman-Edwards II. They all drilled a secret move before the fight. Rogan also invited him to his podcast after the Anders fight. Rogan doesn’t invite prelim fighters to his podcast unless they are a special talent.

Rountree told Olivi that he made a promise to his coach years ago that he would become a UFC champion. Nobody expected Rountree to ever be a title challenger. So maybe his destiny is written in the stars.

He told Olivi that he lost to Walker because he didn’t know Muay Thai at the time and wasn’t comfortable in the clinch. He lost to Prachnio because he was depressed and barely trained. All his other losses are to grapplers. He has never been KO’d with punches which is Pereira’s biggest weapon: the left hook.

UFC wants Khalil to win because it legitimatizes TUF. They did something similar with Forrest. This is why they gave him a title shot over Ankalaev who has a 10 fight win streak (not counting NC and draw). Ankalaev has Dagestani privilege which gets him special favors from the UFC. They instead rewarded the title shot to a fighter who failed a drug test and pulled out of a N1 contender matchup. The UFC wants an English speaking champion who can promote and sell fights. Pereira became a star because of Adesanya, not because of his personality.
Click to expand...
He went to split with Jacoby and it was a bit of a robbery the striking stats were 120/80. None of those guys would beat Alex.

Alex has fought far more dangerous fighters in Glory. Khalil doesn't have good chained combinations, he throws a lot of two set combos. he could not even ko a chinny Prachnio.

His last ko was Smith who has 10 ko losses, and Daukus who'd been koed 3x before that. His power is very average, I rate it around Solid but not super lethal enough.

A large part of what allowed Izzy to ko Alex is that he had fought him many times, and picked out a tendency and capitalized. Khalil has no experience fighting Alex.

You are making the mistake in thinking life is like a Rocky movie, that the underdog with his serious demeanor is going to pull through. But that is not real life, Alex is a just a superior athlete. Khalil use to be a fat kid. That fat kid energy and laziness will come out , a lot of former fat people carry this energy throughout their life, they just never get past a certain point when it comes to work ethic, and even as shredded as he looks, I bet he has cheat meals.

Conventional wisdom favors the former kickboxing champ over the mma kickboxer, he has a lucky shot nothing else. If you watch Alex spar with top hw boxers you would know he is not easy to ko.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Biggest issue Holland faces here is size. We know he doesn't cut to make 185, has been stalled before (once vs a chinny old guy in Brunson) and his output can go out the window at any point. Roman for his part is a former LHW, think he even fought at HW in the regional circuit, and is not above turning fights into a grind if it means getting a win.

I think the fight goes the distance, and might be contested mostly in the clinch with Dolidze in control of Holland there.

I don't know if I'd use the Chiesa fight as a good example, Mike has like 5 or 6 submission losses, most of them via D'arce I think, and doesn't seem all that invested in being a fighter anymore.
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The only reason i fade Roman is the knockdown by Imavov, who has never kd anyone in the ufc, Roman has some defensive boxing holes i don't like.

but you brought up good reasons to fade Holland.
 
Stat_Collector said:
The only reason i fade Roman is the knockdown by Imavov, who has never kd anyone in the ufc, Roman has some defensive boxing holes i don't like.

but you brought up good reasons to fade Holland.
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It's a dog or pass type fight for me, and at the very least I think Roman is the type of guy you can count on to do anything to try and gut out a win, while Holland is more focused on showmanship.

Tbh I hope we get something good to open the card at least. It's actually gonna be the first time I prep some food and snacks for the fights in a long time, so if the main card starts with a dud I'll be a bit pissed even if it means winning my Dolidze bet, lol.
 
Thesnake101 said:
It's a dog or pass type fight for me, and at the very least I think Roman is the type of guy you can count on to do anything to try and gut out a win, while Holland is more focused on showmanship.

Tbh I hope we get something good to open the card at least. It's actually gonna be the first time I prep some food and snacks for the fights in a long time, so if the main card starts with a dud I'll be a bit pissed even if it means winning my Dolidze bet, lol.
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Sadly i'm predicting a high decision snooze in a lot of these.

There are also 4 wmma matches. all likely to hit the scorecards.
 
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