UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier

[Georges Hefner]

UFC 302 results

Poirier def. Makhachev via TKO (punches)
Costa def. Strickland via TKO (head kick)
Holland def. Oleiakczcjuk via SUB (choke)
Romanov def. Almeida via TKO (bitch slaps)
Brown def. Elizeu via DEC (unanimous)

Preliminary card (ESPN 2/ESPN +)
Almeida def. Kopylov via TKO (calf kicks)
Dawson def. Solecki via DEC (unanimous)
Matthews def. Rowe via DEC (split)
Price def. Morono via DEC (split)

Early preliminary card (UFC Fight Pass)
Gall def. Hafez via SUB (choke)
Perez def. Edwards via IDGAF (who cares)
Lima def. Raposo via IDGAF (who cares)

 

[Stat_Collector]

Sure Ivy is a bum and he was getting treated like one getting dropped multiple times in round 1 and 2. Im not sure how that was a split honestly. He is on a 5 fight win streak now and was in the UFC, that seems to be your basis for Gall having a higher level of competition even though all his UFC wins are cut.

The Wells fight was in 2018, and so was Hafez his dec loss to a "1-0 guy who disappeared after". Fights in 2018 either matter or they don't. Pick one.

Williams is chinny at WW. Gall hit his path there, and that's always his path to drop someone and get a RNC. Same here although Hafez has insane durability, unlike Gal. I give
Hafez all the finishing upside.

I do agree he gets sloppy late in the fights, which shouldn't be an issue since Galls worst round is also round 3. To the point guys he should be better than in jits are mauling him on the ground ( Brown, Perry, washed Diego Sanchez )

Anyway, I'm not advocating parlaying Hafez. The way we two break down fights always leads to disagreement. I don't think Gall will ever get my money in a UFC
fight. He is one of the worst to ever do it and its a miracle he is still employed. Should be losing fights in Fury FC.

I would tackle some unders here, it covers Galls path and Hafez finish. Potentially live bet once Gall gases.

Ivy secured a lot of ctrl time and got his back , even landed clean shots on him. Ivy would never have given Gall that tough a fight.

I feel the same way about the Jdm fight. That wasn't a split decision either, other than ctrl time, Jdm treated him like a human punching bag, the ss was 82/32 and the total strikes 149/48.

With margins that wide why should Hazef gotten a single scorecard under the new rules where ctrl with no damage doesn't win fights?

If 3 judges had given Jack a ud as they should, this fight odds would be far closer.

My point about wells is that he was 1 dimensional then, it's was a fight between two grapplers. It was evident in his loss after that he was beatable by even a debut fighter.

While Hafez is durable, it doesn't mean he can't be stopped or get a standing tko stoppage, he has a habit of swinging for the fences and biting down and absorbing damage, leaving himself open if he gets tagged enough and doesn't fight back.

I don't have that view on Gall just like Hollan. I played Gall against Williams, because that was a style he can beat. I think it's a stretch to say he was the worst to do it. He can hold some points for some decision losses with top ranked guys at least in the top 30-16 range.

It's also note worthy to know that Hazef landed 3-20 takedown and jack scored 1 in round 3, so it wasn't like the guy put on a grappling clinic.

I only played the Ml on Mick with like 4 favorites, i don't know about the unders, cause i see Hazef as a type to win by finish majority in his early career. The 1 ko he has on cutter, who got ko by Yohan lainese , that ko rating is up for debate.

 

[StewDogg11]

I know people are going to call me crazy but Costa decision at 12.00 I think is insane value so I've cut a slice of it. Also like Strickland decision at 3.15 (only way I think he can actually win) and Costa DNB at 2.25. Bookies seem to be really overestimating Sean's finishing ability against an absolute tank in PC

With it being 5 Rounds I could totally see Strickland winning by TKO (Doctor Stoppage) by simply jabbing his face off. Especially since Costa tends to gas if he actually makes weight. His cardio looked pretty great against Vettori when he blew off his weight cut especially with the amount of body kicks he ate.

 

[StewDogg11]

Do you live far from Nevada?

You should come out to the next meetup in Las Vegas. I've met up with multiple Sherdoggers in Vegas over the years.

Nope I sure don’t and I have a 8 month old. I appreciate the invite though!!!

 

['Suga Daddy']

With it being 5 Rounds I could totally see Strickland winning by TKO (Doctor Stoppage) by simply jabbing his face off. Especially since Costa tends to gas if he actually makes weight. His cardio looked pretty great against Vettori when he blew off his weight cut especially with the amount of body kicks he ate.

I think thats definitely a possibility but I find it weird that a TKO is favoured over decision for Mr Pitter Patter

 

[mkess101]

Cesar now the favorite over Kopylov. Who ever could've seen that coming?

**Raises hand**

Like I said to Stat Collector, this is EXACTLY the type opponent you'd give a striking specialist from K-1 to build him up. A solid guy that prefers to strike but doesn't have the pedigree or skills standing that the "new" guy does. I put "new" in quotes because Almeida is 35 so while he is new to the UFC, they will need to fast track him to make him relevant quickly if they're gonna get any juice out of him. Kopylov is a legit opponent that Almeida can (should imo) beat and maybe look impressive doing it. Then he gets a ranked guy later this year and they try to put him on the same path as Poatan.

 

[mkess101]

For anyone who plays DFS--Prizepicks and Underdog both have Hafez TD's at 1.5. Both @PuertoRican and I love the over. IMO it has more value than anything the books are offering on this week's "Sherdog Main Event". Gall hasn't been taken down a ton necessarily in his career (fought a lot of strikers that wanted to stand) but the guys who've tried have gotten him down. And Hafez isn't scared of Gall on the mat at all, he's talking about their previous grappling match from year ago and seems to want to grapple. And he's relentless when he goes for TD's even if not technically amazing.

 

[Thesnake101]

Cesar now the favorite over Kopylov. Who ever could've seen that coming?

**Raises hand**

Like I said to Stat Collector, this is EXACTLY the type opponent you'd give a striking specialist from K-1 to build him up. A solid guy that prefers to strike but doesn't have the pedigree or skills standing that the "new" guy does. I put "new" in quotes because Almeida is 35 so while he is new to the UFC, they will need to fast track him to make him relevant quickly if they're gonna get any juice out of him. Kopylov is a legit opponent that Almeida can (should imo) beat and maybe look impressive doing it. Then he gets a ranked guy later this year and they try to put him on the same path as Poatan.

As someone who once took Rountree against Saki, it is my duty to take Kopylov at dog odds now.

Cesar should be the favorite given the style matchup (unless Kopy puts on his wrestling shoes), but facing a guy with 11 stoppages in 12 wins can always spell disaster in MMA. I know he's never been KO'd, but he's getting to that age where durability starts to crack, and this is the best fighter he's fought so far in MMA by far.

Fight read to me as dog or pass, so if any on you got Almeida at his early odds then you did good.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Placed 0.5U on Mitch Raposo to win over André Lima @+215.

I just think the odds are too wide. I think this fight will play out much closer than the odds suggests. I watched Raposos 2 last fight and while one of the fights was over very quick the other was a long stand-up affair against a what looked to be descent guy (Justin Valentin). I thought his striking looked much improved, fast and measured. I do favour Lima in the stand-up, but I don't think Raposo needs to treat the stand-up as lava. I also wasn't to impressed with Lima's takedown defence in his last fight and Raposo is a descent wrestler, so he should be able to mix in some takedowns.
I think Raposo can make this one close, at solid dog odds I'll take a small shot at him.

 

[mkess101]

As someone who once took Rountree against Saki, it is my duty to take Kopylov at dog odds now.

Cesar should be the favorite given the style matchup (unless Kopy puts on his wrestling shoes), but facing a guy with 11 stoppages in 12 wins can always spell disaster in MMA. I know he's never been KO'd, but he's getting to that age where durability starts to crack, and this is the best fighter he's fought so far in MMA by far.

Fight read to me as dog or pass, so if any on you got Almeida at his early odds then you did good.

I didn't bet him, should have. But based on the stylistic matchup and skillset I've seen I think Cesar has value up to maybe -140ish.

The guys that Roman has finished imo are all levels upon levels below Almeida in terms of striking. I'd be way more hesitant had I seen anything grappling-wise out of Kopylov that would make me think he can/will go that route. But he folded like a tent under the first grappling pressure that Fluffy put on him. Seems like his gas tank maybe isn't up for a grappling-heavy gameplan even putting his lack of ability aside.

Based on variance and Cesar's lack of MMA experience I wouldn't make a big play on him but I do think he wins here.

 

[Spath]

Do you guys find value in ”Trailblazer” Holland via finish at 1.91 (or -110 american)? Holland has finished much tougher opponents and badly needs to get back on winning ways since dropping 2 in a row.

Holland has the reach advantage, grappling advantage, the experience and cardio advantage…

Oleksiejczuk (did I get that right? I’m not googling that) is a threat standing, but tends to gas out and either wins or loses via finish. His grappling is lacking, too.

 

[sonhow]

I was going to pass Kopylov vs Almeida since I had no intention to dig deep on Almeida's kickboxing background but the fact that Kop went to dog kinda peaked my interest in this one. So I taped Almeida's debut and his contender series fights. First thing that jumped out to me was that both of his opponents came in with very wrestling heavy gameplans and both failed miserably. Budka was so bent on getting Almeida to floor that he ran out of gas in 6 minutes and became easy prey for the decorated kickboxer to tee off on. This after his previous fight in which he showcase impressive grappling defense as well and had the guy gasping for air in the second round of their fight. But these fights dont tell lot of his chances against Kopylov who I'm actually pretty high on. I expect the first high profile pure stand up fight from the Brazillian under mma rules.

So did I learn something I wanted from these two fights? Well not really as far as this fight goes. But Kopylov has fought better competition and I think he really improved his game after losing badly to Duraev three years ago. I'm taking the veteran as the dog. If Almeida soundly beats Kopylov look for the man to go on a long run at the top of the div.

 

[Kwiatkowski18]

The problem with betting Holland is that mentally, you don't know who you're getting on fight day. The guy hasn't taken his career seriously and likes to clown.

 

[Thesnake101]

The problem with betting Holland is that mentally, you don't know who you're getting on fight day. The guy hasn't taken his career seriously and likes to clown.

Only strikers that have beaten him recently are MVP, Wonderboy and JDM tho. Michal is a softball for his return to MW, and Kevin only having been finished once by strikes also helps him here.

 

[mkess101]

Do you guys find value in ”Trailblazer” Holland via finish at 1.91 (or -110 american)? Holland has finished much tougher opponents and badly needs to get back on winning ways since dropping 2 in a row.

Holland has the reach advantage, grappling advantage, the experience and cardio advantage…

Oleksiejczuk (did I get that right? I’m not googling that) is a threat standing, but tends to gas out and either wins or loses via finish. His grappling is lacking, too.

I'd rather play Holland itd than his ML probably. He tends to either look dominant, or flake out and lose. (A few exceptions but this is how I tend to view him).

 

[mkess101]

I was going to pass Kopylov vs Almeida since I had no intention to dig deep on Almeida's kickboxing background but the fact that Kop went to dog kinda peaked my interest in this one. So I taped Almeida's debut and his contender series fights. First thing that jumped out to me was that both of his opponents came in with very wrestling heavy gameplans and both failed miserably. Budka was so bent on getting Almeida to floor that he ran out of gas in 6 minutes and became easy prey for the decorated kickboxer to tee off on. This after his previous fight in which he showcase impressive grappling defense as well and had the guy gasping for air in the second round of their fight. But these fights dont tell lot of his chances against Kopylov who I'm actually pretty high on. I expect the first high profile pure stand up fight from the Brazillian under mma rules.

So did I learn something I wanted from these two fights? Well not really as far as this fight goes. But Kopylov has fought better competition and I think he really improved his game after losing badly to Duraev three years ago. I'm taking the veteran as the dog. If Almeida soundly beats Kopylov look for the man to go on a long run at the top of the div.

That's kind of a weird take to me. What in Kopylov's striking looks as good as Almeida's? Nothing I could find on tape. If like you said we're working under the assumption this is gonna essentially be a kickboxing fight with MMA gloves...Cesar is just the way better kickboxer. Of course that doesn't mean Roman can't win. He's solid and has shown the ability to finish. But not against strikers anywhere near Almeida's level.

And I kinda disagree that this is some sort of litmus test for Almeida too. Like, if he blasts Kopylov in a striking based fight, that doesn't translate to him beating someone like Fluffy Hernandez for example. Budka ain't Fluffy because Hernandez doesn't gas even when pushing a grueling grappling pace. Beating someone like him would be when I start thinking Almeida could make a real run. That's not to shit on Kopylov, because he's solid. It's just not a win that vaults Almeida into title contender imo.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Cesar now the favorite over Kopylov. Who ever could've seen that coming?

**Raises hand**

Like I said to Stat Collector, this is EXACTLY the type opponent you'd give a striking specialist from K-1 to build him up. A solid guy that prefers to strike but doesn't have the pedigree or skills standing that the "new" guy does. I put "new" in quotes because Almeida is 35 so while he is new to the UFC, they will need to fast track him to make him relevant quickly if they're gonna get any juice out of him. Kopylov is a legit opponent that Almeida can (should imo) beat and maybe look impressive doing it. Then he gets a ranked guy later this year and they try to put him on the same path as Poatan.

Id rather just cover both with the over 2.5, both guys are durable.

Kopylov is a mystery to me, you never really know. Remember Bruno gave Alex a tough fight too, so did Jan.

You can't always buy into world level in one sports translates to another. Like Fluffy tapping a bjj guy, or Mirko getting koed by Randleman on the feet. This sport of mma is a wicked and unpredictable one.

 

[mkess101]

Id rather just cover both with the over 2.5, both guys are durable.

Kopylov is a mystery to me, you never really know. Remember Bruno gave Alex a tough fight too, so did Jan.

You can't always buy into world level in one sports translates to another. Like Fluffy tapping a bjj guy, or Mirko getting koed by Randleman on the feet. This sport of mma is a wicked and unpredictable one.

Oh of course there's no sure things. Fluffy tapping Viera was mostly (all) about Viera gassing horribly but your point is still valid. A better example would be Rothwell subbing Josh Barnett. Weird shit happens, I totally agree.

That said, while I slightly lean to the over too I'm not convinced one of these two doesn't land something big (more likely Almeida imo) and hurt the other. I don't think there's a "safe" bet here. Just, is there value? IMO there is on Almeida.

 

[sonhow]

That's kind of a weird take to me. What in Kopylov's striking looks as good as Almeida's? Nothing I could find on tape. If like you said we're working under the assumption this is gonna essentially be a kickboxing fight with MMA gloves...Cesar is just the way better kickboxer. Of course that doesn't mean Roman can't win. He's solid and has shown the ability to finish. But not against strikers anywhere near Almeida's level.

And I kinda disagree that this is some sort of litmus test for Almeida too. Like, if he blasts Kopylov in a striking based fight, that doesn't translate to him beating someone like Fluffy Hernandez for example. Budka ain't Fluffy because Hernandez doesn't gas even when pushing a grueling grappling pace. Beating someone like him would be when I start thinking Almeida could make a real run. That's not to shit on Kopylov, because he's solid. It's just not a win that vaults Almeida into title contender imo.

Im super high on Kopylov. Like if the guy beat Costa or Strickland I might not be that surprised. He flows. He's dynamic. I thought he looked great even in loss against Hernandes. Where as based on the mma fights nothing quite jumped out to me in the two fights I saw from Almeida. Aside from his anti-wrestling which was on point for a guy whose had less than 6 fights. But he didnt really get to show of that striking because mostly he was just anti-wrestling the whole fights. And all of great striking isn't just flashy stuff I get it. Someone might be an excellent striker by basically perfecting the basic stuff. But I do not know if that is Almeida as I basically know next to nothing about his kickboxing career. Im basing all I have on him in those two fights that I watched. And in those fights it was his ability to get up and counter the grapplling that stood out for me.

Basically the only reason for me to bet on this fight is because I know Kopylov and I know that hes fighting a striker. I think hed murder Roberson and Duraev if those fights were made now. If I'm wrong so be it. But I'm not going ham on this fight lol.

And by on top I mean top 15 as mw doesnt have too many excellent wrestlers on top. Aside from Fluffy that is.

 

[mkess101]

Im super high on Kopylov. Like if the guy beat Costa or Strickland I might not be that surprised. He flows. He's dynamic. I thought he looked great even in loss against Hernandes. Where as based on the mma fights nothing quite jumped out to me in the two fights I saw from Almeida. Aside from his anti-wrestling which was on point for a guy whose had less than 6 fights. But he didnt really get to show of that striking because mostly he was just anti-wrestling the whole fights. And all of great striking isn't just flashy stuff I get it. Someone might be an excellent striker by basically perfecting the basic stuff. But I do not know if that is Almeida as I basically know next to nothing about his kickboxing career. Im basing all I have on him in those two fights that I watched. And in those fights it was his ability to get up and counter the grapplling that stood out for me.

Basically the only reason for me to bet on this fight is because I know Kopylov and I know that hes fighting a striker. I think hed murder Roberson and Duraev if those fights were made now. If I'm wrong so be it. But I'm not going ham on this fight lol.

And by on top I mean top 15 as mw doesnt have too many excellent wrestlers on top. Aside from Fluffy that is.

Yeah maybe Vettori we'd call a very capable MW wrestler too?

Anyway, Kopylov is a good striker but I think at least some of why he's looked really good at times is because of who he's striking against. Almeida has beaten some of the best kickboxers in the world. Because he is one. MMA is different, maybe that matters here in a way I'm not thinking of but I think we see the difference in levels here between a good striker and an elite one.