UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier

[PuertoRican]

Main Card (ESPN+)​
Lightweight	Islam Makhachev	vs.	Dustin Poirier
Middleweight	Sean Strickland	vs.	Paulo Costa
Middleweight	Kevin Holland	vs.	Michal Oleksiejczuk
Heavyweight	Jailton Almeida	vs.	Alexander Romanov
Welterweight	Randy Brown	vs.	Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Preliminary Card (ESPN 2/ ESPN+)​
Middleweight	Cesar Almeida	vs.	Roman Kopylov
Lightweight	Grant Dawson	vs.	Joe Solecki
Welterweight	Philip Rowe	vs.	Jake Matthews
Welterweight	Niko Price	vs.	Alex Morono
Early Preliminary Card (ESPN+ / UFC Fight Pass)​
Welterweight	Mickey Gall	vs.	Bassil Hafez
Women's Bantamweight	Ailin Perez	vs.	Joselyne Edwards
Flyweight	Mitch Raposo	vs.	Andre Lima

• Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa is 5 rounds.
• A heavyweight bout between Alexander Volkov and Jailton Almeida was expected to take place at this event. However, the bout was scrapped for unknown reasons and Volkov was booked for UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Chimaev against Sergei Pavlovich. Alexander Romanov stepped in on short notice on April 9.
• Jeremiah Wells was expected to face Niko Price. However, Wells pulled out due to undisclosed reasons and was replaced by Alex Morono on April 18.
• Road to UFC Season 2 flyweight winner Park Hyun-sung was expected to face Andre Lima. However, he pulled out due to a knee injury and was replaced by promotional newcomer Nyamjargal Tumendemberel on May 1. Tumendemberel was then forced to withdraw from the event due to visa issues and he was replaced by Mitch Raposo on May 21.

 

[Stat_Collector]

guys i perceive to be safe.

Morono , Dawson, Holland, Strickland , Islam.

But one of them will likely drop the ball.

 

[mkess101]

guys i perceive to be safe.

Morono , Dawson, Holland, Strickland , Islam.

But one of them will likely drop the ball.

I don't see how anyone can trust Kevin Holland anymore. Even in what on the surface seems like a favorable matchup. His mentality about what he's doing in there has to be questioned at this point, right? He's unfathomably inactive for long stretches in his fights. He seems to care little about the direction his fights are going too often, and shows no sense of urgency. He looks good when he's the hammer and doesn't need to make any adjustments. But if anything ever goes sideways in his fights, his default is to become LESS aggressive and to make sure he doesn't get finished. Did it vs MVP, did it to a lesser degree (but still did it) vs JDM.

Gun to my head I'd pick Holland to beat Michal here but paying -200 juice on a guy with Holland's mentality vs anyone halfway decent...nope.

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[Thesnake101]

I don't see how anyone can trust Kevin Holland anymore. Even in what on the surface seems like a favorable matchup. His mentality about what he's doing in there has to be questioned at this point, right? He's unfathomably inactive for long stretches in his fights. He seems to care little about the direction his fights are going too often, and shows no sense of urgency. He looks good when he's the hammer and doesn't need to make any adjustments. But if anything ever goes sideways in his fights, his default is to become LESS aggressive and to make sure he doesn't get finished. Did it vs MVP, did it to a lesser degree (but still did it) vs JDM.

Gun to my head I'd pick Holland to beat Michal here but paying -200 juice on a guy with Holland's mentality vs anyone halfway decent...nope.

Only thing I'd be interested in that fight is Holland's sub line. Michal is garbage at defending subs.

 

[sonhow]

View attachment 1044364

Bound to happen sooner or later.
Will Dustin be the one? No I dont think so.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I don't see how anyone can trust Kevin Holland anymore. Even in what on the surface seems like a favorable matchup. His mentality about what he's doing in there has to be questioned at this point, right? He's unfathomably inactive for long stretches in his fights. He seems to care little about the direction his fights are going too often, and shows no sense of urgency. He looks good when he's the hammer and doesn't need to make any adjustments. But if anything ever goes sideways in his fights, his default is to become LESS aggressive and to make sure he doesn't get finished. Did it vs MVP, did it to a lesser degree (but still did it) vs JDM.

Gun to my head I'd pick Holland to beat Michal here but paying -200 juice on a guy with Holland's mentality vs anyone halfway decent...nope.

the guys who have beaten Holland are the cream of the crop , all ranked top 15 at the time. And some people thought he won against Jack. He out landed him by 27+ ss . Holland also has credit for main event 5 round fights with Marvin and Brunson that hit the scorecards. I thought he tried harder against mvp, he tried to wrestle him but fell short, him being inactive had more to do with Mvp being hard to hit , which Michal isn't as elusive as.. I think he learned from his mistake with Wonder boy and tried to play to his strength to get the win. We saw the opposite with JDM juxto posed with MVP, that had more to do with style than activity.


Can the same be said with Michal? he's been beaten in round 1 3x and once in round 2 to lesser ranked fighters.

And the sub threat is there, Holland has that darce choke. Plus i have a hard time believing that Michel Perreira would have walked Kevin down like he did Michal. Michal looked like a little kid that was bullied and beat down. It was one of the most dominating performances i've ever seen that didn't result in a quick flash ko.


The other guy i think can fail is maybe Alex Morono if he doesn't carry the power to get Nico out early, it could turn into a close kickboxing match.

Only thing I'd be interested in that fight is Holland's sub line. Michal is garbage at defending subs.

This. -200 for a parlay maybe. but i've been doing those less lately. under 1.5 at plus odds i can see myself playing.

 

[StewDogg11]

guys i perceive to be safe.

Morono , Dawson, Holland, Strickland , Islam.

But one of them will likely drop the ball.

I don’t see how Dawson loses. It’s a grappler vs. grappler matchup and Dawson is the better grappler. Solecki doesn’t have the striking to take advantage of Dawson’s deficiencies there.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I don’t see how Dawson loses. It’s a grappler vs. grappler matchup and Dawson is the better grappler. Solecki doesn’t have the striking to take advantage of Dawson’s deficiencies there.

no argument here. i just say perceive because there is always one favorite who chokes and fumbles the parlay.

 

[Kowboy On Sherdog]

Islam by Submission

 

[Jinx_AA]

First glance odds that are tempting me :

like dos santos as a dog vs brown

His takedown defense is awesome - and I think his chin will Be better in a stand up fight … I gotta do more tape first though before I pull the trigger

Strickland and Costa won’t happen - we already know Costa won’t show up

Basil should beat mickey gall handily

And I’m tempted to pick Phil Rowe as a dog vs Jake Mathew’s … I gotta look onto his takedown defense better - but at dog odds he’s tempting me

Islam to finish - we’ll see what that prop
Comes out at

Not a great card to be honest … once Costa/strickland gets pulled itll
Be even worse

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Wtf June 1st? I guess that concludes May for me. I lost $1500 on MMA. $350 on table tennis. And $700 on soccer. Around $2500 total gambling losses. The haters can laugh but remember I never had to work for this money. This is just half of the allowance I get from my parents. I was born with a silver spoon in my mouth. Everything was handed to me at a young age. Get a good laugh peasants, but remember u have to wake up early for work tomorrow & I don't. Im a privileged spoiled brat with no responsibilities. I don’t contribute to society and never will.

This has absolutely nothing to do with UFC302.

Keep your posts on topic, about betting related to UFC302, not messages about yourself.

 

[Georges Hefner]

This has absolutely nothing to do with UFC302.

Keep your posts on topic, about betting related to UFC302, not messages about yourself.

It is about UFC 302. I thought it was next week not in June

 

[StewDogg11]

It is about UFC 302. I thought it was next week not in June

You think for a guy with no responsibilities you’d be more in tune with the dates on which you’re going to be pissing away daddy’s money lmao.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Poirier (+370)
•25% bets vs 53% handle
(only quarter of bets on Poirier but more than half the money is wagered on him)

Kopylov (-135)
•72% of bets vs 83% handle
(this fighter has fade potential since he opened -163. still early to decide)

Reverse line movement rule *UPDATED*

Works better for odds -200 and up as those are considered parlay busters. Brahimaj opponent was in -140 range and closed -122. The public doesn’t parlay fighters in those odds. But the most important data is knowing the handle, which is the amount wagered. Public splits can be deceitful without knowing the handle. This is very important because bookies purposely disclose this info. You have to find it in third party websites like VSIN which isn’t free. I paid for this data today. VSIN gets their reports from DraftKings. Although sharps only use offshore bookies, DK copies their line movement so the numbers are fairly accurate. I incorrectly read Gorimbo’s line due to not knowing the handle. If anyone wants to know the handle for any particular fight, let me know, I will give it for free.

 

[mkess101]

the guys who have beaten Holland are the cream of the crop , all ranked top 15 at the time. And some people thought he won against Jack. He out landed him by 27+ ss . Holland also has credit for main event 5 round fights with Marvin and Brunson that hit the scorecards. I thought he tried harder against mvp, he tried to wrestle him but fell short, him being inactive had more to do with Mvp being hard to hit , which Michal isn't as elusive as.. I think he learned from his mistake with Wonder boy and tried to play to his strength to get the win. We saw the opposite with JDM juxto posed with MVP, that had more to do with style than activity.


Can the same be said with Michal? he's been beaten in round 1 3x and once in round 2 to lesser ranked fighters.

And the sub threat is there, Holland has that darce choke. Plus i have a hard time believing that Michel Perreira would have walked Kevin down like he did Michal. Michal looked like a little kid that was bullied and beat down. It was one of the most dominating performances i've ever seen that didn't result in a quick flash ko.


The other guy i think can fail is maybe Alex Morono if he doesn't carry the power to get Nico out early, it could turn into a close kickboxing match.


This. -200 for a parlay maybe. but i've been doing those less lately. under 1.5 at plus odds i can see myself playing.

My problem with Holland is more his demeanor. I agree the level of competition he's lost to is better than Michal but it's how Kevin looks in those losses. It's like his attitude about winning doesn't match his skills. He does weird stuff, like vs Wonderboy when he was having success wrestling and then honored some unspoken agreement they maybe had to just strike? Like...you have a chance to win a fight with grappling that you're losing in the standup and you decide to let the other guy up? That's just not a guy I'm interested in backing at -200, even against someone he **should** beat on paper.

 

[Stat_Collector]

My problem with Holland is more his demeanor. I agree the level of competition he's lost to is better than Michal but it's how Kevin looks in those losses. It's like his attitude about winning doesn't match his skills. He does weird stuff, like vs Wonderboy when he was having success wrestling and then honored some unspoken agreement they maybe had to just strike? Like...you have a chance to win a fight with grappling that you're losing in the standup and you decide to let the other guy up? That's just not a guy I'm interested in backing at -200, even against someone he **should** beat on paper.

he didn’t do that with mvp tho, he did in fact grapple and fell short

on tape i just dont see how Michal wins.

Kevin is taller , longer limbs , better power ,straight punch, better grappler. anything is possible, he can have an off night, but i dont think he losses this one 90% of the time.

 

[PuertoRican]

he didn’t do that with mvp tho, he did in fact grapple and fell short

on tape i just dont see how Michal wins.

Kevin is taller , longer limbs , better power ,straight punch, better grappler. anything is possible, he can have an off night, but i dont think he losses this one 90% of the time.

Are you saying you think Kevin Holland should be -900 against Lord Michal? Or is my math totally wrong?

 

[magpie878]

Piggybacking on the Holland mentality, it's far too often he's yapping (and also too often it's to people OUTSIDE the cage).. why is so hard to just focus on the opponent and fight?

 

[rille31]

Piggybacking on the Holland mentality, it's far too often he's yapping (and also too often it's to people OUTSIDE the cage).. why is so hard to just focus on the opponent and fight?

I´m pretty sure Kevin has adhd or autism, probably has a bit of both