UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg

[mkess101]

Karolina Kowalkiewicz's decision line (+500) seems very wide there is definitely value imo. Lucindo is too low volume and lacks the punching power to cover this line.

Lucindo's fantasy score line on underdog is WAY too high. IMO this is one to exploit for anyone who plays daily fantasy. They have it set at 68.55. The scoring is:

1st round finish 50 pts
2nd round finish 40 pts
3rd rd finish 30 pts
Decision win 10 pts
Sig strikes .5 pts
Takedown 5 pts
Submission attempt 4 pts
Knockdown 10 pts


Do the math. How likely is it that she goes over that number, EVEN if she wins? Maybe 20% of the time she eclipses that amount of points?

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Karolina always works and imposure her pace in stand up, so if it's enough to win, it's a good value odd for her.

 

[Thesnake101]

Brito relies too much on power and explosiveness. He is liable to gassing out.

Shore was able to negate Valiev. He can do the same to Brito.

That's at 135 though, I don't think Shore is prepared for the type of power Brito brings to the table. Thinking he gets chinned early.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Seriously what is Shore’s path to victory? Taking down Brito and controlling him for 2/3 rounds? I just dont see it. I think Brito is a good bet

Technical striking with volume, mixing in takedowns and avoiding the power and frustrating him like Algeo did.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Karolina Kowalkiewicz's decision line (+500) seems very wide there is definitely value imo. Lucindo is too low volume and lacks the punching power to cover this line.

Lucindo has a big grappling advantage if she chooses to go that path.

 

[Spath]

Ok, hear me out! I’m one of those guys who watch Anthony Smith fights and always root for his opponents. That will be no different this time…

But Smith is +520 underdog against a guy who certainly looks the part, but doesn’t really fight too well. Petrino looked very basic with his stand up against Pedro. He also slowed down a lot after a bit and I don’t remember the fight being very high paced. He also couldn’t finish Turkalj a couple fights ago, who’s really been a punching bag in the UFC.

Smith is very, very experienced and has seen it all. I think Smith has the advantage both standing and on the ground, in experience and ability to game plan. And cardio, I’d say.

Why is Petrino so big favorite? Big muscles? He is undefeated, but he hasn’t really fought top fighters. He obviously has the power advantage, but I wouldn’t count on that.

Worth a stab

 

[StewDogg11]

Buyer beware that Aldo is only taking this fight to finish his UFC contract so he can go box. I'm sure he'll try and win in Rio but I also doubt he's been training with the same intensity he normally does.

He’s been boxing.

 

[Thesnake101]

Ok, hear me out! I’m one of those guys who watch Anthony Smith fights and always root for his opponents. That will be no different this time…

But Smith is +520 underdog against a guy who certainly looks the part, but doesn’t really fight too well. Petrino looked very basic with his stand up against Pedro. He also slowed down a lot after a bit and I don’t remember the fight being very high paced. He also couldn’t finish Turkalj a couple fights ago, who’s really been a punching bag in the UFC.

Smith is very, very experienced and has seen it all. I think Smith has the advantage both standing and on the ground, in experience and ability to game plan. And cardio, I’d say.

Why is Petrino so big favorite? Big muscles? He is undefeated, but he hasn’t really fought top fighters. He obviously has the power advantage, but I wouldn’t count on that.

Worth a stab

I think it's because his fights with Modestas and Bellato x2 show what he's capable of doing when he lands.

If this were a Smith who isn't a sitting duck then I'd 100% be in for a underdog pick, but I just feel like Anthony has slowed down so much that he'll get caught eventually.

 

[Spath]

I think it's because his fights with Modestas and Bellato x2 show what he's capable of doing when he lands.

If this were a Smith who isn't a sitting duck then I'd 100% be in for a underdog pick, but I just feel like Anthony has slowed down so much that he'll get caught eventually.

Punchers chance shouldn’t make the odds that wide. Part of me still hopes Smith gets flatlined, so I’ll still be happy either way

 

[Hellowhosthat]

He’s been boxing.

He wants to be able to box where he wants

 

[StewDogg11]

He wants to be able to box where he wants

He’s boxed both in the US and Brazil. Where else would he want to box at that the UFC won’t let him? This fight is likely a money grab for him but not for the reasons you think. This is a way bigger payday than 6 round boxing matches against cans with a 1-4-1 record.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

He’s boxed both in the US and Brazil. Where else would he want to box at that the UFC won’t let him? This fight is likely a money grab for him but not for the reasons you think. This is a way bigger payday than 6 round boxing matches against cans with a 1-4-1 record.

He wants to box on the Paul Vs Tyson card but the UFC wouldn't allow it .

 

[Macaque]

Takeaways from taping the Orolbai vs Satuev fight are that, firstly, ACA robbed Orolbai blind, and secondly, Orolbai’s takedown defense, while solid, isn’t bulletproof.

Reminiscent of my tape on Blaydes for the Almeida fight. I’m not referring to the mechanics, since Blaydes gets taken down while trying to punch while his opponent tries to get him down, but moreso the fact that Orolbai seems more offensively potent than defensively savvy while wrestling. Could see Brener getting takedowns of his own, but hard to bet him. I see Orolbai winning but not at the implied probability of current odds.

 

[StewDogg11]

He wants to box on the Paul Vs Tyson card but the UFC wouldn't allow it .

How is that when they’ve already “allowed” him to box? He just can’t fight MMA fights anywhere else with fights left on his UFC contract.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

How is that when they’ve already “allowed” him to box? He just can’t fight MMA fights anywhere else with fights left on his UFC contract.

They give him permission to box on a fight by fight basis. It's the same as they're okay with Masvidal boxing Nate when he's still under contract but they won't clear him to fight Jake.

 

[ether]

UFC contract is making these fighters struggle in life. Without means to make money out UFC.

If he wants to fight undercard in Jake vs Mike, who would he fight by the way?

 

[Thesnake101]

Takeaways from taping the Orolbai vs Satuev fight are that, firstly, ACA robbed Orolbai blind, and secondly, Orolbai’s takedown defense, while solid, isn’t bulletproof.

Reminiscent of my tape on Blaydes for the Almeida fight. I’m not referring to the mechanics, since Blaydes gets taken down while trying to punch while his opponent tries to get him down, but moreso the fact that Orolbai seems more offensively potent than defensively savvy while wrestling. Could see Brener getting takedowns of his own, but hard to bet him. I see Orolbai winning but not at the implied probability of current odds.

I'm thinking of betting the over in that fight, but the way Elves iced his last opponent does make me feel something could happen early, albeit I think he loses here

 

[sonhow]

Orolbai pre bet on parlay and Elves live if Orolbai struggles to keep control after early takedowns. One thing about Elves this guy doesnt wilt. But he might get controlled if the difference in physicality is too much to overcome. And pre fight I think it will be.

 

[Oblivian]

Orolbai pre bet on parlay and Elves live if Orolbai struggles to keep control after early takedowns. One thing about Elves this guy doesnt wilt. But he might get controlled if the difference in physicality is too much to overcome. And pre fight I think it will be.

With the new scoring criteria, there is a bit more unpredictability. It really depends on who is judging. You may have 4 minutes of a guy taking someone down, opponent back up, snake around to try to get to back, control there for a bit, drop to legs for takedown, quick takedown but right back up, etc. I mean it's literally shutting down the opponent and you do have control making them defend throughout, but some judges see that as nothing now. So whatever happens in that other minute is everything. Others seem to put some value to the 4 minutes, so the offense in the other minute needs to be more lopsided. In these situations, I'm tending towards the dog. I'm not saying it's right or even if it has been effective yet. At this point, they are weird fights to bet.

 

[sonhow]

With the new scoring criteria, there is a bit more unpredictability. It really depends on who is judging. You may have 4 minutes of a guy taking someone down, opponent back up, snake around to try to get to back, control there for a bit, drop to legs for takedown, quick takedown but right back up, etc. I mean it's literally shutting down the opponent and you do have control making them defend throughout, but some judges see that as nothing now. So whatever happens in that other minute is everything. Others seem to put some value to the 4 minutes, so the offense in the other minute needs to be more lopsided. In these situations, I'm tending towards the dog. I'm not saying it's right or even if it has been effective yet. At this point, they are weird fights to bet.

Depends on how much life the controlled guy shows I guess. Judgin really is more subjective than ever it seems like. But I think Orolbai can absolutely overwhelm him but if not Im ready to unload on that Elves line live.