UFC 290: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez, July 8

[ExitLUPin]

Moreno Pantoja fight ends submission is +300

Pantojas sub path is clear but he has one of the best chins in flyweight history. The shots he took against Fig were SICKENING wouldve put away 95% of flyweights. Moreno himself has an absurd chin too. Moreno I have a hard time seeing knock him out an attritive one maybe but IMO club and sub or late sub after Pantoja gas tank is gone are on cards. 11/21 wins by sub too.

Points is -120 and KO/TKO is +210.... This is terrific value IMO.

 

[burge13]

Green/Ferg odds out? Nothing here
Edit: wrong card. Im an idiot

 

[King-Ryan]

The Under 0.5 in the Nickal fight is +130... all of his fights so far have ended before that point. This guy won't be the first to make it longer will he?

*Picket fight went over by 25 seconds my bad... I still like this play and I also have large exposure on Nickal/U1.5 -400 in parlays

 

[mkess101]

The Under 0.5 in the Nickle fight is +130... all of his fights so far have ended before that point. This guy won't be the first to make it longer will he?

The one thing I will say is that refs are human beings and come into fights with the same preconceived notions we do. Meaning, whoever is reffing is gonna know that Nickal is the uber hyped prospect and this other dude was brought in to be cannon fodder. So when Nickal takes dude down early and gets to work, I think human nature for the ref is to stop it earlier than most fights if Nickal is scoring with any sort of meaningful GNP. That's of course if he hasn't already softened dude up to where he gives his back and gets choked or sinks in an arm triangle. When it's what is "supposed to happen", refs are quicker to jump in usually.

So in short...I think there's probably a little value at + odds that it doesn't go more than 2.5 minutes.

 

[PuertoRican]

The Under 0.5 in the Nickle fight is +130... all of his fights so far have ended before that point. This guy won't be the first to make it longer will he?

Bo Nickal's new opponent is a step down from Bo's previous opponent, but Bo's last fight went over 0.5, and the fight would've lasted longer if there wasn't a foul that led to the take down.

I just rewatched the fight because I remembered that Jamie Pickett complained after the fight. Jamie was stopping Bo's take downs, and when Bo had Jamie against the cage, he landed a knee to the balls that made Jamie make an ugly face like when you get kneed in the balls, and then Bo was able to get a take down and eventually transition a little bit to get on top of Jamie and lock in an arm triangle.

So, even by fouling Jamie to get the take down, Bo still went over the prop that you like so much. That being said, his new short notice opponent is only 5'8 and is a striker, so the under 0.5 probably hits.

 

[King-Ryan]

Bo Nickal's new opponent is a step down from Bo's previous opponent, but Bo's last fight went over 0.5, and the fight would've lasted longer if there wasn't a foul that led to the take down.

I just rewatched the fight because I remembered that Jamie Pickett complained after the fight. Jamie was stopping Bo's take downs, and when Bo had Jamie against the cage, he landed a knee to the balls that made Jamie make an ugly face like when you get kneed in the balls, and then Bo was able to get a take down and eventually transition a little bit to get on top of Jamie and lock in an arm triangle.

So, even by fouling Jamie to get the take down, Bo still went over the prop that you like so much. That being said, his new short notice opponent is only 5'8 and is a striker, so the under 0.5 probably hits.

Ah good call my bad the Picket fight did go over by 25 seconds... Like you said tho a big part of my logic is that 6'2 picket is a decent grappler and still had nothing for Bo and this 5'8 step down in competition should have much less

 

[King-Ryan]

If your book has it Nickle and U1.5 is -400... just parlayed the shit out of it

 

[rille31]

The Under 0.5 in the Nickle fight is +130... all of his fights so far have ended before that point. This guy won't be the first to make it longer will he?

His last one went over 0.5

 

[King-Ryan]

His last one went over 0.5

Yeah that is my bad someone else pointed that out. I still like the play tho and I'm big on Nickal/U1.5 -400 I think it's one of the greatest locks I have ever seen it even covers the other guy landing a lucky shot early if Bo slips again

 

[Jae Gibbz]

I’m absolutely not saying it won’t hit because it probably will, but -400 for a u1.5 is way too expensive. Plus odds on u0.5 is nice, though

 

[mkess101]

I’m absolutely not saying it won’t hit because it probably will, but -400 for a u1.5 is way too expensive. Plus odds on u0.5 is nice, though

I'm playing under 3.5 minutes on PP. This guy is a completely overmatched last minute replacement. Bo is much bigger and while still raw, is in another stratosphere in terms of athleticism. This guy will be on his back inside a minute, and I cannot see him surviving more than a couple minutes once there.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

I'm playing under 3.5 minutes on PP. This guy is a completely overmatched last minute replacement. Bo is much bigger and while still raw, is in another stratosphere in terms of athleticism. This guy will be on his back inside a minute, and I cannot see him surviving more than a couple minutes once there.

Yeah, I like that. Just wouldn't play -400 on u1.5. Would rather find a prop or u0.5, etc

 

[mkess101]

Yeah, I like that. Just wouldn't play -400 on u1.5. Would rather find a prop or u0.5, etc

For sure. Lotta juice.

 

[King-Ryan]

Yeah, I like that. Just wouldn't play -400 on u1.5. Would rather find a prop or u0.5, etc

For sure. Lotta juice.

Come on now have some fun... Parlays that with say Turner or the U1.5 In thr JDM fight and all of sudden you have decent odds...

-400 is 80% implied probability and I think this hits 95/100 times atleast

 

[mkess101]

Come on now have some fun... Parlays that with say Turner or the U1.5 In thr JDM fight and all of sudden you have decent odds...

-400 is 80% implied probability and I think this hits 95/100 times atleast

I have an inherent bias against paying that much juice I think LOL. Even when it still may have value. I mean...you're EXTREMELY likely to cash it yeah haha.

I did bet Floyd at -600 vs Conor so I guess it's not like I've never paid juice like that. I capped Floyd like -4000 in that fight though.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Come on now have some fun... Parlays that with say Turner or the U1.5 In thr JDM fight and all of sudden you have decent odds...

-400 is 80% implied probability and I think this hits 95/100 times atleast

I do think it hits, but I’m gonna pass on it. Just don’t like playing those odds on u1.5s

 

[jnes]

Turner/Hooker O1.5 is -125. Surely Dan can survive that long right?

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Yeah that is my bad someone else pointed that out. I still like the play tho and I'm big on Nickal/U1.5 -400 I think it's one of the greatest locks I have ever seen it even covers the other guy landing a lucky shot early if Bo slips again

The guy he is fighting is very physically strong, has a lot more experience, and is used to having cardio intensive fights where he has to fight through fatigue.

Bo will eventually finish him but U1.5 is definitely not a lock. Its also worth considering that Bo is going to be very weary of gassing himself out squeezing on submission attempts because that is this guys only path to victory.

Bo makes a lot of mistakes, whether its due to nerves or inexperience, nothing is a sure thing in his fights. In two of his three submission wins (Borrego, Pickett) the opponent tapped to pressure not because the submission he attempted was locked in. That isn't the type of fighter who is a lock to finish a way more experienced opponent in U1.5.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Even though I see Turner finishing hooker in the first Rd I don't see anyone giving hooker much of a chance this will be by far Turner biggest step up in competition besides his last fight which he lost and I agreed with the scorecards and I had a bet on Turner. Every single person who beat hooker would beat Turner as well

 

[King-Ryan]

The guy he is fighting is very physically strong, has a lot more experience, and is used to having cardio intensive fights where he has to fight through fatigue.

Bo will eventually finish him but U1.5 is definitely not a lock. Its also worth considering that Bo is going to be very weary of gassing himself out squeezing on submission attempts because that is this guys only path to victory.

Bo makes a lot of mistakes, whether its due to nerves or inexperience, nothing is a sure thing in his fights. In two of his three submission wins (Borrego, Pickett) the opponent tapped to pressure not because the submission he attempted was locked in. That isn't the type of fighter who is a lock to finish a way more experienced opponent in U1.5.

Ok I know I shouldn't use the "lock" world but I'm feeling good about having the line in parlays...

I don't touch lines like this unless I feel the fight is basicly a sacrafice... I wanted nothing to do with Guram last week and I'm not playing Whitaker, Taira, Volk, Saaiman etc...

This guy does have more MMA experience but when it comes to experience manhandeling people it's not even comparable. I'm positive Bo is the much stronger and more conditioned athlete... Not to mention Woodburn is on like 5 days notice and said he weighed like 210 or something when he got the call so his weight cut (if he makes 185) won't be fun.

Woodburn went to a DEC in his last fight against a 42 year old can. Bo isn't going to entertain striking for more then 5-10 seconds and once he decides it's time to go to the ground the fight will go to the ground and be over shortly after that.