UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill

[Jasper_RB81]

What are you guys thinking about the Magney vs Burns fight. Magney is pretty solid and the line is very wide. Not sure if there is any value in there, but man.... Magney @ 4,6. I get that Burns should be the favourite but he's 36 years old and very short.
I guess people think he just does what he did to Wonderboy again without any real risks?

 

[Danis_champ]

What are you guys thinking about the Magney vs Burns fight. Magney is pretty solid and the line is very wide. Not sure if there is any value in there, but man.... Magney @ 4,6. I get that Burns should be the favourite but he's 36 years old and very short.
I guess people think he just does what he did to Wonderboy again without any real risks?

Magny is already 35 too and on a decline and looks like the guy has aged 10 years in the last 2 years. He is not a KO threat. Average grappling skills but effective against lower level guys. Hard to see path to victory for him. Burns beats him everywhere pretty easily. Don't forget Burns nearly beat Khamzat and who the fuck does that?

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Bonfim is good... But he isn't his brother who's a next level prospect. Should he really be even odds with TWrecks?

I'd cap him as the favourite, he's far more technical than TWrecks.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

What are you guys thinking about the Magney vs Burns fight. Magney is pretty solid and the line is very wide. Not sure if there is any value in there, but man.... Magney @ 4,6. I get that Burns should be the favourite but he's 36 years old and very short.
I guess people think he just does what he did to Wonderboy again without any real risks?

Magny is going to get trounced. Gilbert has pressure and awesome top BJJ which are Magny's two main Achilles heels.

 

[Thesnake101]

I'd cap him as the favourite, he's far more technical than TWrecks.

Ditto, already played him at dog odds just in case the line flips. Now waiting to get my hands on his KO line to parlay it.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Magny is going to get trounced. Gilbert has pressure and awesome top BJJ which are Magny's two main Achilles heels.

Ye, I think you are right. Wishful thinking that there is any value on Magney.

 

[mkess101]

Walker reversed Spann, Krylov, and Cutelaba; three of the four guys who have successfully taken him down in the UFC. He also won two of those fights and the Krylov fight was competitive, tied going into the final round, not exactly a domination.

If Craig pulls guard isn't there a high likelihood he gets knocked out by a Walker elbow just as Ryan Spann was while attempting to take Walker down?I don't disagree with you about Walker being untrustworthy but this is a uniquely bad matchup for Craig given Walkers length and history of KOing opponents with elbows.

At evens I'd consider Walker. Sure he could absolutely KO Craig. But look at the dudes Craig has subbed. You want to pay juice on a talented but flakey guy vs a guy who is the sub artists version of a striker with show stopping massive KO power? (Meaning he can and does pull subs off out of nowhere consistently).

Hard pass imo.

 

[lefontes]

What are you guys thinking about the Magney vs Burns fight. Magney is pretty solid and the line is very wide. Not sure if there is any value in there, but man.... Magney @ 4,6. I get that Burns should be the favourite but he's 36 years old and very short.
I guess people think he just does what he did to Wonderboy again without any real risks?

Easy fight for Durinho. How Magny win this? No way

 

[mkess101]

What are you guys thinking about the Magney vs Burns fight. Magney is pretty solid and the line is very wide. Not sure if there is any value in there, but man.... Magney @ 4,6. I get that Burns should be the favourite but he's 36 years old and very short.
I guess people think he just does what he did to Wonderboy again without any real risks?

Magny has one extremely slim PTV and that's wall n stall for the majority of the fight. He's slowed down a ton so his reach is negated by Gilbert's speed advantage. Magny isn't the grappler that Gilbert is.

Magny has always had great cardio so his one and only chance is tiring Burns out with cage hugging early and just winning rd 3 on grit and volume. The skill gap is too wide to play Magny imo though, even at steep odds.

 

[ballsackarino]

Whoa I wouldn't trust Walker here at all...

Esp "whatever the odds are". His TDD and anti grappling aren't good. He managed to reverse Cutelaba yeah because of multiple fence grabs but the way that Krylov so easily dominated him with grappling shows how pedestrian Walker is there. And while Craig's TD's aren't good, he doesn't even need to end up on top. He can get creative and Walker is a flake who may well engage Craig if Paul pulls guard or whatever. And Craig is a bigger sub threat than anyone Walker has faced by far.

Hard pass paying juice on Walker here. Craig may be declining and Walker may starch him but I could just as easily see Walker dummying his way into tapping to a triangle.

His TDD is probably good enough to stuff Craig tbh. I remember in the Corey Anderson fight he was defending Corey's takedowns pretty well while we was rocked

 

[Hellowhosthat]

His TDD is probably good enough to stuff Craig tbh. I remember in the Corey Anderson fight he was defending Corey's takedowns pretty well while we was rocked

Corey isn't going to pull guard though.

 

[Guld]

Just glancing over the card quickly.
Quick gut reaction says:
-Robocop
-Burns
-Potieria
-Walker
-Moreno
-Hill

I'll throw a little sprinkle on a parlay of some of those for now, and do some tape watching this week to see if anything changes.

 

[JonnyBonesPharmacist]

i don't see that he is a bigger 205ver than Anthony. And bigger in height reach.

Bigger doesnt mean that he hits harder. Especially vs AJ

 

[Stat_Collector]

Bigger doesnt mean that he hits harder. Especially vs AJ

Aj was a welterweight who fluctuates in weight and was not fighting at his proper weight class. for his frame he should have fought as a middleweight. Having a bigger frame and reach can mean generating better right-hand punches or lateral strikes. A short stout fighter throws meaner hooks. On average most of the time heavier bigger frames hit harder. That is why weigh classes exist in the first place. Hill is more than 220lb on fight night.

 

[mkess101]

His TDD is probably good enough to stuff Craig tbh. I remember in the Corey Anderson fight he was defending Corey's takedowns pretty well while we was rocked

Maybe. But he's way too flakey. Wouldn't shock me if he hurt Craig and then tossed him to the mat only to fall into a triangle or something.

 

[StewDogg11]

Aj was a welterweight who fluctuates in weight and was not fighting at his proper weight class. for his frame he should have fought as a middleweight. Having a bigger frame and reach can mean generating better right-hand punches or lateral strikes. A short stout fighter throws meaner hooks. On average most of the time heavier bigger frames hit harder. That is why weigh classes exist in the first place. Hill is more than 220lb on fight night.

So it only applies to right handed punches? Not left handed ones? Marvin Hagler, Micky Ward, and Jeff Lacy would all probably disagree.

 

[theTKDguy]

I expect a lot of unders to hit (except co-main fight)

 

[Stat_Collector]

So it only applies to right handed punches? Not left handed ones? Marvin Hagler, Micky Ward, and Jeff Lacy would all probably disagree.

Rear straight is what i meant, longer arms throw better lateral punches. IE jabs, straight right(or straight left)

Tommy Hearns=Straight right
Hagler=hooks.
Tyson=hooks
Lewis=Straight right
Frazier=Hooks
Ali=Straight rights.

I didn't mean right hand punches or orthodox, i said right hand because Hill is ortho , most fighters are.

 

[Dooze]

lol didn't realise Fig is fighting Moreno for the fourth time in a row. It's like in one of the UFC games where you win the belt and just keep getting offered the same fight until you retire.

Some interesting fights anyway. Initial thoughts:

- Magny is crafty and rarely an easy fight but Gil should beat him everywhere. It's just a question of whether or not Burns can finish him or not. My head says 30-27 Burns but I don't really think there's any decent bet here given the odds so far.

- I'll probably take Craig as an underdog, probably by sub if the odds are alright just because of how he fights. Walker could probably avoid getting taken down but I don't really trust him and his output on the feet has regressed massively. I think just sheer aggression and never stepping back from Craig will lead to Walker being in bad spots.

- Tough to see Andrade losing against Murphy and who knows how it ends, all seems priced accordingly though so psimilar to the Burns fight I'll probably just avoid.

- Glover/Hill is interesting. Glover I back for the experience, a clear path to victory (take him down) and his durability. Hill should be faster and hits hard but Glover has an ability to either implement his gameplan or if not have it all his own way, make it a dogfight. I think if it gets past the first or second round, it's going badly for Hill and probably Glovers fight to lose. If it goes to a decision it's because Glover is having success, and we know what success for Glover tends to look like nowadays - take you down, beat you up and look for a sub. I think if Hill wins it's by KO and realistically in r1 or r2 rather than a cumulative effort - the longer it goes the more likely it is that Hill is getting smothered and exhausted.

Glover I have concerns about, mostly thinking he's been in too many wars and he's not going to be able to take it anymore. When it happens it happens quick so I wouldn't be surprised if Hill sparks him but at the same time I thought he was done after that Gus fight but he's proven me wrong. Pick em odds make sense, I think if either end up drifting and we get a clear favourite, I'd be happy to back the underdog. At pick em I'm less interested but don't think Hill should be a favourite over Glover.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Rear straight is what i meant, longer arms throw better lateral punches. IE jabs, straight right(or straight left)

Tommy Hearns=Straight right
Hagler=hooks.
Tyson=hooks
Lewis=Straight right
Frazier=Hooks
Ali=Straight rights.

I didn't mean right hand punches or orthodox, i said right hand because Hill is ortho , most fighters are.

Hill is a southpaw.