UFC 281, Adesanya vs. Pereira, November 12

On 5dimes it's -165, on Betonline it's at those plus odds, so I played that.

Alex Pereira NSA @+115
200 to win 230

Blanchfield SUB @+240
38 to win 91.20

Ottman Azaitar round 1 @+335
25 to win 83.75



Also saw these, but haven't made a play yet.
Petroski sub +550
Chandler round 1 @+400
Chandler round 1 ko @+800

Nice. Chandler KO rd 1 is waaaaaay better at +800 than his rd 1 line at +400 imo. He's not gonna sub Dustin. Dustin's grappling is legit. Khabib got him when Dustin had nothing left in the tank but that's a generational grappler vs an exhausted Dustin. Chandler isn't getting a sub other than an utter flukey finish.
 
Nice. Chandler KO rd 1 is waaaaaay better at +800 than his rd 1 line at +400 imo. He's not gonna sub Dustin. Dustin's grappling is legit. Khabib got him when Dustin had nothing left in the tank but that's a generational grappler vs an exhausted Dustin. Chandler isn't getting a sub other than an utter flukey finish.

(don't forget Oliveira either...)

And no, I don't think Chandler is getting a sub in round 1, regardless.
 
Nice. Chandler KO rd 1 is waaaaaay better at +800 than his rd 1 line at +400 imo. He's not gonna sub Dustin. Dustin's grappling is legit. Khabib got him when Dustin had nothing left in the tank but that's a generational grappler vs an exhausted Dustin. Chandler isn't getting a sub other than an utter flukey finish.
Sorry, made a mistake. That round 1 stoppage was +500, not +400. But yeah, doesn't change the overall idea.
 
(don't forget Oliveira either...)

And no, I don't think Chandler is getting a sub in round 1, regardless.

True. But again, a guy with the most sub wins in UFC history. Not really Chandler's game to sub hunt like that (even though he is a capable grappler).
 
Gonna be honest, I do lean Dustin overall. Both have been through wars but I just think Dustin is the slicker, more polished striker. Chandler rd1 KO at +800 is nice because I think if he wins its by catching Dustin early.
 
Many FDGTD in this event.
Main, co main, Poirier X Chandler, Riddel X Mociano, André X Thurman, Hooker X Puelles. Love finishes.
Any like this?
 
Chandler could steal a 3 rounder here also,he wasn't far away from doing it to Gaethje.Dustin can be hit,not saying he will,but in a 5 rounder this would be good price for Dustin,since it's 3 I think the line is right.
 
That's fair.

Only i would argue Jon is still better than Spann

He's about five million levels better BUT by the time the Reyes fight came he had clearly stopped caring. After he took Gus's soul in that rematch, he basically checked out. He had smoked his biggest rival in DC and answered the one question about the guy that some people thought had maybe beaten him the first time in Gus. There was zero killer instinct in the fights with Lionheart, Santos, or Reyes. He was there for a paycheck and clearly doing anything but focusing on performing to the best of his abilities.

Probably a combination of boredom from dominating everyone for so long and distraction from being an idiot outside the cage, but dude wasn't even CLOSE to the same guy he was previously. He went from the GOAT fighter ever, in any weight class, to just a really good LHW in the span of ONE FIGHT. Crazy.
 
He's about five million levels better BUT by the time the Reyes fight came he had clearly stopped caring. After he took Gus's soul in that rematch, he basically checked out. He had smoked his biggest rival in DC and answered the one question about the guy that some people thought had maybe beaten him the first time in Gus. There was zero killer instinct in the fights with Lionheart, Santos, or Reyes. He was there for a paycheck and clearly doing anything but focusing on performing to the best of his abilities.

Probably a combination of boredom from dominating everyone for so long and distraction from being an idiot outside the cage, but dude wasn't even CLOSE to the same guy he was previously. He went from the GOAT fighter ever, in any weight class, to just a really good LHW in the span of ONE FIGHT. Crazy.

That's fair.

Only i would argue Jon is still better than Spann
 
That's fair.

Only i would argue Jon is still better than Spann

So...yes. I would say even the version that won the controversial decision vs Reyes was a "better" fighter than Spann. Technically better for sure, far more talented, no argument here. (Pretty obvious LOL, Jones is probably the most talented fighter EVER so...)

But...

Even a "better" fighter may be a worse BET if they have zero investment in actually trying to perform as well as they're capable, right? Would you rather bet on a supremely talented fighter as a huge favorite who obviously doesn't care anymore and who's clearly half assing his way through mandatory title defenses...OR...on a less talented fighter as a dog who at least seems hungry and who is clearly invested in finishing opponents and not simply showing up because he has to?
 
This is a very nice card for betting imo. I like a lot of unders at first sight: zhang should put on a beating on carla, puelles vs hooker is definitely ending inside 2 (either puelles by sub early or hooker by tko later), silvana is most likely sleeping kk, and frevola and ulberg especially have opponents who eat shots for a hobby in front of them. I would add spann vs reyes and mike vs dustin in and you've got a lot of violence bets with a high probability of cashing.

For some reason im feeling chandler gets a quick stoppage on saturday. Gutierrez is a winnable matchup i guess but frankie is so fucking old. Never seen him gas til the chito fight. Wtf knows. Wouldn't put much on that one. Molly should get her brains wrestled but blanchfield is way overpriced, it's wmma and meatball's got some power.
 
So...yes. I would say even the version that won the controversial decision vs Reyes was a "better" fighter than Spann. Technically better for sure, far more talented, no argument here. (Pretty obvious LOL, Jones is probably the most talented fighter EVER so...)

But...

Even a "better" fighter may be a worse BET if they have zero investment in actually trying to perform as well as they're capable, right? Would you rather bet on a supremely talented fighter as a huge favorite who obviously doesn't care anymore and who's clearly half assing his way through mandatory title defenses...OR...on a less talented fighter as a dog who at least seems hungry and who is clearly invested in finishing opponents and not simply showing up because he has to?
i generally think Dom is a good counter wrestler. He played college football , which imo is a distant cousin of wrestling. I don't think he got up off the floor cause Jon was being lazy or fighting for a check, Dom is just good at getting up off the floor and exploding up to his feet.

Now you're going to tell me 'ok I want whatever statcollector is drinking.' but in my honest opinion football players have good sprawls and center of gravity. they tend to have good cardio too, depending on position, he was no fat defensive lineman, he was a safety , these were his numbers:

'Reyes isn't the Safety archetype. At 6'4", 220 lbs, he looks more like a small linebacker. But when you see him in coverage, he erases any doubt he's in the right spot. The team captain and defensive MVP, he played in all 48 games at Stony Brook the past 4 years, starting every game the past 3. He is now the all-time leader in tackles at Stony Brook and was voted 1st Team All-Big South in 2012 and 2nd Team All-Big South in 2011. His 75 tackles this year ranked 3rd on the team, a number that included 9 tackles for loss (never blitzed).'



I just generally think he is a superior athlete. A fighter with good cardio is always going to be reliable. His two last losses were just against literally number 1 & 3 right now. I don't think Spann has anything for him. I don't rate his sub wins to be that high, 90% sub wins against regional no names and then two ufc low tier guys(Cotulaba and Devin.) if he failed to submit Sam Alvey and went to split decision, you think now he's going to threaten Reyes who's logged in 25 mins of a competitive fight with a goat like Jon Jones? Jon who koed Dc faster and easy, but failed to do to Reyes.

Lastly Spann is a dope, rewatch that fight with Johnny Walker where he had him shook and then shot for a takedown like a low iq would do and then got his head smashed in while holding on to his leg. Once a fighter makes a low Iq move like that, I auto-fade them forever.
 
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i generally think Dom is a good counter wrestler. He played college football , which imo is a distant cousin of wrestling. I don't think he got up off the floor cause Jon was being lazy or fighting for a check, Dom is just good at getting up off the floor and exploding up to his feet.

Now you're going to tell me 'ok I want whatever statcollector is drinking.' but in my honest opinion football players have good sprawls and center of gravity. they tend to have good cardio too, depending on position, he was no fat defensive lineman, he was a safety , these were his numbers:

'Reyes isn't the Safety archetype. At 6'4", 220 lbs, he looks more like a small linebacker. But when you see him in coverage, he erases any doubt he's in the right spot. The team captain and defensive MVP, he played in all 48 games at Stony Brook the past 4 years, starting every game the past 3. He is now the all-time leader in tackles at Stony Brook and was voted 1st Team All-Big South in 2012 and 2nd Team All-Big South in 2011. His 75 tackles this year ranked 3rd on the team, a number that included 9 tackles for loss (never blitzed).'



I just generally think he is a superior athlete. A fighter with good cardio is always going to be reliable. His two last losses were just against literally number 1 & 3 right now. I don't think Spann has nothing for him. I don't rate his sub wins to be that high, 90% sub wins against regional no names and then two ufc low tier guys(Cotulaba and Devin.) if he failed to submit Sam Alvey and went to split decision, you think now he's going to threaten Reyes who's logged in 25 mins of a competitive fight with a goat like Jon Jones? Jon who koed Dc faster and easy, but failed to do to Reyes.

Reyes is a good athlete...but dude c'mon. He played for Stony Brook. By that rationale, Anders should be the best athlete in MMA. He played a similar position but at Alabama when they were winning the national title.

Jones was absolutely checked out by then. Look at his fights prior to that vs Smith and Santos. The Jones that cared would have ruined both of them, and quickly. Same with Reyes. Jones was simply on another level than them all as far as talent. He just...became a F up and stopped caring.

Spann is a flake, I actually agree. But, he's a flake with some power and finishing ability. And he tries. Yes, low fight IQ at times but he is dangerous. I favor Reyes, but not eager to bet on him either. Probably just a pass imo.

Lastly Spann is a dope, rewatch that fight with Johnny Walker where he had him shook and then shot for a takedown like a low iq would do and then got his head smashed in while holding on to his leg. Once a fighter makes a low Iq move like that, I auto-fade them forever.
 
Reyes is a good athlete...but dude c'mon. He played for Stony Brook. By that rationale, Anders should be the best athlete in MMA. He played a similar position but at Alabama when they were winning the national title.

Jones was absolutely checked out by then. Look at his fights prior to that vs Smith and Santos. The Jones that cared would have ruined both of them, and quickly. Same with Reyes. Jones was simply on another level than them all as far as talent. He just...became a F up and stopped caring.

Spann is a flake, I actually agree. But, he's a flake with some power and finishing ability. And he tries. Yes, low fight IQ at times but he is dangerous. I favor Reyes, but not eager to bet on him either. Probably just a pass imo.
fixed*

Im not implying that he is the best athlete, no different than Volk playing Rugby. Im only pointing out , that he is agile and good at tackling. He has good cardio so i know he isn't going to be a slouch on the ground. The fact is Jon did shoot on Reyes and his superior grappling than Spann was not enough.

There is no shame in those fights with Smith and Santos. Smith got completely dominated and Santos from 2019 had just starched Jan and Manuwa. Jones legit beat them. That version of Jon Jones is still miles better than Spann on any level. Dom legit could have won that fight. I know it's easy for me to argue from that authority because it's the obvious. But really think you're trying to make a case here out of thin air with no real proof that Dom is going to go in there and choke all the sudden. His sub escapes look sound and again you'd have to make me believe that Dom is less competant than Sam Alvey bjj defense, which i dont think you've convince me.
 
fixed*

Im not implying that he is the best athlete, no different than Volk playing Rugby. Im only pointing out , that he is agile and good at tackling. He has good cardio so i know he isn't going to be a slouch on the ground. The fact is Jon did shoot on Reyes and his superior grappling than Spann was not enough.

There is no shame in those fights with Smith and Santos. Smith got completely dominated and Santos from 2019 had just starched Jan and Manuwa. Jones legit beat them. That version of Jon Jones is still miles better than Spann on any level. Dom legit could have won that fight. I know it's easy for me to argue from that authority because it's the obvious. But really think you're trying to make a case here out of thin air with no real proof that Dom is going to go in there and choke all the sudden. His sub escapes look sound and again you'd have to make me believe that Dom is less competant than Sam Alvey bjj defense, which i dont think you've convince me.

I'm not only talking about sub, I think Spann could catch Dom too. He has some power, he'll throw hard.

And yeah Jones beat those guys but that was NOT the Jones who just absolutely SMASHED and dominated guys for years prior to that.

But to reiterate, I'm not betting Spann. I just also am not gonna be Reyes.
 
I'm not only talking about sub, I think Spann could catch Dom too. He has some power, he'll throw hard.

And yeah Jones beat those guys but that was NOT the Jones who just absolutely SMASHED and dominated guys for years prior to that.

But to reiterate, I'm not betting Spann. I just also am not gonna be Reyes.
I want you to do me a favor.

Open espn plus and watch Jiri vs Dom 1st rnd and then watch Spann vs Smith 1st round side by side.

And then honestly tell me you don't think Reyes isn't going to starch Spann in rnd1.

Drop 250$ on betonline on Dom winning in rnd 1. Like i just did

Amount:$250.00
Status:
Pending
To win:$562.50
Type:Future/Prop
Description:
MMA Props - Dominick Reyes vs Ryan Spann - Round Betting - Dominick Reyes in Round 1 +225

There you go free money.
 
If you're done watching the video, you've come to the same conclusion i did.

Dom has a chin. Spann does not. He has no chin and no coordination, Anthony was piecing him up on the feet and dropping him, And Reyes hits fast and harder than Anthony.

Reyes blasted Jiri with some hard punches and Jiri has a rock chin, difference here will be Dom will send Spann to the shadow realm .
 
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