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UFC 271: Adesanya vs Whittaker 2 - Feb 12
- Thread starter svmr_db
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Nasrat's always been overrated in the betting lines, I mean look how tight it was against hooker who was just levels above him. That was some of the easiest money of entire 2021.
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2c:
Hernandez/Moicano: Tough fight for me personally. As an overall fighter, I believe Moicano is miles better. Nice jab, leg kick, good overall Thai Style. Decent takedowns and a very high-level Jits game. He outstruck Kattar for three, dropped Cub with a jab, and was doing quite good against Fiziev before eating bombs. His chin is where things let him down. Hernandez is quite the front runner, he can crack and is very athletic and fast. If he can't get the finish early though his striking gets exposed over 3 rounds. He has had trouble with Trinaldo, Cowboy and Moises who is also pretty one-dimensional with the standup. Personally I might just sprinkle Hernandez round 1, at 7.00 I think there is a bit of value. He can KO anyone in the first and I think that's his best chance. The longer it goes the worse it might look for him as Moicano starts to get reads in the fight and picks him apart. I also think Hernandez can stuff the first couple of takedowns early which gives him a better chance for the KO.
Lawrence/Mana: Lots of hype on Lawerence, I can understand it. I hit him as a massive dog in Contender and a then small fav in UFC debut. He mixes it up very well, I love the style. He will get takedowns in my opinion, I think the wrestling is just too good not to. Mana has had problems with the ground in the past, the first loss was a split to Pery where he kept getting taken down but he was 22. On contender, he fell down off a kick and when he sweped Drako with an omoplata, he landed straight into a triangle instead of side control. He had a few nice sprawls against Turcios, but then against Rivera in the next fight was on his back for most of round 1. Even when he tried taking Guido down in his debut he got outmuscled and ended up on the bottom. The thing is Mana is only 25, is still improving, and hits like a truck. He has fought some chinny opponents like Jose Johnson but also KOing Turcios is impressive. He has a lot of single-strike KOs, you can see the natural power he possesses. He didn't ko an ancient chinny Guido, and I lost units in that one, but I blame that on his main coach dying the week off the fight. He missed weight and fought strangely. That performance is behind him now and he has gone 3 rounds in the UFC, I expect much better from him in the next. Lawrence's control is not the best, it's why he racks up so many takedowns. That alone and the fact that Mana is always dangerous when he gets to his feet makes it wide. Personally, I would rather sprinkle the KO line. The way Mana fights, if he keeps giving up takedowns I struggle to see him winning a DEC. Lawrence got cracked hard in the first by Cochero, I remember thinking he is live to get KOed after the first time I taped him with his hands down style. Dog or pass for me but likely a KO sprinkle.
Knight/Griffin: Man this is a low lvl fight I don't want any action on. Personally, I think its wide, every time you have Knight as a big dog against an average fighter it's wide. I said the same thing in his last, that Alonzo fight should have been a pick-em. Griffin is not a flake like Alonzo but I am still not impressed with him. Low volume, old and has that Russian coast style. He really made a meal out of that Antigulov fight. He did better against Jacoby but that was a good style matchup against another low output striker. People are referencing Jung as to why you should play Maxim. I had Jung and I feel like I'm lucky that he grappled. He was getting out volumed with leg kicks and getting cracked with big haymakers whenever he stepped into the pocket. Knight will grapple like always and he might struggle as Griffin has decent defense, but I doubt he will reverse Knight like Jung. I am going to keep it short and say I'm passing here, Knight is so unpredictable, I prefer to live bet like his last fight.
Perez/Schnell: Broke this down before so will try to keep it short. Feel like Perez wins but the odds are so wide I might sprinkle. I feel like Bontorin is a discount version of Perez, and it was worrying seeing Schnell get picked apart by a Bontorin who missed weight for 3 rounds. He was not checking any calf kicks either which is a massive red flag against Perez. Perez also has the wrestling advantage and I think he could survive on top. The only chance Schnell has is to fight more aggressively, which he might do after being outpointed in his last. If the odds get more wild I will sprinkle, Schnell is at least dangerous in every aspect.
Roxy/O'neill: You have to hit Roxy out of principle. O'Neill is still green and has a lot of holes, but you have to respect how she breaks her opponents down. She is aggressive and has great cardio which goes a long way in WMMA. She is not athletic, shes hittable and her wrestling is so and so, kind of similar to Roxy. It's why she lost the first round to Proccopio who was getting the better of her in every aspect of MMA until she gassed from period cramps. She had trouble with Dobson early too who seemed to be hitting much harder and was able to reverse her a few times, but she gassed very quickly. Antonina even got the crucifix position on her in the first lol. Now I do think Roxy will end up on her back, sometimes she falls over she is so gumby so don't think you need amazing wrestling. She has an active guard though, looks for armbars, and has a nice flower sweep straight to mount. Casey is wild enough to get reversed and I think only a purple belt. When Roxy tries to stuff a takedown she is quite strong and I think she can get her own takedowns here if she initiates the clinch first. This is a big step down from legit black belts who are athletic and hit hard in Santos and Araujo. Roxy was in those fights for all three rounds so I don't see her getting run through by someone like Casey. Honestly, I feel like Roxy has better boxing too, and underrated straight punches. I see this fight going similar to the Montano fight, with lots of groundwork, reversals, and takedowns. Roxy is old and it's her retirement fight so maybe she rolls over, but a lil sprinkle on her by DEC is a decent play if you ask me.
Arlovski/Vanderaa: This is numbers play for me. I got Jared early at 2.80 which I think is a big value against a 42-year-old Arlovski who can't have much left in the tank and always goes to a close decision. Vanderaa has a decent chance here with no takedown threat. He is lumbering and people shit on him but he has a ton of volume and some straight punches and body kicks. On the regionals, he uses lots of leg kicks of his own to break opponents down. Most of his finishes are on the ground from ground and pound, not saying he will take Arlovki down but if he ends up there like in round 3 against Carlos could be very bad. Vanderaa can also cage push him and use his size, he is a proper HW with a reach advantage as well. Vanderaa landed over 120 strikes Tafa which is insane for HW. Arlovski landed like 33 against Boser, and over a 100 v Rothwwell but almost got finished in the third. If Vanderaa can pressure hard for 3 I think he can wear on Arlovski who slows down with his evasive style. If he can hurt Tafa, he can hurt Arlovski. Arlovski isn't finishing the most durable man at HW so him by DEC is an easy easy hedge.
Hernandez/Moicano: Tough fight for me personally. As an overall fighter, I believe Moicano is miles better. Nice jab, leg kick, good overall Thai Style. Decent takedowns and a very high-level Jits game. He outstruck Kattar for three, dropped Cub with a jab, and was doing quite good against Fiziev before eating bombs. His chin is where things let him down. Hernandez is quite the front runner, he can crack and is very athletic and fast. If he can't get the finish early though his striking gets exposed over 3 rounds. He has had trouble with Trinaldo, Cowboy and Moises who is also pretty one-dimensional with the standup. Personally I might just sprinkle Hernandez round 1, at 7.00 I think there is a bit of value. He can KO anyone in the first and I think that's his best chance. The longer it goes the worse it might look for him as Moicano starts to get reads in the fight and picks him apart. I also think Hernandez can stuff the first couple of takedowns early which gives him a better chance for the KO.
Lawrence/Mana: Lots of hype on Lawerence, I can understand it. I hit him as a massive dog in Contender and a then small fav in UFC debut. He mixes it up very well, I love the style. He will get takedowns in my opinion, I think the wrestling is just too good not to. Mana has had problems with the ground in the past, the first loss was a split to Pery where he kept getting taken down but he was 22. On contender, he fell down off a kick and when he sweped Drako with an omoplata, he landed straight into a triangle instead of side control. He had a few nice sprawls against Turcios, but then against Rivera in the next fight was on his back for most of round 1. Even when he tried taking Guido down in his debut he got outmuscled and ended up on the bottom. The thing is Mana is only 25, is still improving, and hits like a truck. He has fought some chinny opponents like Jose Johnson but also KOing Turcios is impressive. He has a lot of single-strike KOs, you can see the natural power he possesses. He didn't ko an ancient chinny Guido, and I lost units in that one, but I blame that on his main coach dying the week off the fight. He missed weight and fought strangely. That performance is behind him now and he has gone 3 rounds in the UFC, I expect much better from him in the next. Lawrence's control is not the best, it's why he racks up so many takedowns. That alone and the fact that Mana is always dangerous when he gets to his feet makes it wide. Personally, I would rather sprinkle the KO line. The way Mana fights, if he keeps giving up takedowns I struggle to see him winning a DEC. Lawrence got cracked hard in the first by Cochero, I remember thinking he is live to get KOed after the first time I taped him with his hands down style. Dog or pass for me but likely a KO sprinkle.
Knight/Griffin: Man this is a low lvl fight I don't want any action on. Personally, I think its wide, every time you have Knight as a big dog against an average fighter it's wide. I said the same thing in his last, that Alonzo fight should have been a pick-em. Griffin is not a flake like Alonzo but I am still not impressed with him. Low volume, old and has that Russian coast style. He really made a meal out of that Antigulov fight. He did better against Jacoby but that was a good style matchup against another low output striker. People are referencing Jung as to why you should play Maxim. I had Jung and I feel like I'm lucky that he grappled. He was getting out volumed with leg kicks and getting cracked with big haymakers whenever he stepped into the pocket. Knight will grapple like always and he might struggle as Griffin has decent defense, but I doubt he will reverse Knight like Jung. I am going to keep it short and say I'm passing here, Knight is so unpredictable, I prefer to live bet like his last fight.
Perez/Schnell: Broke this down before so will try to keep it short. Feel like Perez wins but the odds are so wide I might sprinkle. I feel like Bontorin is a discount version of Perez, and it was worrying seeing Schnell get picked apart by a Bontorin who missed weight for 3 rounds. He was not checking any calf kicks either which is a massive red flag against Perez. Perez also has the wrestling advantage and I think he could survive on top. The only chance Schnell has is to fight more aggressively, which he might do after being outpointed in his last. If the odds get more wild I will sprinkle, Schnell is at least dangerous in every aspect.
Roxy/O'neill: You have to hit Roxy out of principle. O'Neill is still green and has a lot of holes, but you have to respect how she breaks her opponents down. She is aggressive and has great cardio which goes a long way in WMMA. She is not athletic, shes hittable and her wrestling is so and so, kind of similar to Roxy. It's why she lost the first round to Proccopio who was getting the better of her in every aspect of MMA until she gassed from period cramps. She had trouble with Dobson early too who seemed to be hitting much harder and was able to reverse her a few times, but she gassed very quickly. Antonina even got the crucifix position on her in the first lol. Now I do think Roxy will end up on her back, sometimes she falls over she is so gumby so don't think you need amazing wrestling. She has an active guard though, looks for armbars, and has a nice flower sweep straight to mount. Casey is wild enough to get reversed and I think only a purple belt. When Roxy tries to stuff a takedown she is quite strong and I think she can get her own takedowns here if she initiates the clinch first. This is a big step down from legit black belts who are athletic and hit hard in Santos and Araujo. Roxy was in those fights for all three rounds so I don't see her getting run through by someone like Casey. Honestly, I feel like Roxy has better boxing too, and underrated straight punches. I see this fight going similar to the Montano fight, with lots of groundwork, reversals, and takedowns. Roxy is old and it's her retirement fight so maybe she rolls over, but a lil sprinkle on her by DEC is a decent play if you ask me.
Arlovski/Vanderaa: This is numbers play for me. I got Jared early at 2.80 which I think is a big value against a 42-year-old Arlovski who can't have much left in the tank and always goes to a close decision. Vanderaa has a decent chance here with no takedown threat. He is lumbering and people shit on him but he has a ton of volume and some straight punches and body kicks. On the regionals, he uses lots of leg kicks of his own to break opponents down. Most of his finishes are on the ground from ground and pound, not saying he will take Arlovki down but if he ends up there like in round 3 against Carlos could be very bad. Vanderaa can also cage push him and use his size, he is a proper HW with a reach advantage as well. Vanderaa landed over 120 strikes Tafa which is insane for HW. Arlovski landed like 33 against Boser, and over a 100 v Rothwwell but almost got finished in the third. If Vanderaa can pressure hard for 3 I think he can wear on Arlovski who slows down with his evasive style. If he can hurt Tafa, he can hurt Arlovski. Arlovski isn't finishing the most durable man at HW so him by DEC is an easy easy hedge.
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someone give me an excuse to fade adesanya? Rob's jab?
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I see why some are on Nasrat. There is a chance that Nasrat could pull off the upset.
Booby does have the tools to win. It depends on what version of Bobby we will see on that fight day.
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throw away bet, Adesanya+carlos ITD+Ronnie+arlovski+Brunson
Carlos risk level 1-( 2 )with ITD
Izzy risk level 2/5
Ronnie risk level 2/5
Arlovski risk level 2/5
Brunson risk level 3/5
50 stake - 545$
Carlos risk level 1-( 2 )with ITD
Izzy risk level 2/5
Ronnie risk level 2/5
Arlovski risk level 2/5
Brunson risk level 3/5
50 stake - 545$
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I feel like eventually one of these guys will beat Arlovski, he's old and is barely getting by these up and comers, the one thing that separates Vandera from the other heavyweighs Arlovski has been sqeuking out decisions against is that he is just as big as Arlovski.
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Tanner Boser imo is what jared would be like if he was faster and more technical. Arlovski displayed good kicking defense against Tanner, i feel like once you take away Jared’s kicks what you are left with is a slow plotting brawler looking for a homerun ko. Arlovski has always had favoritism against heavyset fighters dating back to Paul Buentello to Roy Nelson. he took good shots from Tai and Felipe and survived, he even took lots of combo punches from Tom and stayed on his feet, i just dont see Jared having the hand speed or technique to catch Andrei. His win on Tafa was due to the fact that he had over 20 something fights ama-pro combined and Tafa(less than 4 fights) is very 1 dimensional. Jared was able to clinch fight and smash his legs due to tafa being heavy and slow. I don’t think Arlovski has much to worry here other than getting hit with a homerun right hand. Even when Jared beat Tafa, at the end he looked like he was in a blood bath. It wasn’t a clean of a win. I will acknowledge that andrei is not the most consistent winner, so i put him in a risk level 2/5 . There is a small chance he gets koed like the Brett Rogers fight or Rozen. But thats what jared needs, a homerun.
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Why are people betting brunson? Cannoier is now -150 is it just me or is Cannoier the easiet bet of the card if brunson cant get the takedown hes fucked
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He’s been taken down 18x in his career ppl assume he has solid td defense, this is mostly due to being matched with non wrestlers, if this was a 5 round fight i would not touch this, but in three rounds Brunson could ground ctrl his way to decision.
at the end of the day he is the highest ranked underdog in the entire card. But i dont think its a safe bet for either side rather jared or brunson
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Also Idk if you watched media day but anytime a fighter mentions retirement alwalys makes me iffy brunson says he has 2 fights left this one and then the title shot and hes done
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He’s on a winning streak. His confidence is very high. Unlike say Tyron woodley who was talking retirement after multiple loses.
you gotta look at it like the stock market. Brunson is a rising stock that is shooting to the ceiling and is in line for adesanya if he beats Rob. The rivalry and intensity is there for him. Jared is scary to bet against so I’ll just accept as a low cost lost for me.
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Whats your bet on this fight?
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I posted it above. Might throw 75$ on a decision prop.
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Boser fights nothing like Vanderaa. He bounces in and out, is low volume, and throws leg kicks and big hooks. If you tape Jared he is mostly somewhat technical with his boxing. He throws jabs and straight punches and ends his combinations with body kicks. Far from a brawler when everything he throws is a combo you would see on the pads. Boser was also 20+ pounds lighter and even though he out volume Arlosvski he got cracked once or twice per round and lost because he seemed stunned by a bigger man. After that he barely threw, Vanderaa will keep coming. You say he beat Tafa because he is one-dimensional, but Tafa is a kickboxer and he got outstruck in a kickboxing fight for 3 straight rounds. Clinch didn't do much, in fact it was where Tafa landed one of his best shots that cut him. You say it wasent a clean win because of that cut and blood, it was 30-27 on two judges' scorecards and 80% of media members. Rest had it 29-28 also, unanimous. Vanderaa doesn't need a big haymaker, he just needs to out-volume Arlovski which he is capable of.
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I didn't say they fight the same, I said if Jared was faster and more technical he would throw the same amount of kicks with the benefit of speed on his side. The thing about weight is that it works best for grappling , for striking it slows you down, especially how much fat Jared is carrying around. I don't see Jared putting the same kind of pace Felipe put on arlovski, a lot of his punches on tafa were counter hooks, tafa was getting angry and kept getting countered .
Tafa is not a kick boxer, his grand father was a national box champ, and his brother fights in glory. Tafa only had 6 fights at the time. And what I saw was Jared getting blasted in the second round. I would say tafa won the boxing exchanges but lost the footsies game. I think arlovski likes these kinds of fights.
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I don’t have much confidence in old arlovski to keep squeaking out these decision against younger fights
vanderaa Dec is +300. Pretty good value
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probably hits, im nervous about Arlovski though u never know. I had the over 2.5 in Felipe fight and im glad I didnt have the GTD otherwise I would have had a heart attack
