UFC 266 - Volkanovski vs Ortega - Offical discussion
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That Edson fight was hard to watch. Maybe the hardest beatdown in mma history after Holloway vs Kattar.
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my quick 2c on these remaining fights I taped:
Marlon/Merab: Think Merab has a tough first-round here. Had to dig through some fights to find footage of Marlons grappling. The dude is very strong and explosive. Even in the second when he was tired he instantly shook off Cejudos shot on him. We seen him take Font down with easy who has solid wrestling. He also has that nasty guillotine, subbing Assuncao is no joke. Merab closes the distance super wild. I faded him against Dodson because of that, and then he came out super cautious. If he does that here might a low volume round where he is eating leg kicks from a distance, bit like Cejudo round 1. He was wilder against Cody and seemed to be a lot more hittable again. Don't feel comfortable with any prices here, DEC is juiced and I don't know how shot Marlon is. Have the tiniest sprinkle on Moraes RD1, and will probably just live bet after.
Hooker/Nasrat: I will say again I'm not the best at capping standup fights. But I have a few questions about Nasrat. Who is the best striker he has faced, Dober? And then Gouti, Jaquim? That Dober fight left a bad taste in my mouth, the moment seemed too big for him, and ever since that fight he dosent seems to have that same aura about him. I still have questions about his chin, how he will handle war, and being the nail. I know Hooker can take it from the best. Also think his striking is one level above. The accuracy, calf kicks, knees, counters going backward, power. Nasrat cant fight backward and uses a high guard. He is a southpaw but we saw Hooker use the calf kick to the inside against Proier who is also a southpaw. Im not 100% even though I have a unit on Hooker, but what I feel might happen is Hookers experience, power and durability could get him a win here in a close fight or he runs away with it and dominates.
Blaydes/Rozenstruik: Not going too deep into this. Watched a couple of fights to refresh my memory. I would hammer Blaydes in every fight, an explosive wrestler at HW with cardio and a good chin, what could go wrong. Didn't bet him in Lewis fight but I bet the over, which sucked balls. A lot of the time Blaydes' entries are pretty average. He couldn't take down Lewis which is embarrassing or JDS. Rozenstruik is improving, he might get him down but I dont think he can hold him down. Either way odds are too juiced, Rozenstruik could have 3 rounds to land the KO, and after what he did to Sakai I actually think this guy might be number 2 behind Ngannou in terms of power.
Ortega/Volk: Good fight. Popular opinion seems to be Volk DEC and Ortega finish. I could see Ortega winning a DEC. Ortega has that aura of unpredictability, even with his standup. I bet him against Zombie, not because I saw a clear way for him to win, but just because I thought the odds were wide. The guy is tough, will fight for your money, and comes on strong later. That Moicano fight, Moicano shot in because he was starting to get pieced up. He is a lot more measured now which is even more dangerous. Don't know if that approach will work against Volk who wants a slow point fighting fight. Ortega's new stance was super wide, Volk will be able to chew those legs up easily. Max addressed the leg kicks in a rematch but they still came back later on as Volk fought his way back. Also Volk won't be able to use his wrestling to solidify rounds. Seen as Ortega gets pushed against the cage he looks for the neck, and Volk nice and short. By the end of tape, I thought if its going to be a 5 round fight, there is a lot of chances for Ortega. Don't see him getting completely neutralized without some sweaty moments. Maybe I chuck a unit on Ortega with Volk DEC hedge, see tomorrow. GG everyone
Marlon/Merab: Think Merab has a tough first-round here. Had to dig through some fights to find footage of Marlons grappling. The dude is very strong and explosive. Even in the second when he was tired he instantly shook off Cejudos shot on him. We seen him take Font down with easy who has solid wrestling. He also has that nasty guillotine, subbing Assuncao is no joke. Merab closes the distance super wild. I faded him against Dodson because of that, and then he came out super cautious. If he does that here might a low volume round where he is eating leg kicks from a distance, bit like Cejudo round 1. He was wilder against Cody and seemed to be a lot more hittable again. Don't feel comfortable with any prices here, DEC is juiced and I don't know how shot Marlon is. Have the tiniest sprinkle on Moraes RD1, and will probably just live bet after.
Hooker/Nasrat: I will say again I'm not the best at capping standup fights. But I have a few questions about Nasrat. Who is the best striker he has faced, Dober? And then Gouti, Jaquim? That Dober fight left a bad taste in my mouth, the moment seemed too big for him, and ever since that fight he dosent seems to have that same aura about him. I still have questions about his chin, how he will handle war, and being the nail. I know Hooker can take it from the best. Also think his striking is one level above. The accuracy, calf kicks, knees, counters going backward, power. Nasrat cant fight backward and uses a high guard. He is a southpaw but we saw Hooker use the calf kick to the inside against Proier who is also a southpaw. Im not 100% even though I have a unit on Hooker, but what I feel might happen is Hookers experience, power and durability could get him a win here in a close fight or he runs away with it and dominates.
Blaydes/Rozenstruik: Not going too deep into this. Watched a couple of fights to refresh my memory. I would hammer Blaydes in every fight, an explosive wrestler at HW with cardio and a good chin, what could go wrong. Didn't bet him in Lewis fight but I bet the over, which sucked balls. A lot of the time Blaydes' entries are pretty average. He couldn't take down Lewis which is embarrassing or JDS. Rozenstruik is improving, he might get him down but I dont think he can hold him down. Either way odds are too juiced, Rozenstruik could have 3 rounds to land the KO, and after what he did to Sakai I actually think this guy might be number 2 behind Ngannou in terms of power.
Ortega/Volk: Good fight. Popular opinion seems to be Volk DEC and Ortega finish. I could see Ortega winning a DEC. Ortega has that aura of unpredictability, even with his standup. I bet him against Zombie, not because I saw a clear way for him to win, but just because I thought the odds were wide. The guy is tough, will fight for your money, and comes on strong later. That Moicano fight, Moicano shot in because he was starting to get pieced up. He is a lot more measured now which is even more dangerous. Don't know if that approach will work against Volk who wants a slow point fighting fight. Ortega's new stance was super wide, Volk will be able to chew those legs up easily. Max addressed the leg kicks in a rematch but they still came back later on as Volk fought his way back. Also Volk won't be able to use his wrestling to solidify rounds. Seen as Ortega gets pushed against the cage he looks for the neck, and Volk nice and short. By the end of tape, I thought if its going to be a 5 round fight, there is a lot of chances for Ortega. Don't see him getting completely neutralized without some sweaty moments. Maybe I chuck a unit on Ortega with Volk DEC hedge, see tomorrow. GG everyone
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Okay, fair enough. 3rd. lolDid you see Cain vs JDS 2?
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Omar Morales: This is more of a fade on JSP as Omar Morales is a guy I’ve been quite high on as he trains out of ATT and he fights usually towards the decision (betting value for gtd). This may very well be a sucker bet but Omar Morales Unanimous decision at +240 sounds like a good bet because from what I have seen from JSP, I think he will have a very hard time winning rounds against Morales on the feet unless he takes Morales to his butt. I favor Morales’ high level to outclass JSP towards a decision.
Merab: Once again, this is a fade on Marlon. It’s hard to say that this is a step down in competition for Marlon because Merab has some of the best wrestling and pace in the division which is a weakness of Marlon. Marlon shot in for a takedown against Rob, but that amounted to nothing as Marlon doesn’t have any top game and he probably gassed going for that… You know, Merab is pretty live for a finish here because Marlon just likes to expend all his energy out there and die on his shield, but what kind of finishing potential does Merab have? Dude has no subs and unless Marlon completely gasses in the 3rd and Merab just bludgeons him until the ref stops, I don’t see many ways Merab finishes Marlon. I don’t think there is any dog money on Marlon, he has a small chance in round 1, if this fight goes past round 1 Merab will look like a -500…
Andrade: I’m not the biggest fan of calvillo and Andrade counters Calvillos strengths here. Calvillo always relies on getting top position but I think Andrade is too much of a unit and will pretty much out muscle Calvillo in the clinch and on the ground. Think this fight will have Jessica on top winning with ride time. Calvillo is tough enough to survive Jessica, +150 on Andrade ITD is wide IMO because of that.
hooker: I’m just not too impressed with Nasrat and the news of his mom dying I feel should hamper Nasrat. With visa issues and all, I feel like it will be in Nasrats best interest to play it safe. Nasrat pretty much relies on that left hand/hook and I think a guy like hooker will get an easy read on that. We saw what happened when Nasrat got paired up with Dober… once again, I like Hooker by UD
SHEVCHENKO: the only way Lauren Murphy wins is by doing what Jennifer Maia did and try to just get in like a cage push war. Not too much to say about this fight, Murphy is tough but shev is shev. I like shev by distance at dog odds.
Lawler vs Diaz: the only bet to make here is the over and FGTD, betting on either dude is like betting on a woman’s contender series fight.
the main event: as much as I think Volk is a safe bet, Ortega is knocking at that door. He’s not like Till, Ortega has some serious BJJ skill and he did look incredible against TKZ. Dog or pass for me and yeah this fight can end inside the distance. Think Ortega by sub will be extra live because Volk is a shorter guy. Ortega ain’t clamping onto holloway or the submission specialist TKZ, but short, rugby player Volk? I think Ortega could latch onto a standing guillotine or any type of front headlock choke. Not to mention the t-city!!!
incredible night of fights.
I’ll be looking forward to probably parlay these picks!
Merab: Once again, this is a fade on Marlon. It’s hard to say that this is a step down in competition for Marlon because Merab has some of the best wrestling and pace in the division which is a weakness of Marlon. Marlon shot in for a takedown against Rob, but that amounted to nothing as Marlon doesn’t have any top game and he probably gassed going for that… You know, Merab is pretty live for a finish here because Marlon just likes to expend all his energy out there and die on his shield, but what kind of finishing potential does Merab have? Dude has no subs and unless Marlon completely gasses in the 3rd and Merab just bludgeons him until the ref stops, I don’t see many ways Merab finishes Marlon. I don’t think there is any dog money on Marlon, he has a small chance in round 1, if this fight goes past round 1 Merab will look like a -500…
Andrade: I’m not the biggest fan of calvillo and Andrade counters Calvillos strengths here. Calvillo always relies on getting top position but I think Andrade is too much of a unit and will pretty much out muscle Calvillo in the clinch and on the ground. Think this fight will have Jessica on top winning with ride time. Calvillo is tough enough to survive Jessica, +150 on Andrade ITD is wide IMO because of that.
hooker: I’m just not too impressed with Nasrat and the news of his mom dying I feel should hamper Nasrat. With visa issues and all, I feel like it will be in Nasrats best interest to play it safe. Nasrat pretty much relies on that left hand/hook and I think a guy like hooker will get an easy read on that. We saw what happened when Nasrat got paired up with Dober… once again, I like Hooker by UD
SHEVCHENKO: the only way Lauren Murphy wins is by doing what Jennifer Maia did and try to just get in like a cage push war. Not too much to say about this fight, Murphy is tough but shev is shev. I like shev by distance at dog odds.
Lawler vs Diaz: the only bet to make here is the over and FGTD, betting on either dude is like betting on a woman’s contender series fight.
the main event: as much as I think Volk is a safe bet, Ortega is knocking at that door. He’s not like Till, Ortega has some serious BJJ skill and he did look incredible against TKZ. Dog or pass for me and yeah this fight can end inside the distance. Think Ortega by sub will be extra live because Volk is a shorter guy. Ortega ain’t clamping onto holloway or the submission specialist TKZ, but short, rugby player Volk? I think Ortega could latch onto a standing guillotine or any type of front headlock choke. Not to mention the t-city!!!
incredible night of fights.
I’ll be looking forward to probably parlay these picks!
D
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I was actually going off of memory, as I haven't rewatched that fight because I thought it was fresh in my head.
You're right, I remembered who I thought was Rose being on top in open guard in the third round, but it was Andrade on top.
I still think the price on Andrade is way too high, and this is coming from someone who bet on Chook to beat Calvillo.
Andrade is a small flyweight. Calvillo has a huge edge if she can force any grappling exchanges. Calvillo doesn't have the best offensive TDs by any means, but at some point I see this fight ending up on the ground.
I feel like so many people are throwing Merab and Andrade into multiple parlays, and they're going to get burned. Both price tags are way off.
If you got Merab when it was a pick'em where it opened, or close to it, good. But if you're laying -240 on Merab and Andrade...good luck. Neither deserve to be that chalky.
Edit: just went to the official bets page to add a few of mine in, and someone has a Merab/Andrade parlay. I was not making this post to call anyone out.
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I don't like this card that much. Merab line is wide, Blaydes line is wide, Andrade line is wide, Volkanovski line is wide and Santos line is wide, but I favor all 5 to win. I don't like to bet pure value if I don't think the fighter will win and Joey Oddessa says the same thing. Screw the math; this sport's too high variance for me to have confidence in anything except a range.
Pearce is so weird on the feet that it's hard to know how he'll do. His volume is high, but he gets hit. Morales is much more technical with good hands, but Pearce seems to have a solid chin. Pearce looks like a purple belt level BJJ guy with decent high school level wrestling who likes top control GnP. I like over 2.5. I do favor Morales to keep it standing and win, but if he slows enough he could lose or get finished late. Morales also slows a lot when he grapples which I don't think he'll do here, but he will be defending tds so who knows if he tries to reverse it and burns out faster. Morales is about a purple belt in BJJ as well so I doubt he gets subbed or gets a sub (his black belt IS NOT in bjj). Morales DEC is too low for me.
Semelsberger should cruise, but not touching it.
Under 2.5 in Medic/Turner if you can get it. Really doesn't make sense to have the over under at 2.5.
Not touching Maximov/Brundage. Good luck, degens.
Santos is getting too much love here and I don't understand it unless it's a value trap. Her showing up with 4 weeks for a camp is gonna tax her a bit and anything over -200 is nuts. Modafferi was prepping for 3 rounds of fighting off her back so she'll be ready for Santos' tds, but maybe not so ready for the striking. I do like over 2.5, FGTD and Santos DEC, but the latter small as Modafferi upsets a lot of people. Modafferi is hard to finish on the feet and will be strong defensively off her back despite losing in those positions. Santos is not getting tko'd and her ability to finish via GnP or on the feet is questionable. Really, really doubt Santos subs Modafferi. Modafferi SUB +1200 seems a little off, but only a small play as Robertson tried a lot and couldn't get much done.
Gonna avoid Shamil as I think he'll win, but Daukaus can crack. Not risking anything on a 265 fight like this.
Hooker seems a cut above Nasrat. Nasrat is almost one dimensional, but his hands are fast and he will land a lot. Hooker is super durable even with the beatdowns and he looked sharp in rd1 against Poirier who is obviously leagues above Nasrat. I think Hooker wins with range and sharp straights plus he has some wrestling and clinch skills that can control Nasrat once Hooker starts to slow in 2 and 3. I like the over 2.5 and Hooker DEC small as I think Hooker could land some hard shots and finish Nasrat. Nasrat DEC is the only way he wins unless Hooker's chin is completely shot (doubt it, Chandler hits way harder than Nasrat). I'll probably regret not going heavier on Hooker at -145.
Moraes TKO/ITD and Merab DEC are the only ways I'd play and only at plus money. Moraes hasn't faced a ton of wrestlers who constantly pursued tds and the clinch and he has cardio issues so I doubt he can win a DEC.
I don't think Calvillo will keep Andrade off her or keep Andrade down even if she gets it down. Andrade sometimes gives up her back when she gets up and that could give Calvillo a chance to take control for long enough to win a round. I don't think Calvillo subs or tkos and I doubt Andrade subs. Andrade TKO is ok. If you can get a good price like -230-240 then I like Andrade.
I don't like the over or under 1.5 in a 265 fight with Blaydes having such a dominant style advantage, but such an obvious way to lose. He has finished a lot of people in under 1.5 and Rozenstruik is garbage off his back. This is the best wrestler Rozenstruik has faced and if Overeem could get him down then he's probably going down quick. Blaydes has ok hands and moves his head well, but if he boxes for any length of time he's dumb af. Blaydes should win, but his ML is unplayable. Maybe Blaydes TKO and Rozenstruik TKO. FDGTD seems ok. Probably gonna pass. Live betting if it's a staring match.
With all the nonsense, Lawler is the only side. Not betting that fight.
Shevchenko TKO or Fight doesn't start round 4 seem like good plays. I think the over under is correct and while I favor the under, it's not high enough for me. Maia is better than Murphy at everything and the only reason Shevchenko didn't finish her was the injury. Total squash match.
I like over 4.5 in the main. Hard to predict how Ortega will look and he usually takes a lot of shots. The way Ortega throws jabs from either side is gonna ruin him early and cost him later in the fight. Jung also looked bad in their fight and Ortega still couldn't finish him. Neither has chin or cardio issues so the only chance I see for a finish is Ortega SUB which I've seen at +550. Volkanovski has good 1-2s and the reach adv with solid gameplans so he has all the tools to win. Volkanovski DEC and Ortega DEC are ok.
Pearce is so weird on the feet that it's hard to know how he'll do. His volume is high, but he gets hit. Morales is much more technical with good hands, but Pearce seems to have a solid chin. Pearce looks like a purple belt level BJJ guy with decent high school level wrestling who likes top control GnP. I like over 2.5. I do favor Morales to keep it standing and win, but if he slows enough he could lose or get finished late. Morales also slows a lot when he grapples which I don't think he'll do here, but he will be defending tds so who knows if he tries to reverse it and burns out faster. Morales is about a purple belt in BJJ as well so I doubt he gets subbed or gets a sub (his black belt IS NOT in bjj). Morales DEC is too low for me.
Semelsberger should cruise, but not touching it.
Under 2.5 in Medic/Turner if you can get it. Really doesn't make sense to have the over under at 2.5.
Not touching Maximov/Brundage. Good luck, degens.
Santos is getting too much love here and I don't understand it unless it's a value trap. Her showing up with 4 weeks for a camp is gonna tax her a bit and anything over -200 is nuts. Modafferi was prepping for 3 rounds of fighting off her back so she'll be ready for Santos' tds, but maybe not so ready for the striking. I do like over 2.5, FGTD and Santos DEC, but the latter small as Modafferi upsets a lot of people. Modafferi is hard to finish on the feet and will be strong defensively off her back despite losing in those positions. Santos is not getting tko'd and her ability to finish via GnP or on the feet is questionable. Really, really doubt Santos subs Modafferi. Modafferi SUB +1200 seems a little off, but only a small play as Robertson tried a lot and couldn't get much done.
Gonna avoid Shamil as I think he'll win, but Daukaus can crack. Not risking anything on a 265 fight like this.
Hooker seems a cut above Nasrat. Nasrat is almost one dimensional, but his hands are fast and he will land a lot. Hooker is super durable even with the beatdowns and he looked sharp in rd1 against Poirier who is obviously leagues above Nasrat. I think Hooker wins with range and sharp straights plus he has some wrestling and clinch skills that can control Nasrat once Hooker starts to slow in 2 and 3. I like the over 2.5 and Hooker DEC small as I think Hooker could land some hard shots and finish Nasrat. Nasrat DEC is the only way he wins unless Hooker's chin is completely shot (doubt it, Chandler hits way harder than Nasrat). I'll probably regret not going heavier on Hooker at -145.
Moraes TKO/ITD and Merab DEC are the only ways I'd play and only at plus money. Moraes hasn't faced a ton of wrestlers who constantly pursued tds and the clinch and he has cardio issues so I doubt he can win a DEC.
I don't think Calvillo will keep Andrade off her or keep Andrade down even if she gets it down. Andrade sometimes gives up her back when she gets up and that could give Calvillo a chance to take control for long enough to win a round. I don't think Calvillo subs or tkos and I doubt Andrade subs. Andrade TKO is ok. If you can get a good price like -230-240 then I like Andrade.
I don't like the over or under 1.5 in a 265 fight with Blaydes having such a dominant style advantage, but such an obvious way to lose. He has finished a lot of people in under 1.5 and Rozenstruik is garbage off his back. This is the best wrestler Rozenstruik has faced and if Overeem could get him down then he's probably going down quick. Blaydes has ok hands and moves his head well, but if he boxes for any length of time he's dumb af. Blaydes should win, but his ML is unplayable. Maybe Blaydes TKO and Rozenstruik TKO. FDGTD seems ok. Probably gonna pass. Live betting if it's a staring match.
With all the nonsense, Lawler is the only side. Not betting that fight.
Shevchenko TKO or Fight doesn't start round 4 seem like good plays. I think the over under is correct and while I favor the under, it's not high enough for me. Maia is better than Murphy at everything and the only reason Shevchenko didn't finish her was the injury. Total squash match.
I like over 4.5 in the main. Hard to predict how Ortega will look and he usually takes a lot of shots. The way Ortega throws jabs from either side is gonna ruin him early and cost him later in the fight. Jung also looked bad in their fight and Ortega still couldn't finish him. Neither has chin or cardio issues so the only chance I see for a finish is Ortega SUB which I've seen at +550. Volkanovski has good 1-2s and the reach adv with solid gameplans so he has all the tools to win. Volkanovski DEC and Ortega DEC are ok.
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I too thought about her dec, but her ML is likely the best play. If you play her dec you likely think it´ll be a standup fight, as Calvillo seems to love standup fights. She has however a true killer instinct when the fight hits the ground, and in my opinion world class BJJ. She´s very dangerous, and if she does get it down and fights smart she very likely could finnish it as Andrade is just so reckless and purely relies on her strength. Calvillo is game and is not afraid. She had a tough fight Marina, and with Andrade everyone knows what she will do. She´ll walk forward, keep the pressure and just follow you. The problem for me with Calvillo is that she does not have the best fight IQ, and she may not take the smartest approach to this fight. That said I don´t see how anyone can play Andrade ML here. Calvillo does not have the best takedowns though, but if she can just get it down once thats very likely a round in the back or finish.
Calvillo dec prop definitely has value so you made a very good bet. But i´d probably split it in someway. But as a prop bet its very solid. I´m likely sticking to Calvillo ML and then for livebet i´m interested in her dec line after round 1.
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this was a terrible, terrible beating as well. Teixeira vs Maldonado.
Back on topic, weigh ins done and everyone looked fine. I don’t see Andrade having much trouble with Calvillo. Murphy will get demolished as is tradition in Chef Shenko fights.
No idea how Lawler/Diaz plays out. Then fan in me says we’ll get a good back and forth fight.. Not holding my breath.
Best of luck to you sherbros with the bets.
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Under 2.5 round
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this was a terrible, terrible beating as well. Teixeira vs Maldonado.
Back on topic, weigh ins done and everyone looked fine. I don’t see Andrade having much trouble with Calvillo. Murphy will get demolished as is tradition in Chef Shenko fights.
No idea how Lawler/Diaz plays out. Then fan in me says we’ll get a good back and forth fight.. Not holding my breath.
Best of luck to you sherbros with the bets.
Shit and how about Glover vs Lionheart? Glover is a bad bad man, dude has put some prolonged beatings on people.
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You have a guy that you "think will win" (meaning that even if you only VERY slightly favor him, you still see him as -115 or -120 at worst) who's around +175 that you aren't gonna bet because it's HW??
I don't really understand that at all. That's a multiple unit play for most of us. Weird.
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I'm not seeing my guy @Kamais_Ookin posting at all here...hope all is well man.
Hopefully someone else can send me some tickets tonight for the main card...
@guesswhoseback you usually have an extra ticket I think, right? Would appreciate throwing it my way tonight!
Hopefully someone else can send me some tickets tonight for the main card...
@guesswhoseback you usually have an extra ticket I think, right? Would appreciate throwing it my way tonight!
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I’m not playing him because I have the same concerns but I just think he’s levels above Nas
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You'd play multiple units on a 40 year old 265er coming off a 2 year layoff against a 265er with proven 1st round TKO power who's also taking a big step up? Absolute madman. It's a pick 'em fight to me so the value is on Shamil and I favor him to win, but I don't like the risk profile of this fight. Do you bet every fight on every card? I respect your picks and analysis, but there's no way I'd risk it. I could see Shamil winning by TKO or DEC so I would have to play ML. You could go Shamil ML with Daukaus TKO, but the difference isn't big enough for me to want to hedge as it would be shit ROI and there are better spots.
Take the Merab/Moraes fight. Moraes ITD is +440, TKO is +500 and the early lines had Merab DEC +110; that's a 4x difference and worth a hedge.
EDIT: I'm not the best at estimating lines so I usually go with a range of potential values. What I and others think the fight should be and what it actually looks like on fight night are very often two different things. Shamil could look like the fav or could get starched early and while I think he looks like the fav, I'm not putting money on it. Daukaus is really unproven especially in 2 and 3 in the UFC while Shamil tends to finish in those rounds or take it long and win.
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UFC 266: Volkanovski vs Ortega Prelims
Morales vs Pearce
Morales answers the question of what a Sanford MMA fighter looks like when they don’t wrestle. Plodding, somewhat powerful, rote counterstriker. Outside of Omar’s constant soft naked leg kicks, he mostly throws heat but does little to press the action. Instead he lulls the opposite fighter into a slow paced kickboxing match. I dislike fighters of this mold because they tend to have really close fights, habitually. It’s difficult to win rounds at the UFC level without either grappling or activity, especially against fighters that’ll bring volume.
Inversely I Love betting on fighters like Pearce. All action, good cardio and big on mixing striking with grappling. These are the kind of fighters that go out there for your money. I think what is especially helpful is Morales’s naked kicks giving Pearce ample opportunities to convert one into a takedown. Pearce is very hittable and could definitely walk into some hot shit here on the counter but I think it’s more likely that he does enough to win 2 out of 3 rounds. Pearce is the pick.
Semelsberger vs Sano
Guy hasn’t fought in like 5 years. Big pass.
Maximov vs Brundage
Two grapplers here, though I think Maximov accepts that title significantly more than Brundage. Maximov is coming out to wrestle, scramble, snatch a sub and turn this into a combat jiujitsu match as fast as possible. If he gets stuffed, he’s chain wrestling and if it hits the mat he’s willing to take risks for the finish. We’ve seen him outgrapple significantly larger fighters, which is always impressive and he regularly competes in SUG. He operates almost entirely out of single leg chains and is a little too loose in top position but manages to continually float around, though he is apt to be reversed. Even then, the kid is an absolute grinder and immediately gets back on the reshot or scramble for position.
Brundage has a little bit more striker in him but we shouldn’t overstate what that is. He’s very willing to lunge, blindly flurry, keep his hands low with no head movement and is pretty stiff on the feet. If it was just a means to an end in implementing his power wrestling game, I’d be more okay with it but if he’s looking to kickbox, he’s gonna have problems at this level. He’s opposite from Maximov in that he’s a straight forward blast double guy with heavy pressure and is looking to deal damage. I don’t think he wants to hang with Maximov in scrambles and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he opted to just sprawl and brawl in this matchup.
This could go a few ways as I don’t think either of these fighters are that good, though I think Maximov has more potential currently based on his skillset and gameplan. We might see Brundage take a leap forward striking and continually stuff Maximov while teeing him up. We could see Brundage come out and wrestle here and Maximov might BJJ it up off his back too long, giving up rounds. Finally, we could see Maximov implement his chain wrestling gameplan and slowly attrition Brundage into dust, after having a close first round.
I think the 3rd route is most likely based on Brundage’s recent weak striking showings, suspect cardio and Maximov’s absolute insistence that this be a grappling affair. While Brundage could just outwrestle him here, I don’t see it happening with the pace and style gap. It’s just very hard to hold down guys like Maximov that continually seek to scramble. At some point or another Brundage is getting put on his back, while he could certainly get up, it’s gonna drain his cardio and that’s not what you want against a cardio freak like Maximov. Maximov is the pick.
Medic vs Turner
Michael Bisping once called Jalin Turner a skilled, technical, kickboxer. I gotta disagree with him there. Jalin does his absolute best work in the clinch, where he really leverages his height well. Nasty cutting elbows, rising knees and powerful frames with surprisingly sharp pocket pivots. You don’t see pivots that often at that height and even though they’re not used often, it’s still pretty fantastic that he has it. I’m also impressed by how his striking has come along. He went from a pawing, lazy striker that would feint into the clinch into a powerful, if not rote kickboxing front runner. He’s got excellent speed and power, good straight punches and an okay kicking game. I do think his feet can get really lazy though, especially when he’s really looking to box. His defense leaves a lot to be desired as well and depends on his reflexes, which is why he’s so available to the body and legs. He has some moments of appearing very slick but inversely when pressed or tired we can see his game start to fall apart and devolve into single shots and try to out-athlete the other fighter.
Medic is genuinely a very skilled, technical, kickboxer. His sense of timing and range is impeccable and his defense consists of footwork, head movement, counter traps and feints. He really specializes in range probing and waiting for opportunities to snipe with his effortless power. Most impressive to me is his ability to chain a variety of strikes together with power, speed and efficiency. I couldn’t tell you what his game looks like late as none of his fights go late. What I can tell you is that he can sees fights very well from moment to moment and knows when to disengage and when to strike, which is something very rare in this sport.
I think Turners got a tough road here that’s only gonna get harder as the fight goes on. He’s the better athlete but I don’t think it’s by much. Both fighters have easy power and speed, though Jalin is definitely faster, but Medic has the much more developed striking game. What really hurts Turner here is his footwork and lack of technical defense. Medic will have opportunities to tag his body and legs all day while Turner is likely to struggle enforcing his inside game. I don’t think Turner has the ability to take this to the floor either. His best chance is an early finish with a powerful straight but that’s gonna be very hard to come by and only get more difficult with time. While I don’t know Uros’s cardio, I do know Turner’s and expect him to look tired late. Medic very well could look tired then as well but even if that ends up being the case, the more technical fighter will benefit from dual fatigue. Medic is the pick.
Modafferi vs Santos
Could Roxanne feasibly win this fight? If she fought the very best fight of her life. Do I expect her to win this fight? Not even a little. She’s got wonky movement and some opportunistic takedowns but outside of that, there’s nothing. Her strikes carry zero power, she doesn’t threaten on the ground and she’s at a massive athletic disadvantage. I don’t see her being able to floor Santos and if she can’t, she’s gonna get bullied on the feet. This is a really rough fight to give Roxanne as she breaks the WMMA record for fights. It’ll be a little competitive as long as Roxanne can sneak around and throw arm punches but at some point Santos is gonna wrangle her. Santos is the pick.
Abdurakhimov vs Daukaus
Don’t like the level of recent tape available for this one, especially at this line with 2 low level heavyweights. Pass.
Hooker vs Haqparast
Boxer vs kickboxer matchup and one I have the kickboxer coming out on top. Hooker, for all the grief his defense gets, really isn’t terrible defensively. He more so is just terrible at getting his hands up and can be sucked in to boxing range where his momentum gets caught forward more often than it should. When he’s fighting in balance, he has very slick head movement and is incredibly adapt at understanding range and sliding just outside of strikes. This is emphasized by his use of range weapons and typically having a reach advantage. He also gives his opponents a ton to think about with very active feinting and striking at all levels. He’s just a hard kickboxing fight for the most part. He circles out well, has a versatile jab that he uses purposefully, builds his reads as a fight goes on, hits hard and understands the advantages his frame provides in the clinch. While he isn’t what I would call an adapt clinch fighter, he knows how to use it opportunistically, snatching a quick plum and driving a shot or two before framing off and sliding out. He’s a striker that you’re gonna need some big advantages somewhere to decisively beat.
I don’t think Haq has those advantages. A high guard boxer looking optimally to sprawl and swarm fighters with his blinding speed. He has a pretty disgusting uppercut and a decent jab but is wholly a boxer, something that is very difficult to accomplish in the modern UFC. Furthermore outside of his uppercut, his power shots are lunging and sloppy. Integrated into a swarmer style that is effective when he can really get in an opponent's teeth, but will struggle with how still his head is during them against more adept strikers. Haq defensively, when not in wild swinging mode, is very solid. He has nice lateral head movement, keeps a tight guard and returns fire to dissuade the opponents offense. He can’t mix the two though and is being offensive or defensive with little craft marrying the two.
Ultimately I think Haq is just out of his depth in this fight. Many of his tools such as his heavy lead leg stance, his directional slips and his high guard are gonna act as weaknesses in this matchup. The high guard especially is gonna leave his body and legs vulnerable and act as a tell when he wants to resume offense, leaving him open to Hooker’s counters. As well, his lateral shifts and dips could easily lead him into Hookers patented rising knee or a head kick. Most damning though is simply the lack of variety he’s bringing to the table. Hooker doesn’t have to worry about effective kicking or takedowns on top of Haq lacking the footwork to get in close without exploding. While Hooker could be caught flat footed in an exchange and floored, I just don’t personally see it. I think Hooker tee’s him up at range and maybe eats a couple power shots on the way to a dominant win. Hooker is the pick.
Marlon vs Dvalishvilli
Do you think Marlon KO’s Merab? It’s definitely possible. Merab isn’t particularly defensively sound and can certainly be timed coming in. Marlon hits hard, fast and thrives as an opportunistic sniper. He isn’t exactly a round winner with a volume that fluctuates though and his gast tank can be taxed by him throwing every shot with fight ending purpose. I personally don’t like playing fighters that I think only have a KO chance. I also don’t think his upright stance or loaded up bombs bode well for staying on the feet. While he could potentially get up a couple of times, I have to feel like Merab will just keeping coming and coming. Maybe Marlon steals the first or even gets the KO, but I think Merab by wrestlefuck attrition is the most likely outcome. Merab is the pick.
Morales vs Pearce
Morales answers the question of what a Sanford MMA fighter looks like when they don’t wrestle. Plodding, somewhat powerful, rote counterstriker. Outside of Omar’s constant soft naked leg kicks, he mostly throws heat but does little to press the action. Instead he lulls the opposite fighter into a slow paced kickboxing match. I dislike fighters of this mold because they tend to have really close fights, habitually. It’s difficult to win rounds at the UFC level without either grappling or activity, especially against fighters that’ll bring volume.
Inversely I Love betting on fighters like Pearce. All action, good cardio and big on mixing striking with grappling. These are the kind of fighters that go out there for your money. I think what is especially helpful is Morales’s naked kicks giving Pearce ample opportunities to convert one into a takedown. Pearce is very hittable and could definitely walk into some hot shit here on the counter but I think it’s more likely that he does enough to win 2 out of 3 rounds. Pearce is the pick.
Semelsberger vs Sano
Guy hasn’t fought in like 5 years. Big pass.
Maximov vs Brundage
Two grapplers here, though I think Maximov accepts that title significantly more than Brundage. Maximov is coming out to wrestle, scramble, snatch a sub and turn this into a combat jiujitsu match as fast as possible. If he gets stuffed, he’s chain wrestling and if it hits the mat he’s willing to take risks for the finish. We’ve seen him outgrapple significantly larger fighters, which is always impressive and he regularly competes in SUG. He operates almost entirely out of single leg chains and is a little too loose in top position but manages to continually float around, though he is apt to be reversed. Even then, the kid is an absolute grinder and immediately gets back on the reshot or scramble for position.
Brundage has a little bit more striker in him but we shouldn’t overstate what that is. He’s very willing to lunge, blindly flurry, keep his hands low with no head movement and is pretty stiff on the feet. If it was just a means to an end in implementing his power wrestling game, I’d be more okay with it but if he’s looking to kickbox, he’s gonna have problems at this level. He’s opposite from Maximov in that he’s a straight forward blast double guy with heavy pressure and is looking to deal damage. I don’t think he wants to hang with Maximov in scrambles and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he opted to just sprawl and brawl in this matchup.
This could go a few ways as I don’t think either of these fighters are that good, though I think Maximov has more potential currently based on his skillset and gameplan. We might see Brundage take a leap forward striking and continually stuff Maximov while teeing him up. We could see Brundage come out and wrestle here and Maximov might BJJ it up off his back too long, giving up rounds. Finally, we could see Maximov implement his chain wrestling gameplan and slowly attrition Brundage into dust, after having a close first round.
I think the 3rd route is most likely based on Brundage’s recent weak striking showings, suspect cardio and Maximov’s absolute insistence that this be a grappling affair. While Brundage could just outwrestle him here, I don’t see it happening with the pace and style gap. It’s just very hard to hold down guys like Maximov that continually seek to scramble. At some point or another Brundage is getting put on his back, while he could certainly get up, it’s gonna drain his cardio and that’s not what you want against a cardio freak like Maximov. Maximov is the pick.
Medic vs Turner
Michael Bisping once called Jalin Turner a skilled, technical, kickboxer. I gotta disagree with him there. Jalin does his absolute best work in the clinch, where he really leverages his height well. Nasty cutting elbows, rising knees and powerful frames with surprisingly sharp pocket pivots. You don’t see pivots that often at that height and even though they’re not used often, it’s still pretty fantastic that he has it. I’m also impressed by how his striking has come along. He went from a pawing, lazy striker that would feint into the clinch into a powerful, if not rote kickboxing front runner. He’s got excellent speed and power, good straight punches and an okay kicking game. I do think his feet can get really lazy though, especially when he’s really looking to box. His defense leaves a lot to be desired as well and depends on his reflexes, which is why he’s so available to the body and legs. He has some moments of appearing very slick but inversely when pressed or tired we can see his game start to fall apart and devolve into single shots and try to out-athlete the other fighter.
Medic is genuinely a very skilled, technical, kickboxer. His sense of timing and range is impeccable and his defense consists of footwork, head movement, counter traps and feints. He really specializes in range probing and waiting for opportunities to snipe with his effortless power. Most impressive to me is his ability to chain a variety of strikes together with power, speed and efficiency. I couldn’t tell you what his game looks like late as none of his fights go late. What I can tell you is that he can sees fights very well from moment to moment and knows when to disengage and when to strike, which is something very rare in this sport.
I think Turners got a tough road here that’s only gonna get harder as the fight goes on. He’s the better athlete but I don’t think it’s by much. Both fighters have easy power and speed, though Jalin is definitely faster, but Medic has the much more developed striking game. What really hurts Turner here is his footwork and lack of technical defense. Medic will have opportunities to tag his body and legs all day while Turner is likely to struggle enforcing his inside game. I don’t think Turner has the ability to take this to the floor either. His best chance is an early finish with a powerful straight but that’s gonna be very hard to come by and only get more difficult with time. While I don’t know Uros’s cardio, I do know Turner’s and expect him to look tired late. Medic very well could look tired then as well but even if that ends up being the case, the more technical fighter will benefit from dual fatigue. Medic is the pick.
Modafferi vs Santos
Could Roxanne feasibly win this fight? If she fought the very best fight of her life. Do I expect her to win this fight? Not even a little. She’s got wonky movement and some opportunistic takedowns but outside of that, there’s nothing. Her strikes carry zero power, she doesn’t threaten on the ground and she’s at a massive athletic disadvantage. I don’t see her being able to floor Santos and if she can’t, she’s gonna get bullied on the feet. This is a really rough fight to give Roxanne as she breaks the WMMA record for fights. It’ll be a little competitive as long as Roxanne can sneak around and throw arm punches but at some point Santos is gonna wrangle her. Santos is the pick.
Abdurakhimov vs Daukaus
Don’t like the level of recent tape available for this one, especially at this line with 2 low level heavyweights. Pass.
Hooker vs Haqparast
Boxer vs kickboxer matchup and one I have the kickboxer coming out on top. Hooker, for all the grief his defense gets, really isn’t terrible defensively. He more so is just terrible at getting his hands up and can be sucked in to boxing range where his momentum gets caught forward more often than it should. When he’s fighting in balance, he has very slick head movement and is incredibly adapt at understanding range and sliding just outside of strikes. This is emphasized by his use of range weapons and typically having a reach advantage. He also gives his opponents a ton to think about with very active feinting and striking at all levels. He’s just a hard kickboxing fight for the most part. He circles out well, has a versatile jab that he uses purposefully, builds his reads as a fight goes on, hits hard and understands the advantages his frame provides in the clinch. While he isn’t what I would call an adapt clinch fighter, he knows how to use it opportunistically, snatching a quick plum and driving a shot or two before framing off and sliding out. He’s a striker that you’re gonna need some big advantages somewhere to decisively beat.
I don’t think Haq has those advantages. A high guard boxer looking optimally to sprawl and swarm fighters with his blinding speed. He has a pretty disgusting uppercut and a decent jab but is wholly a boxer, something that is very difficult to accomplish in the modern UFC. Furthermore outside of his uppercut, his power shots are lunging and sloppy. Integrated into a swarmer style that is effective when he can really get in an opponent's teeth, but will struggle with how still his head is during them against more adept strikers. Haq defensively, when not in wild swinging mode, is very solid. He has nice lateral head movement, keeps a tight guard and returns fire to dissuade the opponents offense. He can’t mix the two though and is being offensive or defensive with little craft marrying the two.
Ultimately I think Haq is just out of his depth in this fight. Many of his tools such as his heavy lead leg stance, his directional slips and his high guard are gonna act as weaknesses in this matchup. The high guard especially is gonna leave his body and legs vulnerable and act as a tell when he wants to resume offense, leaving him open to Hooker’s counters. As well, his lateral shifts and dips could easily lead him into Hookers patented rising knee or a head kick. Most damning though is simply the lack of variety he’s bringing to the table. Hooker doesn’t have to worry about effective kicking or takedowns on top of Haq lacking the footwork to get in close without exploding. While Hooker could be caught flat footed in an exchange and floored, I just don’t personally see it. I think Hooker tee’s him up at range and maybe eats a couple power shots on the way to a dominant win. Hooker is the pick.
Marlon vs Dvalishvilli
Do you think Marlon KO’s Merab? It’s definitely possible. Merab isn’t particularly defensively sound and can certainly be timed coming in. Marlon hits hard, fast and thrives as an opportunistic sniper. He isn’t exactly a round winner with a volume that fluctuates though and his gast tank can be taxed by him throwing every shot with fight ending purpose. I personally don’t like playing fighters that I think only have a KO chance. I also don’t think his upright stance or loaded up bombs bode well for staying on the feet. While he could potentially get up a couple of times, I have to feel like Merab will just keeping coming and coming. Maybe Marlon steals the first or even gets the KO, but I think Merab by wrestlefuck attrition is the most likely outcome. Merab is the pick.
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UFC 266: Volkanovski vs Ortega Main Card
Andrade vs Calvillo
Up front, I’m taking Calvillo here. Andrade could very easily steamroll her, as she’s known to do, but at this line I can’t ignore a grappling and speed advantage, especially in a 3 round fight. I would argue that Calvillo is a more technical striker as well but who knows what that’s worth against Andrade. Essentially, I’m betting with Andrade’s pathologically forward style and reach disadvantage, she’ll walk into a takedown at least a couple times and that could be all Cynthia needs. As well, despite Andrade taking apart Chook, I don’t think her power is gonna carry over as much at this weight class. It could definitely be enough to slam Cynthia or power out of takedowns, but I don’t think she’s gonna have the same terminator fists she did at straweight, especially since she deeply lacks the craft to set them up. Calvillo is the pick.
Blaydes vs Rozenstruik
Very similar to the Merab/Marlon fight but even more straightforward. On one hand we have a good striker who’s become underrated. Like Marlon he isn’t always a round winner as he’s mostly looking for crisp counters and power shots and on the other side we have a dogged grappler looking to smash. I think Blaydes has an even easier path here as he’s got a big athleticism edge and Roze doesn’t have the takedown defense that Marlon does. Being at HW makes it that much more difficult on the gas tank to be trapped under a 265 pound bear. Roze has a very thin window to end this before it goes south fast. Blaydes is the pick.
Lawler vs Diaz
Of all the fights I would never bet, I would never bet this this most. Pass.
Shevchenko vs Murphy
Shev is gonna win. I have no idea how. Murphy is really tough but also eon’s worse in every way. Who knows how it’ll end? Pass.
Ortega vs Volkanovski
This is a good one, this is a really really good one. This is probably the fight I’ve been most excited for in some time and I don’t expect it to disappoint. Neo-Ortega has developed into an incredibly patient, long striker looking to leverage his power into single shots until he can catch his opponent clean enough for his amazing killer instinct to take over. Still not much of a round winner but he’s certainly improved over his former lackadaisical nonsense. He feints frequently and continues to put range finders out for posts, handtraps and leverages into strikes. As far as grappling is concerned, he’s a savant who’s able to find the bullseye through chaos. This creates a very dangerous clinch zone where he can initiate grappling or throw his brand of unique tide changing power shots. At his core, he’s still the same opportunistic fighter waiting to make big moments happen, but now with an understanding of striking to make it more competitive in the in-between.
Volk is almost the opposite. A fantastic fighter at boxing and probing ranges that throws a lot of less committed strikes in order to win rounds. His feints and footwork are next level making him very difficult to actively track down but his entrances still leave big openings. Despite his reported reach, he still fights like someone at a real length disadvantage and spends an incredible amount of energy trying to create opportunities to crash the pocket. Like many fighters with unorthodox shifts and steps, there’s a degree of smoke and mirrors to what he’s trying to accomplish and only so many positions he can actually launch attacks from, leaving him vulnerable to counter shots when these positions are discovered. While he does pack some heat, I think it’s a little overstated and does require him really loading up into his shots. What makes him particularly formidable though is when you combine his very developed striking game with opportunistic wrestling and some strength in the pocket. This makes a tough fighter to beat that has volume, high and low attacks, is difficult to press if you fall behind, can take a round in a pinch with a takedown and has enough power to threaten if you get lazy or too aggressive.
This is a close fight and I wouldn’t be surprised if Volk was able to just beat Ortega to spots all fight and even scored some takedowns at the end of rounds when the danger was lowest. He’s got more volume, more craft to his game and Ortega 100% invites the takedown, potentially giving up rounds. That said, Ortega has infinitely more effortless power and a more effortless game generally. His new focus on finding holes should show at some point when Volk tries to burst into the pocket or coming over something low power that Ortega doesn’t mind trading for a real shot. More importantly, nothing is really taken from Ortega’s new gameplan here. Volks aggression should allow him to fight on the backfoot, where he wants to be and the danger of his clinch game will likely take away a safety blanket for Volk. While Volk certainly can win, it’s gonna take a high energy gameplan with a lot of moving pieces from start to finish against a fighter who throws in capitalizing on mistakes. Ortega is the pick.
Andrade vs Calvillo
Up front, I’m taking Calvillo here. Andrade could very easily steamroll her, as she’s known to do, but at this line I can’t ignore a grappling and speed advantage, especially in a 3 round fight. I would argue that Calvillo is a more technical striker as well but who knows what that’s worth against Andrade. Essentially, I’m betting with Andrade’s pathologically forward style and reach disadvantage, she’ll walk into a takedown at least a couple times and that could be all Cynthia needs. As well, despite Andrade taking apart Chook, I don’t think her power is gonna carry over as much at this weight class. It could definitely be enough to slam Cynthia or power out of takedowns, but I don’t think she’s gonna have the same terminator fists she did at straweight, especially since she deeply lacks the craft to set them up. Calvillo is the pick.
Blaydes vs Rozenstruik
Very similar to the Merab/Marlon fight but even more straightforward. On one hand we have a good striker who’s become underrated. Like Marlon he isn’t always a round winner as he’s mostly looking for crisp counters and power shots and on the other side we have a dogged grappler looking to smash. I think Blaydes has an even easier path here as he’s got a big athleticism edge and Roze doesn’t have the takedown defense that Marlon does. Being at HW makes it that much more difficult on the gas tank to be trapped under a 265 pound bear. Roze has a very thin window to end this before it goes south fast. Blaydes is the pick.
Lawler vs Diaz
Of all the fights I would never bet, I would never bet this this most. Pass.
Shevchenko vs Murphy
Shev is gonna win. I have no idea how. Murphy is really tough but also eon’s worse in every way. Who knows how it’ll end? Pass.
Ortega vs Volkanovski
This is a good one, this is a really really good one. This is probably the fight I’ve been most excited for in some time and I don’t expect it to disappoint. Neo-Ortega has developed into an incredibly patient, long striker looking to leverage his power into single shots until he can catch his opponent clean enough for his amazing killer instinct to take over. Still not much of a round winner but he’s certainly improved over his former lackadaisical nonsense. He feints frequently and continues to put range finders out for posts, handtraps and leverages into strikes. As far as grappling is concerned, he’s a savant who’s able to find the bullseye through chaos. This creates a very dangerous clinch zone where he can initiate grappling or throw his brand of unique tide changing power shots. At his core, he’s still the same opportunistic fighter waiting to make big moments happen, but now with an understanding of striking to make it more competitive in the in-between.
Volk is almost the opposite. A fantastic fighter at boxing and probing ranges that throws a lot of less committed strikes in order to win rounds. His feints and footwork are next level making him very difficult to actively track down but his entrances still leave big openings. Despite his reported reach, he still fights like someone at a real length disadvantage and spends an incredible amount of energy trying to create opportunities to crash the pocket. Like many fighters with unorthodox shifts and steps, there’s a degree of smoke and mirrors to what he’s trying to accomplish and only so many positions he can actually launch attacks from, leaving him vulnerable to counter shots when these positions are discovered. While he does pack some heat, I think it’s a little overstated and does require him really loading up into his shots. What makes him particularly formidable though is when you combine his very developed striking game with opportunistic wrestling and some strength in the pocket. This makes a tough fighter to beat that has volume, high and low attacks, is difficult to press if you fall behind, can take a round in a pinch with a takedown and has enough power to threaten if you get lazy or too aggressive.
This is a close fight and I wouldn’t be surprised if Volk was able to just beat Ortega to spots all fight and even scored some takedowns at the end of rounds when the danger was lowest. He’s got more volume, more craft to his game and Ortega 100% invites the takedown, potentially giving up rounds. That said, Ortega has infinitely more effortless power and a more effortless game generally. His new focus on finding holes should show at some point when Volk tries to burst into the pocket or coming over something low power that Ortega doesn’t mind trading for a real shot. More importantly, nothing is really taken from Ortega’s new gameplan here. Volks aggression should allow him to fight on the backfoot, where he wants to be and the danger of his clinch game will likely take away a safety blanket for Volk. While Volk certainly can win, it’s gonna take a high energy gameplan with a lot of moving pieces from start to finish against a fighter who throws in capitalizing on mistakes. Ortega is the pick.
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Well...the short answer is no I don't bet close to every fight but if I see a guy at +175 that I think has roughly a 50% chance of winning...hell yeah I bet him. The other factors (his age, who he's fighting, etc) would all already be factored into what chance I give him of winning. I'm not throwing a rough guess as to his chances and THEN looking at all the reasons he may not win. Those are already baked in to how I cap the fight.
If your take is "Well I think it's a coin toss but I don't trust my capping or my read at all on this particular fight so I'm gonna pass..." that's a little different. I get that. But if you've really broken it down and truly believe it's around a coin toss, I can't imagine not playing a guy at almost 2-1 odds.
