UFC 266 - Volkanovski vs Ortega - Offical discussion

[mkess101]

Watching a bit of Calvillo...her takedowns are kinda overrated imo. She's not terrible with them, but she relies a decent amount on brute strength and staying with it over technique. I think (at least the first two rounds), she's gonna have a damn hard time putting Andrade on her back. Cynthia also has defensive striking lapses. She covers them up okay and against almost any WMMA opponent she's not in danger of really eating true bombs. Not the case here. One lapse and she could be staring up at the lights wondering what happened.

I like Andrade to win here, but too juicy. Maybe a bit on her KO prop...

 

[guesswhoseback]

I'm not seeing my guy @Kamais_Ookin posting at all here...hope all is well man.

Hopefully someone else can send me some tickets tonight for the main card...

@guesswhoseback you usually have an extra ticket I think, right? Would appreciate throwing it my way tonight!

What im thinking your meaning tickets as in Streams because if you talking like actucal tickets lol no never even been to an event

 

[rille31]

Well...the short answer is no I don't bet close to every fight but if I see a guy at +175 that I think has roughly a 50% chance of winning...hell yeah I bet him. The other factors (his age, who he's fighting, etc) would all already be factored into what chance I give him of winning. I'm not throwing a rough guess as to his chances and THEN looking at all the reasons he may not win. Those are already baked in to how I cap the fight.

If your take is "Well I think it's a coin toss but I don't trust my capping or my read at all on this particular fight so I'm gonna pass..." that's a little different. I get that. But if you've really broken it down and truly believe it's around a coin toss, I can't imagine not playing a guy at almost 2-1 odds.

this

 

[rille31]

What im thinking your meaning tickets as in Streams because if you talking like actucal tickets lol no never even been to an event

Tickets bruuh

 

[SolarSeiko]

I just watched the weigh ins and that bum Martin sano did his best diaz bro impression from 2014. Dude look terrified at the staredown with semelsberger. Unfortunately the odds aren't the greatest, semelsberger itd is like - 200

 

[sonhow]

What im thinking your meaning tickets as in Streams because if you talking like actucal tickets lol no never even been to an event

And I'm wondering if there is a ticket to England with a certain hw championship boxing fight.

 

[Orion]

Everyone made weight.

Murphy looks like a white walker.

Can't wait to lose my money on Shev ITD when this goes 5 rounds somehow.

 

[guesswhoseback]

And I'm wondering if there is a ticket to England with a certain hw championship boxing fight.

LOl theres tickets for everything hit me up and I got you

 

[mkess101]

What im thinking your meaning tickets as in Streams because if you talking like actucal tickets lol no never even been to an event

Yup streams, it's code haha. Super sneaky I am.

 

[TheLastOlympian07]

its fight time bros

 

[HoeBrogan]

I strongly considered Morales but he's a different fighter on the back foot and Pearce brings the pressure. Reminds me of Benitez/Quarantillo. Passing here.

I took a little over a unit on Medic/Turner U2.5 -132, very surprised by this price.

thank you sir!

 

[The Eagle]

Lol at all you betting UFC experts. I knew when I saw everyone was on Medic hype train to take Turner. Thank you!

 

[bambammccoy]

Shevchenko beats Murphy
Merab beats Marlon
Andrade beats Cynthia
Santos beats Roxanne

Considering adding Diaz to that list of official picks.

Not the most risk taking picks but my accuracy has been around 78-80% in my last 30ish picks since UFC 264.

Great night of fights for sure

 

[HockeyBjj]

What a night for the favorites.

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

Well...the short answer is no I don't bet close to every fight but if I see a guy at +175 that I think has roughly a 50% chance of winning...hell yeah I bet him. The other factors (his age, who he's fighting, etc) would all already be factored into what chance I give him of winning. I'm not throwing a rough guess as to his chances and THEN looking at all the reasons he may not win. Those are already baked in to how I cap the fight.

If your take is "Well I think it's a coin toss but I don't trust my capping or my read at all on this particular fight so I'm gonna pass..." that's a little different. I get that. But if you've really broken it down and truly believe it's around a coin toss, I can't imagine not playing a guy at almost 2-1 odds.

I see. You're more experienced and better at estimating lines than I am, but the risk profile is something I consider outside of the line. I tend to treat it like a stock pick: fundamentals analysis (stats, which you know can be bogus and misleading), technical analysis (tape study, where I only have a limited knowledge base and time so I can't predict all aspects of the fight correctly) and risk profile (determines variance in outcomes). The latter is how I factor in unknowns and if there are too many then I pass as there's no way for me to feel confident in my line analysis. I'll try it your way though and see if I get better results, but only with fake money until I can prove that I know what I'm doing.

this

I'll listen to you guys as you obviously know more and are more proven at this, but tonight I won $1600 and only lost $50 on the Moraes/Merab hedge play. I was right about more things than I was wrong about and regret only having $200 on Hooker. I feel ok about the prices I paid.

EDIT: I guess I just don't understand how you can be so confident in this sport. With refs, judging, gameplans, injuries, improvements, skill regression, etc. all being unknown and largely unpredictable, I just can't wrap my head around having an accurate number for line prediction. I get it for baseball and basketball, but not MMA.

 

[TheSantos]

Awesome card, won a couple hundred on volk decision. Fight gave me anxiety

 

[Deleted member 510399]

Lol at all you betting UFC experts. I knew when I saw everyone was on Medic hype train to take Turner. Thank you!

Post your betslip of you winning peanuts.

And this is coming from someone on Turner sub and the under. Don't fucking come in here talking shit to people that just lost money when your bankroll is probably the size of my dick.