UFC 265: Lewis vs Gane - Discussion Thread

[2020Tracked]

I'm on Chiesa, I think he is the side.. But Chiesa did kind if get out grappled by Condit in the first round and almost arm barred. I don't think Chiesa's ground game is THAT good.

Liking Aldo more and more as the week goes on

 

[Deleted member 510399]

Gane sub +1500 is bonkers, great find.

Just based on the fact Lewis will give up a choke if he's exhausted if nothing else. And it's not like Gane hasn't secured subs previously.

Gane to win by RNC is +8000 as well.

Lewis always gives up his back to stand up. DC spotted it and that's how he ended up winning, Tybura had his back but instantly used his arms to go for a choke, which allowed Lewis to get out.

I can 100% see Gane's team recognizing this tendency, and Gane could easily exploit it in rounds 3 and beyond is Lewis is fatigued at all.

 

[XociDe]

I've seen multiple people claim that RDA is a better grappler than Luque but you seem to be ignoring the importance of size. RDA might technically be better but he is tinnyy compared to Chiesa. Honestly, I don't know what will happen in this fight but betting Chiesa because he out-grappled RDA due to size and strength doesn't make much sense.

Washed Condit, undersized and washed Diego, past prime and undersized RDA, skinny and weak Magny. His streak isn't as impressive as it might first look.

Luque seems to be hitting his prime and he has looked better in every fight. Chiesa has not fought anyone like Luque since maybe Kevin Lee, in terms of physical prime and career trajectory. Definitely no one at 170 anyway.

I have underestimated Chiesa in the past and lost money though (against RDA actually lol), so who knows.

 

[DonQ94]

I think that the line between Fiziev and Green is very wide. I like Fiziev a lot, his muay thai is extremely pleasing to watch. However I noticed a couple things after watching tape. He's not great when he get's backed up against the cage, slows down considerably throughout a fight and doesn't have the greatest boxing defense.
I think Bobby green can have succes jabbing him up, furthermore he's a tough mofo with better cardio and better wrestling. We haven't seen much of Fiziev on his back yet, nor did he have to defend a lot of TD's. Bobby is always gonna attempt a couple per fight and I wouldn't be shocked if he's able to blanket Fiziev, who's quite small for the weight class. Biggest danger is gonna be the leg kicks for sure, but we have seen Bobby fight decently after switching stance.
I know Green can be very frustrating when you bet on him, but I like him in these kinda spots because he's a tough guy to look dominant against. Already poked his ML and Decision line.

 

[mkess101]

I've seen multiple people claim that RDA is a better grappler than Luque but you seem to be ignoring the importance of size. RDA might technically be better but he is tinnyy compared to Chiesa. Honestly, I don't know what will happen in this fight but betting Chiesa because he out-grappled RDA due to size and strength doesn't make much sense.

Washed Condit, undersized and washed Diego, past prime and undersized RDA, skinny and weak Magny. His streak isn't as impressive as it might first look.

Luque seems to be hitting his prime and he has looked better in every fight. Chiesa has not fought anyone like Luque since maybe Kevin Lee, in terms of physical prime and career trajectory. Definitely no one at 170 anyway.

I have underestimated Chiesa in the past and lost money though (against RDA actually lol), so who knows.

Fair points but the size differential between Chiesa and Luque will still likely be larger than the size difference between Luque and RDA. I don't think Luque is a tiny WW, but he looks average sized at best and maybe a bit below average in terms of size.

Meaning that although Luque is bigger than RDA, he's still probably closer to RDA's size than he is to Chiesa's. That's just me eyeballing it though, I don't want to make it sound like there some sort of basis for this view other than my own eyes.

And to be clear, "skinny and weak" Magny has outgrappled some pretty big WW's (Gastelum when he was at 170 for example). Magny is wiry, but calling him "weak" seems off.

The weigh in will be interesting. I could be wrong, but I still think we will see a somewhat noticeable size difference between Chiesa and Luque. Chiesa might be the biggest WW on the roster.

 

[Deleted member 510399]

I'm worried about so many fights on this card. Any close fight, since this is in Houston, is subject to fuckery.

Torres/Hill, Kenney/Yong, Aldo/Munhoz, among others.

 

[DonQ94]

Fair points but the size differential between Chiesa and Luque will still likely be larger than the size difference between Luque and RDA. I don't think Luque is a tiny WW, but he looks average sized at best and maybe a bit below average in terms of size.

Meaning that although Luque is bigger than RDA, he's still probably closer to RDA's size than he is to Chiesa's. That's just me eyeballing it though, I don't want to make it sound like there some sort of basis for this view other than my own eyes.

And to be clear, "skinny and weak" Magny has outgrappled some pretty big WW's (Gastelum when he was at 170 for example). Magny is wiry, but calling him "weak" seems off.

The weigh in will be interesting. I could be wrong, but I still think we will see a somewhat noticeable size difference between Chiesa and Luque. Chiesa might be the biggest WW on the roster.

Another big difference between RDA and Luque is the power. Luque is one of the most powerful punchers in the WW division who can put anyone's lights out. RDA doesn't really have that threat. I consider Luque also to be more explosive and faster which makes him a much more dangerous adversary (at WW).

 

[Noel Wards]

Does Gane leave his head wide open for a counter when doing bodyshots?

 

[mkess101]

Another big difference between RDA and Luque is the power. Luque is one of the most powerful punchers in the WW division who can put anyone's lights out. RDA doesn't really have that threat. I consider Luque also to be more explosive and faster which makes him a much more dangerous adversary (at WW).

Agree, Luque has good power. But it's not scary, lights out power. Barberena has a good chin sure but someone with monster power could never land the amount of bombs that Luque landed on him and not put him away earlier. Barberena walked through a zillion clean shots before he was finally stopped and that was partially due to how tired he was by that late point in the fight.

That said, nobody thinks Chiesa is gonna fare well if there's much standup action anyway. He wouldn't have vs RDA, and he won't vs Luque. A bet on Chiesa is absolutely a bet that he grapplefucks Luque, full stop.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Just checked the odds and put a decent bet on Gane by KO/TKO at +155.

I think he picks Lewis apart and finishes him. BB is soft to the body.

I don't think a submission is likely... DC completely mahandled Lewis on the ground but I don't see Gane doing that.

 

[svmr_db]

Had this brought to my attention, there have been some dodgy scorecards coming out of past events in Texas. This may not be the card to do crazy big stakes on any fight you think will probably go to the scorecards.

http://www.mmadecisions.com/event/1051/UFC-247-Jones-vs-Reyes

http://www.mmadecisions.com/event/1152/UFC-262-Oliveira-vs-Chandler

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Anyone whose done tape on Gane!!

I've heard the assertion every time he strikes with a body shot he leaves his head wide open for a counter?

Do you find this to be accurate?

No. And he works the body mostly with kicks which has been Lewis kryptonite.

BB is super fast for his size and can catch anybody tho.

 

[2020Tracked]

I've seen multiple people claim that RDA is a better grappler than Luque but you seem to be ignoring the importance of size. RDA might technically be better but he is tinnyy compared to Chiesa. Honestly, I don't know what will happen in this fight but betting Chiesa because he out-grappled RDA due to size and strength doesn't make much sense.

Washed Condit, undersized and washed Diego, past prime and undersized RDA, skinny and weak Magny. His streak isn't as impressive as it might first look.

Luque seems to be hitting his prime and he has looked better in every fight. Chiesa has not fought anyone like Luque since maybe Kevin Lee, in terms of physical prime and career trajectory. Definitely no one at 170 anyway.

I have underestimated Chiesa in the past and lost money though (against RDA actually lol), so who knows.

Are Luque's wins any better than Chiesa's though? Luque's best win is what, Belal Muhammad from 5 years go? Or Randy Brown maybe?

He's been on a run of fights that are great stylistic match ups for him, all strikes and a mostly level lower. When he's had steps up he's lost

 

[Tarkovsky]

@ svmr_db

Lmao at Jones 49-46.

 

[BigSteve]

Does Gane leave his head wide open for a counter when doing bodyshots?

Its hard to catch him considering how much faster he is compared to other HW's. He also feints a lot so you dont see the kicks coming. he also uses the near side teep which gives him even more distance and is safer, rather than the one from the rear leg.

 

[matthew55]

what are the odds noone pulls out or gets covid? I'd say 75 percent chance someone does

 

[Tarkovsky]

@ BigSteve

Gane also has a 2 inch reach advantage.

 

[BigSteve]

@ BigSteve

Gane also has a 2 inch reach advantage.

yea, and he knows how to use it. Anyway talking a shit ton about this fight is going to jinx me again like the Williams/Gall fight lol

 

[Noel Wards]

I'm on Chiesa, I think he is the side.. But Chiesa did kind if get out grappled by Condit in the first round and almost arm barred. I don't think Chiesa's ground game is THAT good.

Liking Aldo more and more as the week goes on

That was 3 years ago tbf. I think he's a purple belt now.

 

[Bakayoko]

I don't know if anyone noticed or i missread it,but betway's got a big phallacy on the main event.Gane method of victory by sub is 7.00,while in the double chance method of victory KO/TKO/DQ or DEC is 3.75!!!I smashed it as big as I can but they limited me after a few hundred