UFC 260: Stipe vs Ngannou 2

[Captain Chesapeake]

Buk vs olek is a pretty interesting matchup.

olek the pressure fighter vs buk the rangey counter puncher.
What puts me off about olek is I think he’s undersized for the division and he can’t sustain the pace he puts on over 3 rounds.

He started working with a strength and conditioning coach after he gassed in one round against st preux. Didn’t matter much because crute manhandled him in one rd. Will he be able to pressure buk successfully, who moves better than anyone he’s faced?

pressuring and throwing in the way that he does leaves him exposed to counters, which buk is reasonably good at

buk himself got countered hard, again against the savage crute in the first round. He threw a jab to hide a body kick but the savage crute did not care what he was throwing. his game plan was to stand his ground and fire that right hand. Crute was willing to eat whatever buk had to get off that straight right hand and it was over once it landed flush

Olek also is willing to eat punches to land his own. He throws unorthodox looping shots but has fairly good accuracy and hand speed. He’s added head movement and feints to his game over time. He’s not nearly as powerful as crute but he’s accurate and the punches come from angles you don’t see and he’s knocked guys out.

not really any big wins in the ufc but he has a ton of experience over buk.

buk is a big lhw, olek is small.

buk has good cardio, olek does not

both are fast but olek has faster hands

buk has the power advantage. Also a better kicking game and is the better more technical striker.

Feel like the line should be closer to evens. Slight value on buk right now.

No play for me

 

[longway]

O'Malley definitely has durability issues. But am I wrong for thinking that Vera's win over him was atleast slightly flukey?

The finish was flukey, but it looked to me like Vera had gotten O' Malley's timing and was starting to pressure him. But maybe my memory is off.

 

[Sono07]

I'm big on Luque(as a fighter) and Woodley has looked like dogshit, but Woodley has only faced people that have taken him down and held him down recently.

To play devil's advocate, Luque wont take him down. He's going to look to bang with him, and Tyrone could implement leg kicks, and even get takedowns of his own.

I'm a little rusty on Woodley's older fights and I may skip them since he is basically a different fighter now. Has he ever utilized a heavy kicking game before? He seems like a heavy handed wrestle boxer/power puncher to me. Honestly I think it would be a horrible idea for Woodley to kick here against the tai stylist.

Woodley is probably very heavy on his lead leg to generate his power. That and Luque is a solid kicker himself and could probably check Tyron easily with his tai stance. Luque is like a bigger maybe more technical Munhoz. Constant forward movement and pressure, great chin, and loves/excels at attrition fighting. Honestly I'm pretty high on Luque here. I think Twood stays glued to the cage and gets his leg chewed to shreds here. I don't think he can weaponize his wrestling his wrestling for any meaning amount of time either. I think Luque could either just win a points fight from mid with combos or shut down Twoods boxing even more like Munhoz did to Rivera recently.

Now that I think about it outside of a big right hand Edgar "beating" Munhoz is probably the closest comparison for what Woodley would need to do here. Stay active from range /Nope, mix in his takedowns /doubtful, and make Luque miss while chasing him around. Twoods is only going two directions here left or right on the cage, I see no way Woodley wins the moment by moment exchanges to score points her. Ko or bust to me and I'd say he is bust already.

 

[loller90278]

i'll wait and see if any casual money comes in on woodley, see if i can grab luque at -200 or so. I think he'll be able to chop down the legs for 2 rounds and get a finish in the 3rd.

Will also be live betting ngannou/stipe after the 1st round.

 

[Sono07]

i'll wait and see if any casual money comes in on woodley, see if i can grab luque at -200 or so. I think he'll be able to chop down the legs for 2 rounds and get a finish in the 3rd.

Will also be live betting ngannou/stipe after the 1st round.

Luque by all the points honestly, that line will probably look much better. If Twood doesn't get a finish I think he gets embarrassed again.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Abu azaitar is an absolute tank. Shame he’s been on the bench for the last few years. Popped for steroids and is back after getting his suspension reduced. Looks like he had two fights scrapped last year. Hasn’t fought in almost three years. Lost via cut in 2012 and lost his pro debut. Other than that he’s unbeaten although he’s fought just once in the last 4.5 years

he carries his power late into fights. He’s very strong. Seems fairly well rounded. Very aggressive. Throws what seem to be wild shots to close distance but I think hes trying to get a reaction out of his opponent to put a more precise bomb on their chins.

Amateur mui Thai career. K-1 fighter. Far more skilled than power bar.

his fight against Miranda was very high paced. I thought the guy would gas after the first round. He looked to be breathing heavy but managed to fight through it, still throwing with power and aggression and powering out of numerous Miranda mounts.

I’d favor azaitar here. There are some big red flags obviously coming off a suspension and long layoff. He’s also served time in prison if anyone cares about that stuff. He’s a wildman no doubt

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Stipe via decision at +500 is wide to me, he's smaller than when they first fought and just gonna do the same wrestle fuck strategy for 5 rounds. Ngannu durability is kinda absurd and he's also smaller than when they first fought which should help with his cardio hopefully to not gas after 1 round. Early round props for Ngannu are also good plays, don't see him winning decision.

 

[Sono07]

Weird chin on Stipe, I guess it is the shots you don't see coming? Francis's boxing isn't terrible when he uses it. He is at least very good at generating power with his short hooks and uppercuts.

I can tell you who I'm not betting against even live if the Predator is on deaths door. The man with the scariest equalizer in the game, complete and total fuck you power. Submission specialist at least have to set there game up. Enough power and it only takes one, one shot, one second, one quick trip to get scanned for a head trauma.

Not going crazy on Ngannou out of respect for the champ though. Ngannou or his cardio at least may have gotten worse from the lack of octagon time. Still DC was hurting Stipe late in there fight and so did a super gassed Francis the first time around.

Personally big Frank's ML or KO line at or around plus money is always value to me. Hw is already volatile enough and Lewis just proved why betting against fuck you power is so risky. Ngannou has probably been practicing his uppercuts even more after that one lmao

 

[Sono07]

I thought Perry got robbed when I first saw the fight but I give Luque r2 and r3 on damage and slightly better volume after watching it again.

Perry had some clinch/grappling control (slightly worrisome) but did nothing with it. Twood doesn't want to have the type of fight Luque forces people to have. My only worry is Tyron trying to wall and stall.

Luque really does fuck people up though. Tyron is much more interested in a check than getting turned into Mr Potatohead.

 

[Shotcy]

I think Woodley is going to show up and let it all fly here. Hes lost a lot and needs to prove to himself he still got it. Hes the rightful underdog and if he fights the same as his last 3, hes probably going to lose. I dont think hes going to be so passive this time around is all.

 

[BigSteve]

Heres a narative for you. Walt Harris said he did a training camp with Ngannou for one of his opponents, a striker. ( probably JDS ).

He said he was shocked how much wrestling they were doing in camp, apparently, he was taken back by it considering this fighter never shoots takedowns. Supposedly, since the Stipe fight, all of his training camps have involved preparation for Stipe himself.

Make of that what you will

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Heres a narative for you. Walt Harris said he did a training camp with Ngannou for one of his opponents, a striker. ( probably JDS ).

He said he was shocked how much wrestling they were doing in camp, apparently, he was taken back by it considering this fighter never shoots takedowns. Supposedly, since the Stipe fight, all of his training camps have involved preparation for Stipe himself.

Make of that what you will

They said ngannou has become obsessed with wrestling

 

[DonQ94]

I think Woodley is going to show up and let it all fly here. Hes lost a lot and needs to prove to himself he still got it. Hes the rightful underdog and if he fights the same as his last 3, hes probably going to lose. I dont think hes going to be so passive this time around is all.

To be honest, we had this narrative ever since he lost to Usman. There's no reason to believe he somehow found the holy fire this time. Woodley has always been a super athletic but basic fighter. Now that his athleticism has waned there's not much left. He was already hesitant against Burns, Usman and Colby. Luque has better striking and more power than all three of them, so I think Tyron will shell up even quicker. Don't know what Luque's KO line is, but it seems like the most likely outcome to me.

 

[Kazda1]

This isnt going to be a wrestling performance put on by Stipe I don't think. Stipe about to come out like the HW version of old school Dom Cruz lol

 

[Sono07]

This isnt going to be a wrestling performance put on by Stipe I don't think. Stipe about to come out like the HW version of old school Dom Cruz lol

You don't think the small cage hurts his footwork advantage here? Even Dom was getting busted up by Kenny in R2. Stipe gets alot more hittable the longer fights go too.

 

[rille31]

Mma math but Im pretty sure both Devonte Smith and Luis Pena would absolutely dominate Mullarkey.

 

[Kazda1]

Not fighting in 3 years is a big red flag for me.

But are you willing to take a shot on Azaitar who hasn't fought in just as long and who showed he was gassing at the end of the first round against Miranda? Azaitar got what he wanted in that fight. All because he got no resistance from Miranda. I'm all for saying by the looks of it Azaitar is the right side against Barriault but only because Barriault looks to be the Billy Hoyle of MWs in the UFC. The problem is Barriault keeps walking forward, will keep throwing, and will find success even at the detriment of someone who's going to be slowing down gasping for air and looking to run away to conserve his enenrgy. I wouldn't be surprised if for that alone you see a decision that goes in Barriault's favor.

Goldy wants to fight the distance fight, the problem is - she's too small to play that type of game. If she gets in close, I like Penne to dictate where the fight goes. Simple as that. Yeah, I'm concerned about the layoff too - but I'm just asking the question since you brought up Azaitar as a possible play.

You don't think the small cage hurts his footwork advantage here? Even Dom was getting busted up by Kenny in R2. Stipe gets alot more hittable the longer fights go too.

It was more a joke than a literal comparison lol. I couldn't use the Adesanya comparison because we saw how that just went, and it's too early to think of some other kind of highly accurate striker, so I'll just say like I've said elsewhere on the forums - Stipe is gonna run a clinic here. Francis is great but he's just #3 as far as I'm concerned. Lewis is still ahead of him.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

But are you willing to take a shot on Azaitar who hasn't fought in just as long and who showed he was gassing at the end of the first round against Miranda? Azaitar got what he wanted in that fight. All because he got no resistance from Miranda. I'm all for saying by the looks of it Azaitar is the right side against Barriault but only because Barriault looks to be the Billy Hoyle of MWs in the UFC. The problem is Barriault keeps walking forward, will keep throwing, and will find success even at the detriment of someone who's going to be slowing down gasping for air and looking to run away to conserve his enenrgy. I wouldn't be surprised if for that alone you see a decision that goes in Barriault's favor.

Goldy wants to fight the distance fight, the problem is - she's too small to play that type of game. If she gets in close, I like Penne to dictate where the fight goes. Simple as that. Yeah, I'm concerned about the layoff too - but I'm just asking the question since you brought up Azaitar as a possible play.





It was more a joke than a literal comparison lol. I couldn't use the Adesanya comparison because we saw how that just went, and it's too early to think of some other kind of highly accurate striker, so I'll just say like I've said elsewhere on the forums - Stipe is gonna run a clinic here. Francis is great but he's just #3 as far as I'm concerned. Lewis is still ahead of him.

I think there’s a large skill gap between azaitar and power bar. I’m willing to risk 2 units on it despite the red flags. Probably double the bet size if azaitar was coming fresh off the Miranda win and the layoff never happened

penne and goldy isnt as big of a gap and it’s wmma. Penne is 38 years old and also a Usada victim. She lost her last fight to a somewhat similar fighter in Danielle Taylor

pass. Need better odds to take a chance

 

[Sono07]

But are you willing to take a shot on Azaitar who hasn't fought in just as long and who showed he was gassing at the end of the first round against Miranda? Azaitar got what he wanted in that fight. All because he got no resistance from Miranda. I'm all for saying by the looks of it Azaitar is the right side against Barriault but only because Barriault looks to be the Billy Hoyle of MWs in the UFC. The problem is Barriault keeps walking forward, will keep throwing, and will find success even at the detriment of someone who's going to be slowing down gasping for air and looking to run away to conserve his enenrgy. I wouldn't be surprised if for that alone you see a decision that goes in Barriault's favor.

Goldy wants to fight the distance fight, the problem is - she's too small to play that type of game. If she gets in close, I like Penne to dictate where the fight goes. Simple as that. Yeah, I'm concerned about the layoff too - but I'm just asking the question since you brought up Azaitar as a possible play.





It was more a joke than a literal comparison lol. I couldn't use the Adesanya comparison because we saw how that just went, and it's too early to think of some other kind of highly accurate striker, so I'll just say like I've said elsewhere on the forums - Stipe is gonna run a clinic here. Francis is great but he's just #3 as far as I'm concerned. Lewis is still ahead of him.

Not a bad comparison with Dom. Seemed like Stipe used alot of footwork and head movement in the first fight. My biggest read here is Francis knows what to expect from Stipe now and Miocic won't be able to keep his distance or at least have as much room to work as he needs. DC coming on strong with strikes later against Stipe was a very bad look in my opinion. DC is skilled but he is undersized at HW at least as a striker and doesn't have near the level of physicality of that Ngannou does

Tough sell on Lewis. Blaydes might be his best win and Francis stopped him twice. Not to meantion JDS KOed Lewis and Francis smashed JDS. Not really relevant here but I think Gane is about to be in, or on his way to the number 1 contender slot very soon.

 

[DonQ94]

I think there’s a large skill gap between azaitar and power bar. I’m willing to risk 2 units on it despite the red flags. Probably double the bet size if azaitar was coming fresh off the Miranda win and the layoff never happened

penne and goldy isnt as big of a gap and it’s wmma. Penne is 38 years old and also a Usada victim. She lost her last fight to a somewhat similar fighter in Danielle Taylor

pass. Need better odds to take a chance

Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see a whole lot of skill in azaitar. The only thing he does, is run forward in a straight line throwing overhands with his head held low. Barriault has a decent high guard, good chin and likes throwing uppercuts. I could see him catch Azaitar with one of those or outcardio him.
I think the line is pretty accurate, don't see much value on the ML. Just a low level sloppy brawl kinda fight.