UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 Discussion

NorthernLights said:
Or just play them straight. I don't get the appeal of parlaying everything. Well, I do get the idea (dreaming of that big payout) but it's obviously a bad strategy.
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Playing a fighter at 1.4 straight

Merab is a WMMA fighter with a double leg, Dodson doesn't get finished, if you're 95% sure Merab wins then just play his decision line
 
NorthernLights said:
Or just play them straight. I don't get the appeal of parlaying everything. Well, I do get the idea (dreaming of that big payout) but it's obviously a bad strategy.
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the point of a parlay (at least to me) is to build equity for a main bet without putting down the money so in other words if I want to put 5-6k down on Stipe but only want to risk 1000, I put down the 1000 on a couple bets that I think will cash. In this case, I got Burns ITD at -150 and had Dariush last week at -150. This builds up the equity for the final fight without as much financial risk. I also take those bets on their own in case Stipe loses to basically break even. It’s just a different way of betting. With football I parlay because games have the same start times and I can find some fun prop bets to include. I think I got Lamar Jackson over 35 rushing yards or something silly like that in a big parlay last year that cashed. It’s about putting together bets you are really confident in to drop a hammer on the last bet.

That said, occasionally I will hedge. With Alonzo I hedged Clark decision at like 3:1 or something like that thanks to @Sadistics and I hedged Zombie big time after watching him coming into the Moicano fight.

but you’re right: hitting a parlay is super satisfying
 
Naught2Sixty said:
Rumor has it Lefontes is injured. Bet the dog bros.
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Im always ready. Im bjj brown belt but my love is boxing im training boxing since 2008. 7-0 as amateur boxing and 2-0 on street fight on Rio but dont like brawl. Also one day for week im training wrestling and luta livre (bjj without gi). Im 6:1 and 200 lbs. Im done with this and back just to talk on MMA bets. $$$$$$$$$$$$
 
lefontes said:
Im always ready. Im bjj brown belt but my love is boxing im training boxing since 2008. 7-0 as amateur boxing and 2-0 on street fight on Rio but dont like brawl. Also one day for week im training wrestling and luta livre (bjj without gi). Im 6:1 and 200 lbs. Im done with this and back just to talk on MMA bets. $$$$$$$$$$$$
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I love BJs myself.
 
Tirimasuperman said:
Playing a fighter at 1.4 straight

Merab is a WMMA fighter with a double leg, Dodson doesn't get finished, if you're 95% sure Merab wins then just play his decision line
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That's also a shitty strategy IMO and will very likely cost you more than you'll win in the long run. But everyone is free to do as they like.
 
It's certainly conceivable that Suga Sean will do Chito the way did Wineland and Teco. But how likely is it? And what if he doesn't? The current "post-suspension" iteration of Sean may be different, but I think Chito would absolutely drown the second and third round version of O'malley from the Soukhamthath and Terrion Ware fights.

For O'malley to win we need to see something we haven't seen before: Chito getting finished or O'malley being able to stay as accurate and sharp for three full rounds. At +240 I'd rather take a chance on Chito's ability to grind him down (probably for a late stoppage or a decision).

Also, the small cage should be to Chito's advantage. If Chito manages to push him up against the cage it will be very interesting to see how Suga reacts to the meanness and tenacity of Chito's clinch game.

I also like the long-game approach to betting Chito in this fight. If O'malley loses his hype will be deflated, and we might never get another chance to get an elite-level fighter as a sizeable dog against him. However, if O'malley wins in spectacular fashion he will probably end up a favourite against a top 5–10 bantamweight (a new opportunity to fade him?). A close and hard-fought decision win for O'malley could mess this tactic up, so I'm tempted to combine a bet on Chito with some cash on the overs.
 
BaruchSpinoza said:
It's certainly conceivable that Suga Sean will do Chito the way did Wineland and Teco. But how likely is it? And what if he doesn't? The current "post-suspension" iteration of Sean may be different, but I think Chito would absolutely drown the second and third round version of O'malley from the Soukhamthath and Terrion Ware fights.

For O'malley to win we need to see something we haven't seen before: Chito getting finished or O'malley being able to stay as accurate and sharp for three full rounds. At +240 I'd rather take a chance on Chito's ability to grind him down (probably for a late stoppage or a decision).

Also, the small cage should be to Chito's advantage. If Chito manages to push him up against the cage it will be very interesting to see how Suga reacts to the meanness and tenacity of Chito's clinch game.

I also like the long-game approach to betting Chito in this fight. If O'malley loses his hype will be deflated, and we might never get another chance to get an elite-level fighter as a sizeable dog against him. However, if O'malley wins in spectacular fashion he will probably end up a favourite against a top 5–10 bantamweight (a new opportunity to fade him?). A close and hard-fought decision win for O'malley could mess this tactic up, so I'm tempted to combine a bet on Chito with some cash on the overs.
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Hm, expected the o.1.5 to be a little better than -250 tbh... So, people are expecting O’Malley to outlast Vera? That’s interesting...
 
BaruchSpinoza said:
It's certainly conceivable that Suga Sean will do Chito the way did Wineland and Teco. But how likely is it? And what if he doesn't? The current "post-suspension" iteration of Sean may be different, but I think Chito would absolutely drown the second and third round version of O'malley from the Soukhamthath and Terrion Ware fights.

For O'malley to win we need to see something we haven't seen before: Chito getting finished or O'malley being able to stay as accurate and sharp for three full rounds. At +240 I'd rather take a chance on Chito's ability to grind him down (probably for a late stoppage or a decision).

Also, the small cage should be to Chito's advantage. If Chito manages to push him up against the cage it will be very interesting to see how Suga reacts to the meanness and tenacity of Chito's clinch game.

I also like the long-game approach to betting Chito in this fight. If O'malley loses his hype will be deflated, and we might never get another chance to get an elite-level fighter as a sizeable dog against him. However, if O'malley wins in spectacular fashion he will probably end up a favourite against a top 5–10 bantamweight (a new opportunity to fade him?). A close and hard-fought decision win for O'malley could mess this tactic up, so I'm tempted to combine a bet on Chito with some cash on the overs.
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Wasn't O'Malley basically on one leg in rd 3 vs Soukhamtath? Hard to put that much stock in that. And Ware was 3 years ago, which is a long time for a 25 year old to improve on his holes.

I'd rather wait to find value in him against a top 5-10. Either he gets overhyped in the line and we can get good money on someone who's better than Chito, or O'Malley could have value himself against a top opponent he can beat.
 
rev0lver said:
Wasn't O'Malley basically on one leg in rd 3 vs Soukhamtath? Hard to put that much stock in that. And Ware was 3 years ago, which is a long time for a 25 year old to improve on his holes.

I'd rather wait to find value in him against a top 5-10. Either he gets overhyped in the line and we can get good money on someone who's better than Chito, or O'Malley could have value himself against a top opponent he can beat.
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Yeah, but he was looking way more laboured in the first two minutes of the third as well.

I agree, at that age three years is a long time. However, cardio issues often don't seem to go away. He was likely training very hard already at that time, so it may be a stylistic thing. His elusive and bouncy style might just be hard to keep up for three rounds. To keep up a dominant performance against the dog and initiator of chaos that is Marlon Vera, he will have to show us something we haven't quite seen before. For that reason, odds such as O'Malley R3 at +1000 and Vera R3 at +2500 make very little sense to me.
 
Considering a parlay on DC and O Malley...i keep going back and forth though on how stipe/dc is gonna go.
 
BaruchSpinoza said:
Hm, expected the o.1.5 to be a little better than -250 tbh... So, people are expecting O’Malley to outlast Vera? That’s interesting...
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I was really hoping O'Malley's hype would carry over to the props and not just his ML, but the books were better than that. I think he's likely to win (although no way would I pay this juice) but pretty unlikely to finish. I think he will outland and outclass Vera early, but the fight will even out down the stretch with Vera having a good shot to win rd 3 after dropping the first two.

But +158 is nowhere near good enough to play O'malley's dec prop. And yeah, -250 is too steep on the over even given everything I already said.

I can't knock a play on Vera's ML and that rd 3 prop is great value. Personally it's probably a pass pre fight for me unless I just get too antsy come Saturday and put a few peanuts on something.
 
mkess101 said:
I was really hoping O'Malley's hype would carry over to the props and not just his ML, but the books were better than that. I think he's likely to win (although no way would I pay this juice) but pretty unlikely to finish. I think he will outland and outclass Vera early, but the fight will even out down the stretch with Vera having a good shot to win rd 3 after dropping the first two.

But +158 is nowhere near good enough to play O'malley's dec prop. And yeah, -250 is too steep on the over even given everything I already said.

I can't knock a play on Vera's ML and that rd 3 prop is great value. Personally it's probably a pass pre fight for me unless I just get too antsy come Saturday and put a few peanuts on something.
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Thanks for your input, always value your take on fights! I agree with your read, and was initially also interested in O'Malleys decision line as an alternative to the overs. But would have wanted at least +250–300ish!
 
I’m playing Vera KO/TKO @ +1200. I’m not saying this is a rule, but taller fighters at lower weight classes seem to be chinny. Vera has power in his hands and can TKO anyone at BW as far as I’m concerned so I’m playing that.
 
mkess101 said:
I was really hoping O'Malley's hype would carry over to the props and not just his ML, but the books were better than that. I think he's likely to win (although no way would I pay this juice) but pretty unlikely to finish. I think he will outland and outclass Vera early, but the fight will even out down the stretch with Vera having a good shot to win rd 3 after dropping the first two.

But +158 is nowhere near good enough to play O'malley's dec prop. And yeah, -250 is too steep on the over even given everything I already said.

I can't knock a play on Vera's ML and that rd 3 prop is great value. Personally it's probably a pass pre fight for me unless I just get too antsy come Saturday and put a few peanuts on something.
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over is -148
 
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