UFC 249 Ferguson vs Gaethje (May 9th)

[BigSteve]

Niko took even more damage, got kod by Abdul and Geof Neal. Even bum Tim Means nearly finished him. I dont see even any progress in his game, most of his wins are lucky punches but yeah he has crazy power

Well yea Niko has always been chinny, he seems almost hurt in every fight. Thats why my biggest play is 4u on Luque by finish in first 2 rounds. Its by no means a lock just because of Luques defence and damage, so Niko by rd1 and 2 KO is good cover.

 

[rille31]

End of the day im playing 1u on NIko rd1 ko, 1u rd2 ko and 4u on Luque rd 1 or 2. Worst case if Luque wins, up 2u. If Niko kos him in first 2 then a very solid profit.

Risky bets

I could see Luque boxing Nico up for a clear decision, Luque also slows down so a 3rd ko for Nico is also possible but good luck.

 

[BigSteve]

Risky bets

I could see Luque boxing Nico up for a clear decision, Luque also slows down so a 3rd ko for Nico is also possible but good luck.

Ye risk, if it goes to a third it goes all tits up for me lol. I rewatched their first fight again before placing, it was about 40 seconds before going to 3rd. But as soon as Price opened up and was hit with something semi-solid he was finished. The calf kicks were adding up as well. Both guys were also very tentative, Niko has gone completely the other way since. If the same guy that came out against Neil shows up, he will either finish or be finished. Niko has never been to a third in the UFC, Luque only against ranked guys or granite chins like Barbarena and Perry.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

@Sono07 I've looked all odds available for the Francis-Jairzinho fight and honestly couldn't see value anywhere. I've watched more tape and the potential for staring match is not that big as I thought it is. Somebody will get finished in this fight. Most likely Bigi Boi. The way Overeem was connecting flush with Roze's chin every time he threw even the most obvious loopy left hand was very concerning.

I think she’s going to take waterson down and keep her there for extended periods of time.

Yeah, but Waterson has good wrestling herself. And she has explosive sub hunting game if I may use these words. (my english is not that good, sorry). I like Esparza in this fight, but I won't be surprised if she lose.

I tend to stay away from the “who’s more shot“ fights.

100%

I'll take Kattar to jab and dance around 'Lil Heathen until he catches a random should have seen that coming right hook and gets ktfo.

I have a feeling he won't even get the opportunity do dance around. Feels like a sneaky bad match-up for Kattar. Kattar doesn't like at all when he is pushed back. Doesn't throw counters, doesn't circle away well. He likes his opponent to stay in front of him and to give him space to set his power hand with the jab. I don't think Jeremy will give him that much opportunities to do this. He'll stay right in front of him, but won't give him space. Oddsmakers think it's a long shot, but I like Jeremy ITD @ +410 - it won't be the first time, nor the last Jeremy smashes some up-and-comer.

Also full props have been released in AUS.
im on this
0.3U - Ngannou Sub rd1 $18
0.2U - Ngannou Sub rd 2 $41
0.1U - Ngannou Sub rd 3 $81
Just have this feeling that with the chip on his shoulder Francis will want to showcase his full skillset in this fight, if he has Rozen in trouble he might go for a sub, he has done it before and Rozen might be the perfect match-up for it to happen again.

Yeah, but Rozenstruik is not that bad to get submitted, specially by guy who's not a grappler. I get that Francis has some power subs in his backpocket, but so far he's done them on the lowest of low level opponents.

 

[Sono07]

I've looked all odds available for the Francis-Jairzinho fight and honestly couldn't see value anywhere.

Breaking my own rule being confident in a HW fight but I like Francis's NSC line. I really doubt he gets stopped.

Hopefully this things is really on. If so bless Florida and the Red man.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Breaking my own rule being confident in a HW fight but I like Francis's NSC line. I really doubt he gets stopped.

I will be quite shocked if Francis gets stopped. But use caution. Because every time I break my own rules of betting I got kicked in the teeth.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Yooooo @mkess101 how you feeling about Tferg this time around?

 

[mkess101]

Yooooo @mkess101 how you feeling about Tferg this time around?

What's up brother? Hope all is well. Crazy times.

I think Tony wins, likely by stoppage rd 3 or 4. Maybe a bit of value in him where he is. I'd probably cap his ML around -200. Gaethje rd 1 is the hedge imo. Tony has had a couple sketchy moments in rd 1 (Lando and Pettis) but starting in rd 2 just butchers people.

I'll look into it more next week. I might actually jump back in and put a few pennies on the upcoming cards, shit is sooooo boring right now. It will be peanuts because that's all they'll let me bet, but it could still be fun maybe ha ha.

 

[OutRun]

It puzzles me that there's this strong narrative of a "new" Gaethje, composed, careful, and frugal when LITERALLY ALL OF THE FIGHTS since this "patient Gaethje" debuted have been round 1 flash KOs where he tanks shots and wades in to land the big hook.

 

[null]

Just in case anyone thinks that the UFC will be testing fighters, officials or staff for COVID-19 at the Jacksonville cards, listen to Dana hem and haw his way through a direct question from Kevin Iole:

 

[TrueAscension]

It puzzles me that there's this strong narrative of a "new" Gaethje, composed, careful, and frugal when LITERALLY ALL OF THE FIGHTS since this "patient Gaethje" debuted have been round 1 flash KOs where he tanks shots and wades in to land the big hook.

Rewatch the tape then. He's just not leaving himself to be hit as easily as he was before and the patience aspect is more about his patience to finish when he's got his opponent hurt instead of just rushing in and eating a counter. Ferg gets hit himself and needs some adjustment time to figure out where he's being struck from and figure his way out of that situation into a dominant position for the remaining fight. Hell, he lost the first round to Cerrone.. Not sure Gaethje is the best matchup for that.

 

[OutRun]

Rewatch the tape then. He's just not leaving himself to be hit as easily as he was before and the patience aspect is more about his patience to finish when he's got his opponent hurt instead of just rushing in and eating a counter. Ferg gets hit himself and needs some adjustment time to figure out where he's being struck from and figure his way out of that situation into a dominant position for the remaining fight. Hell, he lost the first round to Cerrone.. Not sure Gaethje is the best matchup for that.

When I watch the tape I see three fights in which Gaethje knocks the opponent dead with one of the very first strikes he lands; there's not enough time for him to be patient or conservative, and they flip from conscious to unconscious in one clean motion (not hurt or rocked). No real chance to demonstrate a careful approach to finishing.
I just don't see the new Gaethje people are talking about, especially because there's one round's worth of tape on him total.

 

[OutRun]

When I watch the tape I see three fights in which Gaethje knocks the opponent dead with one of the very first strikes he lands; there's not enough time for him to be patient or conservative, and they flip from conscious to unconscious in one clean motion (not hurt or rocked). No real chance to demonstrate a careful approach to finishing.
I just don't see the new Gaethje people are talking about, especially because there's one round's worth of tape on him total.

I think people are confusing a streak of favorable matchmaking with a makeover in his fighting style.

 

[Austisthunder]

I have returned from my constellation in the stars 2 meme on this board

 

[TheFightGame]

I was watching the new trailer and was started to get excited. Then the thought of no fans being there occurred to me and I started laughing. Good card regardless but knowing that zapped my energy..

Not touching the main event but think i'll be playing pettis.

 

[jrleclerc88]

If you think Cejudo doesn’t have the striking to beat Cruz you haven’t been paying attention

Marlon was beating henrys ass before he gassed. Cruz looks to be in respectable shape and i dont think he will has. If you think henry is a lock you havent been paying attention

 

[BigSteve]

It puzzles me that there's this strong narrative of a "new" Gaethje, composed, careful, and frugal when LITERALLY ALL OF THE FIGHTS since this "patient Gaethje" debuted have been round 1 flash KOs where he tanks shots and wades in to land the big hook.

He wades in and out, bouncing on his toes, faints and strikes when an opening is presented. Its a massive difference to plodding forward flat footed with a high guard and no head movement, eating shots in the pocket and returning them.

 

[jrleclerc88]

Cruz-Cejudo is weird. Peak Cruz should be -250, and I can only really see Cejudo justifying his massive favorite line if Cruz looks injury-compromised. And it's hard to know what Cruz' condition is going to be like pre-fight.

Taking a small roll of the dice on Cruz, but nothing gigantic.

Everything on cruz ig shows him training with stephens for a while now. Cruz looks to be in decent shape imo and is moving well in videos... Just a couple screen grabs but looks to have some size on him

 

[null]

Everything on cruz ig shows him training with stephens for a while now. Cruz looks to be in decent shape imo and is moving well in videos... Just a couple screen grabs but looks to have some size on him View attachment 764134 View attachment 764134 View attachment 764135

Needs more blur and negative black space.

 

[jrleclerc88]

Needs more blur and negative black space.

Yea great. Literally pointed out they were just screen shots from a video.