UFC 249 Ferguson vs Gaethje (May 9th)

[Gugabe]

ah yes you are right it was 2 years. I hear ya yea Spann is aggressive but he will
Most likely overwhelm alvey. He’s just so passive and doesn’t follow up his shots.

Alvey KO1's +1400 and KO is +700. I don't mind a roll of the dice for a little bit on either of those prices.

 

[turbozed]

What you make of KH/Esparza Turbo? Not asking for a full BD just some quick thoughts.

I've had no luck calling Waterson fights for some reason. Maybe she's just an inconsistent fighter, or maybe I just don't understand her that well. Her grappling has significantly improved but she's probably at a disadvantage here against Carla. Slight lean towards Carla, and Waterson has said it has been difficult training at home and taking care of kids at the same time. Saying all that, I think the two are close enough in skill level where it's likely going to be another close fight at 115. So I ended up stabbing Waterson DEC +200 since betting decision at around that price in a closely matched WSW fight has worked out well as a pure system play. Sorry I can't give you more insight than that.

 

[Martialbeef]

Started looking into the Ngannou fight a tad more. I’ll wait out round 1 and see Rozenstruik line after this. Obviously a good chance someone gets slept before then

 

[Saint_of_Killers]

Francis starches Bigi Boy in round 1.

I'm thinking of doing a prelim parlay with Spann, Werdum and Pettis. The other four prelims are too close to call.

I think Price is the best dog play of the entire card. Luque has had 7 WARS since their last fight and Price is a live dog in every fight.

For the main card, I think the faves win every fight, with Stephens having the best chance to upset.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Francis starches Bigi Boy in round 1.

I'm thinking of doing a prelim parlay with Spann, Werdum and Pettis. The other four prelims are too close to call.

I think Price is the best dog play of the entire card. Luque has had 7 WARS since their last fight and Price is a live dog in every fight.

For the main card, I think the faves win every fight, with Stephens having the best chance to upset.

Sure but Price got kod by Abdul, tkod by Geof Neal and Tim beat him up also until this lucky punch. But anyway Price has so much power that he is always worth some money

 

[2020Tracked]

If you're a 'value' better you have to have a play on Price and Olinik, makes no sense not to

 

[rille31]

Dont bet this clown Alvey, he has 1% chance to win. Better donate a dog shelter than risk for only 1%

Alvey winning by a dq or injury happens more often then 1% of the time.

 

[2020Tracked]

In regards to Herny/ Cruz the UFC were clearly trying to line up a tune up fight for Herny for a while, they had Edgar dropping down to fight Sandhagen, if Edger had would he would have got Henry but they lost him when he took the Zombie fight, Faber came back got a win and then got Yan, if Faber had won against Yan he would have got the title shot, then they had Aldo fight Marlon and he was getting the shot win or lose because it was last resort... The fight is booked, Henry has accepted so we know he's ready and then Corona fucks that up... Suddenly on a couple of weeks notice Cruz is ready to fight It's clear to me Herny had only agreed to fight if he gets a tune up, Edgar, Faber and Aldo, all fighters out of their prime, slowing down, getting old but with enough name value and history behind them that the UFC could justify them getting a shot.. After they all fell apart the only option left was Cruz - Who fits the same bill, an aging legend out if his prime but with enough name value and history to justify a shot - after that it's all very hard fights against top young contenders. This fight has been hand picked for Henry and will not be a particularly competitive one

 

[mkess101]

If you're a 'value' better you have to have a play on Price and Olinik, makes no sense not to

Oleinik? Rationale? I always need to hear when someone has an idea opposite mine like this. Sometimes there's just something I miss, sometimes not.

I've laid out my thoughts already but are you saying Oleinik ML? To me his only path to victory is a KO off one of his haymakers. Might as well stab that at +650 or whatever it is instead of his ML at +3xx or whatever. Werdum isn't getting subbed, those chokes won't work on a superior grappler like Fabricio. Oleinik has one round of gas, MAYBE 6-7 minutes if the fight is slow paced with no grappling at all. I get the layoff, motivation issues for Werdum, etc. But nobody goes in wanting to lose or get KO'd. And Alexei's chin is gone.

Aside from the haymaker landing, how do you see Alexei pulling the upset?

 

[ill800]

Oleinik? Rationale? I always need to hear when someone has an idea opposite mine like this. Sometimes there's just something I miss, sometimes not.

I've laid out my thoughts already but are you saying Oleinik ML? To me his only path to victory is a KO off one of his haymakers. Might as well stab that at +650 or whatever it is instead of his ML at +3xx or whatever. Werdum isn't getting subbed, those chokes won't work on a superior grappler like Fabricio. Oleinik has one round of gas, MAYBE 6-7 minutes if the fight is slow paced with no grappling at all. I get the layoff, motivation issues for Werdum, etc. But nobody goes in wanting to lose or get KO'd. And Alexei's chin is gone.

Aside from the haymaker landing, how do you see Alexei pulling the upset?

A few pages back Polar mentioned that he thinks Werdum has regressed quite a bit and is chinny as well.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Why can't Ngannou starch Rozen in the second or third? Rozen isn't going to challenge his wrestling in any way. He's gonna give Ngannou his type of fight and when you're fighting in your element your gas tank depletes much slower.

 

[mkess101]

Watched some more fights, have some more thoughts, added a few more plays.

Dom/CCC

Super interesting fight. The last time Dom came off a layoff, he looked really good vs TJ. Everyone knows how injury riddled his career has been, and honestly a lot of it has to do with his style. Joints aren't made to take that kind of strain, he puts a ton of pressure on them with the way he fights. That said, when he's healthy and moving the way he's capable, he's amazingly effective. In his fight with Garbrandt, Cody showed incredible patience and anticipation, throwing punches where Dom would be when he came back on his center line after dipping, dodging, etc. If Cejudo can to that, he can have success. But while Henry's boxing has improved, I don't think his instincts are at Cody's level when it comes to the feel of it. It's weird to say that as Cody has fallen off badly and gets lured into brawls when he shouldn't while Henry has looked amazing, but I do think it's true. Henry's comeback vs Moraes was impressive and he did make adjustments, but a lot of that result was Moraes gassing himself out looking for the killshot early. He was lighting Henry up the first part of that fight. Dom has used takedowns extremely well tactically in his career, they likely sealed the result vs TJ and he's done it a lot over his career. That likely won't be a factor here, Henry's wrestling is a level above. On the flipside, I don't see Henry looking to actively incorporate his offensive wrestling much unless the striking is really going against him (which is possible). Of course the question is going to be "What version of Dom are we getting?" and nobody really knows. But stylistically I think this is a fight he can win by using a hit and run, evade and counter style. Which is what he does best.

I'm gonna play Dom ML +185 and Dom dec +250 here, I think there's a bit of value.

Kattar/Stephens

Calvin has slick boxing and puts his punches together much better than Jeremy. He also has less mileage and just seems to move more fluidly. He has some pop, but doesn't overcommit too often he keeps his combinations tight and he's fairly accurate. He's just more polished with his hands, and he does a good job "punching off the punch" because his distance management is good. He slides back just enough to avoid getting hit and then throws his counters with great timing in return. That said, he's pretty heavy on his lead leg. Against a guy with brutal leg kicks, that can be a problem. Jeremy has them. In addition, I think people are sleeping on Jeremy's power. Because we haven't seen it in a few fights, people have forgotten that this guy flatlined the likes of RDA, Emmett, Doo Hoo Choi, etc. When he lands clean, guys go down. And Kattar isn't scared to mix it up in the pocket from time to time. In the end, I do favor Kattar and most likely by dec but I think the line is a bit too wide, and Jeremy's itd line is off as well at +525. That's value for a guy with proven power who's not afraid to throw heat.

Stephens ML +220 and ITD +525.

Alvey/Spann

Sometimes a guy is just...done. I think we're seeing that with Smilin' Sam. His calling card was always the same: Low volume, good TDD, big power with the left hand counter, solid chin. That's it. and it's a recipe that carried him pretty far all things considered. Some good wins on his resume', long career, etc. But he's just overmatched here. Spann is younger, faster, likely has a better chin and more power at this point, and is more well rounded. There really isn't a box you'd check in Alvey's favor here. Spann's ML is probably unplayable at almost -400 but his itd line absolutely has value at -130 imo. He's aggressive and not afraid to go for chokes if they are there (in addition to the power he brings striking). Alvey's once very good chin seems to be on the decline, everything just seems to add up to Spann getting him out of there easily. The only (very) minor concern is that every now and then we see fights like this where the prohibitive favorite goes in too amped and eager to get the other guy out of there and runs into an early bomb. Alvey probably still has some pop (that's the last thing to go), Spann can't be too reckless super early in the fight. I'm playing:

Spann itd -130
Spann rd 1 +185
Hedge very very small Alvey rd 1 +1050

Gonna watch some more tape today hopefully.

 

[mkess101]

A few pages back Polar mentioned that he thinks Werdum has regressed quite a bit and is chinny as well.

Fair, I can see that. I hedged a little on Alexei KO at +695, but to me that's his ONLY way of winning.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

How are judges watching the fights? From the stands? In a room watching from the cameras?

 

[Monster Meat]

So haven’t ordered a ppv in a while usually stream them from vipbox but will order 249. I see it’s not available on ppv anymore so is there a way to just pay for this without a espn+ subscription? It seems when I go to the app they are offering a bundle of ufc 249 and a ufc plus subscription but not the option to just do a one time payment of $64.99.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Fair, I can see that. I hedged a little on Alexei KO at +695, but to me that's his ONLY way of winning.

What if he rocks Werdum badly and sets up a choke on him. But ko is the biggest possibility

 

[Naught2Sixty]

What if he rocks Werdum badly and sets up a choke on him. But ko is the biggest possibility

1% chance bro

 

[ill800]

Fair, I can see that. I hedged a little on Alexei KO at +695, but to me that's his ONLY way of winning.

I thought the potential for club and sub was there as well. Much smaller chance imo

 

[Naught2Sixty]

These MFs...

 

[mkess101]

What if he rocks Werdum badly and sets up a choke on him. But ko is the biggest possibility

'Doom came out of womb (ha that rhymes) defending chokes. Even while hurt I think it's SUUUUUPER unlikely Alexei gets him.