UFC 248 Adesanya vs Romero

I don't get why people are saying Yoel by KO or it's Izzy decision.. Yoel with 5 rounds with Whittaker twice and kept them both close, went 3 hard no break rounds with Costa and kept it close... I mean he's went the distance with everyone he hasn't killed and Whittaker 2 and Costa both had arguments for him winning
 
Yeah former atomweight Waterson taking her back twice and nearly sinking a choke in helped sell me.

That and El Cucuy gave her his baseball.
That man is a trip. What's the baseball for Tony?
"In case they try to run"


Well...Waterston can grapple a little. JJ offers zero offensive grappling, none.

Weili being a Tony fan should sell you on her. That guy IS fighting personified.
 
I don't get why people are saying Yoel by KO or it's Izzy decision.. Yoel with 5 rounds with Whittaker twice and kept them both close, went 3 hard no break rounds with Costa and kept it close... I mean he's went the distance with everyone he hasn't killed and Whittaker 2 and Costa both had arguments for him winning
Yoel was a few years closer to his prime in those fights. That and Adesanya is a bit of a sniper but he is aimed at a human bolder here. Risk management for both men would Yoel timing a bomb or furry. Or Stylebender pressure boxing from range though after what he did to Whittaker the mad bastard might just try to counterstrike Romero for his own KO.
 
Good points, she has to fight near perfectly, but we´ve dseen this versus andrade, her boobjob is not good, nor that attitude but her desire for the belt could be a great thing. I think either we´ll see a ko of JJ looking embarrasing or Zhang will get out pointed and outstrick badly. If Zhang grapples and fails there´s a chance she´ll also gas herself out. I´m not sure why people think Zhang is such a monster. From what I´ve seen the betting public is all over this that its 100% bet that Zhang will win by KO and JJ has zero chance. Personally I cap JJ at 60% and think her una dec line 4.10 is worth a stab.
I´d cap Zhang ko around 30% and expect her to win around 40%, I also don´t think this KO power is that real, not sure where this came from. I think recency bias and an overperformance plays a large role, she does seem very focused and looks to improve. But I´m not sold on it, and overall I usually fade asian fighters a tad as they just don´t hold up despite being skilled from what Ive seen. In any case I think it´ll be pretty dominant from either fighter, and whoever wins we´ll have to hear the dreadful braggers and morons shouting how amazing they are...Whether thats JJ or Zhang, people are so emotional in this betting and sport.
I think JJ can keep her distance and she knows she has to watch out , and lack of 5 round experience is never a good thing whether or not she gasses. I think if Jj finds her range and she looks sharp Zhang will really be outclassed, but Zhang round 1-2 I really like to hedge, as I feel if she wins it´ll be early.

You could be right. And I'll be the first to admit that I've said before that x fighter isn't capable of hurting y fighter and been wrong (Bisping over Rockhold comes to mind). Still...I just see it as JJ needing to walk a tightrope for 25 minutes. I think Weili hits hard enough that if she lands clean, JJ is going to crumble. Remember, not only did Rose blast her and make her tap to strikes, even KK had her in real trouble in their fight. Yes, Karolina did. I don't think JJ reacts well to getting hit.
 
Well...Waterston can grapple a little. JJ offers zero offensive grappling, none.

Weili being a Tony fan should sell you on her. That guy IS fighting personified.
If ya missed it I'm big on Zhang here favorite play of the night. Though I might be biased at this point.
Yeah if Waterson can almost choke out JJ twice Zhang has a good chance and more paths to victory here.
 
It really depends on how your bets go. If you win most/all your bets and make good profits even with low sleep you will feel refreshed. If it's disastrous results you will tussle in bed, have nightmares and be zombie upon wake. This is my experience anyways.

Hey man, won't need them until the main card, but if you've got tickets you could share...:cool:
 
If ya missed it I'm big on Zhang here favorite play of the night. Though I might be biased at this point.
Yeah if Waterson can almost choke out JJ twice Zhang has a good chance and more paths to victory here.

Ahh gotcha sorry, misread your post. BOL man!
 
Romero vs Izzy not going the distance is almost the only thing I am certain about.

After some film study this morning I was leaning toward izzy ko because of superior cardio but that looks fuzzy the more I consider the fight.

Against Costa Romero's explosiveness was pretty much zapped by about 2:30 in the 2nd round. He had absorbed some body kicks and punches and his springyness was pretty much gone by this point.

Ironically I felt Romero won round 2 and 3 against Costa despite being tired. He was crafty enough to parry and roll with punches in the pocket, and get off on costa with straights and jabs. In doing this though his body as a whole was pretty stationary and lacked the mobility he had in round 1.

Conversely, I consider his fights against rockhold and weidman where his explosiveness and cardio carried into the 3rd round. In these fights he was more defensively responsible, and his strategy against rockhold in round 2 is what I expect from him against adesanya. He may be the aggressor and implement flurries, but not nearly be as predictable as Robert was.

Who am I to say Romero can't catch izzy just once and drop him ?

My thoughts are still all over the place but essentially I feel if Eugene Bareman has a strategy to zap Romero's energy from the start Adesanya can get the 4th or 5th round finish when Romero's offensive output increases, but his explosiveness and defense aren't the same

With that being said, I am still deciding what the safe bet is lol
 
Totally agree, and I think she needs to fight near perfectly as said. My heart will be pumping during that fight, never like betting such fights like this, but feel the odds should be switched, but we´ll see what happens. Dominant win from either fighter I think.
That said, I dont like you said that mkess, as I highly respect your opinion and you´ve taught me so much and one of the best bettors i´ve seen on this forum, so you saying that. That. Is. Not. Good...Thank you for sharing, always really value your insight! I just hope you´re wrong today haha

Thanks for the kind words man, I appreciate it. But my main betting rule was always, ALWAYS go with your own read first if you've put in the time and think you've capped it well. I'm not any smarter than you or anyone else. If you lose, lose because you made YOUR play, not because you got talked into or out of a bet by someone else.

I would sometimes adjust bet size, etc. based on stuff I'd read here but I'd always make my own plays, for better or for worse.
 
great win, fading grandpa vs strong mongolian at even odds.
 
Literally in the other side of every play... Waao GL I guess....

Yes, GL 2 me Would wish you luck but I'd be lying lol. I'm not confident I come out with a profit but I thnk all my plays are +EV. My most confident pick s Dariush at 65% so I could well lose every bet.
 
wow emmers is just allowing himself to get beat here. no initiative.
 
Im thinking Romero finishes Izzy by something magical inside 4 rds.
 
feels so nice to be right about magny. i had NO IDEA why he was the dog here. i mean, i know they wanted leech to win, but i thought magny would be able to finish him even. that was just an obvious wrong one imo
 
LI JINGLING IS GOING TO FUCK UP NEIL MAGNY, DROPPED A BOMB ON THAT
ouch bad bet my dude. not sure what u were thinking..? i. i bet on magny, but was a bit scared there something going on that i didnt know. upset i didnt bet more
 
ouch bad bet my dude. not sure what u were thinking..? i. i bet on magny, but was a bit scared there something going on that i didnt know. upset i didnt bet more
Don't worry he's lying. Doesn't post pre-bet slips ever.
 
What a stupid post. I looked through your posts recent week and you didn't post shit about magny but after the fight you're full on him and come in bashing losing bets.
no, u havent at all u butt.. i can pull it up if u want.

check post 172
 
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