UFC 243 Whittaker vs Adesanya

[Hellowhosthat]

His take down defence has improved and he's grew in confidence in the cage but in terms of new skills I don't think we've seen anything from him. The triangle he went for against Gastelum I suppose. I'm sure he has made improvements along the way and added things but I don't think we're going to see him shooting doubles or looking to grind against the cage, relatively speaking it's going to be the same guy from the Gastelum fight.

It can go other way, maybe the frequency is what works for him and the time out is what works for Whittaker and it's not relevant either way

Well no, but who comes back a completely different fighter inbetween fights?

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Well no, but who comes back a completely different fighter inbetween fights?

Jake Matthews.

 

[ApplesVild]

Well no, but who comes back a completely different fighter inbetween fights?

I don't think that's what I said.

 

[BigNick100]

Not bagging your argument because he hasn't consistently fought top 5 guys for several years but Izzy currently has the best TDD % in middleweight history

On the surface is looks great with that high % but when you dig into it he really got that high of % due to two fights, Tavares and Brunson.

Tavares went 1-12 on his attempts and only completes %27 td's in his career

Brunson went 0-7 spamming td's in a couple mins and only has completed %29 td's over his career.

 

[Sono07]

bruno silva is a 5'4 flyweight, here is a video of him getting outgrappled by an opponent with one leg:

Damn I thought you were exaggerating like maybe the guy had a prosthetic foot or something.
Bruno legitimately gave up a single leg TD to a man with a single leg lmao.
Time to see what Taha ISD/KO looks like.

 

[piglord]

Damn I thought you were exaggerating luke maybe the guy had a prosthetic foot or something.
Bruno legitimately gave up a single leg TD to a man with a single leg lmao.
Time to see what Taha ISD/KO looks like.

yeah i think taha is gonna wreck this guy on the feet.

 

[BigNick100]

Damn I thought you were exaggerating like maybe the guy had a prosthetic foot or something.
Bruno legitimately gave up a single leg TD to a man with a single leg lmao.
Time to see what Taha ISD/KO looks like.

Go watch his Kenney fight if you want a better look at Silva than a fight from 4 years ago. Trains with CEJ and very close to him as well

 

[lawmills2006]

On the surface is looks great with that high % but when you dig into it he really got that high of % due to two fights, Tavares and Brunson.

Tavares went 1-12 on his attempts and only completes %27 td's in his career

Brunson went 0-7 spamming td's in a couple mins and only has completed %29 td's over his career.

And he got taken down by Vettori. 3 times. I agree that people are maybe overestimating Izzys wrestling defense, just like I may be overestimating Whittakers wrestling offense.

 

[lawmills2006]

Well no, but who comes back a completely different fighter inbetween fights?

Apparently Khalil Rountre...oh wait.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Jake Matthews.

Jake should smoke this bum tomorrow.

 

[Stunna77]

I was hoping to like Bruno as a dog, but hes a flyweight, no business being at 135, while Taha is pretty bricked up at 135. To make matters worse, Bruno seems pretty content to test his striking and not push his wrestling. I was hoping to see him be more committed to a wrestling heavy appraoch to test that area of Taha's game. I don't like his chances striking against a much bigger guy who has serious power.

That said, I liked the U2.5 -105, Taha by KO or Silva has a chance to sub him if he is successful in getting it to the mat.

 

[Sono07]

yeah i think taha is gonna wreck this guy on the feet.

I agree, I like Taha's chances. Silva's grappling looks solid but I think being the smaller man will hinder him here.

Go watch his Kenney fight if you want a better look at Silva than a fight from 4 years ago. Trains with CEJ and very close to him as well

Yea I think I missed that one but I saw his other two recent fights. His grappling looked pretty strong but I think size will be a big factor. Fighting down from 145 I think Taha should be able to muscle his way out of a few positions. Even if Silva is the more technical grappler I think he'll have trouble pining the stronger Taha down.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Nobody asked for my opinion, but that never stopped me from blabbin about fights here...
Anyway... Let me share my thoughts about the main event.

1. First this championship fight was announced I thought Robert for sure will win, even if it's a 100% striking affair. The pedestrian win vs Silva and the Gastelum fight were too fresh in my memory and they looked bad for Izzy IMO. And I noticed Adesanya's tendency to be hit with counter hooks. His KO loss by Pereira was a counter hook, and Silva's best connections came from his counter right hook. Robert has a fucking killer of a leaping left hook. It's not a counter, but it's fast and tight.

2. Then I looked the tape on The Reaper and I wasn't too impressed from him either TBH. Kinda shoddy striking defence for a champion. Let me state clearly - I think he is an amazing fighter and his striking is very good, but the reality is that he is a little too hittable. It's not that obvious, because he either finishes motherfuckers fast or fights Yoel Romero, who is doing nothing for like 90% of the time and the rest 10% explodes with some wild shit. He was whooped by Hall in that 3rd round. It was bad. And in the end of the 2nd. Granted, this was one of the good showings of Hall, but still. And Adesanya is not the athlete Hall is, but he is much more subtle and crafty.

3. After some analysis of the tape I came to the conclusion that yeah, Robert is worse at striking than Israel, but he is the more complete and tested fighter, he will be sure to use his wrestling skills and take this fight to the ground, where Israel is a novice (or at least use it to mix things up). He can at least survive on the feet until he finds that takedown.
So after all that thinking I came back to my pick of Robert Whittaker to win this fight. Won't be easy, but he'll win via more experience and grit I thought.

4. Ok, great. But that offensive wrestling that I think he'll use - I actually haven't seen it! Yeah, he is a good anti-wrestler - I've seen that many times, and he used wrestling in offence against Hall, I've seen that too. But I also know that wrestling in offence is a lot harder and trickier. Using Hall's recklessness to take him down is all good, but it will be way harder to take down Israel, who from the looks of it - improves his wrestling on a very fast rate. And he is not there to be taken down in the first place, because of his good footwork.

This leads me to the conclusion that Israel is probably gonna be the new champ. I turned 180 on this fight. From being close to 100% confident in Whittaker, to now 80% confident in Adesanya.

And if you still reading this I want to say that the odds on Megan are completely insane for a girl that did nothing since she is in the UFC. And wasn't exactly anything special even before that. I hope she loses again and the few fellas that have money on dos Santos make a few bucks.

 

[Sono07]

I was hoping to like Bruno as a dog, but hes a flyweight, no business being at 135, while Taha is pretty bricked up at 135. To make matters worse, Bruno seems pretty content to test his striking and not push his wrestling. I was hoping to see him be more committed to a wrestling heavy appraoch to test that area of Taha's game. I don't like his chances striking against a much bigger guy who has serious power.

He may have a better chance striking honestly. I still don't see any clear paths to victory for him, maybe a meme sub?
Even if he is the better grappler, Taha should be able to muscle his way in and out of positions at will. While he did get controlled in his fight against Nad he showed alot of grappling experience in his own right. I really like the well timed sweep to reversal he pulled to take top position in r2. He waited until Nad shifted his weight while trying to pass into mount and completely reversed him. Probably would have won if he didn't give up a crucial TD when one of his kicks was caught in r3

 

[Sadistics]

On the surface is looks great with that high % but when you dig into it he really got that high of % due to two fights, Tavares and Brunson.

Tavares went 1-12 on his attempts and only completes %27 td's in his career

Brunson went 0-7 spamming td's in a couple mins and only has completed %29 td's over his career.

Wilkinson too, going 3/15 on TDs

 

[Sono07]

Nobody asked for my opinion, but that never stopped me from blabbin about fights here...
Anyway... Let me share my thoughts about the main event.

1. First this championship fight was announced I thought Robert for sure will win, even if it's a 100% striking affair. The pedestrian win vs Silva and the Gastelum fight were too fresh in my memory and they looked bad for Izzy IMO. And I noticed Adesanya's tendency to be hit with counter hooks. His KO loss by Pereira was a counter hook, and Silva's best connections came from his counter right hook. Robert has a fucking killer of a leaping left hook. It's not a counter, but it's fast and tight.

2. Then I looked the tape on The Reaper and I wasn't too impressed from him either TBH. Kinda shoddy striking defence for a champion. Let me state clearly - I think he is an amazing fighter and his striking is very good, but the reality is that he is a little too hittable. It's not that obvious, because he either finishes motherfuckers fast or fights Yoel Romero, who is doing nothing for like 90% of the time and the rest 10% explodes with some wild shit. He was whooped by Hall in that 3rd round. It was bad. And in the end of the 2nd. Granted, this was one of the good showings of Hall, but still. And Adesanya is not the athlete Hall is, but he is much more subtle and crafty.

3. After some analysis of the tape I came to the conclusion that yeah, Robert is worse at striking than Israel, but he is the more complete and tested fighter, he will be sure to use his wrestling skills and take this fight to the ground, where Israel is a novice (or at least use it to mix things up). He can at least survive on the feet until he finds that takedown.
So after all that thinking I came back to my pick of Robert Whittaker to win this fight. Won't be easy, but he'll win via more experience and grit I thought.

4. Ok, great. But that offensive wrestling that I think he'll use - I actually haven't seen it! Yeah, he is a good anti-wrestler - I've seen that many times, and he used wrestling in offence against Hall, I've seen that too. But I also know that wrestling in offence is a lot harder and trickier. Using Hall's recklessness to take him down is all good, but it will be way harder to take down Israel, who from the looks of it - improves his wrestling on a very fast rate. And he is not there to be taken down in the first place, because of his good footwork.

This leads me to the conclusion that Israel is probably gonna be the new champ. I turned 180 on this fight. From being close to 100% confident in Whittaker, to now 80% confident in Adesanya.

And if you still reading this I want to say that the odds on Megan are completely insane for a girl that did nothing since she is in the UFC. And wasn't exactly anything special even before that. I hope she loses again and the few fellas that have money on dos Santos make a few bucks.

You definitely have some good points. Don't know if I can agree that Izzy's striking is just all around better though. Very technical and sharper maybe but we may have to wait until tomorrow to find this one out.
I will say I liked most of what I saw against Romero. That leg kick he adapted between the first and second Romero fight may trouble Stylebenders wide base and stance switching. Whittaker can definitely be hit, both men like to counter strike though and both will hang their chins out as bait at times.
I actually like Whittakers defense better though. Always quick to raise a hand/elbow to his chin and the way he transitions from a high guard to a step in elbow just by rolling his shoulder is beautiful and one of the best blends/transitions from defense to offensive striking I think I've seen. He counters with short shots and angles off to apply his own presure very well always looking for better position. Where as Izzy prefers to pick his shots a little more and will often reset rather than risk trading in the pocket this may play against him here.

I was about 55 to 45% in favor of Whittaker starting out. The more I dig in I'm about 60-70% now. I think Izzys recent rise has caused people to forget about all the champ has done. Robs unusual timing and blended style could be a big problem for the Bender. People seem to think that Reaper has lost a step as well.
If ya haven't seen it watch his 243 open workout, excellent muscle control, looks massive and his work on the pads was impressive. I think we see the Champs best showing yet

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Wilkinson too, going 3/15 on TDs

Dude he improved alot since than, Israel Has elite tdd.

 

[Sadistics]

Dude he improved alot since than, Israel Has elite tdd.

Not saying his TDD isn't great, just adding to Nick's point that the stats are inflated

 

[BigNick100]

Why I think the lines are off for that Taha fight is for a couple reasons, Taha likes to throw with power and plants his feet a lot to throw and likes hooks a lot, and Silva has the opportunity if he times a td well to get them here, taking out the strength factor and etc for Taha compared to Silva clinching and trying to take Taha down against the fence and Taha can get his kicks caught as well, another avenue for Silva to get him down without using brute strength. Nads got him down that way b4 as well. Also Silva likes to kick himself and could keep Taha at bay at times that way and he will be the quicker guy in there as well coming up in weight. Training with CEJ doesn't hurt either, and he trains with him a ton. Yes Taha has done some training with Khabib and those guys but we dont know how often it was him actually rolling and training with Khabib, could have just bee a few sessions we dont know. Yes Taha has power and can land a bomb but I like the +200 odds here for sure . Also have we forgotten Taha was grounded by a 23-13 Otsuka, a 33 year old 135 Asian just less than 2 years ago? Got full mounted and subbed in round 3. And got the td in round 3 exactly like I said above, ducking under Taha's hook to shoot for a td. CEJ and that camp should have a nice game plan together here. or I hope so. The odds are +200 so it doesnt have to be a big bet. Even though I did go 2u at +200 hoping the odds would improve for Silva and I could reduce to 1u at better odds but still happy to let it ride at 2u if thats the case.

 

[BigNick100]

Why I think the lines are off for that Taha fight is for a couple reasons, Taha likes to throw with power and plants his feet a lot to throw and likes hooks a lot, and Silva has the opportunity if he times a td well to get them here, taking out the strength factor and etc for Taha compared to Silva clinching and trying to take Taha down against the fence and Taha can get his kicks caught as well, another avenue for Silva to get him down without using brute strength. Nads got him down that way b4 as well. Also Silva likes to kick himself and could keep Taha at bay at times that way and he will be the quicker guy in there as well coming up in weight. Training with CEJ doesn't hurt either, and he trains with him a ton. Yes Taha has done some training with Khabib and those guys but we dont know how often it was him actually rolling and training with Khabib, could have just bee a few sessions we dont know. Yes Taha has power and can land a bomb but I like the +200 odds here for sure . Also have we forgotten Taha was grounded by a 23-13 Otsuka, a 33 year old 135 Asian just less than 2 years ago? Got full mounted and subbed in round 3. And got the td in round 3 exactly like I said above, ducking under Taha's hook to shoot for a td. CEJ and that camp should have a nice game plan together here. or I hope so. The odds are +200 so it doesnt have to be a big bet. Even though I did go 2u at +200 hoping the odds would improve for Silva and I could reduce to 1u at better odds but still happy to let it ride at 2u if thats the case.

CEJ is Henry Cejudo btw for some that many be wondering who CEJ is, aka Triple Champ,aka King of Cringe lol