UFC 240 Holloway vs Edgar Official Bets

[Soccer Steve]

Max Round 4 - 0.25u for 2.5u (+1000)
Max Round 5 - 0.25u for 4u (+1600)
Over 3 Rounds - 2u for 1.43u (-140)

Cyborg ML - 2.5u for 0.59u (-425)
Cyborg ITD - 3u for 1u (-300)

Robertson ML - 2u for 1.38u (-145)
Frota NSC - 2.5u for 2.08u (-120)

Pantoja Decision - 1u for 1.5u (+150)

Araujo ML - 3u for 1.75u (-170)

Tsarukyan ML - 5u for 2.62u (-190)

Neal ML - 4u for 2.21u (-180)
Neal ITD - 1u for 0.5u (-200)

Choi ML - 1.5u for 2.18u (+145)

Koch ML - 5u for 5.78u (+115)
Koch Submission - 0.5u for 2.75u (+550)

Jotko ML - 3u for 1.76u (-172)
Barriault NSC - 2.5u for 1.5u (-167)

Dawodu Round 3 - 0.25u for 2.75u (+1100)

Cyborg ITD + Holloway-Edgar O2.5 - 3.11u for 3.41u
Holloway + Neal + Dawodu + Frota NSC - 3.4u for 9.41u
Holloway-Edgar O1.5 + Tsarukyan Decision + Neal ML + Cyborg NSC - 1u for 2.53u

Way too much action but whatever. I'll be there so I forced plays because it should stave off the urge to drunk-dial. Hoping to steal from the books on the live bet advantage though. BOL everyone.

 

[Dooze]

1u Holloway + Cyborg win via KO @ 3.50
0.5U Holloway + Cyborg + Neal via KO @ 5.50
0.5U Hakeem KO @ 2.10
1U Tucker @ 1.9
0.25U Figueiredo r2 @ 9.5
0.25U Figueiredo r3 @ 17
0.5U Alexis Davis dec @ 3.40

 

[oloke46]

Edgar 0.4u @4.00

Spencer 0.4u @5.50

Edgar + Spencer 0.2u @22.00

Tsarukyan 4u @ 1.57

 

[And]

0.6u Edgar ML +359 to win 2.154u

0.2u Spencer ML +485 to win 0.97u
0.1u Justino Dec. +900 to win 0.9u

3.1u Neal ML -155 to win 2u

1u OAM ML +204 to win 2.04u
0.2u OAM ITD +640 to win 1.28u

1u Davis ML +227 to win 2.27u
0.5u Davis (SC=NA) +354 to win 1.77u
0.1u Davis ITD +850 to win 0.85u
0.1u Davis KO/TKO/DQ +1453 to win 1.453u

0.5u Horie ML +340 to win 1.7u
0.1u Horie KO/TKO/DQ +650 to win 0.65u

2.3u Pantoja ML -115 to win 2u
0.1u Figueiredo R3 +1600 to win 1.6u

3u Frota ML +130 to win 3.9u
0.55u Frota (SC=NA) -105 to win 0.5u

 

[hugdeeznuts]

Arman
Cyborg/Max
Viviane by decision
Jotko
Neal/Hakeem
Choi
Pantoja
Koch
Frota

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Damn am I annoyed that Lemos vs. Boser was canceled. At least a 3u bet there at -170 or better. Almost as annoyed as I am at the price I got on Frota. Oh well. Still insanely good value at evens.

4u on Frota at +100
2.1u on Cyborg by TKO/KO at -195

Might play Araujo-Davis for a small amount.

 

[mposhtkouhi]

Koch-145 EASY MONEY!!!!!!!

 

[null]

UFC 240 Risk $7,144.88

Frankie Edgar +5½ points (+145) $100.00 for $145.00
Not Max Holloway inside distance (-120) $120.00 for $100.00
Frankie Edgar/Max Holloway Over 3½ (-115) $115.00 for $100.00
Frankie Edgar/Max Holloway Over 3½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00
Frankie Edgar/Max Holloway fight goes distance (+150) $100.00 for $150.00
Max Holloway wins by decision or technical decision (+260) $100.00 for $260.00
Frankie Edgar/Max Holloway Draw (+8000) $25.00 for $2,000.00

Chris Cyborg (-528) vs Felicia Spencer $1,056.00 for $200.00
Chris Cyborg -3½ points (-400) vs Felicia Spencer $400.00 for $100.00
Chris Cyborg wins inside distance ( -210) $420.00 for $200.00
Chris Cyborg wins inside distance (-260) $260.00 for $100.00
Chris Cyborg/Felicia Spencer Under 1½ (-180) $360.00 $200.00
Chris Cyborg/Felicia Spencer Under 1½ (-185) $185.00 for $100.00
Chris Cyborg/Felicia Spencer Under 1½ (-185) $185.00 for $100.00

Geoff Neal/Niko Price Under 1½ (-122) $122.00 for $100.00

Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs Arman Tsarukyan: No Bet

Krzysztof Jotko (-160) vs Marc-Andre Barriault $320.00 for $200.00
Krzysztof Jotko (-165) vs Marc-Andre Barriault $330.00 for $200.00
Marc-Andre Barriault wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+393) $85.00 for $334.05
Marc-Andre Barriault wins in round 2 (+1100) $10.00 for $110.00
Marc-Andre Barriault wins in round 2 (+1000) $10.00 for $200.00
Marc-Andre Barriault wins in round 3 (+2000) $20.00 for $400.00
Krzysztof Jotko wins by decision (+150) $100.00 for $150.00

Alexis Davis (+170) vs Viviane Araujo $100.00 for $170.00
Alexis Davis (+175) vs Viviane Araujo $100.00 for $175.00
Alexis Davis +3½ points (-130) $130.00 for $100.00
Alexis Davis wins in round 3 (+2500) $10.00 for $250.00

Hakeem Dawodu (-357) vs Yoshinori Horie $357.14 for $100.00
Hakeem Dawodu wins in round 2 (+500) $20.00 for $100.00
Hakeem Dawodu wins in round 3 (+1100) $20.00 for $220.00
Hakeem Dawodu/Yoshinori Horie Under 2½ (-120) $120.00 for $100.00
Yoshinori Horie wins by TKO/KO (+598) $50.00 for $299.00
Yoshinori Horie wins in round 1 (+1000) $15.00 for $150.00
Hakeem Dawodu/Yoshinori Horie completes one full round (-230) $230.00 for $100.00

Seung Woo Choi (-125) vs Gavin Tucker $125.00 for $100.00
Seung Woo Choi (-115) vs Gavin Tucker $115.00 for $100.00
Seung Woo Choi wins by TKO/KO (+280) $75.00 for $210.00

Alexandre Pantoja (-120) vs Deivison Figueiredo $230.00 for $200.00
Alexandre Pantoja/Deiveson Figueiredo Over 2½ (-200) $400.00 for $200.00

Gillian Robertson (-130) vs Sarah Frota $259.74 for $200.00

Kyle Stewart (-115) vs Erik Koch $230.00 for $200.00
Kyle Stewart wins in round 3 (+1600) $10.00 for $160.00

 

[Deleted member 560591]

got smashed lol. i hate this shitty card and the next one.

betting low level fighters like barriault or frota was pretty dumb in hindsight. frota is like cachoeira but a little better. robertson and jotko are still more skilled and in general you should go by skill, not by narratives and assumptions.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

got smashed lol. i hate this shitty card and the next one.

betting low level fighters like barriault or frota was pretty dumb in hindsight. frota is like cachoeira but a little better. robertson and jotko are still more skilled and in general you should go by skill, not by narratives and assumptions.

View attachment 621935

Eh, don't be so hard on yourself. I think Frota was a perfectly fine bet based on the tape AS WELL AS the fact that Frota showed far, far more improvement against Souza than Robertson did against Macedo.

That was a fight won and lost in training camp. Robertson totally changed her approach from the top, prioritizing position over submission for the first time in her career and learning GNP, and vastly improved her wrestling, while Frota came in with a shit gameplan, fought like an idiot from the bottom, and had far worse cardio than against Souza.

Not much you can do to predict that unless you watch one or both fighters in camp day to day.

 

[And]

0.6u Edgar ML +359 to win 2.154u

0.2u Spencer ML +485 to win 0.97u
0.1u Justino Dec. +900 to win 0.9u

3.1u Neal ML -155 to win 2u

1u OAM ML +204 to win 2.04u
0.2u OAM ITD +640 to win 1.28u

1u Davis ML +227 to win 2.27u
0.5u Davis (SC=NA) +354 to win 1.77u
0.1u Davis ITD +850 to win 0.85u
0.1u Davis KO/TKO/DQ +1453 to win 1.453u

0.5u Horie ML +340 to win 1.7u
0.1u Horie KO/TKO/DQ +650 to win 0.65u

2.3u Pantoja ML -115 to win 2u
0.1u Figueiredo R3 +1600 to win 1.6u

3u Frota ML +130 to win 3.9u
0.55u Frota (SC=NA) -105 to win 0.5u

Result: -6.55u

 

[ApplesVild]

Had a shit one, can't be arsed posting slips

 

[Doc R]

2U price +215.
1U price +265

That’s all on this one

Edit: added parlays with cyborg getting a R1 finish

eh sucked ass. overly confident on borg' and lossed 7u on parlays surrounding her. -10U total. broke dead even on live bets, dont have a knack for those yet

 

[B2000829]

1u Edgar +370
2u on rest
Cyborg - 400
Tucker +104
Arman - 140
Araujo - 160

Reasonable night, think Edgar loses that fight 10/10 now, but there were enough questions prior it seemed good value.
Up +4 Units tonight.

 

[Austisthunder]

4U Handz of steel -180

3U -Holloway-350

2U vivi -175

Up roughly 4U. Yawn

 

[Deleted member 560591]

Eh, don't be so hard on yourself. I think Frota was a perfectly fine bet based on the tape AS WELL AS the fact that Frota showed far, far more improvement against Souza than Robertson did against Macedo.

That was a fight won and lost in training camp. Robertson totally changed her approach from the top, prioritizing position over submission for the first time in her career and learning GNP, and vastly improved her wrestling, while Frota came in with a shit gameplan, fought like an idiot from the bottom, and had far worse cardio than against Souza.

Not much you can do to predict that unless you watch one or both fighters in camp day to day.

i underestimated the great din thomas. he turned robertson into khabib in a few months lol. i was okay with frota losing but i never saw her getting finished. it is what it is.

 

[Cockadoodle]

Holloway Dec - 1u for 3u
Holloway R4,5 Dec - 1u for 1.6u
Edgar Dec - .5u for 2.75u

Spencer ML - 1u for 4.5u
Spencer Sub - .25u for 2.25u
FGTD - .5u for 2.5u

Price ML - 1u for 2.6u

OAM ML - 1u for 1.73u

Barriault ML - 1u for 1.35u

Davis ML - 2u for 4.1u Live hedged to -.5u

Horie ML - 1u for 2.6u

Tucker ML - 1u for .87u

Figueiredo ML 1u for .87u

Frota ML - 1u for 1u
Frota/Rob FGTD - 1u for 1.65u

Stewart ML - 1u for 1u

Looks like I have a problem..
1) i didnt really like the card but it appears I have bet on every fight
2) its 10/11 dogs

I have been wanting to back out of my OAM bet will just see what the line does
Good luck to everyone

0.2u cant expect much more that I got.. bet on a bunch of dogs, had some ok looks but most of them lost. On another night one or two could have gone the other way and it would be a decent profit.

Max is such a dude cant wait for the Volkanovski fight which will be similar to Frankie but much more dangerous.
I hope its not in Australia now, sour grapes since they moved the event to Melbourne I cant make it grrrr

Hope everyone did well

 

[Jordan3399]

Up a bit over 6u, all over the place with livebets hedging but went decent overall with the last couple fights.

Shame about Frankie, did way better than what most people expected at least. Hope he goes to 135 now.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Damn am I annoyed that Lemos vs. Boser was canceled. At least a 3u bet there at -170 or better. Almost as annoyed as I am at the price I got on Frota. Oh well. Still insanely good value at evens.

4u on Frota at +100
2.1u on Cyborg by TKO/KO at -195

Might play Araujo-Davis for a small amount.

Placed 0.8u on Araujo at +150 after round 2, but then gave back most of those winnings by putting 0.9u on Barrieult at -110 after round 1. So +0.3u from live-betting, and a total of -5.8u on the night.

No regrets about the Frota bet; as noted above, it was a fight won and lost in training camp, and illustrates the main difficulty of betting WMMA; major improvement between fights by one of the participants, often unpredictably so. (Note how little Robertson improved against Macedo, and then the huge jump here)

The Cyborg bet was the ultimate tease; Cyborg had Spencer badly hurt at least half a dozen times and was a few good connects away from having it stopped.

However, Spencer has a very tough chin, is very tough mentally (not cracking and giving up the way Evinger, Smith, Lansberg, and Kunitskaya did), and fought very intelligently, while Cyborg allowed herself to get clinched too easily.

The one lesson to take here is extra wariness when betting against a girl training at ATT. Especially when her opponent trains at a crappy Brazilian team like Astra.

Unlike others though, I'm pretty excited about the next DWTCS as well as the card next weekend. Great opportunity to win back some of those losses and then some.

 

[Sadistics]

Holloway -286 $255
Holloway DEC +250 $100
Holloway/Edgar O3.5 -106 $500

Cyborg -528 $3000

Neal/Price U1.5 -130 $350

Tsarukyan -197 $980
Tsarukyan/OAM GTD -145 $600

Barriault +143 $200
Barriault NSC -155 $310
Jotko/Barriault O2.5 -164 $400

Araujo -180 $450

Choi +151 $650

Frota +120 $330
Frota/Robertson O1.5 -146 $300

Koch +145 $300

Holloway (-286) + Shevchenko (-1000) -206 $745

Holtzman (-210) + Cyborg (-600) -138 $700

Neal (-222) + Shevchenko (-588) + Jedrzjejczyk (-222) +146 $700


Fade me! Hate most of my action this card, especially Cyborg which just isn't worth the risk. As usual, parlays were only made to circumvent limits. Been a rough Q2, -$4839 after a +$21056 Q1. Two more events in this quarter to turn it around with this event and DWCS. Heading into the woods for a while after this card to clear my head and reset, will probably miss the next one.

+$3105. A losing streak really is a mindfuck, happy to get back on track, though I still need to see consistency.

Made some good money on LB, as well as a little juiced lotto, just wish LB limits were higher



As a bonus I've got $1400 worth of parlays moving on