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UFC 229: McGregor vs Khabib

Danis_champ said:
Yep this too he emptied his gas tank quite quickly. Don't remember him having such a shitty cardio maybe because of weight cut?
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Yeah it was certanily due to the weightcut, he missed weight, looked like shit on the scales and said he never would fight in 155 again
 
Interesting props.
 

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Pettis on average has looked really bad in recent years. Tony has the style to make him crumble, just like Poirier did. The line is too juiced for a guy coming off such a major injury, so smallish plays on Pettis for the (unlikely) upset may be warranted, but if Tony shows up looking anything like his old self he is 100% going to break Pettis.
 
$20 on khabib at $1.62
$20 on khabib by KO at $4.50
$20 on khabib 2nd round at $5.50
$40 on khabib and letnz by KO at $27.70
 
volkov isn't used to fighting black but other than that he should win. im putting like 1500 on him and then if that goes good probably bet on khabib since the betting lines hopefully gets tighter closer to the fight. normally i wanna bet on slight underdogs but these are good odds for these guys.
 
Danis_champ said:
Dude I like your Herrig bet but picking Pettis here is wishful thinking. Pettis only looked good in 1 fight of his last 8 fights and this against Chiesa who is barely top 15 fighter. You sound like prime Pettis is back or something. Last time when Pettis finished someone standing up was almost 6 years ago... against weak body Cerrone. So Tony was losing to RDA? But what did RDA do to Pettis? Even with a bum leg I'd still pick Tony all day he is a tough bastard and he is gonna kick Pettis's ass.
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t6p said:
Personally, I don't agree with the sentiment that Pettis is a bad matchup for Ferguson. In fact, I think there's a argument that the opposite is true. Yes, Pettis has struggled with guys who can grind/take him down. But, he also doesn't deal with pressure well, has a tendency to get backed up to the fence and isn't nearly as effective off his back foot. He's also shown a tendency to slow down later in fights. Ferguson brings more pressure and pushes a higher pace than maybe anyone else in the division.

I think the argument for Pettis here is more based around Ferguson's tendency to be reckless at times. Pettis is so sneaky with his submission game and Ferguson definitely puts himself in dangerous spots.

All that said, I do agree that at these prices Pettis is worth a small play. I opted to play his scorecards = no action line at +333 over his ML since I think his chances of winning a decision here are pretty low. I also stabbed his sub line at +1235.
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I should've worded my statement better. I think Pettis poses more threats to Tony than most people in the top 5 do, and I think Ferguson is arguably the best matchup for Pettis in the top 5.

Gun to my head, I'm picking Tony 10 times out of 10. However, as you both know, if the odds seem a little lopsided, then you have to take advantage of them.

I think betting on Tony at -350(where the line was a few days ago), in his words is, "Fuckin' ridiculous". He's coming off of an injury, and he gets hit a lot. Kevin Lee's sub par striking dropped him.

He's not going to take Pettis down. He's not going to throw a bunch of leg kicks. He'll move forward and pressure Pettis. Will Pettis crumble under the pressure like he usually does against pressure fighters? Quite possibly. But can Pettis land a counter while he's being pressured backwards? Absolutely.

That's why I see value in Pettis +250. I wouldn't throw a lot on it, but I'll be putting 200$ on him. It's enough to where if I win, I'll be quite happy, and if I lose, it's not enough money to make me upset by any means.
 
Going to bet Conor wins 1,2,3 @ +200
Eitber fights wins first Round @ +400
 
Naught2Sixty said:
Added .5u on Formiga at +150. He's my favorite dog on the card.
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Damn, odds dropped just when I finished watching tape. I'm small on Formiga at +140 and thinking about doing more. I'm not sure how much Pettis' tdd and ground game has improved. They didn't look very impressive against Moreno, but Cejudo couldn't get hooks in and Benavidez had hard time getting him down. Then again, maybe Cejudo was happy to control wrestling style and Benavidez is just getting old and slow.
 
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PuertoRican said:
You're too busy in the boxing forum to truly care about the MMA betting forum. :rolleyes:
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My boy PR! Good to see you bruh. Yeah I been away for awhile, still got a bet on Conor for this weekend. That's about it tho. Who you on?
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
My boy PR! Good to see you bruh. Yeah I been away for awhile, still got a bet on Conor for this weekend. That's about it tho. Who you on?
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You know I'm still here. Busy as hell so haven't been as active the last few weeks. And will miss this card live due to unavoidable family obligations ugh.

But I like Khabib to win here. Even with his great footwork and timing I just don't know how Conor keeps Khabib off him. And Conor I don't think offers enough off his back to stop the onslaught once he's taken down.
 
mkess101 said:
You know I'm still here. Busy as hell so haven't been as active the last few weeks. And will miss this card live due to unavoidable family obligations ugh.

But I like Khabib to win here. Even with his great footwork and timing I just don't know how Conor keeps Khabib off him. And Conor I don't think offers enough off his back to stop the onslaught once he's taken down.
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Miiiiike! Good to see you sir. I gotta post in here a bit more often even tho I don't bet as much mma anymore. New guys if you aren't taking this man's plays into consideration you're doing yourself a disservice. Seriously.

2. I agree the Conor bet is a risky one, Khabib been more active and HUGE ground advantage. I like Conor on the feet due to his great boxing by mma standards and Khabib's recklessness on the feet but totally understand the argument for Khabib. He's really fucking good at grappling and he doesn't seem to lose [even tho I thought Gleison beat him].

3. Congrats on your Brewers. I need my Yanks to pull through or I'm gonna be sad.
 
Yotsuya said:
Damn, odds dropped just when I finished watching tape. I'm small on Formiga at +140 and thinking about doing more. I'm not sure how much Pettis' tdd and ground game has improved. They didn't look very impressive against Moreno, but Cejudo couldn't get hooks in and Benavidez had hard time getting him down. Then again, maybe Cejudo was happy to control wrestling style and Benavidez is just getting old and slow.
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I kind of like the Formiga sub +600 play over the Formiga ML play at that price. Sub's gotta be the overwhelming majority of his wins here.
 
Conor bcuz the king is back

Pettis bcuz Pettis is back

OSP bcuz pedro win won my heart back

Volkan bcuz derrick is shit

Fellice cuz muya thai > karate

Ladd bcuz the age factor and ladd is a legit prospect

Lina bcuz of the volume and clintch

Too much of a fanboi to bet anything but this 8 legged parley. But i do belive this is an card to put mma back on the mainstream minds cuz its gonna be the best show in a mans memory

Edit. Frogt lil pettis will get the win here for sure
 
Hey guys help me on this research. Ladd vs Evinger.
So far I'm under impression that Ladd is a beast on the mat but turns out she's just a purple belt. No mention of Evinger's BJJ anywhere but she has faced stronger competition than Ladd and asides her last loss to Cyborg, seems very solid. Ugh... With Evinger's wrestling as well could neutralize Ladds BJJ and be actually a great bet.
 
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