UFC 229: McGregor vs Khabib

[heyimacrab]

Khabib in 5

 

[lifeisgood12345]

What makes you think that 9 months isn't enough time to rehab an ACL tear without knowing how severe it is? There are different grades of ligament injury. If it's a Grade I or II, she might've only needed a month or two off. If it was a complete tear with damage to other structures, we probably would've heard that she was going through surgery for repair.

We can only speculate for now. What we do know is that Evinger was ready to fight Vieira last month, and now has an extra 6 weeks or so to prepare. She also was wearing knee protection leading up to the scrapped Vieira fight but maybe that was just abundance of caution.

Evinger took a late notice beating from Cyborg to save a main event. She knows she doesn't have to rush into any UFC fights because the UFC owes her one. Any injury is a concern but there's no evidence to support your theory that she's rushing into a fight injured without being sufficiently recovered.

I have never heard of in any sport of anybody needing just a month or two off from an ACL tear. It's always close to a full year off, and the athletes sometimes need two full years to return to their old form.

And of course younger people recover faster than older ones, and Evinger is pretty f'n old.

Tonya needs to rush because she is making her UFC debut at 37 (not counting Cyborg beatdown). If she wants to win a title at 135, she needs to be extremely active and start winning fights at a very fast rate.

 

[turbozed]

Favouring Evinger over Ladd - I think most of this has been covered anyway but just to reinforce the groupthink:

they are both red-haired fighters win their fights by taking opponents down, climbing on top, and GNPing prettier girls until they squeal, which they both seem to take some kind of unnatural pleasure in. I've not seen them win without doing that, and they both have just about always done that, over the last 5 years.

Ladd's best win is Eubanks who is a physically strong fighter and credentialed grappler, but has a BJJ base. Ladd was able to score points on the feet, and fight smart on the mat scoring TDs and getting enough control to rack up points, but disengaging/standing up before Eubanks could try any significant sub attempts or sweeps on the mat. The fight was at 135, Eubanks is fighting at 125 currently.
Ladd's other wins are not close to the calibre of Evinger.

Ladd's only loss as a pro or amateur is to Cynthia Calvillo, who is also a pressure grappler like Ladd or Evinger. Ladd was 19, but I think it's stylistically still relevant. Calvillo is now fighting at 115, and she has weak takedowns and striking.

Unlike any of Ladd's previous opponents (or Ladd herself), Evinger has a significant background in wrestling which is crucial since the fight will certainly (according to past form anyway) be decided by who gets TDs and climbs on top. Striking wise, Evinger may not be a striker but she is good at timing a looping right haymaker (mixed in with the TD threat) which has actually dropped better strikers more than once. Ladd could be surprised by that.
Evinger is not a flake (like, say, Randa Markos *ahem*) and will be nonstop in trying to press her gameplan (eg the Cyborg fight where she kept trying to score takedowns and never gave up against a bigger, stronger man despite the hopelessness of it).
Finally, Evinger obviously has a lot more MMA experience then Ladd or Ladd's past opponents.

Some reasons for doubting Evinger: mostly physical: i) she is old (37) (ii) she is coming off a major knee injury (torn ACL) (iii) while she has old lesbian truck driver strength, she is not exactly a physical specimen, combined with ageing; meanwhile Ladd is in the prime of youth and looking pretty fooking buff lately.
A possibly bigger problem: iv) she likes to get subbed every now and then. After the Pennington sub she supposedly worked a lot on tightening up that area of her game, but she still got subbed by a random Russian fitness kickboxer who herself had just lost to an undersized regional can by armbar. Still, Evinger has been completely dominant in her grappling outside of that. We haven't seen Ladd on her back and I doubt she'll sub Evinger from there, but she might get a guillotine or something on the feet.
But, at now over 2.40 (!) Evinger must be good enough for at least 1-2u of anybody's money I'd say. If she wasn't old and unappealing and fighting a hyped undefeated young fighter she might be 1.60-1.75 range I guess, maybe even 1.50.

Some other Top Trivia about Tonya Evinger:
- she beat up CagePotato's bus driver aunt in a drunken brawl
- her favorite pickup line (allegedly):
"I have a long middle finger and a knife. Its your choice which of them is going inside you tonight."
(Probably not recommended for guys in the #metoo era. Or any era where police exist)

Extra bonus trivia:
Aspen Ladd's mother is a big time MILF

Thanks for sharing. I don't really think Evinger's striking is all that bad. It kind of reminds me of Dan Henderson with the big looping right hand that seems like it shouldn't land but somehow does. Ladd, on the other hand, just marches forward and throws technically sound strikes, but it feels like she just pours on volume like she's hitting pads. It certainly looks better, but who knows if she can actually go beyond throwing the same combinations repeatedly and adjust to whatever weirdness Evinger throws at her.

More importantly is that Evinger looks to be able to mix up her striking and grappling better than Ladd. When Evinger sees an opening, she instinctively goes for it. Her wrestling doesn't look pretty at all either, but for some reason she always gets her opponent to the mat with her on top. Compare this to Ladd that can go minute at a time focusing on one aspect of the game like she had blinders on. This was most apparent in her fight with Lina where she chose to just clinch with Lina for 5 minutes until her corner told her to take Lina down. Instead of looking to setup a takedown with strikes in Rd2, she just goes straight for a TD immediately. This makes me think that, though she's skilled in different areas, she still keeps her skills rather compartmentalized.

 

[turbozed]

I have never heard of in any sport of anybody needing just a month or two off from an ACL tear. It's always close to a full year off, and the athletes sometimes need two full years to return to their old form.

And of course younger people recover faster than older ones, and Evinger is pretty f'n old.

Tonya needs to rush because she is making her UFC debut at 37 (not counting Cyborg beatdown). If she wants to win a title at 135, she needs to be extremely active and start winning fights at a very fast rate.

The ACL is comprised of two bundles of fibers. It's not like a rubber band where it's a singular structure that snaps like an on/off switch. There are different grades of ACL sprains. Grade I is just damage or stretching of some fibers. Grade II is a partial tearing of some of these bundles. Grade III is a complete tear of the fiber bundles. If it was a Grade 3 tear, then it almost always requires surgery, and rehabbing from the surgery will take that longer period of time. 1 year is a long time for a pro athlete to return to activity, especially with the best rehab and protocols available to them. Regular non athletes can recover from an ACL tear in less than a year. More than likely when you make your casual observations that athletes are out for a year, it's likely due to the fact that these athletes play in a seasonal sport. If you tear your ACL in the NFL, obviously you can't play until next year because you won't recover in 16 weeks. In basketball it's the same deal as the season only lasts for less than 6 months.

Anyway, I just had an MRI on my knee and I'm recovering from a tendon or ligament strain so I've read a ton on the topic.

 

[turbozed]

Hmm looks like she got her knee surgery late in February so probably a Grade 3 tear. So she's had 7 months to recovery from surgery. 6 months is usually the minimum time needed to return to sports activity so it's definitely a concern. Likely she won't be 100%.

Then again, Tony had knee surgery in early April so he's only had 6 months to recover, and his ligament tore off the freakin bone. It's hard to take doctor's recommendations seriously when it comes to recovery time because it usually applies to sedentary patients who do very little to no rehab, and have generally poor nutrition and support.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Follow this dude if you're not. Always has cool little highlights of fights.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Follow this dude if you're not. Always has cool little highlights of fights.

That dude is 3-6 with 3 sub wins

Yeah it was 7 years ago and not the biggest punch...but getting clipped by a submission specialist like that in your 13th pro fight is just not a good look.

You can't find Conor showing vulnerability like that vs inferior competition EVER

 

[Naught2Sixty]

That dude is 3-6 with 3 sub wins

Yeah it was 7 years ago and not the biggest punch...but getting clipped by a submission specialist like that in your 13th pro fight is just not a good look.

You can't find Conor showing vulnerability like that vs inferior competition EVER

Getting choked by the boxer Joe Duffy doesn't count?

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Getting choked by the boxer Joe Duffy doesn't count?

8 years ago against a guy who now has 10 career subs and a solid UFC career? That's no big deal.

Since he entered UFC, he has experienced zero adversity against anybody but Nate + Mendes. Khabib had major issues with Tibau, looked shaky vs Healy, got clipped early vs MJ, looked meh last 3 rounds vs Al.

They are both top of the food chain and neither has many blemishes in their fights, but IMO Khabib has shown more moments of weakness + vulnerability in spite of fighting a much weaker schedule over his career

 

[P4p Islam]

Stuffing Eddie's attempts definitely means something. Eddie is a solid wrestler, and if Conor had truly bad takedown D he would have been put on the canvas a few times.

Solidly good takedown D and elite striking power may be all it takes to make takedowns extremely difficult for Khabib once these guys get slippery and sweaty.

Eddie is not a solid wrestler. He absolutely struggled to take pettis down.


Aside from mendes, who has conor ever fought that had threatening takedowns?

 

[turbozed]

That dude is 3-6 with 3 sub wins

Yeah it was 7 years ago and not the biggest punch...but getting clipped by a submission specialist like that in your 13th pro fight is just not a good look.

You can't find Conor showing vulnerability like that vs inferior competition EVER

The way it looks to me is that he ran into a jab to his chest that off balanced him and the rear hand didn't even land. If people call this getting clipped these days then people are getting clipped every couple of seconds at my sparring practice.

 

[Oblivian]

That dude is 3-6 with 3 sub wins

Yeah it was 7 years ago and not the biggest punch...but getting clipped by a submission specialist like that in your 13th pro fight is just not a good look.

You can't find Conor showing vulnerability like that vs inferior competition EVER

You have to put things into context here. Conor was supposed to beat Diaz in the first fight on short notice pretty easily. Then in the second fight, Conor wins by 2 points in a 5 round fight. Diaz is a solid fighter, but some guys have made it look easy vs. him (RDA, Bendo, Rory). I don't think you can paint a picture with McGregor as if he's looked anywhere close to flawless. I'd say Nate is without a doubt a step or two below Khabib.

 

[ill800]

You have to put things into context here. Conor was supposed to beat Diaz in the first fight on short notice pretty easily. Then in the second fight, Conor wins by 2 points in a 5 round fight. Diaz is a solid fighter, but some guys have made it look easy vs. him (RDA, Bendo, Rory). I don't think you can paint a picture with McGregor as if he's looked anywhere close to flawless. I'd say Nate is without a doubt a step or two below Khabib.

Styles make fights and Diaz is more than a few steps above khabib in striking

And to top it off he has an iron chin. Nobody has ever eaten Conor’s punches like that. Conor was absolutely blasting him In the early rounds .

 

[Stunna77]

Styles make fights and Diaz is more than a few steps above khabib in striking

And to top it off he has an iron chin. Nobody has ever eaten Conor’s punches like that. Conor was absolutely blasting him In the early rounds .

Not quite understanding the styles make fights as a favorable Conor argument here. Nate gave him the exact fight he wants and Khabib will be looking to do the opposite. We also don't know much about Khabib's chin. You can say MJ stunned him, but is that a bad thing? MJ also one-punched Poirier who is durable AF.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Not quite understanding the styles make fights as a favorable Conor argument here. Nate gave him the exact fight he wants and Khabib will be looking to do the opposite. We also don't know much about Khabib's chin. You can say MJ stunned him, but is that a bad thing? MJ also one-punched Poirier who is durable AF.

Nate has a great chin at 155 in spite of being big for the class, at 170 his chin is next level. And his 77" reach and striking ability makes it hard to get inside and land flush.

Khabib's chin is probably not great based on how much weight he cuts. And his short arms and lack of striking will make it hard to defend against Conor's striking when they are standing up.

MJ's striking gave Khabib issues looking for an opportunity to shoot for the takedown. Even in round 2 Khabib was struggling to get it to the ground until MJ pulled guard and went for a crappy guillotine attempt. Same issues came up vs Iaquinta where Khabib was only comfortable diving for the same single leg.

He didn't have any problems vs Barboza bc Barboza has no power in his hands.

And perhaps the biggest point is from the Mendes fight. Mendes was getting takedowns at will and still lost bc it's much easier to get one big punch than 25 mins of position control.

I believe this clash of styles favors Conor very clearly

 

[P4p Islam]

Nate has a great chin at 155 in spite of being big for the class, at 170 his chin is next level. And his 77" reach and striking ability makes it hard to get inside and land flush.

Khabib's chin is probably not great based on how much weight he cuts. And his short arms and lack of striking will make it hard to defend against Conor's striking when they are standing up.

MJ's striking gave Khabib issues looking for an opportunity to shoot for the takedown. Even in round 2 Khabib was struggling to get it to the ground until MJ pulled guard and went for a crappy guillotine attempt. Same issues came up vs Iaquinta where Khabib was only comfortable diving for the same single leg.

He didn't have any problems vs Barboza bc Barboza has no power in his hands.

And perhaps the biggest point is from the Mendes fight. Mendes was getting takedowns at will and still lost bc it's much easier to get one big punch than 25 mins of position control.

I believe this clash of styles favors Conor very clearly

I legit cant tell if you are trolling

 

[Stunna77]

Nate has a great chin at 155 in spite of being big for the class, at 170 his chin is next level. And his 77" reach and striking ability makes it hard to get inside and land flush.

Khabib's chin is probably not great based on how much weight he cuts. And his short arms and lack of striking will make it hard to defend against Conor's striking when they are standing up.

MJ's striking gave Khabib issues looking for an opportunity to shoot for the takedown. Even in round 2 Khabib was struggling to get it to the ground until MJ pulled guard and went for a crappy guillotine attempt. Same issues came up vs Iaquinta where Khabib was only comfortable diving for the same single leg.

He didn't have any problems vs Barboza bc Barboza has no power in his hands.

And perhaps the biggest point is from the Mendes fight. Mendes was getting takedowns at will and still lost bc it's much easier to get one big punch than 25 mins of position control.

I believe this clash of styles favors Conor very clearly

Mendes lost because he gassed on short notice. He was absolutely having his way with Conor prior to gassing. I am not advocating a play on anyone here BTW, just thought it was odd to say that Nate is a worse style matchup for Conor than Khabib..

 

[ill800]

Not quite understanding the styles make fights as a favorable Conor argument here. Nate gave him the exact fight he wants and Khabib will be looking to do the opposite. We also don't know much about Khabib's chin. You can say MJ stunned him, but is that a bad thing? MJ also one-punched Poirier who is durable AF.

I was saying that in reference to Diaz. He gets beat by wrestlers. Stylistically Mcgregor was a good matchup for him.

McGregor vs Khabib style match up I’d say could potentially be bad for Conor. But khabib is going to have to be able to handle Mcgregors power. I don’t see many scenarios that don’t involve khabib taking a clean shot

On the feet Mcgregor is a bad matchup for khabib. On the ground it’s the opposite.

At +150-165 I’m betting small that he doesn’t and that Mcgregor can catch him. He’s been able to catch everybody.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Anyone consider the men behind the fighter between Conor/Khabib as a big factor? Who the hell is successful at SBG other than Conor? I rate the game planning, training partners, and coaching at AKA muuuuuuuuch higher.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Anyone consider the men behind the fighter between Conor/Khabib as a big factor? Who the hell is successful at SBG other than Conor? I rate the game planning, training partners, and coaching at AKA muuuuuuuuch higher.

This helps Khabib. And the fact that Khabib will definitely be his best self, and who knows what Conor will show up the way he has been acting.

But Conor has proven himself to the point that you can’t question his coaching + training too much.