Favouring Evinger over Ladd - I think most of this has been covered anyway but just to reinforce the groupthink:
they are both red-haired fighters win their fights by taking opponents down, climbing on top, and GNPing prettier girls until they squeal, which they both seem to take some kind of unnatural pleasure in. I've not seen them win without doing that, and they both have just about always done that, over the last 5 years.
Ladd's best win is Eubanks who is a physically strong fighter and credentialed grappler, but has a BJJ base. Ladd was able to score points on the feet, and fight smart on the mat scoring TDs and getting enough control to rack up points, but disengaging/standing up before Eubanks could try any significant sub attempts or sweeps on the mat. The fight was at 135, Eubanks is fighting at 125 currently.
Ladd's other wins are not close to the calibre of Evinger.
Ladd's only loss as a pro or amateur is to Cynthia Calvillo, who is also a pressure grappler like Ladd or Evinger. Ladd was 19, but I think it's stylistically still relevant. Calvillo is now fighting at 115, and she has weak takedowns and striking.
Unlike any of Ladd's previous opponents (or Ladd herself), Evinger has a significant background in wrestling which is crucial since the fight will certainly (according to past form anyway) be decided by who gets TDs and climbs on top. Striking wise, Evinger may not be a striker but she is good at timing a looping right haymaker (mixed in with the TD threat) which has actually dropped better strikers more than once. Ladd could be surprised by that.
Evinger is not a flake (like, say, Randa Markos *ahem*) and will be nonstop in trying to press her gameplan (eg the Cyborg fight where she kept trying to score takedowns and never gave up against a bigger, stronger man despite the hopelessness of it).
Finally, Evinger obviously has a lot more MMA experience then Ladd or Ladd's past opponents.
Some reasons for doubting Evinger: mostly physical: i) she is old (37) (ii) she is coming off a major knee injury (torn ACL) (iii) while she has old lesbian truck driver strength, she is not exactly a physical specimen, combined with ageing; meanwhile Ladd is in the prime of youth and
looking pretty fooking buff lately.
A possibly bigger problem: iv) she likes to get subbed every now and then. After the Pennington sub she supposedly worked a lot on tightening up that area of her game, but she still got subbed by a random Russian fitness kickboxer who herself had just lost to an undersized regional can by armbar. Still, Evinger has been completely dominant in her grappling outside of that. We haven't seen Ladd on her back and I doubt she'll sub Evinger from there, but she might get a guillotine or something on the feet.
But, at now over 2.40 (!) Evinger must be good enough for at least 1-2u of anybody's money I'd say. If she wasn't old and unappealing and fighting a hyped undefeated young fighter she might be 1.60-1.75 range I guess, maybe even 1.50.
Some other Top Trivia about Tonya Evinger:
-
she beat up CagePotato's bus driver aunt in a drunken brawl
- her favorite pickup line (allegedly):
"I have a long middle finger and a knife. Its your choice which of them is going inside you tonight."
(Probably not recommended for guys in the #metoo era. Or any era where police exist)
Extra bonus trivia:
Aspen Ladd's mother is a big time MILF
