UFC 229: McGregor vs Khabib

[Dooze]

Think the only thing more unlikely than the fight going to decision is Conor subbing Khabib.

If I had to go for it odds wise:

30% Conor KO
25% Khabib KO
25% Khabib sub
15% Khabib Dec
4% Conor Dec
1% Conor sub

If Conor wins a decision, it'll be because he was able to stop Khabib taking him down and keep it on the feet, but if most of the fight takes place there I think he's more often than not going to stop Khabib.

Likewise, if Khabib wins a decision it's probably because he controlled where the fight took place, but unless Conor has developed enough TDD to instead lose rounds by having to defend takedowns against the cage for long periods of the fight, Khabib will instead likely be getting him down and advancing position often and that'll lead to a tires McGregor getting beaten up in a position he can't escape from and the ref jumping in to stop him eating GnP or him panicking on bottom, trying to escape and giving up an arm or his neck.

Both are capable of winning a decision, but I think they're strengths play into the others weaknesses well enough that for someone to win a decision (especially a clear one) they're probably going to have the other guy in a lot of trouble.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Anybody betting Tony vs Showtime? It's such an interesting fight, curious to hear what others around here think

 

[theTKDguy]

I have to apologize guys.

I thought Malley was going to fight Michel Quinones but this guy is Jose Alberto Quinonez HAAHHAHAH. This guy is legit lol. Great boxing and ground game. Could give some problems to overrated Malley for sure.

he isn't that good tbh, struggled with teruto quite a bit. i think omalley should take it

 

[theTKDguy]

How likely do you think it is for Conor vs Khabib to go to decision? Because that's the only outcome I can just hardly see honestly.

EDIT: a word

if it goes to a decision (i really doubt it), it'l be a khabib 50-44 or sth like that

Conor will give up sooner or later tho, so i doubt it. if it gets to a decision it'll be khabib who carried him. khabib via tko/sub inside the first 3 or conor via tko in the 1st are the most likely outcomes imo.

 

[theTKDguy]

Anybody betting Tony vs Showtime? It's such an interesting fight, curious to hear what others around here think

i'm liking showtime at those odds but i'm not confident tbh. i do think it goes to a decision, i don't see neither winning by tko. i could see a sub tho. pettis has great jits off his back but so does ferg, and he is definitely the stronger between the two. ferguson by decision i would say. having said that, ferguson is the best matchup (or least bad?) for pettis in the top 5.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Anybody betting Tony vs Showtime? It's such an interesting fight, curious to hear what others around here think

Pass for me. Tony coming back too soon after that devastating knee injury. Should be a mostly standup affair. I dont recall Tony chasing takedowns much and Pettis isnt a great wrestler himself plus Tony's anti wrestling is a big bag of tricks. Pettis' kicking game might be the x factor here especially if hes targeting that bad knee. Great fight though. Probably just one to watch. For me anyway. Big names in big fights doesn't necessarily mean you have to bet it ya.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Pass for me. Tony coming back too soon after that devastating knee injury. Should be a mostly standup affair. I dont recall Tony chasing takedowns much and Pettis isnt a great wrestler himself plus Tony's anti wrestling is a big bag of tricks. Pettis' kicking game might be the x factor here especially if hes targeting that bad knee. Great fight though. Probably just one to watch. For me anyway. Big names in big fights doesn't necessarily mean you have to bet it ya.

Exactly same thoughts, to much risk to bet Tony. Pettis can win this.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

And you @lifeisgood12345 ? Your thoughts on the matchup?

 

[lifeisgood12345]

And you @lifeisgood12345 ? Your thoughts on the matchup?

I like showtime. Tony is on a bit of a lucky streak.

He was nearly finished by Lando + Trujillo in round 1. RDA would have been a loss in a 3 round fight (albeit still much better than Showtime’s loss vs RDA). Lee may have beat him if he didn’t gas due to staph.


Tony is 34, coming off an injury, feels like his luck may be due to run out. But still don’t see it being easy for Showtime and Tony is such a unique fighter it’s hard to be confident. Would be more comfy at +3xx odds but not sure they will come. I’ll definitely have something on pettis, just not sure how much

 

[GrantSorenson]

I believe that people in this thread are greatly overestimating Khabib's finishing ability. He has trouble getting his opponents out of the fight. Conor has bad cardio but he definitely has heart and gameplan.

I like showtime. Tony is on a bit of a lucky streak.

He was nearly finished by Lando + Trujillo in round 1. RDA would have been a loss in a 3 round fight (albeit still much better than Showtime’s loss vs RDA). Lee may have beat him if he didn’t gas due to staph.


Tony is 34, coming off an injury, feels like his luck may be due to run out. But still don’t see it being easy for Showtime and Tony is such a unique fighter it’s hard to be confident. Would be more comfy at +3xx odds but not sure they will come. I’ll definitely have something on pettis, just not sure how much

I think Tony fights this the same way he fought Barbosa which is pressure pressure pressure. He's just flat out tougher than Pettis and has more heart.

 

[PuertoRican]

Name: Jalin Turner
Age: 23
Height: 6'3
Reach: 75.5" (192cm)
Weight Class: Lightweight (fight vs. Vicente Luque is at Welterweight)
Style: Striker with a purple belt in BJJ
Record: 7-3 (6 KO/TKO wins, 1 submission win; 2 losses by KO/TKO, 1 by decision)
Team: Carlson Gracie for BJJ, and floats around other camps in Southern California for MMA
Hometown: Inland Empire (Southern California)

Twitter: https://twitter.com/JalinTurner?lang=en
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetarantulamma/?hl=en
Sherdog profile: http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jalin-Turner-158269

Jalin Turner

• vs. Michael Velasquez (Muay Thai fight July 2014)
• vs. Emilas Jimenez (Amateur fight December 2014)
• vs. Raul Hernandez (Amateur fight June 2015)
• vs. Adrian Ajoleza (June 2016)
• vs. Andrew Lagdaan (September 2016)
• vs. Max Mustaki (July 2018)

 

[Danis_champ]

Anybody betting Tony vs Showtime? It's such an interesting fight, curious to hear what others around here think

Decision written all over it imo with Tony pushing forward and Pettis circling out. Pettis still has hell of a chin I think he survives this one

 

[Danis_champ]

I want your thoughts on Reyes.

He is 3-0 in the UFC. First two fights against very low level guys. His last win against Cannonier was impressive. Great boxing and good timing. Wiki says he has wrestling backround. No idea on what level? We haven't seen anybody force grappling on him right? OSP is so unreliable betting wise but he might have bigger chance here than people think. On the feet he is probably fucked but if he can get the TD anything can happen. I will watch more of Reyes tonight and see if I have to change my opinion.

 

[GrantSorenson]

Decision written all over it imo with Tony pushing forward and Pettis circling out. Pettis still has hell of a chin I think he survives this one

Agreed. 3 round fight. I wouldn't think Pettis would survive 5 rounds but 3 should be ok. Tony will be relentless and Pettis tapped pretty easy vs Dustin.

 

[GrantSorenson]

I want your thoughts on Reyes.

He is 3-0 in the UFC. First two fights against very low level guys. His last win against Cannonier was impressive. Great boxing and good timing. Wiki says he has wrestling backround. No idea on what level? We haven't seen anybody force grappling on him right? OSP is so unreliable betting wise but he might have bigger chance here than people think. On the feet he is probably fucked but if he can get the TD anything can happen. I will watch more of Reyes tonight and see if I have to change my opinion.

All I've seen from Reyes are his UFC blowouts. Before the Cannonier fight I'd take OSP here. OSP could sub him but the guy was hurt badly on the feet in his last two fights. That was a nice counter uppercut Reyes landed on Cannonier. Gotta think Reyes keeps him at bay and lands something that hurts him.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

 

[Wiktoruspro]

30$ to win 1480$

Daniel Magical at 2.95 odds is gold.
This is a freak event with polish youtubers.
Magical fights a guy named Rafonix
Magical weighs around 92 kg and Rafonix weighs 74 kg
Magical will smash this guy and odds are crazy.




And on my ,,lock parlay" 3 to go !

 

[Karmello]

30$ to win 1480$

Daniel Magical at 2.95 odds is gold.
This is a freak event with polish youtubers.
Magical fights a guy named Rafonix
Magical weighs around 92 kg and Rafonix weighs 74 kg
Magical will smash this guy and odds are crazy.


View attachment 441039

And on my ,,lock parlay" 3 to go !
View attachment 441041

Why don't you just put a bet on that Magical guy straight up at 2.95 odds? Now maybe you get those great odds, but one of the other legs in the parlay will fuck it up for you. Take advantage if you think those 2.95 odds are off and make some money of it. Although I don't know how trustworthy that Polish youtuber event is, maybe it's fixed or something and I have no idea who the fuck they are.

Do you only bet on parlays or do you place straight bets on dogs or really confident picks as well? Just curious

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Why don't you just put a bet on that Magical guy straight up at 2.95 odds? Now maybe you get those great odds, but one of the other legs in the parlay will fuck it up for you. Take advantage if you think those 2.95 odds are off and make some money of it. Although I don't know how trustworthy that Polish youtuber event is, maybe it's fixed or something and I have no idea who the fuck they are.

Do you only bet on parlays or do you place straight bets on dogs or really confident picks as well? Just curious

Only parlays but I will try beting props for ufc 229.
Yeah I will bet him also straight at this odds.
If its fixed than in favour for Magical, he is very popular by doing drunk streams in Poland.
Thats his mother below , biggest patology in our country.. it cant be worse but suprisingly they are making ALOT of money from donates.
In august this Magical earned in 2-3 weeks about 17000 $$$$

,,enjoy" lol

and.. back on topic <45>

 

[Danis_champ]

I struggle to see how Holtz can win this fight. Pillow fists and not great anywhere. Patrick is a step up in competition by large margin. finally he is fighting someone who belongs in the UFC. I'm thinking about ballsy move and parlaying all my bets with patrick. He is better everywhere and it's not even close