UFC 228 - Till V Woodley

[Dianabol]

I just think a Rivera win looks like a split decision on higher output, against Dodson probably winning a round off a knockdown and maaaaaybe having an argument for another one on having the harder strikes. Dodson's got the higher upside in this matchup, IMO, between KO-threat and Rivera's chin being not-great. If I had to bet I'd go Dodson at like +120, maybe a stab on the KO1 (He's got Woodley disease where most of his KOs just come from blitzing the other dude), but I don't think there's a huge value edge to found on either side at current price.

I think Rivera's the least durable non-Gamburyan BW that Dodson's fought in this current run. Rivera also rushing back IMO from getting sparked clean.

Yeah I'm just not worried about a Dodson KO, like I said there is really no evidence of him being a dangerous puncher at 135. If Dodson wins it will most likely be a split but Rivera is very hard to beat on the scorecards.

Sure Rivera is coming back pretty quick after the Marlon loss but it was a flash KO, he claims he didn't even sustain a concussion and I believe him.

Rivera should win with his higher output and I expect him to mix in some TD's. Dodson is 500 when it goes to the judges, Rivera is 15-1. Rivera will win. Dodson is on a decline

 

[Dianabol]

Woodley ain't wrestling. He hardly tries takedowns anyway and Till will be too big and hit too hard to keep up on the attempts.

Yep, Woodley might get a takedown or two depending on how long the fight goes but he's not going to pull of a wrestling based gameplan, he simply doesn't have the cardio to pull it off.

Woodley is so conservative with his energy, he'll have his back to the cage the whole fight and he'll be looking to counter punch. Till is going to pressure him and make him gas and probably finish him. Woodley is so overrated, I'd pick several Bellator fighters to beat him.

 

[Gugabe]

Yeah I'm just not worried about a Dodson KO, like I said there is really no evidence of him being a dangerous puncher at 135. If Dodson wins it will most likely be a split but Rivera is very hard to beat on the scorecards.

Sure Rivera is coming back pretty quick after the Marlon loss but it was a flash KO, he claims he didn't even sustain a concussion and I believe him.

Rivera should win with his higher output and I expect him to mix in some TD's. Dodson is 500 when it goes to the judges, Rivera is 15-1. Rivera will win. Dodson is on a decline

Using words like 'Will' makes me suspicious that you're an elaborate Wiktorus proxy. Also what happened to your twitter escapades? They were pretty entertaining. Rivera got flash-bopped by Moraes, but I'd be shocked if he literally didn't sustain a concussion. Maybe not an especially major one, but that's definitely a concussion.

I feel like this fight's definitely going to head to a split, which is a spot I'd prettymuch always want to have the +-odds fighter in. I'm also not particularly high on Rivera since I feel like he caught a lot of people on their downswings as he was ascending the ranks. I feel like this fight ultimately comes down to the vintage of Dodson that shows up. Either we get a gun-shy one who's never really in it, or a rare aggressive-Dodson appearance who wins it clean.

 

[Orion]

Anybody looking at betting on Aldana/Pudilova? I like Aldana a lot, I think she is a sleeper in this division

Aldana is a beast athlete but has a retarded fight IQ and so do her coaches. I don't think she will ever really reach her potential due to that collective intellectual cap on her game, but she's a good pick in fights where she is more athletic than her opponents and can out-brawl them

 

[Lightbringer]

I really think Diego is going to work Craig White with top position and cardio and probably finish White.

Craig White does not even strike well at distance which is where Diego is susceptible to being finished. Craig White prefers to clinch you up vs the cage where Diego might actually have an advantage. Craig White also has terrible TDD and randomly falls over and is willing to work his guard. He usually wins via subs off his back and he isn't subbing Diego. White also gasses super hard and I think Diego pours it on him inthe second and third and finishes him with ground and pound. Diego may not be very good but his cardio was still awesome vs Martin and his top control is more than enough to Keep White on his back.

Playing Diego at plus 200 vs a guy who has almost no skillset and gasses and relies off subbing amateurs off his back is a no brainer.

Al Iaquina and Matt Brown finishing Diego should not scare anyone. Those guys are at hilarious different heights than Craig White. Craig White is one of the worst fighters skillwise in the ufc. Give me Diego Sanchez in 2018.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Using words like 'Will' makes me suspicious that you're an elaborate Wiktorus proxy. Also what happened to your twitter escapades? They were pretty entertaining. Rivera got flash-bopped by Moraes, but I'd be shocked if he literally didn't sustain a concussion. Maybe not an especially major one, but that's definitely a concussion.

I feel like this fight's definitely going to head to a split, which is a spot I'd prettymuch always want to have the +-odds fighter in. I'm also not particularly high on Rivera since I feel like he caught a lot of people on their downswings as he was ascending the ranks. I feel like this fight ultimately comes down to the vintage of Dodson that shows up. Either we get a gun-shy one who's never really in it, or a rare aggressive-Dodson appearance who wins it clean.

Hey, I use most times the word ,,should".. when Im confident in a fighter I use the word ,,will". Happy that me and @Dianabol think the same.

 

[rev0lver]

I really think Diego is going to work Craig White with top position and cardio and probably finish White.

Craig White does not even strike well at distance which is where Diego is susceptible to being finished. Craig White prefers to clinch you up vs the cage where Diego might actually have an advantage. Craig White also has terrible TDD and randomly falls over and is willing to work his guard. He usually wins via subs off his back and he isn't subbing Diego. White also gasses super hard and I think Diego pours it on him inthe second and third and finishes him with ground and pound. Diego may not be very good but his cardio was still awesome vs Martin and his top control is more than enough to Keep White on his back.

Playing Diego at plus 200 vs a guy who has almost no skillset and gasses and relies off subbing amateurs off his back is a no brainer.

Al Iaquina and Matt Brown finishing Diego should not scare anyone. Those guys are at hilarious different heights than Craig White. Craig White is one of the worst fighters skillwise in the ufc. Give me Diego Sanchez in 2018.

I think we really need to look at this fight for what it is. It's basically Diego being cut by the UFC and being given an easy fight by a regional promotion. That's what this matchup looks like. Ignore how much of a joke current-era Diego is. He's being given a low tier opponent with poor striking who plays perfectly into his style. Probably would pass on the fight if he were favored, but it's an easy bet at these odds imo

 

[DarkneT]

Woodley ain't wrestling. He hardly tries takedowns anyway and Till will be too big and hit too hard to keep up on the attempts.

You really think Woodley ain't wrestling huh

 

[DarkneT]

Literally my fingers are hurting typing this

But it's about money and that's the only reason i am

Esparza looked improved..... last time out

Surely given that she is now getting a cupcake mentally (strict wrestler who won't hurt her with strikes)
(Carla is a clear headcase)
Maybe she comes into this one confident and game and wins a decision

She's a live dog for sure

 

[rev0lver]

Literally my fingers are hurting typing this

But it's about money and that's the only reason i am

Esparza looked improved..... last time out

Surely given that she is now getting a cupcake mentally (strict wrestler who won't hurt her with strikes)
(Carla is a clear headcase)
Maybe she comes into this one confident and game and wins a decision

She's a live dog for sure

Suarez is pretty much Carla on steroids (not trying to imply she's actually on steroids). She's by far the best wrestler in the division. She's also a bigger, longer fighter who keeps her distance well until she goes for the td. I can't see Carla winning a decision. Best case for her imo is catching a good guillotine on a shot or landing something big on the way in.

Can't blame someone for taking a dog in WMMA when they're both competent fighters, but I think the line is fair tbh

 

[Dianabol]

Using words like 'Will' makes me suspicious that you're an elaborate Wiktorus proxy. Also what happened to your twitter escapades? They were pretty entertaining. Rivera got flash-bopped by Moraes, but I'd be shocked if he literally didn't sustain a concussion. Maybe not an especially major one, but that's definitely a concussion.

I feel like this fight's definitely going to head to a split, which is a spot I'd prettymuch always want to have the +-odds fighter in. I'm also not particularly high on Rivera since I feel like he caught a lot of people on their downswings as he was ascending the ranks. I feel like this fight ultimately comes down to the vintage of Dodson that shows up. Either we get a gun-shy one who's never really in it, or a rare aggressive-Dodson appearance who wins it clean.

Yeah I understand why you think all that but Rivera is just the better fighter and the right side to be on, if he gotta win a split then he'll win a split

Only underdog worth playing is Niko Price.

 

[GrantSorenson]

Dodson beat Lineker easy and got robbed. He beat Moraes on one judges scorecard and I cant really argue even though I scored it 2-1 Moraes.

Both Moraes and Lineker would destroy Rivera. Moraes did, Lineker would.

Munhoz beat Rivera and got robbed in my opinion. He had Rivera rocked badly. Rivera has been rocked in quite a few fights.

I made good money taking Moraes to KO Rivera and I'll be putting bets on Dodson to win a decision and Dodson by KO. No way Rivera could ever go the distance and arguably beat Moraes and Lineker like Dodson did. This Rivera guy gets so overrated. Hes a limited chinny hooker.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I

Dodson beat Lineker easy and got robbed. He beat Moraes on one judges scorecard and I cant really argue even though I scored it 2-1 Moraes.

Both Moraes and Lineker would destroy Rivera. Moraes did, Lineker would.

Munhoz beat Rivera and got robbed in my opinion. He had Rivera rocked badly. Rivera has been rocked in quite a few fights.

I made good money taking Moraes to KO Rivera and I'll be putting bets on Dodson to win a decision and Dodson by KO. No way Rivera could ever go the distance and arguably beat Moraes and Lineker like Dodson did. This Rivera guy gets so overrated. Hes a limited chinny hooker.

Well he got ,,theoreticaly" finished by Moraes because he tapped after the bell.

 

[Endgamesbro]

I

Well he got ,,theoreticaly" finished by Moraes because he tapped after the bell.

Definitely not a tap - the bell had rung and dodson was indicating that. If you rewatch that fight it is clear he was never in any actual danger.

 

[ClipYourDirtyWings]

Literally my fingers are hurting typing this

But it's about money and that's the only reason i am

Esparza looked improved..... last time out

Surely given that she is now getting a cupcake mentally (strict wrestler who won't hurt her with strikes)
(Carla is a clear headcase)
Maybe she comes into this one confident and game and wins a decision

She's a live dog for sure

Carla is one of those fighters that no matter what she does I just flat out don’t respect or trust her. She looked...ok against Claudia but Claudia was on one leg which I think people forget or don’t know. That’s not to say I think the current line is accurate, it isn’t. I just think even taking a small stab at Carla is essentially flushing money down the toilet, like I don’t see value in it. I think Suarez -250, -300 would be bettable.

 

[Gugabe]

I think we really need to look at this fight for what it is. It's basically Diego being cut by the UFC and being given an easy fight by a regional promotion. That's what this matchup looks like. Ignore how much of a joke current-era Diego is. He's being given a low tier opponent with poor striking who plays perfectly into his style. Probably would pass on the fight if he were favored, but it's an easy bet at these odds imo

Yeah. Only concern I have is the size difference. Sanchez wouldn't exactly be a massive FW at this point, and White's not tiny for WW.

Yeah I understand why you think all that but Rivera is just the better fighter and the right side to be on, if he gotta win a split then he'll win a split

Only underdog worth playing is Niko Price.

Not getting on the Camacho or Stewart trains? Both fights should be about 55/45 in their favors, IMO.

 

[DevilsPt2]

Go to 3:00 and I'd like anyone to tell me how Neal doesnt get the KO in the same way.

You may think Camacho has another path to victory through his grappling but that will drain his cardio quickly, he prob wont even attempt takedowns after rd1. Neal is bigger, wont give up the takedown easy and he doesnt resign himself to bottom position.



This is the fight Neal got subbed in. Go to 40:45.

Yeah I understand why you think all that but Rivera is just the better fighter and the right side to be on, if he gotta win a split then he'll win a split

Only underdog worth playing is Niko Price.

I like half this post. Price is the only current dog worth playing would be more accurate but we still got Dodson at +125. I played Till, Dodson and Stamann as my +money team this card. I would rather not bet on the Diego Sanchez fight than bet Sanchez.

 

[Gugabe]

Go to 3:00 and I'd like anyone to tell me how Neal doesnt get the KO in the same way.

You may think Camacho has another path to victory through his grappling but that will drain his cardio quickly, he prob wont even attempt takedowns after rd1. Neal is bigger, wont give up the takedown easy and he doesnt resign himself to bottom position.



This is the fight Neal got subbed in. Go to 40:45.

Not saying that Neal can't win. I just think Camacho's the better rounded fighter, and TNC fighters have seemed to be consistently over-valued by the books since the show debut. Camacho should have the better grappling on paper, and we've seen him tested against another class of brawler than we've seen Neal tested by.

 

[Sadistics]

Not saying that Neal can't win. I just think Camacho's the better rounded fighter, and TNC fighters have seemed to be consistently over-valued by the books since the show debut. Camacho should have the better grappling on paper, and we've seen him tested against another class of brawler than we've seen Neal tested by.

Camacho only goes for trips from the clinch. Neal has a wrestling base and has been training with Razak who should have him prepared for Crank's judo

 

[Dianabol]

I like half this post. Price is the only current dog worth playing would be more accurate but we still got Dodson at +125. I played Till, Dodson and Stamann as my +money team this card. I would rather not bet on the Diego Sanchez fight than bet Sanchez.

Yeah I'm big on Till and I'm confident he wins

Also like Sterling, Rivera and Price

On the fence with Alex White and Aldana

Hoping for decent odds on Brooks' too

No interest in betting old shot fighters like Diego Sanchez, I can't trust them but IDK how anyone can trust Craig White at -250 either