UFC 227 Dillashaw vs Garbrandt II

Anyone think Moicano wins anything other than a decision? he has zero KO wins and all his sub wins are rear naked chokes. Cub has a lot of sub losses but they're mainly all guillotines or submissions where hes got sloppy and left his neck exposed rather than having his back taken. Only guy I can recall doing that at least relatively recently was Edgar and he just resorted to a last ditch neck crank cause he couldn't get the rear naked and even that took 5 rounds of aggressive ground and pound to soften him up. Throw in Cubs seemingly improved takedown defence and seems that there might be value on Moicanos decision line at -170 for anyone that thinks he's as good as the odds suggest with his at up to -400. Just an observation.
 
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Jordan3399 said:
Anyone think Moicano wins anything other than a decision? he has zero KO wins and all his sub wins are rear naked chokes. Cub has a lot of sub losses but they're mainly all guillotines or submissions where hes got sloppy and left his neck exposed rather than having his back taken. Only guy I can recall doing that at least relatively recently was Edgar and he just resorted to a last ditch neck crank cause he couldn't get the rear naked and even that took 5 rounds of aggressive ground and pound to soften him up. Throw in Cubs seemingly improved takedown defence and seems that there might be value on Moicanos decision line at -170 for anyone that thinks he's as good as the odds suggest with his at up to -400. Just an observation.
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Personally, I think Moicano might get his first TKO victory here. Cub is a worn out old vet of the sport whose become increasingly hittable in recent years.

Moicano will put a lot of volume on him and I think he will hurt him with something.

Cub is tough, but every dog has his day.
Few thought Stephens would get stopped by Aldo last weekend.
 
From a value standpoint, I think Moicano dec at -170 is way better than his ML at -370. Cub is gonna hit the wall at some point and his chin won't hold up, but just banking on it being in this fight seems foolish when it's THAT much more juice.

I'm just taking a tiny stab on Cub +4xx but if I was gonna bet Moicano I'd bet his dec prop.
 
edole said:
Personally, I think Moicano might get his first TKO victory here. Cub is a worn out old vet of the sport whose become increasingly hittable in recent years.

Moicano will put a lot of volume on him and I think he will hurt him with something.

Cub is tough, but every dog has his day.
Few thought Stephens would get stopped by Aldo last weekend.
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I just don't buy into the idea Cub is as worn out as that but I what you're saying Cub has taken a lot of damage I just don't think we've seen enough evidence of it yet as he still marched down Choi easily enough. I did have money on Aldo's ITD line buts thats cause Aldo is a proven hard hitter and in the Holloway fights was throwing looking to do serious damage that could hurt anyone. On the contrary Moicano is always point fighting, and while he seemed to be trying to hit hard vs Ortega but even then it didn't do much despite the volume. I mean +1300 ain't a bad bet if you're right though.
 
Wish we could do a poll thingamajigger in here..but seems like circle jerks on JJ, Vera, Ramos, Jackson and Moraes
 
matthew55 said:
Wish we could do a poll thingamajigger in here..but seems like circle jerks on JJ, Vera, Ramos, Jackson and Moraes
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Just look at the bets people have posted, should give a good indication.
 
Jordan3399 said:
Anyone think Moicano wins anything other than a decision? he has zero KO wins and all his sub wins are rear naked chokes. Cub has a lot of sub losses but they're mainly all guillotines or submissions where hes got sloppy and left his neck exposed rather than having his back taken. Only guy I can recall doing that at least relatively recently was Edgar and he just resorted to a last ditch neck crank cause he couldn't get the rear naked and even that took 5 rounds of aggressive ground and pound to soften him up. Throw in Cubs seemingly improved takedown defence and seems that there might be value on Moicanos decision line at -170 for anyone that thinks he's as good as the odds suggest with his at up to -400. Just an observation.
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It's gonna be a crappy coinflip split and there's a 50% chance Swanson pulls it out despite MMAdecisions being unanimous for Moicano.
 
I think Mighty Mouse wins inside distance but I do like that unanimous decision at +210
 
Gugabe said:
It's gonna be a crappy coinflip split and there's a 50% chance Swanson pulls it out despite MMAdecisions being unanimous for Moicano.
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Not if Moicano sticks to a leg kicking game and takes him down in every round. He's good at timing takedowns. We've seen Moicano fight this fight a few times.
 
GrantSorenson said:
Not if Moicano sticks to a leg kicking game and takes him down in every round. He's good at timing takedowns. We've seen Moicano fight this fight a few times.
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Moicano's a fairly slow starter, and his legkicking has only really dominated one fight against Kattar, who has essentially never successfully dealt with one in his UFC run. Kattar's only strategy for defeating legkicks was to punch over them, whilst Swanson can actually check. I believe Swanson'll win the first, Moic runs away with the third, and the second's pretty contentious.
 
Gugabe said:
Moicano's a fairly slow starter, and his legkicking has only really dominated one fight against Kattar, who has essentially never successfully dealt with one in his UFC run. Kattar's only strategy for defeating legkicks was to punch over them, whilst Swanson can actually check. I believe Swanson'll win the first, Moic runs away with the third, and the second's pretty contentious.
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Cub is a much slower starter than Moicano. If you give round 1 to Ortega for that submission attempt, Cub hasn't won round 1 since he fought Jeremy Stephens.
 
My #'s have Weili Zhang as the best finishing 115 in the world. The only active women in any weight class above her are Nunes and Cyborg.

Can't fully trust low level WMMA dominance, but she has been very consistent and isn't fighting all cans. Has beat Brazilian women who are 8-2, 7-1, 6-2 and is the only person to stop 22-10 Emi Fujino. Only girl she couldn't finish since her debut was pushing her against the cage all fight. That same girl is also responsible for Viana's only non-finish and loss (via wrestlefuck decision).

She is so versatile with so many ways to finish. Has a highlight headkick KO. Good at closing the range and landing vicious knees and elbows. And she has the most savage ground and pound I have seen from a woman, with nice submission game to boot. And she is very aggressive and pushes the pace.

Danielle Taylor does NOT have a good chin (got KO'd cold by one Jamie Colleen punch) is NOT tough (retired after getting tagged a few times as amateur) and is completely lost on the ground.

The only way I see Taylor surviving is by successfully running away all fight. But when she starts eating some of Zhang's elbows she is going to want out. I have never been this confident in a 115 girl finishing as I am Zhang this fight. Zhang ML and under are my top 2 bets this weekend.
 
I wasn't aware of that Cejudo is actually older than DJ...
 
montel jackson

-says despite the win and ko in r3 of junes contender series fight it wasnt his night to get contract
other contenders got quicker knock out wins so it looked better
-not worried about short notice has to take the chances to fight and be prepared
-I will find out when the bell rings if I am ready for 3 rounds
-not really checked fully into simon due to time, but its a fight I will make the adjustments in there
-not worried about his opponents more experience factor
-whenever and where ever will still be victorious
-no injuries am healthy
-wants to be on miwaki card since its close to home in few months time
-will see what happens in his fight, whatever happens it happens
-short notice wont effect my weight cut am not that big
-knew about his condition and weight before the fight and was happy to accept it
-flies out monday/tuesday (this week)
-doesn't care where he is situated on the card even just thankful to get into ufc
-says fighters should not back out when opponents change since this is their career and livelyhood
-
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
My #'s have Weili Zhang as the best finishing 115 in the world. The only active women in any weight class above her are Nunes and Cyborg.

Can't fully trust low level WMMA dominance, but she has been very consistent and isn't fighting all cans. Has beat Brazilian women who are 8-2, 7-1, 6-2 and is the only person to stop 22-10 Emi Fujino. Only girl she couldn't finish since her debut was pushing her against the cage all fight. That same girl is also responsible for Viana's only non-finish and loss (via wrestlefuck decision).

She is so versatile with so many ways to finish. Has a highlight headkick KO. Good at closing the range and landing vicious knees and elbows. And she has the most savage ground and pound I have seen from a woman, with nice submission game to boot. And she is very aggressive and pushes the pace.

Danielle Taylor does NOT have a good chin (got KO'd cold by one Jamie Colleen punch) is NOT tough (retired after getting tagged a few times as amateur) and is completely lost on the ground.

The only way I see Taylor surviving is by successfully running away all fight. But when she starts eating some of Zhang's elbows she is going to want out. I have never been this confident in a 115 girl finishing as I am Zhang this fight. Zhang ML and under are my top 2 bets this weekend.
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I think bettors feel the same way but instead of hitting Zhang's juiced ML they are playing Zhang ITD and the under at 2.5 rounds to cover Taylor's fluke counter knockout possibility. The under 2.5 opened at +260 and is all the way down to +155 which is a big swing considering it's women's mma, usually the line move a lot towards the overs for women's mma and not the unders. I don't think it was one person dropping a bomb unless it was over gradual days.
 
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In my opinion, Cub Swanson's last good win was against Jeremy Stephens in 2014.

He is going to get finished tomorrow.
 
I took @zeckdo up on his offer to come onto his podcast this week. Have a listen if you want my take on some of the fights for Saturday.

Podcast Episode 28 of Martian MMA with @zeckdo & myself

Soundcloud link:
iTunes link: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/martian-mma/id1320653837?mt=2

UFC Calgary Recap ti: 48:50
UFC 227 Preview with Betting analysis til: 1:59:10
Colby Covington's White House visit til finish
 
edole said:
In my opinion, Cub Swanson's last good win was against Jeremy Stephens in 2014.

He is going to get finished tomorrow.
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doubt it.. can only see a small chance for a sub but dont think he can cub down his tdd was amazing vs frankie
 
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