UFC 227 Dillashaw vs Garbrandt II

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[lefontes]

Dillashaw is going to kill this guy. Again!

Im 2u on TJ

 

[wack3d]

i loved TJ last time at +150 +170 but not sure i want to bet him as a favorite.. i feel like the odds is kinda spot on this time

 

[Monster Meat]

Have the goat Mighty Mouse to close out a few parlays. Domination as usual.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Have the goat Mighty Mouse to close out a few parlays. Domination as usual.

At this odds I woudlnt put him in every parlay, there is a risk that Cejudo gets the job done.
He improved since their first fight.

 

[BatBoyJG]

I also went pretty big on Dillashaw last time at +180 (and added to him right before the fight when it ballooned to +195) but man I just kinda feel he was fortunate in winning that first fight.

I favor Cody slightly but rather just pass on the fight given that he is at even odds now. Not good enough for me and too much variance imo between these two guys. I think Cody gets it done this time though. Maybe his ko prop will be okay to play.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

At this odds I woudlnt put him in every parlay, there is a risk that Cejudo gets the job done.
He improved since their first fight.

Sure he did but not by THAT much. His karate shit barely worked against baby pettis and when he couldn't get around pettis' footwork he immediately bailed and did the good ol' LnP.

What's his path to victory? Lay on mighty mouse for 25 minutes? A ko? I don't see how MM doesn't have every advantage in spades over cejudo. I don't think MM is a better wrestler per se but hes more than good enough at creating and capitalizing on scrambles and sprawling to keep it standing.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Sure he did but not by THAT much. His karate shit barely worked against baby pettis and when he couldn't get around pettis' footwork he immediately bailed and did the good ol' LnP.

What's his path to victory? Lay on mighty mouse for 25 minutes? A ko? I don't see how MM doesn't have every advantage in spades over cejudo. I don't think MM is a better wrestler per se but hes more than good enough at creating and capitalizing on scrambles and sprawling to keep it standing.

Sure, you are right but if he was at least 1.30 and not 1.15...

 

[Gugabe]

Swanson +350's a bit nuts, IMO. I'll be surprised if that doesn't close around +200 once the last 24 hours worth of push comes in.

 

[LLD2008]

Dillashaw has the mental edge another ko this time

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Swanson +350's a bit nuts, IMO. I'll be surprised if that doesn't close around +200 once the last 24 hours worth of push comes in.

Odds are accurate, Swanson will lose.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

The pikey gonna wrestle fuck his way to a decision or is Pedro gonna snatch that Welsh neck? Cant believe I missed -155 for Pedro.

 

[Monster Meat]

At this odds I woudlnt put him in every parlay, there is a risk that Cejudo gets the job done.
He improved since their first fight.

I have him as the last leg in a few 4 team parlays and one 7 teamer. Cejudo has def improved but nobody is beating Mighty Mouse he’s too damn good. He has so many ways to win and Barring a fluky knockout just don’t see how Cejudo Can win this fight.

 

[Gugabe]

Odds are accurate, Swanson will lose.

He probably will, but I don't think he should be sitting at -450. I'm not saying he's deserving the favorite slot, but Moicano isn't a lock in this spot. He's going to give Cub the sort of range-striking battle that he wants, and he hasn't got Edgar's Takedown game in order to force that conservative look out of Swanson.

I think Moicano's good, I had a 3u play on him against Kattar (Legkick >>>> Jab, same story as Ledet V Rakic), but he's way-content to kickbox and the only kickboxer at FW who deserves a -450 over Swanson is Holloway. Swanson's range-kickboxing tools are better than Stephens', and I'm happily putting on Swanson for a partial arb.

The pikey gonna wrestle fuck his way to a decision or is Pedro gonna snatch that Welsh neck? Cant believe I missed -155 for Pedro.

I faded Johns incredibly hard against Sterling, but I think the line's a bit of a no-play as-is. I'm even tempted to go with a small play on Johns Dec if I can get +550 or so. Munhoz isn't the best guy at actually forcing takedowns, and Johns winning a volume/cardio-based boxing dec wouldn't shock me.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

He probably will, but I don't think he should be sitting at -450. I'm not saying he's deserving the favorite slot, but Moicano isn't a lock in this spot. He's going to give Cub the sort of range-striking battle that he wants, and he hasn't got Edgar's Takedown game in order to force that conservative look out of Swanson.

I think Moicano's good, I had a 3u play on him against Kattar (Legkick >>>> Jab, same story as Ledet V Rakic), but he's way-content to kickbox and the only kickboxer at FW who deserves a -450 over Swanson is Holloway. Swanson's range-kickboxing tools are better than Stephens', and I'm happily putting on Swanson for a partial arb.

Yeah, but not better to invest this DOG money into a dog with real chance to win like Cody ?

 

[BatBoyJG]

Yeah, but not better to invest this DOG money into a dog with real chance to win like Cody ?

I don’t understand your betting strategy

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I don’t understand your betting strategy

For example last event, I bet Fabinski at +odds but I was confident he will win.
I wasnt betting him because he has a +number but because I knew his style is kryptonite for Meek so in my eyes he had a REAL chance to win.

 

[Gugabe]

For example last event, I bet Fabinski at +odds but I was confident he will win.
I wasnt betting him because he has a +number but because I knew his style is kryptonite for Meek so in my eyes he had a REAL chance to win.

So you're saying that you only play dogs if you think they've got a 50%+ chance to win? Regardless of line?

 

[Wiktoruspro]

So you're saying that you only play dogs if you think they've got a 50%+ chance to win? Regardless of line?

Yep, I know that this sport is pretty unpredictable with upsets and so on but imo better focus on a dog with real chance than a dog with no advantage but a +number.

 

[Gugabe]

Yep, I know that this sport is pretty unpredictable with upsets and so on but imo better focus on a dog with real chance than a dog with no advantage but a +number.

You keep saying this 'No Chance' thing like Moicano should be -10000000. There's a clear path to victory for Swanson in a point-kickboxing match, since he's more proven in the field and Moicano doesn't seem to go for a lot of shots. Now I'm actually thinking about it in detail, that line's stupid.