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UFC 224 - First time betting - advice/opinions?

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by MMA fan93, May 9, 2018.

  1. MMA fan93 Blue Belt

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    Hello fellow sherbros,

    have decided to bet for the first time, with about 50 bucks (I know its not a lot, but whatever), and I tried to cover my bases the best possible way by trying to hedge them as well.. the total bets I made are below:

    UFC224 picks.JPG

    Thinking behind the picks was as follows:

    I see Kelvin finishing Jacare, so its a simple one.
    I feel Machida wins, but he is tentative enough that he wont get the finish, so Machida by decision. Also, just to hedge the bet, bet on Vitor by finish in 2 or 3, since the way he fought against Nate, I feel he'll be tentative the first round, and really don't see him winning by decision.
    Bet on Cooper by decision - owing to the rarity of KOs in WMMA, and obviously she is not submitting Dern. Dern looked nothing special in her debut, and I feel Cooper by decision is a strong bet. I was debating whether I should hedge it by placing a small bet on Dern by finish? Suggestions welcome.
    Kelleher decision is just an underdog bet - don't think he finishes the chin of stone. Also, hedged it by betting Lineker finish in round 2 or 3 - don't think it'll happen in 1 as Kelleher is tough. Lineker by decision is the most likely option, but bet small on this fight so I'm okay with losing too.
    Two different bets on Pennington by finish/decision game me better average odds than Pennington win (lol) so bet separately. To hedge, bet on Nunes finish in either 2,3, or 4. Feel Raquel is tough enough to ride out the first, and Nunes will be out of gas by the fifth to finish it then.

    And a hailmary parlay on the underdogs ofcourse.

    How can I improve it Sherbros? Any suggestions are welcome. I'm getting a feeling ill be torn apart on my picks lol, but its my first time betting so I'm still learning.
     
  2. Rapidryan88 Green Belt

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    If anyone’s mean just ignore them bud, find what works for you. I wouldn’t personally make all my bets prop bets because there’s a lower chance they come in, mix up some straight picks at nice prices also.
    Never chase and just keep track, do good research also :)
     
  3. michi972 Purple Belt

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    Emeev as dog for God's sake!
     
  4. raketmannen Brown Belt

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    You get a much better return from just betting Pennington moneyline instead of both the finish and decision props
     
  5. piglord Black Belt

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    hey dude welcome aboard.

    make sure to look for value on all the prices you hit. this is something you develop an intuition for over time. make sure you watch a lot of tape on all the fights you bet and don't be afraid to lose money when you're betting small - you're investing in a skill that will serve you well in the long run.
     
  6. trident Water Belt

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    Parlay props for big $$$$!!!!!
     
  7. lilbloaty Banned Banned

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    Hedging is dumb, drop that
     
  8. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    hedging with shit odds on multiple bets is dumb, hedging at good odds can be very smart
     

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