UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

[lilbloaty]

I'm on Rose ITD and I haven't really heard anything from JJ backers that makes me less confident in my bet. It's more just conjecture of "JJ is a superior striker and Rose won on a fluke". Yeah... it could very well be true, but nothing from their first fight screamed fluke/luck to me

Rose got lucky bro. JJ's kidneys from the weight cut made her miss 37/42 strikes. With a better weight cut she wouldn't have hit air, bit on feints and get schooled.

 

[pytycrys]

I also call bullshit on the "bad weight-cut" thing.
Before the fight, judging by how she looked at the weigh-ins, I thought it was one of her best weight cuts for the last years.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

I think she is mentally strong now but the first time Rose lands a good strike or if Rose gets a TD, will JJ wilt and break? I think she will.

She has been badly rocked before in previous matches and she was repeatedly and pretty easily taken down by Claudia in the early rounds, she still ended up winning all of those fights. I'm not sure I quite agree with the general narrative of Joanna suddenly being a quitter. It is her first mma loss though, and it was a big one, so who knows where her head's currently at.

 

[turbozed]

If you take away the last fight, which was only a few minutes of action, Joanna is a champ that defended her belt 5 times against tough competition. Unless you're Mighty Mouse or Prime Anderson Silva, fighting #1 contenders means you're going to get hit a few times. Despite this, Joanna has been finished once in her career.

Is she 'chinny'? Maybe, who knows. Rewatching the punch from KK it looks a lot less dangerous than it did on first watch. Even if we take as fact that she's more chinny now, we're still talking about the 115 lbs women's division here. Not a weightclass where betting on chins seems like a tried and true strategy.

The real issue is whether or not Rose has the formula for beating Joanna in the striking department or whether that first fight was an outlier in some way. Maybe the first is true to an extent but I think if you watch all the exchanges carefully there are signs that Joanna wasn't looking like herself at all.. Joanna's footwork was off, her exits out of combos were non existent (she'd throw a one-two and would just freeze and get hit), her reactions were just way off. Like the left hook that put her down. Joanna just stood there, flinched, but didn't move her feet or head to dodge at all. It was weird. If Joanna fought as poorly as that against Andrade, she'd probably have been mauled too.

I'll be on Joanna bc I suspect that performance was an anomaly and the relatively short odds on a consistent performer. Even if Rose does best Joanna at range-striking like some are expecting, Joanna still has other ways to win this fight. Rose's biggest problem is that she's not very strong and this leads to her getting tossed around and dominated in the clinch like against KK. Joanna is even stronger and can just bully Rose around against the cage. Joanna was able to defend takedowns from even Andrade against the cage, and Andrade is an order of magnitude stronger and more physical. That's probably not going to be her plan A but it's definitely a viable plan B.

 

[iGnP]

If you take away the last fight, which was only a few minutes of action, Joanna is a champ that defended her belt 5 times against tough competition. Unless you're Mighty Mouse or Prime Anderson Silva, fighting #1 contenders means you're going to get hit a few times. Despite this, Joanna has been finished once in her career.

Is she 'chinny'? Maybe, who knows. Rewatching the punch from KK it looks a lot less dangerous than it did on first watch. Even if we take as fact that she's more chinny now, we're still talking about the 115 lbs women's division here. Not a weightclass where betting on chins seems like a tried and true strategy.

The real issue is whether or not Rose has the formula for beating Joanna in the striking department or whether that first fight was an outlier in some way. Maybe the first is true to an extent but I think if you watch all the exchanges carefully there are signs that Joanna wasn't looking like herself at all.. Joanna's footwork was off, her exits out of combos were non existent (she'd throw a one-two and would just freeze and get hit), her reactions were just way off. Like the left hook that put her down. Joanna just stood there, flinched, but didn't move her feet or head to dodge at all. It was weird. If Joanna fought as poorly as that against Andrade, she'd probably have been mauled too.

I'll be on Joanna bc I suspect that performance was an anomaly and the relatively short odds on a consistent performer. Even if Rose does best Joanna at range-striking like some are expecting, Joanna still has other ways to win this fight. Rose's biggest problem is that she's not very strong and this leads to her getting tossed around and dominated in the clinch like against KK. Joanna is even stronger and can just bully Rose around against the cage. Joanna was able to defend takedowns from even Andrade against the cage, and Andrade is an order of magnitude stronger and more physical. That's probably not going to be her plan A but it's definitely a viable plan B.

It really sounds like you made up your mind about betting on JJ prior to watching tape. I don't think your analysis is very objective

 

[quincy k]

Just like the first fight right?

just like lennox, the superior boxer, was kod against rahman and came back to ktfo hassim in the rematch

thats what i think is going to happen here, just my opinion, i really dont want to argue about it

 

[piglord]

just like lennox, the superior boxer, was kod against rahman and came back to ktfo hassim in the rematch

thats what i think is going to happen here, just my opinion, i really dont want to argue about it

think joanna gets a finish or it goes to decision?

 

[t6p]

If you take away the last fight, which was only a few minutes of action, Joanna is a champ that defended her belt 5 times against tough competition. Unless you're Mighty Mouse or Prime Anderson Silva, fighting #1 contenders means you're going to get hit a few times. Despite this, Joanna has been finished once in her career.

Is she 'chinny'? Maybe, who knows. Rewatching the punch from KK it looks a lot less dangerous than it did on first watch. Even if we take as fact that she's more chinny now, we're still talking about the 115 lbs women's division here. Not a weightclass where betting on chins seems like a tried and true strategy.

The real issue is whether or not Rose has the formula for beating Joanna in the striking department or whether that first fight was an outlier in some way. Maybe the first is true to an extent but I think if you watch all the exchanges carefully there are signs that Joanna wasn't looking like herself at all.. Joanna's footwork was off, her exits out of combos were non existent (she'd throw a one-two and would just freeze and get hit), her reactions were just way off. Like the left hook that put her down. Joanna just stood there, flinched, but didn't move her feet or head to dodge at all. It was weird. If Joanna fought as poorly as that against Andrade, she'd probably have been mauled too.

I'll be on Joanna bc I suspect that performance was an anomaly and the relatively short odds on a consistent performer. Even if Rose does best Joanna at range-striking like some are expecting, Joanna still has other ways to win this fight. Rose's biggest problem is that she's not very strong and this leads to her getting tossed around and dominated in the clinch like against KK. Joanna is even stronger and can just bully Rose around against the cage. Joanna was able to defend takedowns from even Andrade against the cage, and Andrade is an order of magnitude stronger and more physical. That's probably not going to be her plan A but it's definitely a viable plan B.

I think Joanna can and will make some adjustments here. IMO one of the biggest keys to the first fight was Rose neutralizing Joanna's jab by staying far out of range and closing the distance with those leaping left hooks. Joanna backing up in straight lines also made it easier for Rose to time her attacks. I think Joanna can adjust by coming forward/not allowing Rose to dictate distance and utilizing more lateral movement in her retreats. It seems to me like Rose came into the first fight with a great gameplan and executed it perfectly. But if JJ can take away what worked so well for Rose in that fight, I have to wonder if Rose can get the better of her on the feet.

I also had similar thoughts re: JJ's advantage in the clinch. The work that KK was able to do there absolutely won the fight for her against Rose. All those knees to the body really took their toll. I don't see why JJ can't have similar, if not more success in the clinch and I definitely think it's a viable option for her here.

Before the first fight, very few were giving Rose a chance. I think it's important to consider what happened in that fight when capping this one, but I'm not willing to throw out everything that we believed beforehand based on 3 minutes of fighting. I do agree with the concerns that others have brought up about Joanna's chin though. She doesn't seem to be able to take a shot very well and Rose is an excellent finisher once she has you hurt. Because of that I'm waiting to hopefully get JJ at evens or better and I'll probably keep it to 1-2u.

 

[quincy k]

think joanna gets a finish or it goes to decision?

im hoping for +500 itd

imo, even if jj is cleary winning the fight she will go for the ko unitl the very last second. just my opinon she has a mean streak in her, very proud and wants to redeem her loss with a stoppage. jj asked for the immediate rematch like how lennox lewis sued hassim rahman after getting kod to get his immediate rematch

pretty funny if youve never seen this. lewis ktfo and letting rahman hes going to ktfo hassim or get ktfo in the rematch

 

[NorthernLights]

When is the last time you guys watched Khabib/Barboza?

I just did, and holy shit did I remember it wrong. If you haven't seen it lately, I recommend watching it again.

I had it in my mind that Khabib really beat Edson down for 15 minutes, but that's just not how it went. He beat him down the second half of round 1 but in terms of actual real damage that was when the majority of it happened. First half of round 1 was standing, second half was a beatdown. Round 2 Khabib took awhile to get the TD, then held Edson down and landed some gnp, but nothing hugely significant.

Round 3 is what I really, REALLY remembered wrong. About a minute of striking, nothing significant. Then Khabib pushes a broken and exhausted Edson against the cage (aided by Edson kind of just backing up into it). Khabib then holds him there, and twice tries to level change for TD's. Somehow even the corpse that was Edson at that point stuffs both attempts and spins off the cage (that whole sequence taking maybe 90 seconds). More striking with Edson throwing desperation spinning kicks and stuff. Khabib again pushes him against the cage with about 2 minutes left. This time does get the TD. Edson squirms and Khabib tries to hold him down and does for awhile, but lands nothing. With about 30 seconds left Edson is able to finall wriggle free and get back to his feet, where the last 20-30 seconds tick away with a bit more striking. I really thought Khabib put it on Edson in round 3 (even if Khabib did slow a little). But man, even though Khabib clearly won the round, it is an eye opener that he didn't have enough to get a broken version of Edson down the first 2 times he tried, and wasn't able to hold him down and do anything offensively when he finally did get the TD.

If Tony survives rounds 1 and 2 and is relatively fresh and we see the version of Khabib I just watched in round 3 of that fight, I think Khabib is in serious trouble. Tony will pour it on him and it will turn into a beatdown.

Maybe we see Khabib with more to offer, or somehow he manages to make Tony look as broken as Edson looked. But if not, I honestly don't see how Khabib even survives to see the final bell.

I agree with most of what you're saying and Khabib was absolutely slowing down in the third, but I have to say you lost me there. He threw about twenty or so strikes to the head of Barboza after that last TD, saying that he landed nothing is just incorrect.

 

[mkess101]

I agree with most of what you're saying and Khabib was absolutely slowing down in the third, but I have to say you lost me there. He threw about twenty or so strikes to the head of Barboza after that last TD, saying that he landed nothing is just incorrect.

That was hyperbole. They were pitter patter strikes that really meant little to nothing in terms of damage. In round 1 he was posturing up and landing BOMBS on Barboza. I mean freaking thudding shots that end a lot of fights. Round 3 they were barely registering with Barboza, the steam was gone.

But yes, saying he landed "nothing" was incorrect. He did throw and land some punches.

 

[Sham5916910]

just like lennox, the superior boxer, was kod against rahman and came back to ktfo hassim in the rematch

thats what i think is going to happen here, just my opinion, i really dont want to argue about it

Or a far more relevant context than a hw boxing match id compare it more to tj barao

 

[quincy k]

Or a far more relevant context than a hw boxing match id compare it more to tj barao

are you insinuating that rose has the handspeed and footwork of tj dillishaw and jj is a slow plodder like barao?

oh my

thats bizarre

and renan has never had the output of jj

i dont understand how you came up with that comparison

 

[Sham5916910]

are you insinuating that rose has the handspeed and footwork of tj dillishaw and jj is a slow plodder like barao?

oh my

thats bizarre

and renan has never had the output of jj

i dont understand how you came up with that comparison

Dude you are comparing two hw boxers 150lbs larger than jj and rose to jj and rose rematch. Not even mentioning its two different sports and you are harping back 25 years.

Are you insinuating rose is anything like rahman?! Similar styles i guess on the feet!!!

 

[quincy k]

Dude you are comparing two hw boxers 150lbs larger than jj and rose to jj and rose rematch. Not even mentioning its two different sports and you are harping back 25 years.

Are you insinuating rose is anything like rahman?! Similar styles i guess on the feet!!!

what does 25 years have to do with anything? and what relevancy does weight classes have to do with it other than if anything lewis was at a disadvantage because punch resistance and power is more revelant at the higher weights as opposed to womens mma

and boxing, if it stays standing, is very similar to mma, sans the kicks where jj has the edge.

if the fight stays standing(rose credited with two total tds over five rounds) i like jj to win this fight, okay? maybe im wrong in that jj is mentally shot from the 1rst round ko and is kod again. i dont think so becasue she wanted the immediate rematch, just like lennox

in a kickboxing match with 10 ounce gloves and headgear do you have rose beating joanna in five rounds over 25 minutes?

 

[NorthernLights]

That was hyperbole. They were pitter patter strikes that really meant little to nothing in terms of damage. In round 1 he was posturing up and landing BOMBS on Barboza. I mean freaking thudding shots that end a lot of fights. Round 3 they were barely registering with Barboza, the steam was gone.

But yes, saying he landed "nothing" was incorrect. He did throw and land some punches.

Ok, fair enough. I just wanted to point out that I thought that you might be pushing your narrative a little too hard while not being completely objective...But like I said, I still agree with most of what you're saying.

 

[quincy k]

Are you insinuating that Joanna has the knockout power of Lennox Lewis?

Oh my

Thats bizarre

And retarded

And you're the worst poster on this forum

attacking me twice on the same thread?

let me guess...ez banned your other joseph budden alias and you dug this one up out of the grave?

you shouldve never got banned to begin with and then you wouldnt have to do all this shit

 

[lilbloaty]

attacking me twice on the same thread?

let me guess...ez banned your other joseph budden alias and you dug this one up out of the grave?

you shouldve never got banned to begin with and then you wouldnt have to do all this shit

Yeah Budden was an amazing poster. He wouldn't have to make alts if mods just did their jobs correctly

 

[quincy k]

Yeah Budden was an amazing poster. He wouldn't have to make alts if mods just did their jobs correctly

okay, budden. for the record, i dont think i got you banned, it was just a coincedence that we had a beef about the time that ez kicked you out.

the fact that you argued with everyone here...i was just one of many

 

[iGnP]

uh, guys...



multiple people saying its not a joke, either. i dont believe it but...