We have Romero +800 R1 at Ladbrokes...
I still like it, even though he missed weight...He's an animal.
You pretty much HAVE to bet that line. Even if you are REALLY confident Luke wins, that line is just way, WAY off. Luke's boxing just isn't very good. At kicking range he's a solid striker, but when he's crowded he freezes up and is WAY too hittable. Like
@iGnP said, Yoel isn't necessarily the guy that rushes in for the immediate kill, but with his power there's a very real chance he catches Luke with something early, even if he's not blitzing him looking for the quick finish.
Maybe it was ring rust vs Branch. Maybe. But for those who are just SOOOOO confident in Luke, how the hell does the early part of that fight not give you pause? Branch is a solid fighter, and Luke survived and came back for a nice win. But if that's someone who hits like Yoel tagging him, Luke no way survives that. Bisping isn't a big puncher and Luke couldn't handle getting hit clean by him either.
This is a fight where there are VERY clear paths to victory for both guys AND where both guys have glaring weaknesses. Yoel is easily the more explosive, powerful guy who can finish fights quickly either standing or with gnp. His wrestling speaks for itself, although in MMA he's been less inclined to try to take guys down than would be expected. In this fight, it's his TDD that might be key. But he (depending on the pace of the fight) has 10-15 minutes worth of cardio, tops. Luke has great kicks, and is a beast top control grappler who is impossible to deal with if he gets guys on their backs. But his boxing is bad (at least if he's forced to fight in close quarters). He doesn't seem to react the best to getting hit (at least recently). Essentially, he doesn't do well with being pressured.
So, my view is that in a fight that really could go either way, bet the dog. If I was going to be home to watch this, I'd be of course looking to live bet Luke after rd 2 depending on what the fight looked like and how much energy Yoel was forced to expend early. But in this spot, making a big bet and paying juice on Luke? Man, I don't get it. Because I can't watch this card live and have no chance to live bet, I am keeping all my action pretty small outside a decent sized bet on Li.