UFC 216 - Ferguson vs Lee - Vegas

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lifeisgood12345 said:
It's how Lee beat Trinaldo who has never been KO'd

Ferguson was almost finished by Lando Vannata and Lee's striking isn't THAT bad. Lee will never KO him, but one good strike that segues to the ground is possible.

He has been r1 submitted by a scrub in the past, I don't think he's the invincible monster that you guys are making him out to be.
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He caught Trinaldo with a head kick after getting smashed on the feet. And he sub'd him he didn't KO him.

Lando is a dangerous striker and Ferg took the fight on a few days' notice.

You can't bring up him being sub'd by a scrub years ago. That is absolute nonsense. If you think Ferg losing years ago is a concern, then id be damn worried that Lee got stopped by strikes against a pillow fisted BJJ guy two years ago.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Dunham's nearly 36 and has been pretty inactive. He's also had a run of real slow fighters to look really good against. The RDA fight was over 4 years ago and that was before RDA went on his mad blitz. After the RDA fight he got destroyed by Cowboy and Barboza. I haven't watched tape yet but i defo think the line's about right. What is interesting tho is that this is southpaw vs southpaw that could create some problems for Dariush he loves his body kick and it's not there against Dunham.
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RDA beat Cowboy 3 months after the Dunham fight. The RDA that fought Dunham was definitely that same guy.

Dunham's biggest downfall is his ability to get caught. I think people overrate Dariush's finishing ability. He's had one finish in his last 6 fights. I think this fight is pretty likely to go to decision, and I would be fairly surprised to see Dariush win anything but a split if it goes to the cards.
 
Sham5916910 said:
He caught Trinaldo with a head kick after getting smashed on the feet. And he sub'd him he didn't KO him.

Lando is a dangerous striker and Ferg took the fight on a few days' notice.

You can't bring up him being sub'd by a scrub years ago. That is absolute nonsense. If you think Ferg losing years ago is a concern, then id be damn worried that Lee got stopped by strikes against a pillow fisted BJJ guy two years ago.
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That's definitely a concern for Lee, especially when he faces Conor and I bet my left nut on Lee +350 in an attempt to have 4.5 left nuts.

And it is a concern vs Ferguson too-- Ferg's cumulative striking could easily finish him.

But if this becomes a wrestling match, Ferguson is in trouble. He barely beat Danny Castillo by split decision on the mat-- imagine how much trouble Lee would give him on the ground.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
That's definitely a concern for Lee, especially when he faces Conor and I bet my left nut on Lee +350 in an attempt to have 4.5 left nuts.

And it is a concern vs Ferguson too-- Ferg's cumulative striking could easily finish him.

But if this becomes a wrestling match, Ferguson is in trouble. He barely beat Danny Castillo by split decision on the mat-- imagine how much trouble Lee would give him on the ground.
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The castillo fight was a long time ago and im sure ferg learnt from that fight. He took way too many risks. No way he goes for rolling kneebars against lee.
 
Oblivian said:
RDA beat Cowboy 3 months after the Dunham fight. The RDA that fought Dunham was definitely that same guy.

Dunham's biggest downfall is his ability to get caught. I think people overrate Dariush's finishing ability. He's had one finish in his last 6 fights. I think this fight is pretty likely to go to decision, and I would be fairly surprised to see Dariush win anything but a split if it goes to the cards.
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I dont think we saw the new rda until the benson fight a yr after he beat cowboy. If i remember right he lnp cowboy in r1 and r2 and got outstruck by cowboy in r3. For me that was not the terminator version of rda that fought dunham
 
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Jamah said:
They didn't bet on her, but they picked her to win. I checked it

Fights Betting Tips Pick
Ovince St Preux vs Yushin Okami No bet St Preux to win
Claudia Gadelha vs Jessica Andrade No bet Andrade to win
Dong Hyun Kim vs Takanori Gomi 4 units on Dong Hyun Kim at odds of 1.36 | -278 | 9/25 Kim to win
https://mmabettingtips.com/ufc-fight-night-117-betting-tips-picks-predictions/
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The fact they pick Andrade to win but didn't bet her at fairly steep dog odds is fucking retarded and I hope this person/people lurk so I can tell them right now they are fucking pussies
 
Joseph Budden said:
The fact they pick Andrade to win but didn't bet her at fairly steep dog odds is fucking retarded and I hope this person/people lurk so I can tell them right now they are fucking pussies
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They also picked Moras over Evans Smith at UFC 215 but didn't bet on her.
They try not to risk and only make "safe picks". It's weird.
 
Joseph Budden said:
The fact they pick Andrade to win but didn't bet her at fairly steep dog odds is fucking retarded and I hope this person/people lurk so I can tell them right now they are fucking pussies
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I'd be so pissed if i paid for their "VIP" picks...they're at a net loss of -6.65 for the last 10 events

edit: make that -4.25 over the past 25.
 
Jamah said:
They didn't bet on her, but they picked her to win. I checked it

Fights Betting Tips Pick
Ovince St Preux vs Yushin Okami No bet St Preux to win
Claudia Gadelha vs Jessica Andrade No bet Andrade to win
Dong Hyun Kim vs Takanori Gomi 4 units on Dong Hyun Kim at odds of 1.36 | -278 | 9/25 Kim to win
https://mmabettingtips.com/ufc-fight-night-117-betting-tips-picks-predictions/
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LOL pick her to win but don't even play her at +250

instead they played Luke Jameau

Another tout that chooses to play big favourites, I remember they played Michael Chandler vs Brent Primus at like -700
 
Last event people paid luca for two -500 prop bets and one didnt hit. Event before rockhold -450. That man has no shame. Joke
 
Oblivian said:
Dunham leaves a lot to be desired defensively, but I believe he's better with his hands offensively for sure. I think Dunham is without a doubt a better wrestler too.

Dariush to me is a lesser version of RDA. I think people forget that literally every single play by play had the Dunham/RDA fight scored for Dunham. I think Dunham has all the attributes to give Dariush a lot of trouble. To me, at +200 its a no brainer.
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Oblivian said:
RDA beat Cowboy 3 months after the Dunham fight. The RDA that fought Dunham was definitely that same guy.

Dunham's biggest downfall is his ability to get caught. I think people overrate Dariush's finishing ability. He's had one finish in his last 6 fights. I think this fight is pretty likely to go to decision, and I would be fairly surprised to see Dariush win anything but a split if it goes to the cards.
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interesting point about the RDA-dunham fight, with dariush being a 90% version of RDA, to so speak.. you've got my attention here.
 
dunham dec +335 > dunham ML +200 i think.. if anyone's leaning his way...

i'm aware dariush got stopped by ramsay once, he'll never live that down.. i maintain that ramsay showed incredible skill in that finish, dariush basically rolled out of danger (tried to) and kept scrambling for 30+ seconds, and ramsay showed some pretty amazing positioning/scrambling/etc and never let him off the hook. rewatch it if you don't believe me, it was masterful by ramsay

dariush has also improved since that fight, clearly
 
Dariush has never lost without being finished. He was doing fairly well vs Barboza + Chiesa until getting ended. And Dunham hasn't finished a fight in forever.

Also Dunham is almost 36 and hasn't had a real fight in almost 2 years. Just a decision win vs Rick Glenn fighting up a weight class on short notice. Dariush is 28 and up and coming.

It's pretty clear that Dariush should be fave bc he is the better fighter and it's a pretty good matchup for him. -230 juice may be a bit much, but I don't see any argument that Dunham +200 is a good bet either.

I'd say this line is fair at its current price.
 
Zee's MMA Subscriber said:
LOL pick her to win but don't even play her at +250

instead they played Luke Jameau

Another tout that chooses to play big favourites, I remember they played Michael Chandler vs Brent Primus at like -700
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I did that i played chandler at -700 for 10u i was even throwing the L word around..good lesson learned..big hit on the BR
 
Zee's MMA Subscriber said:
LOL pick her to win but don't even play her at +250

instead they played Luke Jameau

Another tout that chooses to play big favourites, I remember they played Michael Chandler vs Brent Primus at like -700
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To be fair i have seen him be spot on a few times
 
EzFlyer said:
dunham dec +335 > dunham ML +200 i think.. if anyone's leaning his way...

i'm aware dariush got stopped by ramsay once, he'll never live that down.. i maintain that ramsay showed incredible skill in that finish, dariush basically rolled out of danger (tried to) and kept scrambling for 30+ seconds, and ramsay showed some pretty amazing positioning/scrambling/etc and never let him off the hook. rewatch it if you don't believe me, it was masterful by ramsay

dariush has also improved since that fight, clearly
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Before seeing the line that was my thought too, but at a 100 point difference and Dariush coming off that life changer I'm not sure it's worth it. Gonna wait and see where the lines move, I'll likely be on Dunham dec but I'm not rushing to play the current lines. Over is where it's at imo
 
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