UFC 216 - Ferguson vs Lee - Vegas

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Did he really look that bad vs Browne? I'd say he was overly passive to compensate for being overly aggressive vs Stipe, but he still was doing far more damage between the 2 fighters.

IIRC Browne hurt his hand early in the fight so yeah Travis looked really bad. Well they both looked really bad. Travis had an injury but what was Werdum's excuse? Seriously re-watch this fight before betting Doom he looked painfully bad IMO.

After watching that fight he made it on my list of fighters not to bet. Werdum is 40 now...
 
Im interested in what others think will happen with the line movement on the Ferguson / Lee fight? Currently the best I can get with my online books is Ferguson @ 1.44 (-227) which I personally think is about right. I'm thinking of investing a large % of my small bankroll on Ferguson to later hedge leaving a small amount (eg 5-10u) on Ferguson when his odds hopefully come in? Am i out of my mind here or do others think his odds will come in?
 
I think line is more likely to shift toward Lee. Not certain bc people hate Lee. But I don't see how Ferguson should ever be more than -150 here.
 
My gut feel is the line stays in this ballpark. 180 to 250 etc.

(Unless one side gets blessed by a certain someone)
 
Man, Lee's grappling is really underrated. He looked legit on the ground. His top game is good. Smooth transition, back take, good rnc. Strong and fast, cardio is good. Only thing is he doesnt seem to deal too well with pressure and getting hit.. something Ferguson will def bring hard for 5 rounds. If Ferguson doesnt come in with a good game plan and allow Lee to grapple, Lee can give him alot of troubles.
 
My gut feel is the line stays in this ballpark. 180 to 250 etc.

(Unless one side gets blessed by a certain someone)
Well, since you've subtly referred to me, now is the time to reveal my blessing.

Tony Ferguson in the lower 200s or better is #elite and has been given the #sealofapproval

***Disclaimer: The #sealofapproval is a level 9 #elite play. It is a 100% guaranteed win, only held back from being a voltron 5000 level 10 #elite play by not having underdog returns
 
Am I crazy for thinking dj/ Borg itd at -150 is the best bet so far for this card? I fail to see a better bet. Dj in 3rd, 4th, 5th at +600-1200 are solid as well.
 
Well, since you've subtly referred to me, now is the time to reveal my blessing.

Tony Ferguson in the lower 200s or better is #elite and has been given the #sealofapproval

***Disclaimer: The #sealofapproval is a level 9 #elite play. It is a 100% guaranteed win, only held back from being a voltron 5000 level 10 #elite play by not having underdog returns

Can you elaborate? BC I don't get what makes Ferguson better than Lee.

Ferg has 2 real wins including a narrow decision vs RDA who was getting rekt by weight cuts and quit LW after, and against Edson Barboza who had Ferguson in trouble in round 1.

He also was nearly finished by Lando Vannatta, beat Danny Castillo by a hair, likely lost round 1 to Abel Trujillo, edged out Yves Edwards. He has some really close close calls vs mediocre competition.

Also he's 33 and more likely to decline than improve at this point. He is really vulnerable for a #2 fighter on 9 fight streak.

Meanwhile Lee is 25 and has an elite reach, elite strength, great athleticism, and has already put together a really impressive UFC resume. Ferguson has never fought an opponent with Lee's physical profile or wrestling ability. Lee poses a unique challenge for a guy who has struggled against turds in the past.

So why do people think Ferg is a good bet? I don't see it.
 
Can you elaborate? BC I don't get what makes Ferguson better than Lee.

Ferg has 2 real wins including a narrow decision vs RDA who was getting rekt by weight cuts and quit LW after, and against Edson Barboza who had Ferguson in trouble in round 1.

He also was nearly finished by Lando Vannatta, beat Danny Castillo by a hair, likely lost round 1 to Abel Trujillo, edged out Yves Edwards. He has some really close close calls vs mediocre competition.

Also he's 33 and more likely to decline than improve at this point. He is really vulnerable for a #2 fighter on 9 fight streak.

Meanwhile Lee is 25 and has an elite reach, elite strength, great athleticism, and has already put together a really impressive UFC resume. Ferguson has never fought an opponent with Lee's physical profile or wrestling ability. Lee poses a unique challenge for a guy who has struggled against turds in the past.

So why do people think Ferg is a good bet? I don't see it.

I won't go into too much detail, but a few things. It being 5 rounds is a big factor in favour of Ferg. He has many more ways to finish and is more durable. Lee often leaves his neck exposed as his TD of choice is the double leg.

I'm expecting Ferg to apply heavy pressure, force Lee to shoot a sloppy shot > snapdown > d'arce. How do you see Lee winning?
 
Can you elaborate? BC I don't get what makes Ferguson better than Lee.

Ferg has 2 real wins including a narrow decision vs RDA who was getting rekt by weight cuts and quit LW after, and against Edson Barboza who had Ferguson in trouble in round 1.

He also was nearly finished by Lando Vannatta, beat Danny Castillo by a hair, likely lost round 1 to Abel Trujillo, edged out Yves Edwards. He has some really close close calls vs mediocre competition.

Also he's 33 and more likely to decline than improve at this point. He is really vulnerable for a #2 fighter on 9 fight streak.

Meanwhile Lee is 25 and has an elite reach, elite strength, great athleticism, and has already put together a really impressive UFC resume. Ferguson has never fought an opponent with Lee's physical profile or wrestling ability. Lee poses a unique challenge for a guy who has struggled against turds in the past.

So why do people think Ferg is a good bet? I don't see it.

Two real wins? GTFO out dude. Thomson (two years and 18 months earlier he respectively beat Nate Diaz and Benson (robbed)), RDA, Barboza, Tibau. And it's how he's beating them. No idea how Thomson survived but he got wrecked. Barboza and Tibau were both stopped inside two rounds and the RDA fight wasn't close. You could argue it was 48-47 but Ferg clearly won that fight and decisively won the rounds he won. Also I do not remember Barboza having him in any trouble in r1. If you are questioning who Ferg has beat, you need to do the same for Lee. And who cares if he lost r1 to Abel? Lee was 1-1 with Escudero going into r3, he lost r1 to Trinaldo. It means jack shit especially as Ferg gets stronger and stronger and this is a five round fight. He was almost ko'd by Lando? Guess what he wasn't and came back and won. Lee was KO'd by Santos. You are really making baseless points.

Lee has a one inch reach adv which is nothing. And it especially means nothing as Lee has terrible standup. Ferg will kill him on the feet. Lee's never fought someone like Ferg or near Ferg's level this is a huge step up for him.
 
Even though this fight is now off, lazy analysis like this can't go unchecked

My dude, PVZ does not have white belt level BJJ and Waterson does not have bluebelt level BJJ. They may be ranked as those belts but it does not reflect their grappling.

That's the problem here, the rankings really do reflect the ability....that's why its relevant to bring them up. Namajunas absolutely looks like a brown belt in the cage and Van Zant looks like a low level blue at best.


PVZ has only been out grappled by Waterson and Rose. She dominated Curran, Felice and Chambers on the ground.

Honestly can't tell if you're trolling, but...

Her "domination" over Herrig involved Van Zant going for the WMMA throw off the bat, getting her back taken, mounted and nearly armbarred within 90 seconds of the 1st. The only time she got the upper hand in the grappling was when Herrig gassed out after a round.

Her "domination" over Curran had her get hit with the WMMA throw a minute in and put on her back the rest of the round. Curran also hit her with the WMMA throw and a trip again in round 2.

Her "domination" over Chambers included a couple failed attempts at the WMMA throw before kneeing her in the eye and choking her when she fell down. Same thing with Curran above except strikes to finish after the knee.

Mind you those last 2 have a combined record of 9-8.

If you watch PVZ's fights you will see she is a bad grappler who makes big mistakes while scrambling wildly.


no confidence in Eye's ground game, she is lost off her back and she has only ever completed one takedown in the UFC. If this does end up on the ground then it will probably be with PVZ on top.

Unless Eye got rocked with a big shot, I doubt it. Plus do you really expect a natural 125er to be taking down fighters like McMann, Pena, and Tate who are all shredded at 135 and primarily grapplers? Not being able to take down fighters like that doesn't mean you can't take down a strawweight in PVZ who routinely goes down to a simple head and arm throw and then gets stuck there.

Stop with the belts please, it doesnt matter. Waterson is great on the ground and Namajunas is one of the best in the division. Both better than eye.

See above. It matters more often than not (ie: on average you're not going to catch blue belt-level grapplers subbing brown belts). It's also easier to just reference belts in this situation because they match up pretty well with the fighters actual ability unlike someone like Jon Jones who giggles about having a white belt but has been grappling for over 15 years and was a D1-quality wrestler.

Namajunas is great and showed how bad the skill gap is between her and PVZ, but we don't know much about Waterson at 115 aside from a can in Magana and a PVZ that fell into the same old trap as usual.

Bottom line: there is nothing logical on paper to lead someone to believe PVZ has a grappling advantage over a larger opponent with more experience. If some stupid shit happened and Eye got subbed with an imanari roll to darce then so be it, but prefight analysis doesn't make sense to give the edge to PVZ in the grappling.

But yeah its off so who cares
 
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Am I crazy for thinking dj/ Borg itd at -150 is the best bet so far for this card? I fail to see a better bet. Dj in 3rd, 4th, 5th at +600-1200 are solid as well.
Not a big bet, but I have u4.5 at -123 and Dj R5 +1600
 
@Orion I agree about PVZ but I really think Waterson is slightly better then a blue, I think she has subs over "blackbelts" and such. Obviously she's not amazing or anything but she's fairly solid despite being undersized.
 
Even though this fight is now off, lazy analysis like this can't go unchecked



That's the problem here, the rankings really do reflect the ability....that's why its relevant to bring them up. Namajunas absolutely looks like a brown belt in the cage and Van Zant looks like a low level blue at best.




Honestly can't tell if you're trolling, but...

Her "domination" over Herrig involved Van Zant going for the WMMA throw off the bat, getting her back taken, mounted and nearly armbarred within 90 seconds of the 1st. The only time she got the upper hand in the grappling was when Herrig gassed out after a round.

Her "domination" over Curran had her get hit with the WMMA throw a minute in and put on her back the rest of the round. Curran also hit her with the WMMA throw and a trip again in round 2.

Her "domination" over Chambers included a couple failed attempts at the WMMA throw before kneeing her in the eye and choking her when she fell down. Same thing with Curran above except strikes to finish after the knee.

Mind you those last 2 have a combined record of 9-8.

If you watch PVZ's fights you will see she is a bad grappler who makes big mistakes while scrambling wildly.




Unless Eye got rocked with a big shot, I doubt it. Plus do you really expect a natural 125er to be taking down fighters like McMann, Pena, and Tate who are all shredded at 135 and primarily grapplers? Not being able to take down fighters like that doesn't mean you can't take down a strawweight in PVZ who routinely goes down to a simple head and arm throw and then gets stuck there.



See above. It matters more often than not (ie: on average you're not going to catch blue belt-level grapplers subbing brown belts). It's also easier to just reference belts in this situation because they match up pretty well with the fighters actual ability unlike someone like Jon Jones who giggles about having a white belt but has been grappling for over 15 years and was a D1-quality wrestler.

Namajunas is great and showed how bad the skill gap is between her and PVZ, but we don't know much about Waterson at 115 aside from a can in Magana and a PVZ that fell into the same old trap as usual.

Bottom line: there is nothing logical on paper to lead someone to believe PVZ has a grappling advantage over a larger opponent with more experience. If some stupid shit happened and Eye got subbed with an imanari roll to darce then so be it, but prefight analysis doesn't make sense to give the edge to PVZ.

But yeah its off so who cares
LOL you called her a white belt and now she's a blue belt?

Just stop, this is MMA not BJJ. I'd rather look at the skill of the competitor rather than refer to their known BJJ rank to make an assessment of their grappling.

I never said PVZ is some great grappler but she's certainly not on a white belt level like you said and Waterson is not at a blue belt level like you said. This is the problem when you just read wiki or UFC.com to make an assumption of a fighters skill.

Maybe "domination" was a strong word but PVZ did look to be the superior grappler in the 3 fights I mentioned.

IDK how you can trash PVZ's grappling but not Eye's. Eye has mediocre takedown defence at best and does nothing once her back is on the mat, her grappling has looked like trash in the UFC.

At least Paige has shown to be a decent scrambler, Eye is just a starfish.
 
I think this is too much of a step up for Lee, I think he gets finished in 2 rounds
 
@Orion I agree about PVZ but I really think Waterson is slightly better then a blue, I think she has subs over "blackbelts" and such. Obviously she's not amazing or anything but she's fairly solid despite being undersized.
Yes she tapped Penne who is a black belt and Waterson began fighting in 2007. On average it takes a 1-2 years to get a blue belt.

Anyone that has watched her fight that has a simple understanding of grappling can tell that she is better than a blue belt.
 
Zees MMA Subscriber = MMA Betting Tips

Are you still selling your live betting service lmao?
 
The Dunham line is way off here. I mentioned this prior to the Glenn/Tucker fight. He is very underrated. I really don't think Dariush is better than Dunham anywhere besides in straight BJJ.
 
The Dunham line is way off here. I mentioned this prior to the Glenn/Tucker fight. He is very underrated. I really don't think Dariush is better than Dunham anywhere besides in straight BJJ.
Dariush is certainly the better kicker. I imagine his gameplan is gonna be to stay at kicking range and try to outpoint Dunham.
 
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