UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas

[King_Brown]

maia can wrestle hard for two rounds for sure. watch the flare fight for example if he doesnt get the sub its all about survival in the third. then again maia has always option to pull guard. if it was 5 rounder id see value in mas but not atm

 

[Chris Wang]

Best win on a single play is 19k

Worst loss about 11 k

Not rich yet, but trying

Damn , which fights were those?

Masvidal is smart enough to keep the distance and will be circling and boxing all day, I think he's physically stronger than Maia as well

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

are we really comparing old bendos double legs vs prime huge maia's chainwrestling?

Masvidal is the future WW champ, he's the best right now, no one can beat him when he's on, Masvidal is entering his prime now. Already took that underdog shot on Masvidal, very confident in this play.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

I absolutely love Masvidal and Yair as dogs. Pettis at +300 is also very tempting, I think the HW champ is a solid play at current price as well. Alvarez vs Poirier is a coin flip, odds are on point. Also looking to back JJ if she gets cheaper.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Gaining confidence in Maia as I watch tape and see how Mas stance is ALWAYS is very upright, and his footwork is sneaky but nothing that is going to stop Maia from grabbing something especially in the first 2 rounds. Mas being so kick heavy vs southpaw Benson also leads me to believe he might have a harder time working behind his favored jab. Kicking at the open side of southpaw Maia would be very dumb

 

[King_Brown]

Masvidal is the future WW champ, he's the best right now, no one can beat him when he's on, Masvidal is entering his prime now. Already took that underdog shot on Masvidal, very confident in this play.

I agree. he beats woodley imo easily. yo

I absolutely love Masvidal and Yair as dogs. Pettis at +300 is also very tempting, I think the HW champ is a solid play at current price as well. Alvarez vs Poirier is a coin flip, odds are on point. Also looking to back JJ if she gets cheaper.

Sorry but pettis will get ragdolled.he is not a finisher. cejudo imo outstruck benavidez. if moraga was able to force grappling with sergio then cejudo can do it as well. I think he outstrikes sergio on the feet anyway. I don't see how Sergio wins this fight except low percentage headkick, flying knee or smth

 

[Oblivian]

Gaining confidence in Maia as I watch tape and see how Mas stance is ALWAYS is very upright, and his footwork is sneaky but nothing that is going to stop Maia from grabbing something especially in the first 2 rounds. Mas being so kick heavy vs southpaw Benson also leads me to believe he might have a harder time working behind his favored jab. Kicking at the open side of southpaw Maia would be very dumb

Mas can defend takedowns, but it's not like he's lightning quick with a sprawl or circling off so he doesn't get touched. I just see Masvidal looking to defend after Maia grabs a leg and Maia sneaks his way to the back against the fence. You can't just fight off single legs with Maia or let him get you against the fence. Masvidal just doesn't show that hustle, space, or gameplan to avoid it 2 of 3 rounds IMO.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Mas can defend takedowns, but it's not like he's lightning quick with a sprawl or circling off so he doesn't get touched. I just see Masvidal looking to defend after Maia grabs a leg and Maia sneaks his way to the back against the fence. You can't just fight off single legs with Maia or let him get you against the fence. Masvidal just doesn't show that hustle, space, or gameplan to avoid it 2 of 3 rounds IMO.

Agreed. One of the big things I was watching out for is how often Mas puts himself in a position or at a distance to just be grabbed. That's really all Maia needs to do, it's ridiculous how he can just koala bear someone once he grabs them like he did to Brown in 1 and 2. And like you said, there's nothing really that leads me to believe Mas can avoid getting grabbed in the early rounds. Think Mas being popular at the moment is maybe skewing public perception a bit on these lines

 

[Stunna77]

Sorry but pettis will get ragdolled.he is not a finisher. cejudo imo outstruck benavidez. if moraga was able to force grappling with sergio then cejudo can do it as well. I think he outstrikes sergio on the feet anyway. I don't see how Sergio wins this fight except low percentage headkick, flying knee or smth

When has Cejudo ever ragdolled anyone? His mma wrestling doesn't stack up to his wrestling accolades. I think it is a close fight on the feet and Cejudo will probably look to mix in td's, but I highly doubt we see Pettis get ragdolled. Pettis dec seems to be the only line on that fight with any value.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Pettis dec seems like value above +500 but I have a hard time seeing Pettis winning. Better off hoping for Henry dec to drop back down imo or pass. Henry looked like he's finally coming into his own and living up to his potential vs Benavidez. This is an Olympic wrestler vs a Pettis. Won't be surprised at all if Henry is figuring things out well enough now to wrestlefuck Pettis

 

[Stunna77]

I definitely favor Cejudo and think he will have some success wrestling or using the td threat to have success striking, but I think his dec line is something like -170 atm. I still think this is a close fight so -170 / +525 is a no brainer.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Also officially have a unit on Andrade for reasons stated throughout the thread after tapewatch. Her female Lineker-esque style seems like it could be very bad for Joanna. JJ has nice ranged strikes, but I think Andrade either eats those or steps in every time and JJ does not look like shes much faster or better angling off when crowded than Hill does. ATT is the big worrying factor for me or else I might've done a little more on Andrade

 

[LEMONZEST]

Agreed. One of the big things I was watching out for is how often Mas puts himself in a position or at a distance to just be grabbed. That's really all Maia needs to do, it's ridiculous how he can just koala bear someone once he grabs them like he did to Brown in 1 and 2. And like you said, there's nothing really that leads me to believe Mas can avoid getting grabbed in the early rounds. Think Mas being popular at the moment is maybe skewing public perception a bit on these lines

False.

 

[Sham5916910]

I absolutely love Masvidal and Yair as dogs. Pettis at +300 is also very tempting, I think the HW champ is a solid play at current price as well. Alvarez vs Poirier is a coin flip, odds are on point. Also looking to back JJ if she gets cheaper.

I thought the same re sergio until i watched tape. He just switches off and brain farts every fight and he doesnt have good tdd. Cej will also be a lot physically stronger. I cant trust serigio's chin either. I know cej is no finisher but he throws with intent and dropped jb with a left hook same punch benoit kod sergio with. Sergio has lovely standup but no power cej will walk through them to close the gap. Want cej back @ -300 tho not parlaying him @ -400

 

[LEMONZEST]

Agreed. One of the big things I was watching out for is how often Mas puts himself in a position or at a distance to just be grabbed. That's really all Maia needs to do, it's ridiculous how he can just koala bear someone once he grabs them like he did to Brown in 1 and 2. And like you said, there's nothing really that leads me to believe Mas can avoid getting grabbed in the early rounds. Think Mas being popular at the moment is maybe skewing public perception a bit on these lines

Agreed. And Mas isn't really that guy that is going to circle and potshot for 3 rounds. Mas is going to try and KO him in rounds 1 and 2. Mas already said this is his plan and no reason to question it. He said the same thing v. Cowboy and walked out there and did it.

 

[piglord]

Also officially have a unit on Andrade for reasons stated throughout the thread after tapewatch. Her female Lineker-esque style seems like it could be very bad for Joanna. JJ has nice ranged strikes, but I think Andrade either eats those or steps in every time and JJ does not look like shes much faster or better angling off when crowded than Hill does. ATT is the big worrying factor for me or else I might've done a little more on Andrade

jj isn't going to be able to avoid pocket exchanges, where andrade will have the better power/chin.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Agreed. And Mas isn't really that guy that is going to circle and potshot for 3 rounds. Mas is going to try and KO him in rounds 1 and 2. Mas already said this is his plan and no reason to question it. He said the same thing v. Cowboy and walked out there and did it.

More confidence increase in Maia. Leading with the right straight (likely to do when Maia is southpaw and he couldn't get the jab going at all vs Benson) with an upright stance is only gonna make it easier for Maia to grab him when he ducks the punch

 

[Joseph Budden]

jj isn't going to be able to avoid pocket exchanges, where andrade will have the better power/chin.

Yeah thats what i'm thinking. Andrade won't allow JJ to drift to a decision like she did vs Val and KK and Andrade's hands are much tighter in those pocket exchanges. Andrade is the right side here

 

[P4p Islam]

I absolutely love Masvidal and Yair as dogs. Pettis at +300 is also very tempting, I think the HW champ is a solid play at current price as well. Alvarez vs Poirier is a coin flip, odds are on point. Also looking to back JJ if she gets cheaper.

Im high on yair.

Yair is an extremely good range fighter and is good at avoiding damage. Those types of fighters are exactly the ones that give frankie the most trouble. I can't remember which fight it was, but I remember bendo having success keeping frankie on the outside with kicks. Aldo had similar success using kicks and counters, along with swift footwork and movement, and yair has shown to be adept in both areas.

I see yair winning by decision.

 

[mkess101]

Assuming he's doing this though surely his books are going to be wise to the fact they've all got a client called a Mr L. Fury arbing the shit of them by virtue of line movement attributed to himself? At the very least wouldn't they severely limit him?

Depends on how he's betting (what books, how much he's spreading it around, online vs Vegas, etc.)