UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas

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iGnP said:
I kinda think cejudo -3.5 at +110 might be the best bet on the fight but I'm not running to bet that either. I don't really think highly of Pettis at all and Cejudo is only gonna be getting better between performances

Edit at least it's better than Cejudo dec at -178. Ew
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not loving that, personally. cejudo has no finishing skills.. scary to lay -3.5...
 
painin the arse all these line movements but hardly any books have props out yet..
 
EzFlyer said:
not loving that, personally. cejudo has no finishing skills.. scary to lay -3.5...
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It may have bit of a degen play but I'd be shocked if Pettis can stop the takedown. I'm kinda hoping Cejudo doesn't try and stand for too long....
 
TimCoreCombat said:
That's just not true from Luca. Stipe is a fire fighter for fun. That's like his family. He isn't doing that as his job. He spends a lot of time there but he isn't sitting around a firehouse all day.
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Sounds like bullshit, but makes you think, when it comes from a pro, who is actually putting his money where his mouth is and who might be well connected. Then again, if you're in a position that your 4 u and what ever your followers put in play move the lines 20-30%, one might be tempted to play risk free 10 u for the other opposite result after the lines have moved.
 
iGnP said:
It may have bit of a degen play but I'd be shocked if Pettis can stop the takedown. I'm kinda hoping Cejudo doesn't try and stand for too long....
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Sergio tdd suck. Benoit and cariaso took him down.
 
Yea I'm loving cejudo dec prop and the over even though it's juiced
 


Masvidal mentioning not really working on his jitz but more striking and wrestling based. Explains with his style he ain't gonna get wrestlefucked so he's never in those sub situations (loosely paraphrasing everything here)

I hope Mas is fucking tremendous with his back to the fence fighting of chainwrestling and trips and is able to exit those scenarios quickly otherwise it's super clear that a sub is happening.

But if Maia won't get that TD I think the TKO is very likely. Only issue with a ITD (don't even know odds, my bookie has none) is Masvidal has taken his foot of the gas in other fights he had won..
 
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usernamee said:


Masvidal mentioning not really working on his jitz but more striking and wrestling based. Explains with his style he ain't gonna get wrestlefucked so he's never in those sub situations (loosely paraphrasing everything here)

I hope Mas is fucking tremendous with his back to the fence fighting of chainwrestling and trips and is able to exit those scenarios quickly otherwise it's super clear that a sub is happening.

But if Maia won't get that TD I think the TKO is very likely. Only issue with a ITD (don't even know odds, my bookie has none) is Masvidal has taken his foot of the break in other fights he had won..
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It's also much harder to get aggressive and find the KO when you are dealing with a major takedown threat. I think Masvidal's best bet is to stay conservative on the feet and pick away at him. If he can keep it standing then outpointing Maia on the feet shouldn't be much of a problem whereas opening up could be a recipe for disaster.
 
Lol @ people thinking Mas has a chance against maia.

Maia will either strangle him or control him on the ground and win via dec.

Doesnt matter what the odds say boys, its like DC vs AJ 2... We all know how this goes. Dont get deluded by the odds
 
mkess101 said:
Absolutely. You stated it perfectly. At this point he absolutely makes his play then releases it. Even small line movement can lock up guaranteed profit.

The guy is a fraud and a far less successful bettor than he claims but that doesn't mean he isn't smart. He's carved himself out a nice way to make a living with (now) seemingly little risk.
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Assuming he's doing this though surely his books are going to be wise to the fact they've all got a client called a Mr L. Fury arbing the shit of them by virtue of line movement attributed to himself? At the very least wouldn't they severely limit him?
 
Yotsuya said:
Sounds like bullshit, but makes you think, when it comes from a pro, who is actually putting his money where his mouth is and who might be well connected. Then again, if you're in a position that your 4 u and what ever your followers put in play move the lines 20-30%, one might be tempted to play risk free 10 u for the other opposite result after the lines have moved.
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I'm playing Stipe at the price. I think he's tough, has power, hasn't taken tons of damage in his career and can drop JDS. I am also going to keep playing against Luca as he changes lines. I actually appreciate what Luca in that it closing the lines imo and I can pick the winner or value without having to worry about laying juice.
 
EzFlyer said:
i am heavy on maia. 3u so far. that said... "lol @ anyone thinking mas has NO chance"
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I like Maia as well at current odds but he is certainly no lock. Mas can scrap and is one punch from putting Maia away. This is true gambling.
 
NinjaCat456 said:
Assuming he's doing this though surely his books are going to be wise to the fact they've all got a client called a Mr L. Fury arbing the shit of them by virtue of line movement attributed to himself? At the very least wouldn't they severely limit him?
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If I were a major book I wouldn't care. I would think that the amount of juice he brings to my book would surely outweigh the amount I have to pay him on freerolls, much less his losses that he accumulates quite often even with the freerolled portion.
 
chemmy said:
It's also much harder to get aggressive and find the KO when you are dealing with a major takedown threat. I think Masvidal's best bet is to stay conservative on the feet and pick away at him. If he can keep it standing then outpointing Maia on the feet shouldn't be much of a problem whereas opening up could be a recipe for disaster.
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I dunno man. If Maia goes for TDs throughout the first round and gets NONE, he's gonna be on his way gassing BIGTIME and Mas can easily put it on him then. We saw a glimpse of this in the Matt Brown fight where when Matt actually managed to stuff a TD he hurt Maia and then made some questionable decisions and went back into defending the choke situation

I'm not on either guy yet. Need to watch some fights
 
ChoKuRei said:
Lol @ people thinking Mas has a chance against maia.

Maia will either strangle him or control him on the ground and win via dec.

Doesnt matter what the odds say boys, its like DC vs AJ 2... We all know how this goes. Dont get deluded by the odds
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lol dude. i was on DC both times but DC almost got knocked out both times. Its super easy to envision a scenario in which he gets knocked out.
 
Feel like I won't break any new ground on Mas/Maia. My money is in on Maia and it's gonna stay that way unless there's a major line shift.

Starting tape study on the prelims today. Early lean pretty heavily towards Jotko, and a smaller one on Knight but I'll need to watch more on that fight.
 
ChoKuRei said:
Lol @ people thinking Mas has a chance against maia.
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Just letting you know it sounds dumb when people say stuff like this. Even if you want to say Maia has a 90+% chance of winning there are better ways of expressing it.

If you think there is crazy value on Maia at + odds then fill your boots. I think it is a close fight not because of the odds but because both guys have a clear path to victory. Mas is not a slouch.
 
Jamah said:
Henderson got 0 takedowns in the first 3 rounds, but he managed to win a split decision.
If Maia doesn't get the takedown he will get knocked out, his stand up isn't good and he doesn't like getting hit.
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are we really comparing old bendos double legs vs prime huge maia's chainwrestling?
 
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