UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas

[JDB]

He knows better than me, but what happens when Maia scored just one td? Its usually a lot easier to at least do better at something if youve been practicing if youre overmatched. I thought Mas would prob lose by decision, but if hes not even bothering with jiu jitsu it seems logical an early td could lead to a sub just from not drilling positions and advances Maia favors

If Maia gets his hooks its over. Mas just needs to keep Maia from doing his human blanket > take the back > choke combo.

It makes sense that he's focusing wrestling.

 

[Guile]

I think Poirier will knock Eddie's head off.

 

[cagebrain]

I think Poirier will knock Eddie's head off.

thanks for the #elite analysis

 

[MacPherson911]

Stipe not training full time? That sounds crazy. I was thinking of betting on fight going to the judges, but maybe I should go O3 instead.

Stipe is absolutely training MMA full-time. He was a full time fire fighter and now is a "firefighter" similar to how Shaq is a cop, as a PR tool. He hangs with the fire guys and will work a "shift" at the station if somebody's filming promo material but please believe that Stipe is a full time fighter.

 

[OutRun]

LMAO! Was contemplating pass or Maia as dog, but Mas straight up says hes not even working jits just wrestling. Dude.....cmon.

Betting Maia.

At this rate you may as well just take Maia SUB at +180. If Masvidal's really working on wrestling, Maia will either tap him on the ground or won't achieve anything.

 

[roldan]

http://www.sherdog.com/events/UFC-211-Miocic-vs-Dos-Santos-2-57823

UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos 2
MAY 13, 2017
American Airlines Center | Dallas, Texas

MAIN CARD (PPV, 10 p.m. ET)

Heavyweight Title:

Junior Dos Santos +175
Stipe Miocic -245

Over 1.5 -190
Under 1.5 +150
–

Strawweight Title:

Jessica Andrade +125
Joanna Jedrzejczyk -165

Over 3.5 -140
Under 3.5 +100
–

Jorge Masvidal +135
Demian Maia -175

Over 1.5 -190
Under 1.5 +150
–

Eddie Alvarez +100
Dustin Poirier -140

Over 1.5 -190
Under 1.5 +150
–

Sergio Pettis +170
Henry Cejudo -230

Over 2.5 -190
Under 2.5 +150
–

Yair Rodriguez +180
Frankie Edgar -260

Over 2.5 -215
Under 2.5 +165
–
——————–

Stipe, JJ, Masvidal ( poor Maia ), Alvarez, Cejudo, Edgar

 

[waiguoren]

You must be rich.

What's your best win or worst loss?

Best win on a single play is 19k

Worst loss about 11 k

Not rich yet, but trying

 

[Yotsuya]

At this rate you may as well just take Maia SUB at +180. If Masvidal's really working on wrestling, Maia will either tap him on the ground or won't achieve anything.

Sounds almost like he's decided to either keep it standing and KO Maia or if it keeps going to the ground rather take the easy way out than get dominated for 3 rounds. U1.5 gets tempting too.

 

[wack3d]

At this rate you may as well just take Maia SUB at +180. If Masvidal's really working on wrestling, Maia will either tap him on the ground or won't achieve anything.

its not that simple.. maia could definetely win a decision(most likely outcome imo) no matter what masvidal is training =/

 

[AmericanBeauty]

also i hope he juices the joanna odds too so i could get andrade at better odds. i really dont see how JJ wins this fight.

Gratulation on your wins last week!
I also think that Joanna will get smashed.

 

[Oblivian]

If I've learned anything about success this past year, it's that Trump-style tactics really do work.

Absolutely. Being loud, controversial, and all over social media works in a lot of instances. I'll give Luca credit for that - he's made sure his name is always in the conversation.

More stable, yes. But potentially a lot less profitable. The stronger the bettor, the less willing he will be to want to sell his picks. When others follow his plays, the value he seeks gets degraded.

I'm going to assume two things - 1. He places his own bet first. 2. The people buying tout picks aren't very price sensitive. Assume Luca recommends a play at +100 and it's somewhere like -130 to -150 when his subscribers get around to seeing it. My guess is they still play it. Furthermore, it's almost self-fulfilling marketing. It makes his subscribers want to watch closer and be on the ball to get that price. Also, when he is moving a line, I have no doubt that people assign more validity to him. Once you create a following, it's easier to get more followers than when you first started.

Again, I don't follow him at all besides what people post in here. But if his numbers are true on subscriber income and I'm assuming he also has income from advertisers or partnership with books, that's a nice thing to have. A good portion of my income is from the company profit, but I always made sure I had a salary that was plenty to live off of. I'd never want to be a professional gambler without a stream of income besides gambling winnings.

 

[waiguoren]

I'm going to assume two things - 1. He places his own bet first. 2. The people buying tout picks aren't very price sensitive. Assume Luca recommends a play at +100 and it's somewhere like -130 to -150 when his subscribers get around to seeing it. My guess is they still play it. Furthermore, it's almost self-fulfilling marketing. It makes his subscribers want to watch closer and be on the ball to get that price. Also, when he is moving a line, I have no doubt that people assign more validity to him. Once you create a following, it's easier to get more followers than when you first started.

Ok, now I see. And I think you're right.

 

[King_Brown]

Gratulation on your wins last week!

<[analyzed}>

 

[King_Brown]

definitely agree with the guy who said mas's last three wins are overblown. last time he faced a grappler was bendo and he lost to a natural LW. i think mas would beat woodley tho. but maia is a bad match up for him. its all about how dudes match up to each other.
pearson MEH
Ellenberger... meh lol
Cerrone is a good win but donald is primary a muay thai fighter. Maia is huge and will force grappling exchanges. I think money will come in on Maia when we see face offs. Maia will be the bigger man,

 

[Jamah]

definitely agree with the guy who said mas's last three wins are overblown. last time he faced a grappler was bendo and he lost to a natural LW. i think mas would beat woodley tho. but maia is a bad match up for him. its all about how dudes match up to each other.
pearson MEH
Ellenberger... meh lol
Cerrone is a good win but donald is primary a muay thai fighter. Maia is huge and will force grappling exchanges. I think money will come in on Maia when we see face offs. Maia will be the bigger man,

Henderson got 0 takedowns in the first 3 rounds, but he managed to win a split decision.
If Maia doesn't get the takedown he will get knocked out, his stand up isn't good and he doesn't like getting hit.

 

[mkess101]

Absolutely. Being loud, controversial, and all over social media works in a lot of instances. I'll give Luca credit for that - he's made sure his name is always in the conversation.



I'm going to assume two things - 1. He places his own bet first. 2. The people buying tout picks aren't very price sensitive. Assume Luca recommends a play at +100 and it's somewhere like -130 to -150 when his subscribers get around to seeing it. My guess is they still play it. Furthermore, it's almost self-fulfilling marketing. It makes his subscribers want to watch closer and be on the ball to get that price. Also, when he is moving a line, I have no doubt that people assign more validity to him. Once you create a following, it's easier to get more followers than when you first started.

Again, I don't follow him at all besides what people post in here. But if his numbers are true on subscriber income and I'm assuming he also has income from advertisers or partnership with books, that's a nice thing to have. A good portion of my income is from the company profit, but I always made sure I had a salary that was plenty to live off of. I'd never want to be a professional gambler without a stream of income besides gambling winnings.

Absolutely. You stated it perfectly. At this point he absolutely makes his play then releases it. Even small line movement can lock up guaranteed profit.

The guy is a fraud and a far less successful bettor than he claims but that doesn't mean he isn't smart. He's carved himself out a nice way to make a living with (now) seemingly little risk.

 

[Sham5916910]

Jeez Sergio's ability to brain fart is staggering.

 

[TimCoreCombat]

Stipe not training full time? That sounds crazy. I was thinking of betting on fight going to the judges, but maybe I should go O3 instead.

That's just not true from Luca. Stipe is a fire fighter for fun. That's like his family. He isn't doing that as his job. He spends a lot of time there but he isn't sitting around a firehouse all day.

 

[TimCoreCombat]

At this rate you may as well just take Maia SUB at +180. If Masvidal's really working on wrestling, Maia will either tap him on the ground or won't achieve anything.

I feel like Maia sub is being greedy. I still think he can grind out a decision so I'm playing it ML.

 

[Stunna77]

Kind of baffled that people are putting so much emphasis on what Mas said hes training. Obviously he will be drilling wrestling, but is the 3 -month camp going to improve his wrestling enough to stop a fantastic chain wrestler? Again people are putting way too much into interviews. THese arent up and coming fighters, both can show minor improvements, but they are who they are at this point. Which skill-set, that you have plenty of footage of, do you trust more? That is the question as lines are close to evens.