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UFC 210 - DC vs AJ 2 - Buffalo

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bunt said:
I'm throwing some units on Jan if the price is right. Cummins isn't getting that much better and his chin has been battered senseless in very fight in the ufc. Jan has bad tdd but hasn't really taken much in the way of damage Cummins has.

Jan will have been improving his tdd and the shots he hit Gus with would have ko'd Cummins three times over.
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Yeah either guy as a dog isn't a bad bet. Jan's striking was looking good vs Gus, he was actually outstriking him. I lean Cummins though, Jan isn't a big enough puncher to expose Cummins' chin so easily and I expect him to get taken and held down.
 
TimCoreCombat said:
Who are your big plays for this event?
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gillespie, burgos, cummins, cote, calvillo are my big plays and super parlay material
not so sure but picking mousasi, emmet and rumble.. will play them too somehow
kamaru, jury and bibu will be too juiced to play.. not worth the risk
staying away from low level wmma fight where are decision is likely (and perhaps a robbery)
 
I know some people here are liking Oliveria and I get it, the number is tempting. I was very high on Brooks when he was coming over from Bellator but he has under performed since being in the UFC. I still believe he is or can be a top 10 LW, I don't think his two UFC fights reflect his talent and potential. I know a lot of people will disagree with me and say that he's overrated but I think you're going to see a great performance from him against Oliveria.

Brooks is very well rounded but it's his heavy top game and wrestling that stands out. Oliveira isn't going to be the bigger guy like he's used to being and I think Brooks beats him anywhere it goes.

Brooks would have won the Cowboy fight too if not for the rib injury, really tough guy to do as well as he did while suffering from it, Brooks is no DNB and he will fight for your money.
 
yeah I think brooks is going to be way bigger, and stronger than olivera. UFC are trying to make an example of him for his continuous missed weight cuts, if anything I'd take the olivera sub line when it's released, maybe rnd 1 sub as he probably has a better chance before they are too slippery and brooks grappling hasn't worn him down.

I think I'll hit brooks if o can get 1.4 on him but hesitant to go lower than that before watching tape.
 
Looks like we might get DC @ + odds. I just rewatched their first fight. Im taking DC for sure after thinking i'd be swerving this one.
 
I have now watched tape on Alves and Cote, and I will probably go a bit big on Alves. Just a couple of thoughts after watching tape.

Cote:
  • Fights at his best when he's the bully
  • Don't mind trading in the pocket because of his chin
  • Does a great job of putting in volume in the clinch/dirty wrestling
  • Usually doesn't set up his punches
  • Throws heavy with the overhand right while keeping his left guard down for potential head kicks
  • Uses more kicks than jabs, and his kicks and kicking technique is SLOW from the beginning
  • Doesn't check kicks at all
Alves:

  • Likes to duck under straight combinations and coming back with overhand right
  • Normally has a good TDD, and fighting to come back up quickly when taken down
  • Pushing with volume when he's behind (Usually good fighting IQ not taking the Kampmann fight into consideration)
  • His all-around kicking arsenal works well against the non checking canadian
  • Training with the good boxer Ponzinibio

Even though Alves has been really inactive and is going back to Welterweight, I feel that this is a really winnable fight for him. The weight cut in the Miller fight drained him alot, and even though he got bullied there, it's not sure he will get bullied by Cote. Cote might be the bigger fighter, but not necessarily the stronger fighter. I think it's pretty safe to say that Cote will focus on the takedowns after noticing the Miller fight. He even said it in a interview. But the thing is if Cote really can bully Alves from the get go. If he stays in the kicking range like he did against Cerrone, his leg will get chewed up. Cote also likes to shoot for the single leg which opens up for Alves knees, and he usually only sets his takedowns up if it's against the fence, and he can throw combinations before shooting.

I think that the new rules could apply really well in this fight favoring Alves. Alves is a fighter who is hard to get down and hold down, and will keep working to get up, so even though Cote is succesful with a takedown, I don't think he will be able to get a lot going on the floor. Alves usually comes back hard with a lot of volume when he get back up, and the new rules could favor Alves with getting volume in vs. takedowns with little to no damage. The hard leg kicks alone from Alves can slow Cote down, and it's a big confidence increase IMO that Alves is training with Ponzinibio, who is alot better in the boxing area than Cote. If Alves stays out of a phonebooth firefight, he has more than the 40% chance that the bookies has given him. IMO it should be more like 55-45 / 50-50 which would be 1,5-2units on Alves if you ask me.
 
MMAJay said:
I have now watched tape on Alves and Cote, and I will probably go a bit big on Alves. Just a couple of thoughts after watching tape.

Cote:
  • Fights at his best when he's the bully
  • Don't mind trading in the pocket because of his chin
  • Does a great job of putting in volume in the clinch/dirty wrestling
  • Usually doesn't set up his punches
  • Throws heavy with the overhand right while keeping his left guard down for potential head kicks
  • Uses more kicks than jabs, and his kicks and kicking technique is SLOW from the beginning
  • Doesn't check kicks at all
Alves:

  • Likes to duck under straight combinations and coming back with overhand right
  • Normally has a good TDD, and fighting to come back up quickly when taken down
  • Pushing with volume when he's behind (Usually good fighting IQ not taking the Kampmann fight into consideration)
  • His all-around kicking arsenal works well against the non checking canadian
  • Training with the good boxer Ponzinibio

Even though Alves has been really inactive and is going back to Welterweight, I feel that this is a really winnable fight for him. The weight cut in the Miller fight drained him alot, and even though he got bullied there, it's not sure he will get bullied by Cote. Cote might be the bigger fighter, but not necessarily the stronger fighter. I think it's pretty safe to say that Cote will focus on the takedowns after noticing the Miller fight. He even said it in a interview. But the thing is if Cote really can bully Alves from the get go. If he stays in the kicking range like he did against Cerrone, his leg will get chewed up. Cote also likes to shoot for the single leg which opens up for Alves knees, and he usually only sets his takedowns up if it's against the fence, and he can throw combinations before shooting.

I think that the new rules could apply really well in this fight favoring Alves. Alves is a fighter who is hard to get down and hold down, and will keep working to get up, so even though Cote is succesful with a takedown, I don't think he will be able to get a lot going on the floor. Alves usually comes back hard with a lot of volume when he get back up, and the new rules could favor Alves with getting volume in vs. takedowns with little to no damage. The hard leg kicks alone from Alves can slow Cote down, and it's a big confidence increase IMO that Alves is training with Ponzinibio, who is alot better in the boxing area than Cote. If Alves stays out of a phonebooth firefight, he has more than the 40% chance that the bookies has given him. IMO it should be more like 55-45 / 50-50 which would be 1,5-2units on Alves if you ask me.
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Hard fight for me to be confident on. I will play the over tho and not Cote ITD. Alves is tough as fuck.
 
MMA Gambling Expert said:
I know some people here are liking Oliveria and I get it, the number is tempting. I was very high on Brooks when he was coming over from Bellator but he has under performed since being in the UFC. I still believe he is or can be a top 10 LW, I don't think his two UFC fights reflect his talent and potential. I know a lot of people will disagree with me and say that he's overrated but I think you're going to see a great performance from him against Oliveria.

Brooks is very well rounded but it's his heavy top game and wrestling that stands out. Oliveira isn't going to be the bigger guy like he's used to being and I think Brooks beats him anywhere it goes.

Brooks would have won the Cowboy fight too if not for the rib injury, really tough guy to do as well as he did while suffering from it, Brooks is no DNB and he will fight for your money.
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I think you're probably right, but it's so hard to lay this kind of juice on Brooks here, especially against a guy as dangerous as Do Bronx. Brooks is a decision machine and like you said, he's been less than impressive in his first two UFC fights. I'm not sure when the injury occurred against BC but Brooks really did nothing in that fight. He had full mount and he took BC's back at the beginning of the second round and couldn't do anything with either one. He also didn't look good in the third round against Pearson.

Oliveira was looking pretty good against Lamas before the guillotine, he had his back and may have had a RNC locked in when the first round ended. There's likely going to be a ton of grappling in the fight and Olives is so sneaky with his subs I wouldn't be surprised to see Brooks get caught in something. At the end of the day, I do favor Brooks but I don't think like his price. I think he needs to prove himself more in the UFC before I can support him as this big of a favorite.
 
Cain hasn't been in the gym

Javier Mendez - “Cain’s been more enjoying time with his wife and he did an AirBnb, those rentals that you rent. He’s got one in Arizona that he’s fixing up to rent, so he’s been doing that and spending time with his wife and his child. He’s been doing more family stuff. He comes in the gym on a rare occasion, but he’s slowly coming back into it. He’s not jumping on board to do anything, he’s just taking his time. I know that May 11 is something they’re looking at, but realistically Cain is not gonna fight on short notice. He’s not gonna fight without an eight-week training camp. So I look at it like if he’s hardly ever coming into the gym now because he has other business things he has to take care of, I don’t see him fighting (soon). I see him fighting two times this year, but I don’t see him fighting in May because of the timeframe.”

 
t6p said:
I think you're probably right, but it's so hard to lay this kind of juice on Brooks here, especially against a guy as dangerous as Do Bronx. Brooks is a decision machine and like you said, he's been less than impressive in his first two UFC fights. I'm not sure when the injury occurred against BC but Brooks really did nothing in that fight. He had full mount and he took BC's back at the beginning of the second round and couldn't do anything with either one. He also didn't look good in the third round against Pearson.

Oliveira was looking pretty good against Lamas before the guillotine, he had his back and may have had a RNC locked in when the first round ended. There's likely going to be a ton of grappling in the fight and Olives is so sneaky with his subs I wouldn't be surprised to see Brooks get caught in something. At the end of the day, I do favor Brooks but I don't think like his price. I think he needs to prove himself more in the UFC before I can support him as this big of a favorite.
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He was on his way to beating Pettis too. He could easily have won the Pettis or Lamas fight. Wonder what the odds would be on this fight if he did snatch a win over Pettis or Lamas...
 
Sham5916910 said:
He was on his way to beating Pettis too. He could easily have won the Pettis or Lamas fight. Wonder what the odds would be on this fight if he did snatch a win over Pettis or Lamas...
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Half of what it is now. :) Im not putting much effort into capping this one, but I do think that Bronx SUB line is worth a stab, considering his high ML, and I find it hard to believe that he can win a decision or KO/TKO. I only see Bronx winning third round if he can slow Brooks down by grappling with him, but then again - If Bronx can get a offence grappling game going, he might stop Brooks anyway.
 
Reddit is saying Rumble looking chunky.

 
MMAJay said:
Half of what it is now. :) Im not putting much effort into capping this one, but I do think that Bronx SUB line is worth a stab, considering his high ML, and I find it hard to believe that he can win a decision or KO/TKO. I only see Bronx winning third round if he can slow Brooks down by grappling with him, but then again - If Bronx can get a offence grappling game going, he might stop Brooks anyway.
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The Chook, Brooks and Alves fights are hard to cap for me so im not watching tape. i did think that about dc but after rewatching their first fight i like dc a lot here.
 
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