UFC 210 - DC vs AJ 2 - Buffalo

[Sham5916910]

I think Burgos makes it look easy, Rosa doesn't impress me at all. Burgos looked like a solid prospect in his debut, sharp hands, high volume and he'll have a 6 inch reach advantage.

I doubt I'll play Lausa, but if I do I'll need at least +500. I'd also like to hear an interview but I'm doubtful I get that, low level camp kills my confidence.

WIll do more research on Hollbrook vs GG, not ruling out Hollbrook yet.

I like burgos but wanted -160. Hes only had one ufc fight yeah he looked good but ground game unproven. Rosa is no gimmie and arguably beat yair. Current price is undeserving.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

I like burgos but wanted -160. Hes only had one ufc fight yeah he looked good but ground game unproven. Rosa is no gimmie and arguably beat yair. Current price is undeserving.

Somewhat true, I took him at -185 and parlayed him with Jury, not thrilled about their prices but I'm very confident in both. Burgos' price may seem undeserving now but come fight time I think he dominates and outworks Rosa easily. I don't rate the Yair performance because it was a super green Yair with no TDD, current Yair would smoke Rosa. And Rosa has not been impressive in his other UFC fights either.

I don't like the layoff for Jury but he's on another level compared to DLT, he'll dominate the grappling and he's more technical standing, seems like his main training partner for this camp was Jeremy Stephens too.

 

[Sham5916910]

Somewhat true, I took him at -185 and parlayed him with Jury, not thrilled about their prices but I'm very confident in both. Burgos' price may seem undeserving now but come fight time I think he dominates and outworks Rosa easily. I don't rate the Yair performance because it was a super green Yair with no TDD, current Yair would smoke Rosa. Burgos has not been impressive in his other UFC fights either.

I don't like the layoff for Jury but he's on another level compared to DLT, he'll dominate the grappling and he's more technical standing, seems like his main training partner for this camp was Jeremy Stephens too.

Jury should smoke him i see a back take and choke. Burgos will be going in my big 6 teamer just want the line to reduce

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Chook vs Aldana
Green vs Emmet
Hollbrook vs GG
Strickland vs Usman

All these lines are too wide IMO

 

[Jamah]

Chook vs Aldana
Green vs Emmet
Hollbrook vs GG
Strickland vs Usman

All these lines are too wide IMO

Don't bet holbrook or green if you don't want to lose money

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Jury should smoke him i see a back take and choke. Burgos will be going in my big 6 teamer just want the line to reduce

I don't see Burgos line getting better than -200, Jury won't get better than -300.

I said "Burgos has not been impressive in his other UFC fights either" I meant Rosa. He arguably lost to Bochniak who had six fights at the time and came in on short notice.

Burgos looked great in his debut, slick hands.

 

[Sham5916910]

I don't see Burgos line getting better than -200, Jury won't get better than -300.

I said "Burgos has not been impressive in his other UFC fights either" I meant Rosa. He arguably lost to Bochniak who had six fights at the time and came in on short notice.

Burgos looked great in his debut, slick hands.

I forgot the kyle fight he couldnt take him down.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Don't bet holbrook or green if you don't want to lose money

We'll see, their numbers are tempting though. Emmet had to work to get that W vs Holtzman who isn't a great wrestler. That was a grinding fight and the wrestling was very competitive. Predator is a way better wrestler, I can see this being very close.

GG may be a great wrestler but it doesn't mean he has great BJJ. Holbrook doesn't mind being on his back at all, he probably wants GG to take him down, on the feet this could be anyone's fight. That Matthews win means something, people underestimate Holbrook. GG's face is all jacked up too, looks like hes' been taking some beatings in the gym.

 

[Jamah]

We'll see, their numbers are tempting though. Emmet had to work to get that W vs Holtzman who isn't a great wrestler. That was a grinding fight and the wrestling was very competitive. Predator is a way better wrestler, I can see this being very close.

GG may be a great wrestler but it doesn't mean he has great BJJ. Holbrook doesn't mind being on his back at all, he probably wants GG to take him down, on the feet this could be anyone's fight. That Matthews win means something, people underestimate Holbrook. GG's face is all jacked up too, looks like hes' been taking some beatings in the gym.

Green gasses pretty badly and he doesn't deal damage, he is a grinder. He might steal a round with his chain wrestling, but I highly doubt that he will win the fight.
Emmett is by far the better stiker, he will destroy Green on the feet, and he isn't a bad wrestler either

 

[BigNick100]

Took a break on the last event, so I'm refreshed and ready for this event. My picks for UFC 210

Underdog pick -
Weidman - Moose will get put on his back at some point I believe. Weidman is hungry for the fight and he looks in very good shape, to the point of people saying he looks like he is taking PED's. I will be betting Weidman ML, Weidman DEC, and going big on fight goes the distance because I don't believe either Moose or Weidman will finish each other.

Brooks - I think Brooks has under performed in his UFC career, and I look for him to take it to Oliveira.

Magomed

Gregor Gillespie

Those are my 4.

I am looking at Strickland as well, I have always been impressed with him and I am going to do some more research but I am tempted to bet Strickland.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Green gasses pretty badly and he doesn't deal damage, he is a grinder. He might steal a round with his chain wrestling, but I highly doubt that he will win the fight.
Emmett is by far the better stiker, he will destroy Green on the feet, and he isn't a bad wrestler either

I know but Emmet gassed pretty bad himself last fight. I wouldn't say he's a far better striker. Emmet is well rounded but he's not great at anything, a win over Tuck means nothing, Tuck literally does nothing in fights and gasses, I can't believe I bet him against Brown and he lost.

Holtzman is an ok athlete with a well rounded skillset and his fight with Emmet was very competitive. I see Greens wrestling, and athleticism giving him the edge. Will do more research, line is off for sure though, Emmet isn't that good.

 

[Jamah]

I know but Emmet gassed pretty bad himself last fight. I wouldn't say he's a far better striker. Emmet is well rounded but he's not great at anything, a win over Tuck means nothing, Tuck literally does nothing in fights and gasses, I can't believe I bet him against Brown and he lost.

Holtzman is an ok athlete with a well rounded skillset and his fight with Emmet was very competitive. I see Greens wrestling, and athleticism giving him the edge. Will do more research, line is off for sure though, Emmet isn't that good.

I wanted Emmet at -150 , -210 is ridiculous
He gassed because it was a grinding fight, but he managed to outstrike Hotzman and hurt him a couple of times.
Tell me if you change your mind after your research

 

[Oblivian]

Does anyone remember Green gassing besides his last fight? I don't really remember him having a major issue with it at all and he's been in 5 rounders. I assumed he must have had a god awful weight cut in the last one.

In regards to Gillespie, does he have a decent gas tank? As I've mentioned before, I'm not a fan of Holbrook, but he will make you work and he is great at making it look like he's far more effectively offensively than he really is. Judges like his style.

 

[t6p]

Does anyone remember Green gassing besides his last fight? I don't really remember him having a major issue with it at all and he's been in 5 rounders. I assumed he must have had a god awful weight cut in the last one.

In regards to Gillespie, does he have a decent gas tank? As I've mentioned before, I'm not a fan of Holbrook, but he will make you work and he is great at making it look like he's far more effectively offensively than he really is. Judges like his style.

His cardio looked strong to me in the Franca fight. The 3rd round was his best round of the fight, the judges gave him 10-8s across the board, albeit Franca may have been gassed himself. The big difference for me is that Franca made Gillespie work hard for most of his takedowns (5 of 19 in the fight), whereas Holbrook will basically allow himself to be taken down. Gillespie's gas tank shouldn't be an issue IMO.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Does anyone remember Green gassing besides his last fight? I don't really remember him having a major issue with it at all and he's been in 5 rounders. I assumed he must have had a god awful weight cut in the last one.

In regards to Gillespie, does he have a decent gas tank? As I've mentioned before, I'm not a fan of Holbrook, but he will make you work and he is great at making it look like he's far more effectively offensively than he really is. Judges like his style.

Apparently he had a bad weight cut last fight and didn't rehydrate properly. His cardio has looked ok in the past, his style is very physically taxing, a lot of wrestling. He's going to make Emmet work, I expect him to do much better than Holtzman did in the wrestling.

Agree 100% about Holbrook and the judges too. He's winning fights off his back just because of activity. Nijim got robbed for sure but I understand why the judges gave it to Holbrook. If GG takes him down he is putting himself in danger of getting swept or subbed, Holbrook will be active.

 

[MMAJay]

Does anyone remember Green gassing besides his last fight? I don't really remember him having a major issue with it at all and he's been in 5 rounders. I assumed he must have had a god awful weight cut in the last one.

In regards to Gillespie, does he have a decent gas tank? As I've mentioned before, I'm not a fan of Holbrook, but he will make you work and he is great at making it look like he's far more effectively offensively than he really is. Judges like his style.

After watching tape it looks like Green has cardio for 3-5 rounds, but only because he's SO inactive. He only does some takedowns to win rounds, but that wont go with the new rules as well. If he fought the same pace as Emmett did last fight, he will be done after 1,5 rounds. Im very unimpressed with Green. He has one weapon, and that's the takedown over and over again.

Gillespie has a very good gas tank. He can wrestle for days IMO. Holbrook can make Gillespie work, but besides the transitions from Holbrook, I see Gillespie being a step in front all the time. I wanted him at a much better price, but I still took some action on -200. I will give GG close to 80% with a 20% chance of a Holbrook SUB.

 

[Oblivian]

The thing is that I don't think Holbrook's ground game is that good either though. I think he just makes it appear it's better than it is. He's the type of guy that will hold a submission that isn't there, and judges think it's a legit sub attempt. He's got the cardio to get away with it too. I think his hustle and showmanship is what works for him, and that will be magnified under the new rule set.

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

The thing is that I don't think Holbrook's ground game is that good either though. I think he just makes it appear it's better than it is. He's the type of guy that will hold a submission that isn't there, and judges think it's a legit sub attempt. He's got the cardio to get away with it too. I think his hustle and showmanship is what works for him, and that will be magnified under the new rule set.

He also struggled with the pressure Franca was bringing and Holbrook brings pressure in spades. Granted, Franca had a gigantic size and reach advantage in that fight. I have no idea how that guy was making 155, he was seriously enormous. It looked like a WW fighting a FW. He could land his right straight from halfway across the cage.

Still so pissed I missed out on -140 for the over. I was literally sitting at my comp, refreshing the odds all damn day long. I thought, surely if they're not out by 11:00 pm east coast then they won't be out tonight at all. I take 45 minutes to cook some food and wham, already fucked.

Oh well, it's all in the game.

 

[TimCoreCombat]

As someone who does not work as a lawyer but have a law degree from one of the best Swedish law schools (I guess something like top50 in Europe) I just assumed everything about this was a joke.

I know some states (California, mostly) has some retarded law's when it comes to this kind of stuff, but since it's clearly a joke, it'd be super hard to prove damages and it's a random forum on the internet it just seems fairly obvious that it's a april's fool kind of deal.

I've been practicing for ten years. There are a ton of defenses to those suits including the ultimate defense of truth. Rarely do they ever hit pay dirt and I live in one of the most plaintiff friendly states in the country.

 

[MMAJay]

He also struggled with the pressure Franca was bringing and Holbrook brings pressure in spades. Granted, Franca had a gigantic size and reach advantage in that fight. I have no idea how that guy was making 155, he was seriously enormous. It looked like a WW fighting a FW. He could land his right straight from halfway across the cage.

Still so pissed I missed out on -140 for the over. I was literally sitting at my comp, refreshing the odds all damn day long. I thought, surely if they're not out by 11:00 pm east coast then they won't be out tonight at all. I take 45 minutes to cook some food and wham, already fucked.

Oh well, it's all in the game.

I was awake until 3:30 am last night, and thought I could go to bed with the lines getting released today. I woke up with a alert about the released lines. Pretty frustrating to wait half a night and then getting screwed