I know I am repeating others but Dills ground game is really good and if Lineker is careless when trying to stand up from the TD I think TJ could easily get that rear naked choke. This is why id be careful with the over 2.5.
It seems that you already picked your side, but im gonna say it anyway. I think that the grappling is close to 50/50 in this fight. Yeah, TJ got good wrestling combined with slick grappling, but Lineker has improved ALOT in his ground game. Recently got his Black Belt, and it's just a fact that he's got a pretty good guilotine that than come into play if TJ rushes his double leg TD's. If you have watched tape, you must have noticed how Lineker actually uses pretty technical grappling to reverse on the floor or getting up. I was worried when I rewatched the ALI fight because it's exactly the same way TJ can win over Lineker, just with more tools. But you also have to think about how long ago that fight was, and Lineker pretty much forced Ali to wrestle because of his power that he showed Ali.
If you just go skill for skill, TJ has the edge in most areas except Power. BUT you simply can't negate that Lineker has improved as a fighter as well. TJ has the best improved footwork and striking IMO, when you consider that his background is wrestling, BUT he still had some "problems" at some points with Assuncao hitting him and keeping TJ on his backfoot. Im pretty sure that if Assuncao had some success, Lineker will most likely have success too.
We have just seen it so many times that a hard shot can change the gameplan of a fighter and the course of the fight as well. This is where Lineker will shine. We know he has the cardio to pressure for 3 rounds straight. He will be the guy coming forward all the time. TJ WILL have to think about not getting caught up against the cage. His fighting "mentality" will most likely be thinking alot about defence, where he was the one, in his other fights, that could think about having the overview and setting up his offence.
If you go skill for skill it's one thing, but when you think about other factors such as judge friendly style, 3 round pressure, granite chin (frustration from TJ when he can't hurt Lineker and he keeps coming forward) and Lineker not willing to let his opponent breathe, the fight COULD look a lot different. That's why I have to go with the hungry dog here. Just too much value to miss in this one. Would hate myself if I payed the juice and lost on TJ, while knowing it's okay if I go for the value on Lineker and I know that he could very well loose.
Styles makes fights, and you cannot deny that Lineker's style has put all his opponents into deep water fights.