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UFC 207 - Nunes vs Rousey - Vegas

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I still hit -125 on that line. Can't go as hard as I want without + odds but I dropped 1.25u on that
 


Is anyone else enticed by the Cruz SUB at 7.5? Garbarant is untested on the ground and at the BJJ scout video points out, he's obviously drilled counter takedowns off that lead hook. He went for hooks multiple times in the Faber fight and I can just imagine that he would love nothing more than to "simulate death" against a member of Team Alpha Male.
 


Is anyone else enticed by the Cruz SUB at 7.5? Garbarant is untested on the ground and at the BJJ scout video points out, he's obviously drilled counter takedowns off that lead hook. He went for hooks multiple times in the Faber fight and I can just imagine that he would love nothing more than to "simulate death" against a member of Team Alpha Male.


7.5 is better than we have on 5d. we're under 6.0 on 5d. it's not bad. but meh.. when's the last time dom subbed anyone.. before lines opened i hoped to be able to stab at a +1000 line etc
 
He's certainly starting to show the Brick Top traits.. the way he uses profanity in his posts, constantly changing his avatar etc. He can only hide it so long lol.
kinda doubt it. robbie had better input
 
7.5 is better than we have on 5d. we're under 6.0 on 5d. it's not bad. but meh.. when's the last time dom subbed anyone.. before lines opened i hoped to be able to stab at a +1000 line etc

Fair enough, but it's enough to prevent me going for the decision line. I'm sure Cruz will want to investigate Cody for any weakness, and I feel the odds don't reflect the lack of evidence we have there.
 
First time ive listened to fury his means cowboy bd is awful. He said cowboy is the more technical striker lol. He said means doesnt kick when he actually throws a really effective teep a lot. And he expects cowboy to stand with means lol. He clearly watched little footage as cowboy has only stood in two fights and both guys had awful standup. No idea how he can suggest he has such a read on cowboys standup from those two fights. Awful bd. He ultimately picked means but man watch fuckin tape you douche.

Yeah, Luca's analysis is atrocious.

I don't know, I don't think Ronda is going to unravel psychologically. Guess it depends what we mean by that. I mean, she fought like a moron against Holm but she didn't have any quit in her. Amanda could KO her, no doubt, but I don't think it will because of weak psychology. It will be because she listens to her idiot coach and thinks she can strike with Amanda. If Ronda fights smart and tries to clinch, throw and sub Amanda, I think she wins 8 of 10 times. But it's a big if fighting out of that gym.

I keep thinking about how Ronda said she was out on her feet after the first punch Holly landed jarred her teeth loose and stunned her. In her ESPN interview after the fight she said she was in the corner wondering why she was spitting on the floor rather than in the bucket and just generally mentally out of it.

You can obviously see she looked drunk out there falling down and shit, but even then she still rocked Holm with a punch and took her down at another point. If you put recency bias aside with the Tate fight, Nunes beat a smaller Shevchenko and actually got tossed around by her in the later rounds, TKO'd a can in Baszler and beat McMann who is about as up and down as they come.

I'm not sold on Nunes at all. She is in the same 'has to land a big right hand' position as some of the others on this card and not 1 opponent of Rousey's has avoided the takedown or clinch yet.

My previous point was, I don't think Cowboy will be too blown away by Means stand up, but I do agree that he will look to clinche, and that makes me pause as I'm unsure how that will work out against Means, who has a straight up nasty clinch. I also wonder if he is able to get Means to the ground, whether means will get back up, I can't recall him having the best get up's (please point me to a fight that proves me wrong if not the case)

I'm actually surprised there's so much debate about this fight. If you watch Means' last 4 fights, he typically just stands right back up when taken down, especially against the fence. Oliveira is also going to have to deal with intercepting elbows and short inside shots if he wants to clinch. There's a high chance he could get cut badly and have to deal with a bloody mask the rest of the fight.

Also worth noting is Means' patience. The guy is calculated and will take his time picking his shots and chipping away. He doesn't waste energy and is highly efficient. He's good at checking leg kicks to guard his skinny frame as well.

I also question Cowboy's heart. The guy pulled a Sage/Barberena and instantly tapped to a triangle that still had space and his arm underneath Cerrone on the opposite side (the Roger Gracie defense). He didn't even remotely entertain the idea of escaping or trying to defend despite being in position to do so.

Buuuuut this is MMA and I might pay for this when Oliveira lands a spinning back kick KO out of no where.
 


Is anyone else enticed by the Cruz SUB at 7.5? Garbarant is untested on the ground and at the BJJ scout video points out, he's obviously drilled counter takedowns off that lead hook. He went for hooks multiple times in the Faber fight and I can just imagine that he would love nothing more than to "simulate death" against a member of Team Alpha Male.

Was thinking about this last night. Cody's an emotional fighter and I've no doubt he's taking that into the cage with him. Can easily see him bullrushing Cruz from the off looking for the big KO. Granted Dominic isn't a finisher but the sub opportunity will be there.
 
TJ decision -115. Something tells me I won't get + odds so I hit that to win 1.5u for now

Full props are going up
 
I just think means puts a lot of pressure on himself to be the next big thing. I dont see him going out and having fun which is how both cowboys fight. Just what i have seen from interviews...totally intangible.
 
I just think means puts a lot of pressure on himself to be the next big thing. I dont see him going out and having fun which is how both cowboys fight. Just what i have seen from interviews...totally intangible.

I think you're right. Just in that podcast alone he said being broke is scarier than standing across from a guy in the cage, talks about his time in jail, and we know he was addicted to meth in the past. I think fighting is his lifeline and while it may be fun, its incredibly serious for him because it's been his only way out.

I tend to like this attitude more than the goofy smile and dancing down the aisle as he makes his entrance Oliveira style, though. Only Jacare can do that shit and crush people.
 
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